Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:00 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:00 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Robert Cruise
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Paul Forman
David Tremblay
Jeff Watson
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Susan Whelan

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Essex (100.0%)
Hon. Susan Whelan

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,948 43.92%
15,083 34.96%
5,984 13.87%
2,993 6.94%
130 0.30%

(205/220 polls, 74395/79405 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Auto worker amd former union director Jeff Watson is one of those Conservatives who was an Alliance candidate and began his political career on an executive board as a Reformer. Susan Whelan biggest project this term around, without being too sensative as we are being censored, was trying to revise Canadian history by changing it from long-distance relative Patrick James Whelan being the assassin-murderer of D'Arcy McGee to some other unlucky bloke instead of just letting history speak for itself. Big Hat Eugene can't be proud, but if he is, the Trudeau Liberal will be shocked as Election Night in Essex is going Right.
18/06/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
The National Post puts the Conservatives way ahead. Towns like Kingsville, Harrow, Lasalle are very small-c conservative. Essex has a large NDP block, which will help to split the anti-conservative vote.
The Whelan dynasty is about to end.
18/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going to Jeff Watson. Look at the COMPAS poll. He is ahed by 10%, and Susan Whelan is at 34%. The Liberals have shown they are unable to stop this downward spin, and that will help elect a Conservative MP. Insult the Windsor Star as much as you like, but COMPAS has shown it is fair in its polling.
17/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
CPAC didn't even come close to the Essex riding in their report. The entire piece (save for the bridge segments) were taped in Windsor-Tecumseh. So much for the Conservatives being the party for the rich; that riding has the 3rd highest median income in the country.
Despite Ken Lewenza & the CAW rallying the troops as much as he can, Essex is going blue. Watson & Fuschi are both auto workers, so there goes the "Tories are anti-CAW" claim. Locals are upset over the gun registry, the lack of federal funding for the area, and are generally conscious of the fact that Whelan's time as a cabinet minister is over as long as Martin is leader.
While I do like Susan Whelan (as opposed to some of her views), this is a bit of a comeuppance. She defeated former NDP leadership candidate Stephen Langdon thanks to the anti-Rae sentiment in 1993. McGuinty has helped her in the same way this time. The sign war is being won by Watson, and he's a strong, likeable candidate. He was great in the televised debate (along with Whelan).
At any rate, in case of a Cons. minority win, Whelan will be back, especially if Manley replaced Martin.
16/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Agreed that this is too close. The reason is that this area is becoming an NDP stronghold again. The Whelan dynasty should survive here, and the Conservatives could be a factor as well (so say the polls). in a three-way split you can normally give it to the Liberals, but given Martin's debate performance, who knows?
14/06/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.ca
CPAC recently spent a day in Windsor, talking to people on the street, in stores, union reps, etc...and were baffled that not one person said they're voting Conservative. Windsor Star poll, we now find out, did not include any undecideds. And it was only a small sampling, so very tricky to base any firm conclusions on. If local Tory candidates think they have it all wrapped up because of the biased Windsor Star, watch out. Whelan is an informed and hard-working MP, and deserves re-election.
Don't put ay faith into the poll done by the Windsor Star, the Star is a horible paper and is very biased, also the Poll they conducted has a margiv of error of over 10%
10/06/04 Joe
Email: [hidden]
The Windsor Star poll is a joke. It was done by an ex-fraser Insitute professer at the University of Windsor. There was no "undecides" reported and the questions asked have not been made public meaning that they were likely loaded to get a result that the very conservative Windsor Star wants.
Look at the numbers "The survey of 497 Windsor and Essex County residents was conducted from May 23 to June 3." That is only 166 per riding (or 14 per riding per night) this is nowhere close to an accurate poll. A second question is where are they calling??? Riverside Drive??? this professor has no history of doing professional polling and it shows.
Yes the race in Essex is likely close but it is insane to report that Susan Whelan is running at 18%. I see Susan pulling this out of the fire by a close margin.
