Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:26 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:47 PM 6/26/2004

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John Carty
Kent Fox
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Daron Letts
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Andy Scott

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Fredericton (90.7%)
Hon. Andy Scott
Fundy-Royal (9.3%)
John Herron

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,151 37.78%
12,185 30.38%
9,753 24.32%
2,787 6.95%
228 0.57%

(148/148 polls, 57889/57889 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(20/195 polls, 5945/55106 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 CN
Email: [hidden]
Kent Fox will take this riding easily by at least 3,000 votes. This is traditional conservative country and the vote was split between the PC's and reform/alliance last few elections.
I did an informal lawn sign survey around 3 neighborhoods and can say that blue signs outnumber red signs by 4 to 1. This can be interepreted many ways I suppose but draw your own conclusion. In fact, in some locations there are no red signs to be had. Maybe Andy's team didn't focus on sign support this time? Who knows, but its interesting to see the publicised support for the conservatives. Kent's campaign team seems to be very organized and active. Carty seems to have more lawn signs out than Andy Scott and the NDP seem to be more well received here. Talking politics around coffee break there are many that I suspect are swing voters just not knowing what to do. Some have said they'd vote NDP in protest and some might even spoil their ballot on purpose. It's a confusing mess but this does not look good for Andy Scott regaining his seat.
I don't predict a close race. I do predict that Mr. Fox will be the first declared conservative seat in New Brunswick.
24/06/04 DS
Email: [hidden]
I was at the candidates' debate for Fredericton last night. Of the four participants, the NDP and Green party candidates each made excellent contributions to the dialogue, and at the end essentially threw their support to the Liberal candidate, Andy Scott, who also did quite well in the debate. Kent Fox, the Conservative candidate, was unable to give his position on marijuana, misunderstood his own party's stance on First Nations, and at one point railed against Brian Mulroney, thus alienating a good number of the Progressive Conservatives in the audience. After hearing that Mr. Fox was not going to attend the other debates for the rest of the election campaign, I at first wondered why. After last night's performance, I no longer have to wonder. I predict that Mr. Scott will keep his seat, with a comfortable margin of victory.
24/06/04 T.S.
Email: [hidden]
Liberal support here is firming up as the campaign heads down the home stretch. The Conservatives did Kent Fox no favour by botching the press release over the weekend. Harper made the mistake of showing his true colours and that will drive much of the undecided vote to Andy Scott on election day.
20/06/04 H.B.
Email: [hidden]
This is definately going to be one to watch on election night. As of right now im leaning towards giving this one to the liberals, with alot of help from strategic voting by people concerned about the CPCs right wing views trying to keep this riding out of the hands of the conservatives. Carty is a great candidate for the NDP but I think the people of this riding realize that Andy Scott is about as left an MP as Fredericton is ever going to get. CPC's Fox has yet to impress me, he isn't a good debater or public speaker from what I have seen, and he doesn't appear approachable, which is a must for any politician. This ones already started to get ugly, I can't wait for mondays debate, lets just hope Kent shows up. Liberals by a hair.
15/06/04 D.M.
Email: [hidden]
I have been in the Fredericton several times during the election and things are not looking good for Andy Scott. Kent Fox is running a solid, well organized campaign, and it's clear that the vast majority of the Alliance and PC supporters are working well together. The small percentage of Clark loyalists who may drift to Scott are not enough to make up for the socially conservative Liberals who are moving to Fox because of Scott's controversial decision to back gay marriage. This one won't even be close.
13/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I say that Andy Scott will go down in a bot of irony. As he won this seat in 2000 due to vote-splitting on the right. This time he will lose due to vote-splitting on the left as Carty is making his name known here. This will allow Kent Fox to come up the middle.
10/06/04 FB
Email: [hidden]
Scott has never commanded respect in the riding. The only reason he won is due to vote splitting between the PCs and Reform. Scott's constant waffling and cow-towing to the leader of the day has not gone unnoticed by the voters. With the Liberal national campaign floundering, and the sponsorship scandal still in everyone's mind, previous Liberal voters are looking elswhere for a change.
28/05/04 Rigs
Email: [hidden]
Scott not a strong campaigner, substantial personal baggage.
NDP: best candidate in this riding for them ever.
Look at the percentages in the last election.
CPC Fox is winning the sign war, this one goes to the blues.
