Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:07 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:33 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Stephen Butcher
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Diane Marleau
Gerry McIntaggart
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Luke Norton
Dave Starbuck

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nickel Belt (10.4%)
Raymond Bonin
Sudbury (89.6%)
Hon. Diane Marleau

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,115 56.99%
7,723 19.90%
5,214 13.44%
2,947 7.59%
807 2.08%

Nickel Belt
(24/190 polls, 7427/57476 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(193/193 polls, 63956/63956 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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22/06/04 Ethan
Email: [hidden]
I'll call this one for the Liberals, although I think it will be much tighter than past elections.
First off, Butcher has been making several inflammatory comments lately, first on the issue of foreign doctors (he said he was against it at an all-candidates debate) and then running a huge smear campaign against a popular M.P. accusing her of pretty everything under the sun, and going so far as to try and tar her with the same vile lies the Conservatives put out late last week about Martin supporting child pornography. Horrible.
The NDP will come off stronger as well, but people should remember that McIntaggart lost his re-election to City Council in November and is not that highly regarded by local voters. Moreover, the inheritance tax scheme is a non-starter in this riding where people still shudder at the mention of Bob Rae.
Marleau should take this riding albeit with a very slim margin.
Never have and never will vote NDP but looks like Marleau might be in trouble. The NDP candidate is running a good low key campaign and has great name recognition (former councilor). Diane claims she can represent change for the riding is just not being bought by the voters. Diane will lose not only because her husband is hated by most of the business community but because the Conservatives will steal enough votes to let the NDP slip in. Layton needs only to get his social butt in town to help his candidate solidify the union vote. FedNor people are helping Marleau but are only pushing the business community farther away from her. Keep your eyes on this race as it will shape up to be more interesting than you think.
13/06/04 david gates
Email: [hidden]
In this election Marleau has few signs up and there are Stephen Butcher signs on lawns that had Rick's sign last fall. A blue tidal wave is looking to sweep through Ontario carrying Stephen Butcher to Ottawa and Dianne Marleau out to pasture where she can continue to be useless in not so well deserved retirement.
05/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
WEHT Diane Marleau? Nobody ever hears from her since Chretien dumped her from cabinet. She just minds her own biz as an independent-minded Sudbury constituency worker. She's so unheard-of in the big outside world, it's no wonder that she's safe as milk and Beefheart. In a funny way, if the Grits *really* collapse like haywire, I can see her surviving as an Elsie Wayne among Ontario Liberals...
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Marleau is quite safe. Northern Ontario will be a Liberal stronghold unless their fortunes really tank. People in the north tend to vote for the candidate as opposed to the party and Marleau is popular. Watch the NDp candidate take a good chunk of the vote, but Marleau will hold about 45%.
/05/04 Alex Ersken
Its laughable to think this riding would change hands. Expect Marleau to take this seat. She popular and the city respects the work she's done. Marleau to win.
13/05/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
Should be a safe seat for the Liberals but Gerry McIntaggart puts the NDP into contention, despite previous results. If the NDP builds up a head of steam in N. Ontario (which is not out of the question) then McIntaggart might get the little extra momentum to pull off an upset.
20/03/04 Craig
Locally popular MP should easily be re-elected, as the safest Liberal seat in Northern Ontario (one they don't have to worry about the NDP or Conservatives). It won't even be close although not as large of a romp as Rick Bartolucci's thrashing of the competition back in October. Predicted results: Liberal 56%, NDP 22%, Conservative 20%, others 4%.
19/03/04 Ben Cassares
Email: [hidden]
History indicates that this seat will stay Liberal unless the sky falls in for Martin and co. The NDP vote is likely to improve from 2000 but not enough to take it.

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