10/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
According to another individual riding COMPASS poll today, the Conservatives are 10 points ahead of Susan Whelan in Essex, so it looks like this riding is less close now and could go Conservative.
10/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
After hearing the news, we concur with all the other postings. Susan is in big trouble and it looks like the Conservatives will take this riding now. Tory posters are all over the riding and the numbers now reflect what we see on the ground. If Susan goes down, look for other southern Ontario liberals like Pikard and Ur tobe in trouble. Message to the Grand Council of electoral wise-guys that run this site: Time to update some of the ridings to too close to call (like this one). It sure ain't a liberal keep for sure anymore.
10/06/04 RWA
A second poll, this one by COMPAS, gives the Tory candidate a substantial lead in Essex.
10/06/04 Ben
Email: [hidden]
A June 11 COMPAS poll (only 300 participants), has put Jeff Watson (46%) ahead of Susan Whelan (36%) and David Tremblay (20%). At the very least, I think it's time to change this seat to "too close".
10/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
This riding is going Conservative. Based on a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, Jeff Watson has a 10% lead on Liberal candidate Susan Whelan. There is a strong social conservative tendency in this riding that should eclipse the Whelan success here for good. Tory gain.
10/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Make no mistake - Essex is in play for the conservatives. Local polling has them significantly ahead, and a quick look at last time will show that what was once considered "Liberal Bedrock" was in fact very fertile ground for the Alliance. The conservatives are going to win quite a few Southwestern seats, and this looks like it may be one of them.
BTW, Bear & Ape: What part of London do you think is in Essex? London is nowhere near this riding! Perhaps you mean Elgin-Middlesex-London?
"Conservative Jeff Watson is poised to win, according to a COMPAS riding poll (n=300) conducted for the National Post, Global Television, the Windsor Star, and other CanWest newspapers. Watson (44%) trounces Liberal Susan Whelan (34%) and NDPer David Tremblay (20%; table 1)."
Unfortunately, the Windsor Star poll puts Susan Whelan behind the Conservative quite substantially. Essex will be a conservative gain.
07/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Which way will Essex go, George, which way will it go? Until Scott Cowan's 35% Alliance shocker in 2000, it was commonly assumed that Essex County in toto was a virtual Conservative (Progressive, Reform, whatever) wasteland, evangelicals or no. On the other hand, Pat Hayes' strong second-place 2003 provincial run reasserted NDP competitiveness in this domain (though it helps that ex-MPP Hayes was always considered an NDP right-winger). Besides, even if it doesn't/no longer includes parts of the City of Windsor, Essex riding still reflects Greater Windsor's idiosyncratically NDP-friendly climate. And despite Bear & Ape's "905" claims for LaSalle, the NDP (surprise!) fares at par even *there*--and similarly or better in Maidstone/Belle River, in Amherstburg, in Essex Town etc; it's only the southern Harrow-Kingsville tier where it's absolute fat chance for the Dippers versus the Tories. Another factor: in 2000, the NDP didn't have the coattails of a Comartin-! Masse twofer. None of this means the NDP will win. None of it means, either, that the Tories *won't* win--thanks to 2000, you have to throw out the pre-2000 no-Toryz rulebook for this territory. On the other hand, it's reasonable climate for a potential 3rd-place finish for Susan Whelan, yes, a *Whelan* in third...
07/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Who would have thought it? Local polling shows "no name" Tories out front in two of three Windsor-area riding, with Joe Comartin in a tight race.
07/06/04 L L
Email: [hidden]
Local Poll Windsor Star addition today Monday June 7th.
Essex Riding - Watson (CPC) 42.5, Whelan (Liberal) 18.4 , Tremblay (NDP) 16.1 CPC WINS BY 24% (Move this one to CPC Column)
05/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Just heard that the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. We think it's time to call a number of ridings including this one. We feel that much of London is a three way race, but round these parts it's more of a two way race. The part of this riding outside London is quite conserative and would probably be a sure-fire Conservative win if it were not for the London portion. We're feeling cocky and are going to say Conservative pick up.
