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Ottawa West-Nepean

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:24 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:57 AM 6/4/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Neil Adair
Parti Marijuana Party:
Russell Barth
Sean Casey
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Marlene Catterall
Canadian Action canadienne:
Mary-Sue Haliburton
Alexandre Legeais
Marlene Rivier

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nepean-Carleton (0.3%)
Hon. David Pratt
Ottawa West-Nepean (99.7%)
Marlene Catterall

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,255 43.34%
14,406 28.06%
10,413 20.28%
2,690 5.24%
1,582 3.08%

(2/207 polls, 211/87883 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Ottawa West-Nepean
(237/237 polls, 82970/82970 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 RG Theal
Email: [hidden]
There are many factors that point to a Conservative win here.
1) The Ottawa Citizen editorial board endorsed Casey this week.
2) As previous posters mentioned the Citizen printed that according to the John Samuel and Associates poll Casey has a 14,000 vote lead - the biggest spread in all of the Ottawa ridings.
3) He is still winning the sign war by a large margin.
4) Ottawans are still very angry over the McGuinty budget.
5) And, after weeks after meeting angry constituents door after door, some members of the Catterall campaign team are already conceding defeat.
This riding is one of the surer bets to go Conservative.
24/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I see this is showing a Liberal win.. I can't see it... I live in this riding and almost everyone I know is voting conservative and if they are really left an NDP protest vote... I think the Liberal incumbant is going to seriously lose on this one.
23/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
A tory calling someone else "self-righteous"? That's rich.
Regardless, I certainly hope the tory posters aren't clinging so tenuously to a prediction by the Citizen, known to be relatively right-wing. Trying to cite the Citizen as impartial would be like denying the Post is a conservative mouth piece or the Globe is a little to the left. It defies common sense.
Current polls have the Liberals regaining popularity, particularly in Ontario. Your people are losing support, Brad. Expect the ridings surrounding the capital to stay Liberal. As I've said before, civil servants know they'd be out of work under Harper. It's a government city and one of the largest urban areas in the nation (therefore hosting a diverse population). Tories scare these people without my casting aspersions about them. Welcome back, Marlene.
23/06/04 JAGH
Email: [hidden]
Prediction based on street signs in neighbourhood and lack of Liberal candidate profile during the campaign. Only a prediction, not necessarily how I will be voting.
22/06/04 Kelly Redlin
Email: the_real_flygirl@yahoo.com
The Ottawa Citizen Editorial Board gave a solid endorsement of Conservative Candidate Sean Casey in their June 22 edition, stating that Casey would offer a refreshing change to residents of Ottawa West-Nepean. "Ms. Catterall deserves thanks for her years of service... But the people of Ottawa West-Nepean deserve new blood in Parliament, and Sean Casey deserves the opportunity to represent them."
18/06/04 Richard Fromm
Email: [hidden]
Come one guys. The Ottawa Citzen has estimated a Casey victory by 14,000 votes. This riding is definately going Conservative.
15/06/04 Franko Zaza
Email: [hidden]
This is really should be changed to TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Even though Casey is not the strongest candidate the Conservatives could have run, local polls are increasingly pointing to a Conservtaive pick up. The lawn sign war is very tight, with Casey having a slight advantage. Also, the Dalton-factor is a big issue in the riding. The mere mention of his name causes a stream of vulgarities from the majority of Nepean residents. But still TOO CLOSE TO CALL, who ever wins, will do it with a few hundred votes.
14/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
The June 14 Ottawa Citizen article titled "Liberals poised to lose five of six seats in Ottawa, projection indicates" covers polling information done by John Samuel and Associates Inc. which indicates the conservatives will handily win Ottawa West-Nepean. Here's what it has to say: "In Ottawa West-Nepean, where Marlene Catterall is seeking re-election, her Conservative rival, Sean Casey, will win by 14,000 votes if public sentiment stays the same." 14,000 votes would make it not even close.