23/05/04 Stevo
This will be perhaps the second-most hotly contested riding in Atlantic Canada, after Kings-Hants in Nova Scotia. It is known that Frederiction is on the Conservative "Blue List" of winnable ridings, and they would very much like to snatch this significant urban centre (relatively speaking, of course) away from the Liberals. However, with virtually all polls showing the Liberals with a massive lead in Atlantic Canada with numbers around the 50% mark, combined with the continuing unease with Stephen Harper in this part of the country, I can't see this riding falling to the Tories. However, as we've all seen, federal politics in Canada at this time are extraordinarily unpredictable and a very weak Liberal campaign could very easily yield many surprise Liberal defeats across the country.
23/05/04 KB
Email: [hidden]
Andy Scott will lose. He has alienated a large portion of the area's church going crowd - and while that may not seem significant to some - Fredericton does have a large Protestant/Catholic core who will take offence to his moral position. Combine that with the Liberal waffling of recent months, and you have a good recipe for Scott's defeat. This has been a good area for Conservatives in the past, and the opportunity is there for the CPC to take advantage. I believe if you asked local Liberals (off the record) - they would tell you that they are sensing a defeat as well. Be ready - western and southern NB are going CPC.
19/05/04 mere Boulard
Email: [hidden]
Why not? My gut instinct says the liberal support base will prevail, but its a tough call in light of the past years events. There will be throwback to the conservative alliance, if Fox can convince people that he's credible. That may require a strategic adjustment since one of his hand-picked issues, the abolishment of the gun registry, is dead in the water as of this afternoon. Carty is intelligent has worked in community development, and if he demonstrates this effectively it would certainly boost the NDP's support in fredericton, if not secure a victory.
15/05/04 Irish Observer
Email: [hidden]
If The Analyst is so keen to know, I am from Carleton County, and participated in every Provincial/Federal election in York County, Sunbury County and Fredericton since 1974. So I have some experience in the results and voter dispositions and attitudes in those areas. As for the numbers, I did not make them up the voters do and to consider fredericton "Tory Town" does ot the same dis-service that the Hatfield Conservatives did from 1982-1987 by considering it some uniform mass of Conservative voters. Small "c" conservative maybe, but with the exception of the Theriault fiasco of 1999 these votres are not for simple taking. Liberal squeaker.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
After doing some careful research into federal and provincial elections, I've come to the conclusion that the CPC is just not strong enough to win here. CPC numbers in eastern Canada are in flux, jumping from 40% to 20% over a few days, then back again, depending on the polling firm. This tells me support here for the CPC is soft, while Liberal support (at a constant 40%) seems to be more solid. I therefore feel that this riding will elect a Liberal. The CPC has failed to impress, and while their numbers have not bottomed out, they have not broken new heights either here in the east.
Mr.Scott will have another term.
12/05/04 Patrick Webber
Email: gtfzy@stu.ca
If Kent Fox's campaign is reving up as "full name" claims it is, then why does he not even have a campaign office yet? Moreover, most people I talk to don't even know who he is,let alone that he is the Conservative candidate. Most people have not meet him, and he dosen't even press the flesh at the Boyce Market on Saturday mornings, a must for any ambitious politician in this city.
Kent Fox's event at STU was only known and attended by party faithful, and STU is not a left-wing campus in comparison to other universities in Canada. The student body is more left-wing than at UNB, but then again were isn't it more left-wing than UNB?
While I agree with your comments about previous NDP candidates in Fredericton (champaign socialists from George St.), John Carty is no such candidate. He is the director of the local SPCA, has done numerous work in overseas development and other volunteer work, doesn't own a Volvo and he lives on the Northside. Plus, your assertion that the NDP has never been a factor in Fredericton federally or provincially is out of date. In the 2003 N.B. election that three NDP candidates in Fredericton got 16%, 22.5%, and 23% respectively. When 1/5 of Fredericton is voting NDP, they are not a non-factor, especially in a supposed close race such as this.
As far as the Greens go, Frederictonians has shown a willingness in the past to vote for new or unconventional parties. Fredericton North went CoR in the 1991 provincial election, while Greg Hargrove ran under the Confederation of Regions Western Party in 1988 and won 2,700 votes. Hardly any Frederictonians probably ever heard of the Reform Party in 1990, but by 1993 almost 8,000 of them voted for it. Plus, the Greens are to the right of the NDP on most issues (which will make their candidate Darron Letts appear confused), meaning that old Liberals or PCs may park their votes there. I'm not saying that the Greens will win, but they could garner 5%, something that may impact the outcome of this race.
11/05/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
1. Daron Letts is running for the Green Party, according to its website. Yes, that makes him the most "interesting" candidate.
2. John Carty's background is with the SPCA in Fredericton. Just because you never heard of him doesn't mean he doesn't have a profile.