06/06/04 Chris Warden
Email: [hidden]
The Windsor Star has just released a poll for the three area ridings, and of the three this one showed the Conservatives with a monster lead. Currently Watson(C) sits at 42% with Whelan(L) at 18%. Though my personal feeling is that this spread is really exaggerated, I do still feel that Watson will unseat Whelan with quite a few votes to spare
06/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
A new local poll was published, here are its findings: (thanks to canada.com)
Conservative Jeff Watson has more than twice the support of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Whelan.
Watson enjoys the backing of 42.5 per cent of Essex voters, while Whelan has the support of only 18.4 per cent. NDP candidate David Tremblay is in third with 16.1 per cent.
"Even though Susan Whelan, the Whelan name, has a lot of name recognition ... I think there's a sense the Liberals have been in too long," Miljan said. "Watson doesn't have the same name recognition but he is being buoyed by the national campaign."
Whelan's largely rural and agricultural riding -- which includes the towns of LaSalle and Amherstburg -- has tended to lean more to the right than other area ridings in the past. In 2000, the combined totals of the Progressive Conservative and Alliance candidates came within 1,330 votes of Whelan's total.
----Conservative Pickup----
05/06/04 Kris Major
Email: [hidden]
Windsor Star/Essex Polling And Resarch Survey:
Jeff Watson - Conservatives 42.5%
Susan Whelan - Liberals 18.4%
David Tremblay - NDP 16.1%
05/06/04 Dave Campbell
Email: calldave@hotmail.com
The Windsor Star's poll published this morning tells the whole story. The Conservative Party's Jeff Watson (an auto worker by trade) will dominate this election and any gains made by the NDP in this race will simply pull Susan Whelan's numbers down even further.
02/06/04 Robert French
Email: [hidden]
Its a close three way race. Susan Whelan for the Liberals, Jeff Watson for the Conservatives and David Tremblay for the NDP. As for the name recognition thing, it aint just Susan thats got it. Many people in the northern part know David Tremblay and what he stands for. There could be a vote split between Whelan and Tremblay, allowing Watson to slip by. Oh heck, who knows whos gonna win? This should a close one for all three parties. Keep a close eye on this one.
29/05/04 TAB
Email: [hidden]
My opinion maybe somewhat bias but as I drive thru areas of the riding where the liberal signs are being taken down, this speaks volumes. The Conservatives are finally united behind Jeff Watson. His campaign team is comprised of red tories, dark blue conservatives, former CA's and reform members. A poll released to team members last night shows a 3 way battle with jeff in the lead. Calls in to the office from former liberal voters for signs are encouraging. Jeff Watson, if national campaign goes well will be the first conservative elected here in 45 years.
27/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The combined numbers of the Alliance, and PC vote comes a little bit short of taking this riding, but with the Liberals lower in the polls, and the Conservative party up in Ontario, and a strong NDP, expect this riding to go Conservative come June 28.
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000
Billy, Billy, Billy...How confused you are. Please read the bold print
ESSEX IS NOT WINDSOR! There once (many many moons ago) was a riding called Essex-Windsor, which elected an NDP member in the 80's. THAT RIDING IS GONE! That particular riding held many areas which now fall into Joe Comartin's riding. Areas like Forest Glade, Walker Farm, Sandwich East and South Pillette. Yes these areas do vote NDP, but they are NOT IN ESSEX. As well when the NDP was elected in PART of this riding the rest of the current riding was part of Kent-Essex. And what parties were elected in Kent-Essex? Liberals and PC. Like it or not, the current Essex riding is more akin to the old Kent-Essex than to Essex-Windsor (which would best be compaited to Windsor-Tecumseh). And seriously, "reform votes" going suddenly to the NDP? C'Mon, this is southern Ontario not BC or Saskatchewan.
