Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:53 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:53 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Mike Allen
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Scott Jones
Jason Mapplebeck
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Andy Savoy

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
New Brunswick Southwest (8.6%)
Greg Thompson
Tobique-Mactaquac (91.4%)
Andy Savoy

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,708 33.80%
11,225 32.41%
10,428 30.11%
1,273 3.68%
0 0.00%

New Brunswick Southwest
(14/149 polls, 4519/45336 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(155/155 polls, 47727/47727 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Pierre Cyr
Email: pax@nbnet.nb.ca
Im on the NDP campign in this riding and unlike the 2000 campaign we now have a candidate who is both young and well educated ( political science major) and is in fact actively campaigning which was pretty much not the case in 2000. I dont expect a first time win but the feedback and level of cynicism about both major parties and especially the triple whammy of the provincial conservatives on health care, automobile insurance, and the 2 billion $ Coleson Cove scandal is going to weigh heavily on the traditionally conservative riding. The Liberals should do well but dont be surprised if the NDP gains at least 10% of the vote and thus a good footing for the next election to build on which would represent about a tripling of the vote count from the 2000 campaign. I expect the Conservative vote to severely melt vs the combined count of 60%. I wouldnt be surprised if it amounted to the mostly strong right wing religious element and some gun issue enthusiast and came up to about 30%-35% tops. It will be a close race.
24/06/04 Forgotten Majority
Email: [hidden]
T/M will go conservative because this is the Bible belt of N.B. and is well to the right of the Liberals on many issues. Paul Martin has moved his party so far to the left especially since the beginning of the campaign that many blue liberals will be voting conservative this time. As far as the sign war goes, signs on road sides and right of ways mean nothing and Mr. Allen has far more signs on people's lawns where it really counts.
20/06/04 Humble Guy
Email: [hidden]
Saw the candidates last night on CSPAN. Liberal Andy Savoie made me proud to be from NB. His comments displayed the strong social values of the Liberal Party and a thoughtful analysis of his parties contributions to the Saint John Valley since he has been in office. The young student running for the NDP was polite, smart and had well thoughtout opinions on the campaign issues. The Conservative candidate really had nothing to say on the large number of issues Paul Martin is speaking out on. All he could say was his party would do a better job than the Liberals. Looks like a Liberal win again.
13/06/04 Buck
Email: [hidden]
I was sure that Andy Savoy would be defeated until I drove through the riding last week. He is winning the sign war by a large margin and his campaign is apparently doing well on the ground. However, Savoy needs a strong Martin performance in the debates to ensure victory.
13/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Bernard Lord's health-care announcement last week hit three federal ridings especially hard: Fred'town, Miramichi and Tobique. All three were on the Conservatives hit-list. Bernie just bought the two Andies and the Charlie tickets back to Ottawa. Thompson will be the only Conservative left standing in NB.
28/05/04 Étudiant en Science Politique
Bonjour, Je crois que Andy Savoy va gagner cette circonscription. La circonscription provinciale de Grand-Sault vote en majorité pour le parti libéral. En effet, cette même circonscription est un château fort pour les libéraux au niveau provincial. En plus, M. Savoy est originaire du comté de Victoria, donc les gens de ce comté vont voté en majorité pour M. Savoy, non seulement en raison de son lieu de demeure, mais aussi en raison des fermetures d'hopitaux dans le comté. Quant au comté de Carleton. Cette région est très conservatrice de tradition. Encore, avec le mécontentement des gens dans région pour la fermeture des hopitaux peut avoir une vague de changement de parti. M. Savoy réflècte les les valeurs de ces gens dans les sujets de mariages homosexuels et aussi l'enregistrement des armes à feu. Le sud de la circonscription sera un peu plus difficile à gagner en raison du candidat PC. Lui qui demeure dans la région de Mactaquac aura probablement une majorité des voix dans cette région. Mais cette région est beaucoup plus faible en population que celle de Woodstock à Grand-Sault. Cette circonscription avec près de 20% de francophone aura un effet sur le comportement électoral. Les gens dans la région de Grand-Sault voudront pas voter pour un ancien candidat du parti COR. Je crois que M. Savoy n'aura pas le choix de travailler fort pour regagner sont siège, mais en raison des valeurs politiques, sociales et économiques qui dégage à ses électeurs auront un avantage sur l'autre candidat.
23/05/04 KB
Email: [hidden]
I agree that Andy is a popular politician in this area. He has listened to his constituents and has tried to serve them well. However, this is strong conservative country, and that combined with a 'kick out the bums' mindset, will allow the Conservatives to win the riding. It won't be a cake-walk - but it will be a convincing win for Mr. Allen. The Liberals have made too many enemies and one good man will pay the price for it.
13/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Interesting riding. Liberal incumbent, yet the Conservatives had the highest vote, with very little redistricting. This is a clear indication that the Conservatives will win. Plus, last election this was a close three way race, between the Liberals and the two right wing parties. What does this mean now after those two parties have merged? They will win for sure, especially with the Liberal sponsorhip scandal.