3. Couple of dozen? Sorry to tell you, full name, at least a half dozen of those were members of the campus NDP club, waiting for their own meeting to begin elsewhere on campus. Who knows how many Liberals were there. The NDP has been having campus meetings every two weeks, often with a dozen attendees. I'm not saying that this is determinative of outcome in this election, or necessarily impressive, but if that's the greatest boast you have for Fox, his campaign doesn't have the momentum I thought it did.
08/05/04 full name
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
Kent Fox's campaign is starting to rev up. He held a meeting at STU a few weeks back that attracted the largest turnout ever by a Conservative on campus (granted, it was only a couple dozen, but on a campus as left-wing as STU, it's a start.) In 1997 and 2000 the PCs didn't even hold their nomination meeting until well after the writ was dropped; and Reform/CA didn't really have much of an organization here; so Fox is already off to a head-start compared to then. I've said it before: Scott only won in 1997 and 2000 off the split, and he can't count on too many Red Tories joining ship because there aren't many of them here. Comparing the Tories' fortunes in southwest and central NB to the rest of the Maritimes is like apples and oranges for that very reason. It wouldn't be unreasonable to predict a Tory sweep of this part of the province, no matter how they do elsewhere in the region.
As for John Carty being a "formidable" candidate, I've never heard of him and neither has anyone I talked to. Seems like a classic case of the NDP nominating one of those champagne socialists and then being surprised that nobody beyond campus or Golf Club Road cares. The NDP has never been a factor in Fredericton, federally or provincially, and I don't see anything to suggest it will change this time around. Most people here have never even heard of the Green party, let alone support them.
07/05/04 Patrick Webber
Email: gtfzy@StThomasU.ca
This one is still too close to call. Only the NDP has opened up a campaign office, and there are little other signs of election preparation going on in the riding. Kent Fox appears to be trying to win the riding by stealth. He likely realizes that the Harper Conservatives will have a series of struggles winning votes in the Maritimes, and is keeping most of the elements of his platform quiet until election day, hoping that hatred of the Liberals will prompt a knee-jerk mass vote for him. He has done almost no campaigning apart from a few leaflet drops. John Carty is a formidable candidate for the New Democrats. His family is well-known and respected in the area, and many people intend to vote for him moresp than NDP. The race will be made even more interesting by the presence of a Green Party candidate, rumored to be local activist Darron Letts. Letts is a bit of a hothead, however, and will likely alienate more voters than attract. The impact that the! Greens will have on Liberal and NDP votes, and the possibility of a strong showing by John Carty will decide the outcome of this election. Kent Fox's only hope of winning is if the other three split things realatively evenly.
04/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
In the center of the bible-belt, this riding has a big chance of going blue. Originally, I had assumed the CPC could not do well in Atlantic Canada, polls are showing otherwise. A good candidate here can even win, as the sitting MP's feelings about gay marriage seem at odds with the majority of the voters here. This will be a riding to watch.
03/05/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
I am not sure where Irish Observer is from, but s/he clearly doesn't understand the dynamics of Fredericton (known as "Tory Town" in New Brunswick political circles).
The Tories in Fredericton aren't particularly red. S/He forgets that in the 1991 provincial election many Fredericton-area seats went to CoR, the Reform-esque, anti-French, hard-right party that formed the Official Opposition from 1991-1995. In fact, of the 8 seats CoR won, 6 where wholly or in part inside of this federal riding.
Also, although the old PC party rarely got more than 50% of the vote, he ignores the fact that the Tories held this seat from 1957 until 1993 during the Tory melt-down. Since then it has been won due to vote splitting. There was a nail-biter in 1997 (34% Lib to 30% PC to 22% Ref) and, in 2000, most explain the Liberal win due mostly to the fact that the PC Party nominated an ethnic minority and the (clearly not red) Tories flocked in large numbers to both the Liberals, CA or stayed at home.
Also, how did the old PC Party win with less than 50% of the vote all of these times? The same way the Conservatives will win in 2004. Since the late 60s/70s the NDP consistantly gets 10-15% of the vote (this town is a unique mix of the Conservative-minded New Brunswick elite and 10,000ish university students). Only in 1993 (huge NDP meltdown) and 2000 (when the NDP went to the Liberals out of fear of a CA win) has the NDP vote slipped below 10%. The Conservatives can win with 45% (or perhaps less) which they will almost certainly get.
19/04/04 Irish Observer
Email: [hidden]
The "conservative's" may be rubbing their hands over this seat, but only twice in recent electoral history have the conservatives gathered over 50% of the vote. In 1979 and 1984 when the Liberal's had very weak candidates.