23/05/04 Billy Zebob
Email: [hidden]
What people seem to be mistaken about is assuming that the 2000 Reform vote can only swing to the Liberals. That simplistic poli sci 101 stuff isn't true in areas like Windsor. In Windsor a lot of the NDP vote went over to the Reform party. To the degree that the new Conservative party will attempt to re establish itself as an "establishment" party is the degree to which voters who voted Reform for its populist appeal will return to the NDP. Another factor to consider is that the number of Catholics in this area makes it very difficult for the Tories to make an electoral gain (Tory loosely = Protestant in traditional voting patterns). Finally it is important to remember the NDP has held this seat before when the Tories were doing well (e.g. '84 and '88), and the Torieds seem to be spiking in Ontario (Compas). I would predict an NDP shoe in if it wasn't for the fact that Susan sports the Whelan name, which draws support on the false assumption that she has any of her father's positive attributes and Jeff Watson who ran a very strong positive campaign in Windsor West in 1997. The final factor is that the NDP candidate is heavily engaged in local issues. IN my humble opinion it worked for Brian in Windsor West, so it'll probably work here to. In conclusion, it'll be a close three way race but at the end of the day I expect Essex to return to the NDP by a narrow margin.
17/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Some people have taken issue with our posting (that's okay, we've taken issue with many other people's postings, besides thats what makes this website fun). But we'd like to know just how many of them actually live in this riding...or even NEAR this riding. If they did they'd realise that the NDP have very little support in Essex as opposed to the neighbouring Windsor ridings (where the two NDP incumbants are a shoe-in). Therefore the bleading of Liberal votes to the NDP will be neglegable in essex and won't be a factor for a conservative win. The conservatives do have a chance here but the Whelan dynasty is strong (not as strong as Herb Grey was though). Essex is a rural right of center, socially conservative riding (for the most part) where NDP values don't always bode well. On paper it would look like an easy Conservative win, but name recognition alone and the fact that Susan is very very well liked will probably allow her to win. The fact that Paul Martin is more conservative also helps. As for the Adscam...no one really talks about it. Prediction: Liberal win by a narrow margin. If the Conservatives do better during the campaign then it could very well become a Conservative take.
08/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
1) This a relatively weak win by the Liberals in the past
2) The vote was mainly CA last time and not a straight split with the PCs
3) the redistributed riding makes the riding marginally more conservative (Liberal friendly polls were lost)
4) A rising NDP will be a factor in parts of this riding - keep in mind that Layton is the first leader of a Fed party to come from Ontario since the 1980s. Increased NDP, even a few thousand votes is going to come from the Liberal hide
5) The Greens will more of a factor in this election than ever before - they will pick up some 2000 votes in this riding. One in three will be non-voters, but the rest will come equally from people that voted PC, Liberal and NDP last time.
So, the Liberals are likely to lose 3000 votes, the CPC is likely to pick up 1500 votes. This then means a CPC win by some hundreds of votes
05/05/04 Olive_Branch
Email: thedevilthedevil@hotmail.com
If former MPP and municipal politics veteran Pat Hayes runs, he will win it for the NDP. He returned the most impressive numbers by any NDP candidate that lost in the 2003 Ontario elections.
03/05/04 Morty Hines
Email: Durmatang@hotmail.com
When Bear and Ape says that the CPC is running at the same level as the CA alone, he is making the mistake of applying national numbers to Ontario. The last pre-writ Ipsos poll in 2000 had the Alliance at 19 *in Ontario* and the Liberals at 58 *in Ontario*. The last pre-writ Ontario number for the PCs was 12% *in Ontario*. The 2004 Ipsos numbers have the Grits at 41% *in Ontario* and the CPC at 32% *in Ontario*. The CPC has taken a hit nationally because they've dropped from first to last in BC, first to tied in the Prairies, and somewhere from last to super-last in Quebec. So don't take it out of Ontario!
The moral of the story is, you can simply add up 2000 Ontario PC and CA support to project Ontario CPC 2004 support. On top of that, you can probably steal 20% of Liberal support and give it to the NDP. But you wouldn't even have to do that for this riding to see that the Conservatives will easily, easily come out on top.