Oh, and Arzie - cool it on the self-righteous "No one wants right-wing nuts anywhere near the capital" crap. Most other people on this site at least put an effort in to leave our personal political prejudices at the door when making predictions. You'd be well advised to do the same.
14/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
According to a vote projection for this riding published in The Ottawa Citizen today, Conservative Sean Casey will take it by 12,000 votes. I think that may be a little high, but I do think that with Liberal support down and Conservative support up that this should at least be in the too close to call category as there is a good chance it will go Conservative, even with Marlene Catterall's personal popularity.
14/06/04 Kelly Redlin
Email: the_real_flygirl@yahoo.com
I am quite surprised to see that this website puts Marlene Catterall in the lead. A projection by John Samuel and Associates published in today's edition (June 14th) of The Ottawa Citizen indicates that Conservative Candidate Sean Casey will win by 14,000 votes if public sentiment remains the same. That's quite a decisive lead for Casey. The projection shows that the Liberals are poised to lose five of six seats in Ottawa - three more to the Conservatives and one to the NDP.
12/06/04 sign guy
Email: [hidden]
I have worked on the sign team for Reform, Alliance and now Conservative parties. Yes we have more signs on lawns than Marlene, more than I have ever seen for us in any campaign I have worked on, but I dont know how important that is in the final event. What I do think is important is whenever I am out putting up signs I am being stopped by people who give me their address and ask me to put up a sign on their lawn and in many cases they tell me that they are former Liberal supporters.
This district should be changed to Too Close to Call. The Liberal got a mere plurality in 2000, and the combined CA/PC vote plus CPC momentum could easily paint this riding blue. Too close to call at the moment.
09/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Dear Arzie...Give a break to our posters...None of us have access to riding level polling data. We have to make our predicitons on what we see on the ground. I went through Ottawa West-Nepean during the last provincial campaign and have recently. In the former, there were many more signs for Watson than you have for Catterall and more Casey signs now than those for Guzzo.
But I'm happy to oblige you on analysis. Ottawa West-Nepean is very likely to vote Conservative, as well as a number of other ridings in the city and suburbs this time. Yesterday's SES regionals suggest that the Conservatives have moved to a 10% lead in Ontario. 6% margin of error, I agree...but this isn't the only poll showing the Conservatives leading in Ontario.
Given that Catterall's margin last time was less than the provincial average, there is a good argument that Casey is likely in the lead now and that this lead is increasing. Would Ottawa be different from the provincal average? Well, in 2000 the region moved strongly to the Alliance...more than anywhere else in Ontario. Now you have a lot of irritated civil servants, tax-payers about to be told what the new health premium deductions are going to take off their pay, and strongly pro-Conservative editorial coverage by both Ottawa newspapers (including endorsements when the time comes!)
08/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
The Political Science Student would do well to take a stats course or just exercise some common-sense. Lawn signs are not indicative of voting trends. Anyone who has ever done survey work in an academic sense would know to call this the "volunteer effect". Read up on it, you'll have plenty of time as your conservative candidate won't be getting in. This is Ottawa, the vast majority of these seats go Liberal. Scott Reid and Cheryl Gallant have been the only two recent CPC embarassments to this region. No one wants right-wing nuts anywhere near the capital.
07/06/04 Le Insider
Email: [hidden]
Casey is dominating the sign war at a rate of about 4-1. Most people though seem to be undecided, which gives the Liberal an advantage in that respect. Since undecided voters generally will vote more for the incumbent, although this can change. Marlene is a very visible candidate, well know and liked, most people don’t care about her personally, they do not vote for the individual candidate.
Email: [hidden]
I find it kind of ridiculous that people insist on claiming everyone in the new Conservative party must be former Alliance just because Stephen Harper is. Sorry, but we former PC didn't all jump to the sinking Liberal Steamship Lines when he was elected leader.
Having said that, Casey has ties to both former parties, so don't be so quick to categorize him. That will serve him well in catering to both sides of the united right. Those predicting a Liberal win in Ottawa-West Nepean I think underestimate the level of anger at the Liberals over the blatant misuse of our money. As Catterall was a senior member of the Chretien cabinet, one can only assume that this will harm her more than it will help.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Why Catterall's seat is "safer" than Ottawas South and Orleans is beyond me, given her sunken 2000 percentage--must be a "Former City of Ottawa" thing? (Except that the seat's not even completely *that*--don't forget the Nepean part.) Perhaps it all depends on the consequences of incumbency, or of Marlene Rivier being no Monia Mazigh, etc...
03/06/04 Tommy Mulligan
Email: [hidden]
Marlene Catterall is going to take this Riding going away. One of the most effective constituency MPs with extremely high name recognition she has delivered federal funding for the Queensway Carleton Hospital. Mrs. Catteral is well liked even by her NDP opponent and her actions on The American deportion of Maher Arar to Syria and trip to help his family rests well with the large Muslim Community in the riding. My family has lived in this riding for over 150 years and this will be the first time they are all voting liberal. Mr Casey's strong alliance roots have alienated long time Conservatives like myself.
03/06/04 Political Science Student
Email: [hidden]
I would like to make a couple of points. First, judging by the lawn sign war, Sean Casey is dominating this riding. Signs are at least 5:1 in his favour-I can't help but see this as an indication of popularity. Secondly, everyone refers to his neophyte standing in the community; do any of these people know how involved in local athletics he is? are they aware of his standing in parliamentary circles? he is working very hard on the doors, and I commend this work-not everyone can be vaulted into the limelight alla martin; some have to work for their standing.
03/06/04 Confused
I can't figure this out. The listing on the front page as of May 3rd says this is a Liberal pickup - but on the screen above it says as of May 15th it is too close to call. I live in the riding and can tell you the Casey signs on lawns outnumber the Catterall signs by about a 5 to 1 margin.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
On paper this looks like a very likely Conservative pick up. The problem with that is the incumbant. As, we believe Victor A so accuratly put it, Caterall is one of the best riding MP's and is loved by her constituents. Couple this with a no-name conservative candidate and it looks like a Liberal keep. Problem with that is the Liberals are sinking in Ontario. Might be one of the exciting ridings to watch on the 28th.
02/06/04 FRANK
Email: asweepa@yahoo.com
Marlene Rivier is reusing her provincial signs. Lack of money? Neil Adair is young and aggressive, and will take some of her vote. But the main race will between an old and tired Marlene, and a young and fresh Sean. When Liberal observers attended the Conservative candidate selection meeting they reported to their Board that Sean was 'the most dangerous choice'. In other words, the one most likely to beat Marlene.
27/05/04 Meredith Johnston
As a long time resident of the riding I have been reading the submissions with interest. Marlene Fan's rhetoric is a bit too much for me but he/she is right on. Casey has no profile in the community to speak of and thus it is an uphill slog for him, not Marlene. People know what they're going to get with her, whereas Casey is a giant unknown.
25/05/04 CPC Forever
Email: [hidden]
Marlene Fan....which nomination were you at again? There were four candidates in Ottawa West-Nepean...not three. And although I will agree with your assessments of Mr. Curran and Mr. Gibbons - I think Mr. Casey showed he has the background, the local roots and the community involvement to give Marlene a run for her money. I just read the Citizen profile on the riding - and when you have local Dipper Alex Cullen saying Catterall is in deep trouble and the paper all but endorsing Casey as the next MP - you might want to get her campaigning a bit harder if she wants to keep the seat.
Add to the fact that Mr. Casey has strong ties to former Mayor and now local MPP Jim Watson - I wouldn't be surprised to see an endorsement for him before the campaign is over. God knows, enough of Watson's people are working on Casey's campaign team. I wouldn't worry about Marlene...according to the CTF she is in line for a $90,000 a year pension. Dalton's tax hike shouldn't hurt her too much.
23/05/04 Marlene Fan
Mr. Jackson, you are not listening to my points. I'm not saying that Marlene is going to be Justice Minister. What I'm saying is that if Conservatives in this riding think they're better off with Casey, they're crazy. I had to attend the nomination meeting to 'scout' out the opposition and the CPC picked by far the worst of the 3 candidates. Tom Curran had name recognition, community experience, local roots and the Citizen endorsed him last time...Marlene would have been in very, very tough. If Tom had too much baggage for Alliance types there was Andy Gibbons who was young, fresh, local, articulate, popular and could have run a John Baird type race against Marlene-two other people have even mentioned him on this site. Instead.....Conservatives chose Casey, a guy who's not quite local and has a hard time identifying himself. Marlene has served this community for 22 years and the CPC picked the only candidate who wasn't 100% local. If Casey wins it will be because the Province swings, not because he's he guy for the job.
Marlene has been canvassing like never before and she is determined not to go down to Casey.
And Jackson, the site has this one going Liberal.
23/05/04 TJ
Email: [hidden]
As the concert mistress of the quacking ducks in Chretien's last caucus Marlene has lost the goodwill and credibility she built up over 15 years and more in this riding. She is now yesterday's person. The liberals would have done better with a new face. Red tories won't be supporting her and Martin has very short coattails apparently. The conservatives will not be splitting their vote this time and will win.
19/05/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
Marlene Catterall's disappearance from the federal scene as a result of the Chretien loyalist purge in the Liberal Party will definatley hurt her chances for re-election. Sean Casey possesses one of the most organized and effecient campaign machines in Eastern Ontario.
And of course the wild card...tax increases by the Ontario Liberals will kill Marlene's re-eletion bid. Residents of Ottawa are so angry at Premier McGuinty, for he is one of their own and he outright lied to them when he promised not to lower our taxes, but not raise them either.
19/05/04 D. Jackson
Email: [hidden]
Oh my...is this what the Liberals in the riding have come to? Let's look at Miss Caterall's proven track record.
a) Used to be the government whip - Dumped by Martin
b) Used to sit on the Board of Internal Economy (the most powerful committee on the Hill) - dumped out of that by Martin
c) Has been openly critical of the Prime Minister - just look at this week's Hill Times where she says Martin has done nothing to erase the democratic deficit
d) When Martin was giving out billions in pre election goodies, Ottawa West-Nepean got nothing...the only Ottawa riding that received the goose egg.
We have a member here that is so far in the back benches, she might as well be holding up the curtains. I have seen Sean Casey at my door twice already and have been called by his team - I haven't seen Marlene in 16 years. Not bad for a no name candidate. I think this will be a close one on election night - and I see that this site has changed their prediction back to Too Close to Call as of May 15th. I think they are right.
18/05/04 Marlene Fan
what's laughable is the chutzpah that the Conservatives have in this riding and on this site. They have a no name outsider candidate, an office in the middle of nowhere, an inexperienced team. They are going up against a 15yr incumbent, a campaign being run by people who just ran a federal leadership contest and a party that wants to keep the seat no matter what.
There are reasons this riding is slotted Liberal on this site, it is going Liberal.
/05/04 Honest Abe
Email: [hidden]
Which poster is most laughable: Nepean Boy, Marlene Fan, or Victor? First, Victor claims to know Census data but hasn't figured-out that Anglophone seniors traditionally vote Conservative. Garry Guzzo crushed Rick Chiarelli because of the senior vote and, did quite well against Jim Watson, even though Mr. Watson is loved by seniors because of his past seniors' breakfast when he was mayor, and because they loved him from his RO noon show. Forgive poor Victor, he knows not what he writes! Now, Nepean Boy's analysis comes down to taking shots at Lisa MacLeod. He must have been beaten by Lisa in some competition because his animus towards her is too transparent and irrational for someone in the know. Let's not forgive him because let thee who has not sinned cast the first stone. Nepean Boy has been voted off the political radar! Bye-bye!!! As for Marlen Fan, let's not be too judgemental, for her bias is as clear as her poster name. Moreover, since she works for Marlene she must have a brave face and spin until the last vote has been counted. Marlene cannot win... Sean Casey wins by default!!!