12/05/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
I'll preface this by pointing out that this riding is my home, it is where I vote and where I follow politics the closest.
Dean is correct to point out that francophone population hovers around 20% but that figure is somewhat misleading. The largest community in the riding, Grand Falls, has about 7000 people. About half are each French mother tongue and English mother tongue but virtually all are bilingual and would have little time for the new CPC, especially where they are running an old COR guy. COR was far more extreme on the language issue than the Alliance (or Reform before it) ever dared to be.
As we move down the line, the rest of Victoria County will go largely Liberal -- due in part to anger over provincial Conservative plans to close both of the hospitals in the area and the fact that Savoy is the home town boy.
As we move down to Carleton County -- the Conservative bastion and centre of the Bible Belt, we have an interesting dynamic.
In greater Florenceville the minority population continues to grow due to people being attracted to work at McCain's Data Centre. These folks will vote largely Liberal but that will not be enough to off set the strong Conservative tradition in Northern Carleton county.
In the Woodstock-area, the fastest growning community and economic engine of the ridig, we have an interesting dynamic to watch. Though this is traditional Conservative country, there is a lot of anger towards Conservatives provincially because of a plans to close the hospital here and construct an newer facility upriver in Hartland. Though this would not necessarily be enough to turn the tide red, it is enough to get people thinking. At the same time, Savoy has focussed a lot of his term on the prosperity of Woodstock and it has not gone unnoticed.
Moving down to the south-end of the riding, on the west side of the river, Savoy is highly regarded and creditted with securing the federal funding to replace "suicide alley" with a divided highway. On the east side of the river, in the Mactaquac area, he would never have had any hopes and certainly doesn't where it is the home turf of Allen.
To sum up, the more I crunch the numbers, the more likely I am to think of calling this a Liberal win. Savoy won about 60-40 in the north and lost about 80-20 in the south in 2000. Now, I think he stands to go 70-30 (or better) in the north and lose the south again but probably by about 60-40. That should be enough to win it for him. Though I had started this as another undecided thread, I am scrolling up to change my prediction to Liberal.
10/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Looks like the language wars of the early '90's are starting again... the CPC have chosen an ex-CoR member and the PC ex-MP (a francophone) has endorsed the Grit MP... Things are looking very, very ugly...
For now I'm giving this to the CPC as Anglophone's outnumber Francophones by a lot here... but with a high Franco turnout who knows...
08/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
According to the 2001 census the riding has a Francophone minority of 17.5% (based on language at home usage). As "the analyst" has suggested, that minority is likely to pile up pretty big Liberal majorities, but will not be enough to win the riding for Savoy unless he can crack 40% or so of the Anglo vote...Any thoughts from anyone on how the south end fo the riding is shaping up?
08/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
The Maritimes are of all places the least susceptible to adding 1+1 and getting 2. That is, PC+CA = meaningless.
This is another one of those PC maritime ridings where the people who voted for Peter Mackay as PC leader won't be voting for Stephen Harper's CPC candidate.
The polls that have been coming out since the merger tend to support the hypothesis that former PC voters in the Maritimes are at least evenly split between the old Liberals and the "new" CPC. The Liberals don't need to pick up fully half of the old PC voters to make a clean sweep of NB, though. A solid 44% would do, and even less if the NDP keeps retreating from its 1997 high-water mark in the Maritimes.
03/05/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
I'd like to thank Dean for his kind remarks. Also, just for Dean, and everyone elses info, Gilles Bernier (the francophone PC MP from 1997-2000 who lost to Savoy by 150 votes in 2000) is backing Savoy this time around.
24/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The "Analyst" makes an excellent point in his approach to this riding...making the important distinction between the possible movement from the United Conservatives of "Red Tories" (I think a false issue) and francophone Tories, and there were quite a few of those in this riding in both 1997 and 2000 and they may well not stay Conservative now. Perhaps if the Conservative MP in 2000 had run again, these might have remained solid and the riding extraordinarily Conservative in 2004 as a result. I still pick the Tories to win this one, but did want to praise the acute reasoning of the Analyst while doing so...
09/04/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
This is not simply a matter of adding the PC & CA votes from 2000 together, which would make this appear to be an easy win for the Conservatives.
Savoy has been widely regarded in riding for his hard work on a number of important files and his excellent media strategy has allowed him to capitalize this. He has been given a considerable amount of credit from bringing then-PM Chretien to the riding in 2002 to announce funding for the TCH twinning throughout his riding to fix the road sadly known as "death alley".
Additionally, his strong position against same-sex marriage and his creation of a spirtual advisory committee of clergy have enamoured him to the "bible belt" community. He's also scored points for being a vocal opponent of the gun registry.
The above is enough to have improved Savoy's vote total to about 40%, but there are a number of other factors in his favour. Grand Falls, the largest community in the riding, is laregly Liberal and francophone. Savoy got only about 45-50% of the vote there in 2000 as a unilingual anglophone facing a bilingual Tory incumbant. Now Savoy is bilingual and is facing a Tory candidate who used to be an active member of the anit-French COR party. He stands to get 80% of the vote in the Grand Falls area.