13/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Jim is correct on one thing, if the Conservatives win here, it will be astounding. All joking aside though, he did make a few good points but we still have to argue against them. Essex county is social conservative but the Alliance never could make a break though here. The new Conservatives are running in the polls about the same as only the CA in the last election (not like the combined CA/PC votes). This would suggest that (as the polls are now) the Conservatives will not pick up any seats that "In the last election the combined PC/Alliance vote was only a couple percentage points behind the Liberals". Another good point that Jim made pertained to the very socially conservative churches in the county. However these are concentrated in the southern part of the county (such as in Harrow). The single largest voting block in this riding is LaSalle, which for all tense and purposes, is Windsor's answer to the 905 belt. Meaning they are more to the right than urban counterparts but not socially conservative like the reridents in the rural hinterland. What this means is that whereas the city of Windsor will vote NDP, the suburbs like LaSalle will vote Liberal and the rural areas will have a mix of Liberal and Conservative votes. Unfortunatly for the Conservatives, due to LaSalle being the largest voting block, the Liberals will win essex.
07/04/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go over to the Conservatives, and it will astound the whole country. I'll tell you why.
This riding is very conservative in its core and it is only getting more conservative. The reason they rejected the PC's in the past was because it didn't represent Essex values. Those values reject social conservatism. That influence is waning.
Also the Italian/Mediteranean Catholic vote here is not as strong as it is in Windsor St. Clair. As Italians and Mediterranean Catholics are a guarenteed Liberal votes (even though this same group is anti-gay/anti-abortion, go figure) and not having them influence things makes it interesting.
Another interesting development is that Pentecostal and Evengelical Christian faiths are growing by leaps and bounds in Essex. The folks from the US South has invested much sweat equity into developing their faiths in Canada, and Essex is their beachhead. This group votes in blocks and they vote for whoever wants to change society to match their values and that is a faction of the Conservatives that Harper reluctantly must listen to.
This coupled by the facts that the Liberals really have a thing against the rural way of life (guns, farming, etc.) and that the Liberals are blantantly pandering to gays with gay marriage (I'm pro-marriage but Essex isn't), and the Essex gets the shirt end of the patronage stick, I think it will swing the Conservatives way.
In the last election the combined PC/Alliance vote was only a couple percentage points behind the Liberals.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We both currently live in the Windsor area and Essex is Ape's home riding. What needs to be cleared up is that Essex is NOT Windsor. The demographics and voting patters are not to be confused. The NDp are likely going to keep their Windsor MPs but that does not mean that Susan will lose her seat too, especially a loss to the NDP. With redistribution, Essex is even more rural than ever (having lost Tecumseh) and will vote similarly to other southern Ontario rural ridings (Chatam-Kent-Essex or Elgin-Middlesex-LOndon for example). If anyone is going to knock the Liberals off, it will be the Conservatives, not the NDP. Granted LaSalle is in this riding, but they are more conservative than people who live in Windsor proper (meaning where people in Windsor will vote NDP, people in LaSalle will vote Liberal). To top it off, Susan Whelan and the Whelan family name is something of an institution in Essex county. Despite being kicked out of cabinet (she was a big time fan of Chretien) Susan will be back in Ottawa. If things get really bad for the Liberals then she could lose her riding, but it will be to the Conservatives, NOT the NDP.
20/03/04 Craig
This one is tricky. The proximity to Windsor (and the fact some suburbs spread into this riding) means the NDP has strength here (and the excellent result in the provincial election proved it) but the Conservatives also have a base here in the agricultural areas. I think they will just crowd Susan Whelan out as she is vulnerable to lose votes in both directions with the united right, NDP resurgence and scandals. It all depends on the candidates. Predicted results: Conservative 35%, NDP 34%, Liberal 29%, others 2%.
17/03/04 ESP
Email: [hidden]
This seat is a possibility for the NDP. The party is strong in the Windsor region, and if the Liberals start to stall Susan Whelan will be vulnerable. Much depends on the quality of the New Democrat nominee and how well Layton(or poorly Martin) does in the campaign.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster