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London North Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:12 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:12 PM 6/26/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Joe Fontana
Tim Gatten
Gustavo Granados-Ocon
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Bronagh Morgan
PC Party/Parti PC:
Rod Morley
Joe Swan

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
London North Centre (100.0%)
Hon. Joe Fontana

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,546 51.49%
8,901 20.33%
7,268 16.60%
3,897 8.90%
1,176 2.69%

London North Centre
(240/240 polls, 81702/81702 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Free pRess poll shows a tight race. Fontana has the incumbent advantage. Slim hold.
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
London North Centre had a Red Tory past of old Ontario PC leadership contender Dianne Cunningham, but that was then, this is now and Conservative Tim Gatten is going to nail hard with the Progressive Canadians hurting Joe Fontana and the Liberals here.
24/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Free Press/New PL poll shows this one as a tie between Fontana and Gatten with Swan a close third. I still think that Fontana will win in the end, but if there is going to be an upset in London, this will probably be it. May hinge on whether or not many NDPers are prepared to hold their nose and vote Liberal to prevent Gatten getting in.
24/06/04 Hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
I think the Joe's will split a ton of votes, enough for Gatten to sneak by. Fontana is really tense these days and both Joe's spend so much energy attacking Gatten you get the feeling a) they really are afraid of conservatives b) they have no ideas of thier own or c) that Tim is attracting a lot of votes.
I say Joe Swan would win this one if he took a different road, not that he is slinging mud, but a better attack on Joe Fontana's record not Gatten's potential actions would serve him better in so tight a riding.
23/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
I attended the all candidates debate on the Concrete Beach at UWO on Monday. While the London Free Press ignored the trouncing Gatten took and continues to serve as the Conservative mouth-piece in London, they aren't going to win them any seats. While it is summer time, there are still many students living in L-N-C and they don't like Gatten. Aside from about 4 audience members, who I recognized as executive members of UWO's Young Conservative club, Gatten didn't even get applause once.
Add to this his unpopular stances on war, same-sex marriage, and student loans and it is clear that anyone who has listened to the man will not make the mistake of voting for him.
That said, Fontana's time may be up, too. While he continually referred to the Tories as "Bush Light", I would say that as a Liberal, Fontana has been "Gatten Light". He's not nearly socially progressive as his neighbouring MP Sue Barns, which this university riding demands.
I will be the first to admit that this is a three-way race, but if I had to make a gamble on it, my money would be on Joe Swan. Socially progressive, fiscally prudent, and more moderate than most NDPers, Swan appeals to students as well as the hoi polloi of L-N-C.
My prediction is that of the 4 London ridings, this is one that will go NDP along with London-Fanshawe. London-West and Elgin-Middlesex-London will stay Liberal...though perhaps just barely.
23/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
All we knowe is that more than two thirds of the votes in this riding will be wasted. Joe Swan could be the sleeper. Keep track of this one on election night. Marion Boyd's team is still active here.
21/06/04 CAREW
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who discounts Swan's chances here is hoping for a result not fairly assessing the situation. All three of these guys are very much in the hunt, with informal polling putting Swan at or near the top and Fontana in third. Swan is winning the sign battle and Fontana is clearly worried, running FROM Martin with his home made JOE signs. A Tory sweep in Ontario will of course take Gatten to Ottawa, but he did finish last among five serious candidates for Board of Control only marginally surpassing the mildly eccentric Susan Smith who ran the proverbial shoe string budget. If Gatten can keep his extreme right wing fundamentalist anti-choice views out of the paper, which is not covering the race, he could squeak in, but I'd handicap him as the longest shot of the three right now.
20/06/04 Compassionate Conservatice
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure how many people heard the all-candidates debate on AM 980 earlier in the week, but I think it points to why Tim Gatten is set to upset Fontana in 8 days.
Fontana & Swan ganged up on Gatten throughout the debate, both trying to score points against him, and not really going after each other.
What does this say about how the NDP & Liberals view the standing in the riding? Their attacks are following the method of attacking a front-runner.
And what happened when they, and some obvious plants (hello Stephen Orser), attacked Tim? He stood his ground and sounded good.
What this shows is that the Liberal/NDP tactics won't be taking Gatten down, and as long as the Conservatives don't go into a total nosedive in Ontario, this riding will be changing to Blue.
18/06/04 bam_bam
Email: [hidden]
I am in the LNC riding and did vote for gatten municipally. Unfortunately the munucipal elections are non-partisan. If I had known gatten was conservative, i as well as my other 4 family members would not have voted for him. We will be supporting joe swan on june 28th. swan was the only one at city hall who let the public know what was going on and didn't try to keep secrets. we have a right to know where our money is going. having said that i think the liberal support will be there come election day, i think liberal supporters are reluctant to have lawn signs this election. why is everyone so upset about adscam. they should've been tossed out for the hr scandal and gun registry before this even came about. Liberals in a squeaker 35%, gatten 32%, swan 30%
14/06/04 hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
This is one of those ridings that only a few months ago seemed so safe to the liberals that Joe Fontana could be DEAD and still win.
I'm not so sure now, Gatten polled solidly though finishing just off the slate in the municipal election. That was city wide and his base is in the riding. He is articulate and well liked by a younger generation identifying with students because of connections to Fanshawe College.
Joe Swan is London's Don Cherry, you either love him or hate him and he usually has something controversial to offer. However he is respected and the NDP could be a major player here . Remember BOYD vs CUNNINGHAM provincially a few years ago? That was billed as a battle of the titans and the last provincial was election similar.
All three parties have a legitimate shot and Fontana is showing signs of panic. He like Swan is a love/hate kind of guy and those who dislike him do so a lot. He is the kind of guy who could do a Dennis Mills and show up at another candidates rally looking like an ass. Fontana never had to fight hard in previous campaigns and could soon be filling out his pension forms.
14/06/04 Mathew Varsava
Email: Mathew_Varsava@hotmail.com
Firstly, the Gatten campaign has not had lots of sign violations. It has had a grand total of 5. Now isn't that a scary mammoth total. 5. Not the 100+ of the Fontana campaign (hey, wait a minute, isn't that an area you are involved with?). We had 5, and they've all been moved within 24 hours of being reported to us by the city.
The second allegation you made is that our campaign didn't have many signs on people's lawns. How ironic then that it's Fontana signs that people have been taking down, and Gatten & Swan signs that are going up. The Gatten blue are everywhere, and we even replace them when they 'mysteriously' disappear or get slashed.
10/06/04 Mathew Varsava
Email: mathew_varsava@hotmail.com
Let's address some of the lies that you just posted.
1. Gatten & Swan have little private lawn signs.
Both Gatten & Swan have been doing well with their lawn signs. Unlike Fontana, who placed his lawn signs on people's lawns without asking permission, and subseuqently has had them taken down by the people whose lawns were placed on (Wait a minute Stephen, aren't you one of the people who put up Fontana signs?) Both Swan & Gatten have fought a hard ground campaign so far & have established this through lots of signs on people's lawns. Fontana however, has piled two & three signs on the same person's lawn. Let's consider this to be a silly acusation by Orser.
2. There are lots of illegal Gatten signs on public property.
The Gatten campaign has had 5 signs which the city identified as an issue. All were moved inside of 24 hours. The Fontana campaign had over 100. Hmmm, Stephen, looks like you might be losing credibility here.
Orser, you and the Liberals are on the way out of LNC, just as you are on the way out nationally.
I am willing to admit that I am partisan towards the Conservatives, but this riding should 'at least' be considered too close to call.
Even though I believe this to be a conservative gain, unlike Mr. Orser, I will be objective in calling it too close to call.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The story of the past 15 years in London is the emergence of the once-marginalized NDP as a competitive electoral force, carrying on (in no small part due to Marion Boyd's enduring aura) well beyond the Rae years. Provincially, that is; never federally, though not due to lack of trying. And Jack Layton's leadership is just perfect for London's inner-core/campus-inflected urban demographic; so that the NDP is entertaining serious hopes w/Joe Swan doesn't surprise. Problem is: the seat's got too much affluent hostile "North" to shout down the "Centre". The better NDP bet is London-Fanshawe next door; on the other hand, the better *Layton* bet is this one. Except that it's a better *Harper* belt as well. And on the whole, Joe Fontana's held his own to the point where if there were a token handful of SW Ontario seats sticking to their Liberal guns, his would be high on the list...
03/06/04 Stephen Orser
Email: Stephen.Orser@rogers.com
Your information about Joe Swan is wrong most people in the riding already think his game plan is to split the vote for the tory camp to win, then get their help to run for mayor he is dead in the water already.Tim Gatten is ,by his own hand, being looked at as person not able to handle the campaign stress very well. Both Gatten and Swan have very little private lawn signs ,but many public ones in illegal spots thats upsetting voters. Fontanna is starting to get lots of lawn signs up on private homes everywhere. This is a sure sign of hard grass roots support in LNC for him and not the others.
03/06/04 519 Observer
Email: [hidden]
Way, way too close to call. One of the few three-way races in Ontario; all three parties should get around 30% of the vote. I have no idea who is going to win.
26/05/04 RJL
Email: [hidden]
London North Centre is a tight three way race. Each of the candidates have cut their teeth at city hall, two as councillors, Tim Gatten as assistant to two Mayors. Joe Fontanna will be hurt by a strong candidate in the NDP camp, Joe Swan. With a united right and less vote splitting it should be a boost for the Gatten vote. While some are concerned with Tim's church background I believe voters are more sophisticated than some who have even written here and this will be a non issue, many people go to church. Even Paul Martin is a regular at church, and Joe Fontanna has Catholic roots.
Overall it should be a hard fought contest with much at stake for all. A close call, Joe and Joe neck and neck, but Tim by a whisker.
25/05/04 Billy
Email: [hidden]
I think it is time to move this seat into the "too close to call column".
Joe Fontana has a lot of grassroots support and could very well handedly win the riding. Nonetheless, it will be a very tough campaign that either of the three parties could win.
Joe Swan is a very well-known and well-respected municipal politician and the familiarity of his name is the best thing he has going for him. London's city council has been full of inefficient squabbles and big gaffes, but Mr. Swan managed to emerge unscathed. If the winds of change hit London North Centre, they could very well blow in his direction. If he does win this seat, he could become quite a high-profile MP.
Gatten, the conservative candidate, is an unknown, and I can't really comment on him because I don't know who he is. A vote split between the Joes could fall in his favour, but that would be a shame because I think he's the only candidate I wouldn't consider voting for.
NDP by a hair... i'm a believer.
23/05/04 Compassionate Conservatice
Email: [hidden]
The riding will go Conservative.
While the conservatives have been the first team to get up signs in the riding, this is not the reason why they get the nod here.
London North Centre will face the perfect confluence of factors.
1st - The National Polls are on the rise. With the increase in the party's polls, the LNC conservative vote total will rise on this factor.
2nd - A Strong Organization: the conservatives are ready to go in this election in the riding. Having signs up is one indication of this, but a strong ground team will allow them to build upon the national poll increase to make LNC a key swing riding that will follow the national tide.
3rd - Joe Fontana has not made any strong waves in the riding. The lack of a strong sitting MP can only help the conservatives here.
In short, the combination of good national polls, a strong organization & a week incumbent will allow the Conservatives to eck out a victory here.
This riding should AT LEAST be considered a toss-up, and if the polls go up to 35% for the Conservatives, it should be listed as a Conservative gain.
23/05/04 Parmenter
Email: [hidden]
London is an area where a strong local personality with sufficient stature can lure people out of their traditional boxes. Joe Swan, like Marion Boyd did in the 1990's, was a very successful and high-profile local councillor, and he has what it takes to make people who might not otherwise do it voting NDP. If the Conservatives collapse utterly there are probably not quite enough red tories to go NDP for Swan to win, but if the Conservatives are reasonably strong, then Swan has an excellent chance to triumph in a three-way race. On his own he's good for 32-37% of the vote, and if the NDP is on a roll in Ontario, he could do even better.
16/05/04 none of the above
Email: [hidden]
This will be a very tight race. The timing of the election will favour the incumbent Fontana as the university and college crowd are no longer a factor in the summer months...
Voter turnout and organization will be key.. Gatten is a far right bible thumper who appeals to the anti abortion god squad crowd. Fontana has a very strong base and remains popular. Swan, a very effective municipal councillor will not draw as many votes as hoped for but has a good chance to come up the middle as the public frowns on the Conservative-Liberal acrimony. Swan will also appeal to the youth vote.. The NDP's pro marijuana legalization stance will help him !
24/04/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be a squeaker (as everyone but the webmasters seem to realize)
Let's break down the riding and see the impact on each candidate's campaign:
Central London - has voted Liberal (left leaning Liberal) previously.
This has offered a Liberal bedrock against the Conservatives in the past. This time, however it is threatened by Joe Swan (NDP). His strength will take alot of votes from Joe in this area, and possibly a few conservatives, though the impact should be less than on the Liberals.
