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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:15 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:15 PM 6/11/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ted Alexander
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Murray Calder
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Ursula Ellis
Rita Landry
David Tilson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (100.0%)
Murray Calder

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,823 45.93%
11,496 31.39%
6,013 16.42%
1,188 3.24%
1,107 3.02%

(155/203 polls, 64114/81542 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Dufferin-Caledon had a bad unification when the Tories used dirty tricks to keep Reformer Don Crawford out of the game and get a patronage nomination for David Tilson, look for to pay for it with a Liberal Murray Calder victory.
24/06/04 PF
A couple of things have occurred in this riding in the past twenty four hours that would indicate to me that Murray Calder has an excellent chance at retaining this seat for the Liberals. First he received the endorsement of the Caledon Enterprise. That's his sencond endosement in less then a week! There was an all candidates debate in Shelburne last night and David Tilson was a no show. Is he running scared or has he been placed in the Harper bubble? The latest rumor on the street is that Tilson is no longer a resident of the riding, but lives year around at his cottage in northern Ontario. I still predict, Calder by less then 500 votes.
24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Tilson will win handily here, as will Van Loan east of him. If you don't think so, you haven't driven the concession roads in Caledon.
Email: [hidden]
Don't be fooled by an endorsement by the O'Ville Banner as always support Liberals only
23/06/04 Mark
Murray Calder has been a diligent and sincere representative for ten years and deserves to be re-elected. However, with the redistribution of ridings, I think Tilson, who will have a hard time filling Calder's shoes, will squeak through and win this seat. If people vote for the man, Calder will win. If they are voting for the party, Tilson will win.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Ah ha, my would-be home-town riding er electoral district if it hadn't have been for redistribution, gerrymandering, and its bastard political cousin amalgamization but I can at least confirm Mount Forest would have been solidly behind but with fiscally and socially conservative Blue Grit Murray Calder bolting to Bolton with the new constituency of Dufferin-Caledon, which will consist of the Town of Caledon and the County of Dufferin, such changes make that pretty hard. Another bell-weather riding that shows us the average rural poll of Grey, Wellington, Peel, Dufferin and even a bit of Simcoe County seats where the Ontario PC provincal Big Blue Machine seem to be so scared that they stole the board and fixed the candidate nominations from the former Canadian Alliance candidate with slimy tricks, despite the CRCA nominee having more ground support than the PCPC yet like many other hostile takeovers around the region this winter and spring, in this case, the power and patronage Tories have a guy in Red-Blue neo-con David Tilson who is owed much by the Machine for being the loyal soldier while stepping aside for Ernie Eves and it seems the free appointments and promised cash isn't enough but the dirty deeds done to the Reformer Don Crawford, who would have won with the last-minute revoked memberships, will come back to haunt the Tories first provincially then later federally. Look for the hot provincial by-election in September to replace former Premier and Tory leader Ernie Eves in Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey to be the rebirthed debut run for the Reform Party of Ontario due to the fact the big three stooges/parties have ignored the little guy, regular joe and average constituent as the Ontario PC confirm it by electing fiscally liberal, socially liberal and democratically lacking John Tory as their new leader but with three left-leaning liberal mainstream parties, I suspect that will make the rebel Reformers most likely forced into going to the right of centre, despite being centrist-populist with their main issue being democratic reform, a left-to-right spectrum idea.
20/06/04 Mark H
Email: [hidden]
People are still angry that Tilson left his seat for a premier who had little interest or time for the people of this riding. On the other hand, Murray Calder has worked tirelessly for the people, both in riding and in Ottawa.
20/06/04 PF
Email: [hidden]
Although this going to be a close race, I beleive that Murray Calder can hold on to this riding for the Liberals. Murray has a reputation of being a very hard working right wing Liberal, where David Tilson did little for us while in provincial government. We would be lucky to see him at events in the riding. Murray has always found time to attend community events and represent us in Ottawa. David Tilson is true to form during this election campaign by not attending all candidates meetings. Tilson has always been a lazy Orangeville lawyer! With redistribution of the riding, it now has a higher precentage of urban voters than in previous elections. Urban voters tend to vote more to the left then rural voters. On Friday, Murray received the endorsement of the Orangeville Banner. That endorsment comes from Tilson's home town. I predict Calder will take this one by less than 500 votes.
10/06/04 KS
Email: [hidden]
Speller is winning the sign war. Finley is seen to represent a small minortiy of disgruntled tobacco farmers, and doesn't match Speller in name recognition or status. Don't forget Speller met with President Bush last month, and is seen as one of the LIberal's better performing Ministers.
Closer this time, but Bob will win.
01/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Dufferin-Caledon is Tory heartland. When Tilson won (Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey) in 1999 he got over 60% of the vote, and obviously Eves had no trouble holding it last year. I'd probably be calling this one a CPC pick-up even if the Conservatives were mired in Chretien-era numbers based solely on the strength of the unified-right. There are a lot of ridings in Ontario that are justifiably considered "too close to call" right now, but at current conservative support levels this isn't one of them. Tilson win.
25/05/04 WS
Email: [hidden]
Tilson actually won the nomination by 75 votes over the closest competitor. As for being right wing, he is definitely more of a Red Tory. I think this will definitely go Conservative, and Tilson will be back representing the riding.