12/05/04 A. Jones
Email: [hidden]
Nepean Boy, like many Liberals seem to be confused. Best look at who the candidates are in your riding Nepean Boy! Poilievre is Nepean Carleton, NOT Ottawa West-Nepean. Now that we have that straight, it should also be noted that in the 2000 election, a combined Alliance and PC vote would have taken more than 140 polls in this riding (to Marlene's 90 something). The Liberals should be concerned, they are losing voters to the NDP, and those whom they have already lost are looking to not vote at all in protest to the last 10 years of Liberal rule. It will be a tough campaign, but a Conservative win is certainly possible.
12/05/04 Reality Check
Email: [hidden]
Hey Nepean Boy: First, you responded in the Ottawa West-Nepean riding, though Mr. Insider's comments re: Lisa MacLeod were posted in Nepean-Carleton. Did you get lost in cyber space? Or, perhaps you haven't got a clue on who is running where and against whom? Anyway, you take petty shots at Lisa MacLeod and Mr. Insider but all we know of you is that you are lost and confused. Therefore, what have you ever done politically? Too chicken to mention? Anyway, Nepean is the most conservative area in Ottawa, which hurts both Marlene Catterall and David Pratt. Jim Watson was elected provincially in part because of his conservative past, fiscal prudence and a tireless campaigner. Marlene's odds are slightly better than David's, but a person with half-a-brain realized the Conservatives can win both these seats!!!
12/05/04 Victor A.
Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca
There is no doubt that Marlene is amongst the best of the best among the so called "riding MPs" if you know what I mean. She is virtually loved in her riding and has done a tremendous job. When it comes to the Conservative-Alliance candidate there is no specific comments to be made just simply because their choice is laughable, after all this is the riding that would have been the most likely to have elected a Conservative-Alliance MP, but the nomination choice could not have been any worse. At the same time, one should underline that even though Nepean is definitely more business oriented than most of Ottawa would would usually favor a Conservative Party that socially speaking this is hardly that much of a conservative place. The fact that this is the oldest riding in Ontario (population wise ) does not mean that people are conservative, in fact there is plenty of civil servants amongst people living here so people are socially liberal. Older Canadians do not like and do not wish any drastic changes. Now, some poster below was not happy with Marlene having praised Monia Mazigh's achievments, in fact that person is wrong... Monia Mazigh has excellent credentials to be a great politician, perfect education and working backgrounds and even though I do not think she will win she is just like Marlene one of these people that we admire and we love. Again, the Alliance-Conservative should focus on rural areas instead of being a laughing stock in the capital of this wonderful country. Don't be misled by some of the comments below, this is just simply pure rhetoric and does not give a clear picture for the upcoming election and the certain Liberal win.
11/05/04 Nepean Boy
Email: [hidden]
Once again the insider is out to lunch. Lisa McLeod is not a coup for the Poilievre campaign. Can the insider name me one great political success she has managed outside of her bosses campaign - which is due entirely to Harder's own abilities. In fact in Ottawa Centre, her and her husband (the Prov. candidate) supported some university student over the guy who won - not even a heavy hitter in her own riding!! This is a smart move by Harder who knows that Pratt will not be unseated by a 24 year old Calgarian. It's good for her district in terms of federal and provincial cash. In terms of McLeod, this is less than a non-factor in the election. A rainmaker McLeod is not.
11/05/04 The Outsider
Marlene Fan is absolutely right. The core of Watson's team was made up of outsiders and the reason is simple: The core group of liberals in Ottawa West-Nepean isn't strong enough to win an election.