University Area - While part of the university is in neighbouring London West, a large enough section is in LNC that it is worth commenting on. In the last election the Liberals had some success amongst students, but the real gain was found by the NDP who almost matched Deb Mathews vote-for-vote in many student heavy areas. This tended to be the result of a strong effort by both groups to mobilize the vote, and of the efforts of the Student Council at Western to increase student voter turn-out (increasing the number of student voters by many thousands of votes ~ always important in a close race).
This time there is a strong Conservative organization on campus that could mobilize many votes, as opposed to its lack of results during the last provincial election. The NDP also will likely be able to mobilize many votes. This is probably an area where the Liberals will lose many votes, as they don't seem to be able to mobilize their organization with much success.
This area could be a non-factor in the case of a summer election, as most students would be back at home.
North Area - This affluent area offers a fertile ground for all three candidates. All three are known in the area, and it will likely mirror the national vote in terms of each of the candidates. Easily this area will be key to a victory by any of the candidates, but especially for Conservative candidate Tim Gatten.
Given the affluence, and Joe Fontana's connection as a Martin supporter, this area will likely trend towards the Conservatives.
Given this breakdown, my best guess on vote breakdown percentages is
CPC - 35 % Lib - 32% NDP - 31%, other - 2%
This is based on the north trending conservative, a summer election, and that Joe Swan will bleed away Liberal support from both Central & North London.
In the case of a fall election, I predicate CPC - 36%, NDP - 32%, Lib - 30%, other - 2%
That said, while I think the Conservatives will win, this riding is far too close to call offically, but should be recognized as too close to call instead of a liberal seat.
19/04/04 JJM
Email: [hidden]
While I agree that Swan being in the race makes things more interesting, there is no way the NDP is going to win in the North end of this conservative city. Joe Fontana has a loyal constituency and a high profile in London. While Gatten is an unknown, the mood for change and anger at the sponsorship scandal still resonates here. Swan's only role will be to make it a closer race between the Liberals and the Tories. This one is still too close to call.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Yet another that we feel is too close to call. Fontana has the edge but both the conservative and NDP candidate are top notch. The best London area Liberal up against some good opponents, just way too close to call. Possibly a very interesting 3 way race.
14/04/04 AlanSmithee
Email: [hidden]
Way too early to call it. I'm glad I don't live in LNC because I'd have no idea who to vote for:
Gatten: Former assistant to Mayor Haskett. Huge support among religious elements of the Conservatives. Strong finish in the municipal election despite being a near unknown. Excellent local candidate.
Swan: Probably the only NDP candidate that I would proudly vote for. Deserved repuatation as "The Voice of Integrity" during his time at City Hall. Would make an excellent muckraking opposition MP in the tradition of the Liberal "Rat Pack" of the 1980's.
Fontana: The only London Liberal who actually has accomplished anything during the past ten years, unlike Pat "Holidays, yes, Gay Marriage, no" O'Brien and Sue "I've never done anything" Barnes. Very popular and has support among London's substantial Italian community.
So, it's too close to call. This riding will swing based upon national trends, with Swan a huge potential upsetter.
13/04/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
With Joe Swan as their candidate, the NDP stands a terrific chance of taking this one in a tight 3-way race. Even if he fails to win, Swan will likely create enough momentum locally to pull the NDP to victory in Fanshawe, but my guess is that Swan will pull it out with close to 40% of the vote.
24/03/04 519 Observer
Email: evilatari82@yahoo.com
This one is way too close to call. Now that well-known NDP candidate Joe Swan is in the race, anything can happen. Although Conservative Tim Gatten is the weakest of three candidates, he could squeak through due to vote splittling of the center-left. I wouldn't be surprised if all three major parties got over 30% of the vote in this one.
20/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
I predict a narrow conservative win here. A strong NDP in London North Centre means good things for the Tories. Think Boyd v. Cunningham provincially. Joe Swann will ensure that the NDP bleeds enough support from Joe Fontana to allow the Conservatives to win in a squeaker.
19/03/04 ABJ
Email: [hidden]
Too early to call for anyone yet, but if Joe Swan gets the NDP nomination here, I think Fontana is going to be in for a 3-way fight that could go any way.
18/03/04 RWA
The Conservatives and NDP both have strong candidates and an outside chance at an upset, but it would have to follow a strong national trend. The smart money's on Fontana to hold on.

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