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A "far right-winger"? I thought Tilson was considered a PC-caucus *moderate*. (Which, of course, renders him more "electable"--a refreshing point in a seat where the '97 Reform candidate's subsequently been running for the provincial Family Coalition.) Murray Calder was really a 1993 electoral fluke; however, what he represents now is more congenial (i.e. closer to the inner-905 orbit) and contains less and less of his (i.e. Perrin Beatty's) '93 domain--but it's also further and further from his own rural home turf. Whether it still holds in 2004 (esp. with the Tilson factor) is yet unknown, but Caledon has had the aura of a place where the provincial Ernie constituency's been more than willing to grease the federal Martin wheel; they're not *that* inherently Liberal-hostile. Calder's in trouble, but *possibly* not as severe as it looks--still, he's in trouble.
17/05/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
I cannot see how you have this riding too close to call!!!
David Tillson is a strong candidate with a great deal of support and a winning track record. Can we bring up provincial politics for a minute here? He's the guy who normally pulled in 30,000+ votes and would win with 2/3!!
We're not just talking swing-riding...we're talking about a mediocre Liberal who has survived because of vote-splitting and a lack of alternatives. This is Ontario where almost every provincial politician spent the past few elections sitting on the fence not wanting to declare for one party or another. (Come to think of it, if I had to choose between Joe Clark and Stockwell Day, I probably would have chosen to stab myself with a fork)
There's enough anger against the Liberals (federally and provincially) that traditional blue areas will show their true colours. Tillson takes this one with over 50% and makes a good MP.
01/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I just couldn't see this riding going anything but Conservative. The fact is that rural ridings have higher Conservative support than urban ridings; with this one voting in similar trends to Grey, Wellington and Simcoe county seats. Even when the Ontario NDP came to power in 1990, MPP David Tilson won his seat under the PC Party when most other traditionally PC rural ridings (Perth, Haliburton) were swept up in the socialist tidal wave, making this one of the most staunchy Tory seats in the province! Before the 1993 red wave, Progressive Conservative MP Perrin Beatty represented this riding for decades and before that you won't find a Liberal win here at all...at least not in the past century! So even if the Tories only pick up 15 seats in Ontario, this will be one of them.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Many people have stated that the Liberal incumbant is a better representative than the Tory candidate (having said the Tory was known for his laziness, etc). Some have predicted a liberal win because after redistribution the combined PC/CA vote was only 650 votes more than what the liberals got. Some have also stated that the Liberal incumbant, being a blue liberal is more in tune with the riding's voters as opposed to the far-right Tory counterpart. Here's the flaws with these arguments; before the great right split in the early 90's this was safe conservative territory. Secondly, as was stated many many times, the scandals and what not have deflated Liberal support. In most of rural southern Ontario that deflated support has gone to one place and one place only: the Conservatives. Don't get us wrong, this is not a sure-fire Conservative win but the Tory's certainly have the edge.
14/04/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
I lived in this riding for a long time, and it's about as solidly blue as a riding can be - Eves didn't pick it for its charms, after all. The local MP and MPP fighting it out will be interesting, but I think it's safe to say that any riding where the PC/CA combined vote won is almost certainly a blue riding.
12/04/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I used to live in this riding and I could see it going Tory but for the time being I'm going to say Calder will be re-elected because if the Liberals even get 25% percent of the old PC vote, they hang on to this riding. Further, Calder is a blue liberal known as a hard-working constituency MP whereas Tilson had a reputation for being somewhat lazy and a far right-winger. So Calder is probably closely ideologically for many old PCers than Tilson. Moreover, Tilson's resignation in 2002 will have prompted this riding into three provincial votes in three years by the time Eves resigns his seat either late this year or early next year.
03/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Interesting analysis so far...Unless the focus of the yet called election shifts dramatically, I don't think Harper will be the issue...Tilson will be an excellent candidate for the Conservatives and if he won the nomination in a tight contest...it must suggest the riding is attracting a lot of interest. I must admit having a lot of difficulty swallowing the premise that a PC voter, loyal in the dark years from 1993-2000, will now decide that its time to vote Liberal. I think the unification and leadership process was just too harmonious for that to happen. Until I see a different focus for the campaign, I'm calling this one for the Conservatives.
02/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
Calder has been an exceptionally strong constituency MP, and as a "blue Liberal" he will capture some of the vote of former "Progressive" Conservatives who are uncomfortable with Harper and the Alliance. Tilson had a reputation for being lazy as an MPP. The new riding boundaries leave out a number of the polls that went strongly to Alliance in the 2000 election, but the Liberal stronghold, around Bolton, remains completely in the riding. When the new boundaries are taken into account, the combined P.C-Alliance vote in 2000 is only about 650 above Calder's vote.
20/03/04 BP
Email: [hidden]
We need to remember that up until vote splitting began in 1993 this was considered one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and was represented by Perrin Beatty. The tendency will be for it to go Tory and it will take everything Calder has to prevent it.
18/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Former MPP David Tilson is running, too close at this point in time, very possible conservative gain.
17/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives will steal this one for sure. David Tilson is a loyal soldier that gave up his seat for Former Ontario Premier Ernie Eves. Tilson is well known and well loved in this riding. There is no doubt in my mind that after the election it will be a warm welcome back to elected life for Mr. Tilson
17/03/04 CD
Email: [hidden]
This will be a close fight to the end. Murray Calder has fought 3 tough elections while Tilson has not. Tilson never had to fight for a nomination or a difficult election. His nomination run for the CPC was won by only a margin of 16 votes. His past elections were against weakened Liberal opponents and I do not think he would have won if he ran provincially last election. I think he will find Calder to be very strong competition. Both candidates are tainted by association with scandalous governments so Tilson will not be able to exploit the "hate on" the electorate has for the Liberals right now (Mar 2004). As much as I want to predict a CPC victory, its a close race and I'll give the edge to the incumbent.

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