I've heard that Marlene is barely canvassing, doesn't have a brochure and hasn't ordered her signs yet. My question is, what is she waiting for? Maybe she doesn't have the money?
I've also heard that there is a revolt within a large portion of the immigrant community within the riding and they will be parking their votes with Marlene Rivier. If Marlene bleads from her core to the dippers then the Tories will have a cake walk on their hands.
04/05/04 Marlene Fan
Email: [hidden]
au contraire Mr. Insider. Sean Casey is a no-profile 1st time candidate going against a 15 year incumbent that is extremely popular with the most important demographic in the riding, that being Seniors. Perhaps you need another equation to understand. I don't know the inner workings of the Conservative Party but they have selected two neophytes in O-W-N & Nepean-Carleton. These ridings understand government and Marlene may not be perfect but she's been a good constituency MP for 15 years. She was canvassing the riding when Casey was in High School. As for the alleged Liberal split: there is none. Watson's team is new and made up of outsiders, the core remains unchanged and motivated. As for Neil Adair and Rivier, they are both non-entities. Hey Insider - why do you think Marlene is still around, the Liberals know they are best off with her, even though she's anti-Martin....that's how strong she is. If she were weak she'd be lining up for jobs with Eugene Bellemare. Liberals are not scared in this riding and neither is Liberal HQ.
03/05/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
Dear no-name Liberal poster: Let's take a cursory look at the facts -- shall we. Neil Adair was the past Green Party candidate in the provincial election, which means he has identified vote already, lawn sign requests, knows the riding, and has some name familiarity. Now, Marlene Rivier was a decent NDP candidate in the past provincial election campaign and should garner even more votes federally thanks to being known to the riding and a minor resurgnce of the NDP in the Ottawa area. Also ditto for the marked lists. Sean Casey was also a former candidate, thereby also having marked lists and name recognition. With the merger of the right-wing parties, more volunteers and money at his disposal. And, I can only surmise he has the issues on his side: Fiscal management and prudence. Having said all this, Marlene will be tough. Her downsides are voter fatigue, Adscam, the Provincial and Federal Liberals in Ottawa West are split, the riding is more conservative, and residents like their provincial and federal reps to be from different parties: vintage Ontario-Canada phenomenon. This all equals a Conservative party victory. Sorry, but I can add...can you?
Email: [hidden]
Sorry to rain on everyone's parade but 1 + 1 will not equal 2 in this riding for Conservatives. Marlene is in touch with the Senior's in this riding and has them in her pocket. This is THE most important factor in this election as its the oldest riding in Ontario. They will not turn her in for Sean Casey unless it looks like the Conservatives will form a minority - which isn't going to happen. Marlene is underestimated by everyone on this site and for no good reason, Conservatives don't understand that you don't hold a seat for 15 years by accident - she is connected to the community and popular. Sean Casey will not be the next MP for Ottawa West-Nepean, not now, and not in four years.
28/04/04 B. stewart
Email: [hidden]
I agree this riding has Tory win written all over it. While this riding only split the vote in 2000, there is a reason for that...changing demographics. The development in the west end of Ottawa is becoming a counter-part to the 905 Region. While the more liberal/socialist Ottawa residents live in the downtown core or the east end, the west side seems to be where business people are living these days. The whole Nepean/Kanata area is starting to resemble the Burlington/Oakville area very much and you don't see high left wing support in those two cities.
22/04/04 Reality Check
Email: [hidden]
Dear somebody in Ottawa: I would advise you to quit while you're ahead, but all of your submissions are bunk! Honestly, do you dream these things up? First, Mazingh is not a credible candidate for anything, and neither is Marlene anymore. Watson took the riding because he is a blue-Liberal with high profile, who tirelessly worked to win the support of the riding. Marlene though likable, will not survive with her left-leanings, ignoring the riding, praise of Chretien and lack of a strong team. Sorry, but you should rename yourself "Nobody in Ottawa"!