Savoy has also capitalized on his positions in the Liberal Party, first as rural caucus chair and now as national caucus chair -- portraying himself as a powerbroker in the Martin government who is going places. If the neighbouring Andy in Fredericton doesn't get re-elected, Savoy is almost a sure bet for cabinet.
This will be a squeaker on election night, perhaps the closest riding in the province, not the Tory runaway that others are portraying it as.
01/04/04 RWA
This riding under it's current boundaries would have gone PC last time, and Harper won this riding handily (nearly 60%) in the leadership race, so party supporters will stay on board. Probably the most likely Conservative pick-up in the country, on the same level as a riding like Oxford.
31/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
While I agree with the last post on who will win, their reasoning is faulty. Only the bottom end of the riding down around Mactaquac and Keswick was ever COR country. The rest of the riding, though the Bible Belt, voted Liberal in the COR provincial election of 1991.
26/03/04 Cod Father
Email: djacks01@telus.net
The Liberals haven't got a chance here. This is one riding where vote splitting will be solved and Conservatives will rule. This is also CoR country...rural, agrarian, Bible belt. The former Confederation fo Regions Party people will work for the Conservatives.
24/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
I now think that the Conservatives will win this seat, but perhaps not by a margin as wide as most people suspect. A Harper-led Conservative Party will have more appeal in this riding than anywhere else east of Ontario. Indeed, this was the best riding for the Alliance east of Ontario in 2000, demonstrating that at least 30% of the residents of Tobique-Mactaquac have no problem voting for a party led by a social-conservative from Alberta. Andy Savoy will likely scoop up most of the PC votes around francophone Grand Falls in the north, but only 60% or so of the PC votes in the central and southern Bible Belt sector of the riding need to go Conservative to allow Michael Allen (the Conservative candidate) to win. In addition, the riding has gained some areas south of Woodstock and Nackawic that went heavily PC/Alliance in 2000, further ensuring a Conservative victory. This will likely be the only Conservative gain in Atlantic Canada on election night.
20/03/04 full name
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
My inclination is to give this one to the Tories, simply because of the nearly even split in 2000 allowing Savoy to come up the middle. But it will be closer than others on here may think. Adam Richardson, who was the Alliance candidate in 2000, dropped out of the Conservative race just before the convention, saying the party wasn't treating him fairly. Some of Richardson's supporters have been saying they might not even work for him in the next election.
That said, the sheer amount of combined PC/CA votes last time will be too much for Savoy to overcome. Any votes lost to Savoy over the Richardson deal will only make it mildly interesting. This isn't "red Tory" country either - this is the bible belt. Colour this one blue on election night.
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Another Tory take, provincially this area is already conservative, so this will be easy.....
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Clearly vote splitting allowed the Liberals to win this riding in 2000. That's now gone. Granted the united Conservative party is lower in the polls than the combined PC and CA were in Atlantic Canada, but still this is a right leaning riding.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
This one will go to the Conservatives in a walk. Gilles Bernier and Adam Richardson's votes combined would have crushed Andy Savoy, who only edged Mr. Bernier by 150 votes. The number of "red tories" that might gravitate to the Liberals will be few and far between. The talk about an "Alliance takeover" has all but died, and rigor mortis is setting in. The winds of change are blowing, and Mr Savoy will be one of those swept away.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I'm going to go out on a limb here, and assume the Conservative vote will not collapse in eastern canada. If that assumption is true, then this riding should turn blue. The alliance --is roumered to have-- used a unique strategy here last election, they told their voters to vote early, in the advance poll, and the won the advance poll. Imagine the surprise of voters in atlantic canada when the polls closed, the counting began, and the Alliance was leading in a seat! The new Conservative party will target this riding like mad, and I think, carry it.
16/03/04 RWA
This was the best Atlantic riding for the Alliance in 2000, and a Liberal who squeaked by with 34%. Even if the Harper-led Tories are painted as an Alliance takeover, this should be one riding in NB they win.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
This seat is exactly the type of seat the new Conservative Party was created for. The Liberal won in 2000 with only 34% of the vote, while the PC and Alliance vote combined was over 60%. There is a strong right-wing voter base in this riding, and gave the Alliance its' highest percentage of the vote east of Ontario in 2000. This riding also takes in New Brunswick's Bible Belt, so the voters are somewhat open to social conservatism. That being said, the Conservatives do not yet have this one in the bag. Liberal incumbent Andy Savoy is one of the most right-wing Liberals in Ottawa, and his stance against gay marriage will warm many local social conservative hearts. Plus, he is now the federal caucus chair, and this may give him the extra profile he needs to hold on. It is unlikely the NDP will be much of a factor in this race, since any left-Liberal votes that go NDP will probably be compensated by Red Tory votes going Liberal. This will be a tight race regardless.

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