The Liberals have consistently been able to muster a minimum of 35 % of the vote. Given the "red" nature of the tories in this seat it is inconceivable that the vote will combine to over 54%. The likely result is that some strategic NDP voting with the Liberals to keep out the Conservatives and some of the red Tory vote going Liberal will enable Andy Scott to be returned. The winner will only need 40% of the vote, and Andy Scott is only about 5% ponts away.
16/04/04 Clinton P. Desveaux
Email: vf750f@hotmail.com
Conservatives will pick up this seat and win at least 51% of the vote here, slam dunk game over. Look at the results here in 1993, 1997, 2000, and now in 2004 the vote split is no longer a problem and the Grits are sliding slowly before the election has even been called.
20/03/04 david tudor
Email: [hidden]
the CA had a respectible showing the last fereral election. the anti-harper bias is less pronounced than here than in other east-coast areas. the ndp are increasing support and andy has made many well organized foes with his deciding vote with the gay marrage issue. as well the CA brass have shown up at several community events in the last several years. the combined pc/ca vote will easily past the liberals post sponsorship scandal.
19/03/04 full name
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
The early local indication is that it's going to be close. Andy Scott has been an effective MP, but that's balanced community-involvement factor is balanced by the APEC affair and the sponsorship scandal. Social conservatives could stay away from him in droves over the same-sex marriage issue.
Kent Fox won the Conservative nomination over former MLA Eric Mackenzie. He might be the "anti-everything-Liberal" candidate, but except for the university area, that could very well work here. Remember, the Alliance in 2000 and Reform in 1997 captured just enough votes for Scott to win off the split. Barring a screw up, he'll keep it close. The combined PC-CA vote should be strong enough to give him the victory. The number of red Tories and conservative Liberals switching parties should negate each other. The NDP is, as always, a non-factor in Fredericton.
18/03/04 Jmillard
Email: [hidden]
This seat will stay a Liberal seat. Andy Scott has represented Fredericton well, and has garnered lots of attention for Fredericton in Ottawa. His new job as Minister of Instrastructure will help build his support. The local candidate is Kent Fox, who did not succeed well at one of his few initiatives, running the local Exhibition center. Kent Fox has no policy whatsoever, rather he has a " against everything Liberal " policy. Andy Scott will win this because he is a strong representative of Fredericton in Ottawa.
In reference to Mr Scott's scandal, it is a well known fact in Fredericton that Mr. Scott did not step down because he was guilty of the accusations. Mr. Scott stepped down because his credibility was being questioned since accusations, even if they are false, still cause long-term damage.
18/03/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
Too early to call this one. Any lose of centre-left votes to the NDP could tip this seat. Scott better hope there are some former PCs who can't stomach the new party.
17/03/04 Eddy Cutler
Email: [hidden]
A likely Liberal hold, but the NDP could end up a spoiler if they nominate a strong candidate such as Penny Ericsson. If the NDP can move its numbers here up into the 15-20% range (not impossible with a good candidate) they might tip this seat to the Conservatives.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We have to disagree with the posting by Nick. This was one of the Alliace's best bet in NB, and they did relativly well. Though the PC did better and if you combine the votes they did beat out the Liberals. We feel it's unlikely that many votes will swing to the Liberals with the current scandals and other nonsense going on. We're giving the nod to the Conservatives for now, but it's still a possible Liberal win.
17/03/04 V.D.
Email: Bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'd say this riding is too close to call at this point. The combined conservative vote is was 54%, and though one can't make any assumptions about voting, one can't assume the red tories will leave and vote liberal either. The conservatives have nominated their candidate, i do not know much about him, but Andy Scott is known for his past scandal, so it could go either way...
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Andy Scott's run of good luck has come to an end. Fredricton will go Tory Blue this time, subject to the tories coming up with a strong candidate.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
My gut feeling tells me that Scott will retain his seat (my home riding as well), yet I'm not calling it yet. Scott's ability to be re-elected will be decided by two factors. One is how many of those PC votes from 2000 were Red Tory votes that would go Liberal, and the strength of the NDP candidate. Scott will definitely play up the fact that he took a beating from a constituent for his pro-stance on gay marriage as an attempt to lure soft-NDP votes. Scott's Conservative challenger will be Kent Fox, a local businessman. The nomination meeting had over 1000 people attend, so the Conservatives are not a minor force here. One to watch in New Brunswick on election night.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This was one of the best ridings for the alliance, but it's just for that reason that I think the Liberals will win. The people who voted PC were mostly red tories, so I presume, as the "blue" tories would have voted for the Alliance. The liberals have the incumbant advantage here, I think Mr.Scott has been returned to the cabinet, and his scandal (I remember there was one, but forgot what it was) has been forgotten by most. This riding will go Liberal, but tories will beleive they can win, making for an exciting battle.

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