19/04/04 Remic's Rapid Runner
Email: [hidden]
While the previous poster is correct that this would have been a slam dunk for the Tories had the young and dynamic Andy Gibbons won the nomination, one still has to give Sean Casey the edge. He comes across very well and should contrast well with tired Marlene. Even Liberals wanted her out and her tenure is beginning to smell of careerism.
19/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Bye Marlene. Plop this suburban riding down anywhere in surburban Canada and the same thing happens -- it follows the trend. Considering the fact that the combined right vote consistently topped the Libs for a while and that a CPC trend is likely given ADSCAM and its awareness here, welcome Sean Casey, M.P.
19/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
That Marlene was so impressed with Monia Mazigh to the point she was willing to surrender her seat in Parliament speaks volumes about the calibre of candidate the NDP has found for itself in Ottawa South. "Insider" should not be so quick to write her off (and reducing her husband to "a former terrorist suspect" is just a pretty low move).
This "increasingly right wing riding" redently turfed out Garry Guzzo and replaced him with Jim Watson: hardly a shift to the right.
I say this riding's still too close to call. Marlene could end up being the only seat in town the Liberals can save (Ottawa Vanier excluded). Ottawa Centre's going NDP and Ottawa South's not going to elect another McGuinty. The rest are likely to go Conservative.
15/04/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
I have recently learned that the reason Ms. Catterall's nomination papers were submitted so late was that she was actively involved in recruiting Monia Mazigh, newly nominated NDP Candidate in Ottawa South, and husband of former terrorist suspect Maher Arar.
This is quite interesting considering Ms. Catterall was very active in pressuring officials to free Mr. Arar from his prison in Syria.
Simple conclusion is that Marlene has drifted too far to the left, if she's willing to allow a dipper run as a liberal, for the growingly conservative riding and she likely doesn't have the drive to campaign hard if she wasn't really interested in the job again anyways.
04/04/04 Dave S.
Email: [hidden]
Conservative, hands down. The combined CA-PC vote topped the Grits by 2000+ votes in the last election, and that will only be higher with Adscam and a united Conservative party giving people more incentive to go that way. Catterall has been a lacklustre M.P. Granted, not everyone is cabinet material, but she's been around 15 years, and hasn't made a name for herself in committee or other parliamentary work either, and has zero media profile. This was also one of the largest, richest, and best organized CA ridings in Ontario, and its even better under one party -I mention this because every election win starts locally, and with many volunteers and a deep warchest. This is the surest bet for the Conservatives in urban Ottawa.
03/04/04 Pat Druken
Email: patdruken@yahoo.ca
The Conservative's made a bid mistake when they chose Sean Casey to represent them here. The candidate he beat, Andy Gibbonson, was the only chance the new Tory's had at beating Marlene Catterall's Liberal Machine.
And Sean's team has done little-to-nothing to reach out to them. Gibbonson's team was by far the strongest, and most experienced. Now, they've lost a great opportunity at winning the old seat of Sir John A. and Robert Borden back for the Tories.
02/04/04 Honest Abe
Email: [hidden]
Though Sean Casey is a relative unknown, he should be able to take this seat. The riding is becoming more conservative with a further shift toward the Nepean side. I understand that Ms. Catterall has assembled her regular cast of workers, who have not been tried and tested, due in large part to the former vote-splitting parties on the right and the federal Liberals past popularity in Ontario. Unless Ms. Catterall can campaign like her provincial counterpart, Jim Watson and her team can run a flawless campaign, Sean Casey will be heading to Parliament.
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Liberal on Life Support #3.
Similar vote profile to Wellington-Halton Hills and Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge. There's probably a better shot of drawing off red Tories in an urban riding, but a higher risk of losing voters to the NDP.
Martin still has fences to mend with the public service. If the largest union has started strike action by the time the election is called, the political price to pay could be this riding.

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