Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:40 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:12 PM 6/11/2004

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Previous Submissions:

  • Feb & Mar 04
  • Apr 04

    (Links? See sponsorship details.)
    (Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
    Loftus Cuddy
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    Jim Harris
    Jack Layton
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Dennis Mills
    Marcell Rodden
    Parti Marijuana Party:
    Scott Yee

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Beaches-East York (5.3%)
    Hon. Maria Minna
    Toronto-Danforth (94.7%)
    Dennis Mills

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    21,208 52.09%
    11,190 27.48%
    3,276 8.05%
    3,099 7.61%
    1,944 4.77%

    Beaches-East York
    (13/211 polls, 3799/75135 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    (180/183 polls, 68240/68684 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

  • Authorized by the Official Agent for the Toronto Danforth Federal NDP
    24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
    Email: [hidden]
    Yet again NDP cheerleaders are reading too much into the tiny bit of good news they occasionally get. The Compass poll that showed Layton way ahead is revisiting the riding again late this week and will show Mills is within the statistical anomally (about 7% behind) and is closing in on Jack. As much as Layton has benefitted from all the free national exposure, Mills has been putting an amazing campaign together -- its like an industrial operation. I don't think you can concede this to Layton -- yet.
    23/06/04 Manuel Bure
    Email: manny_bure@yahoo.ca
    I attended the recent Toronto-Danforth all-candidate's debate with some friends and neighbours. We were all going to vote NDP, but after Jack Layton's performance in that debate, we've decided to switch our votes to the Green Party instead. If Jack's performance in that debate was an accurate reflection of the man, what a mistake the NDP made in choosing him as their 'national' leader. If every undecided eligible voter in the Riding (with a modicum of intelligence and with critical faculties in working order) were to have heard Jack Layton speak that evening, we're confident that they too would also decide to cast their vote in a direction other than orange. How did this self-aggrandizing motor-mouth and petty city councillor manage to become the leader of a 'national' political party? 'Slick Jack' spent most of the evening promoting himself and selling the audience a bill of municipal goods rather than address issues of national importance and national concern. Given his performances at the NDP rally on Sunday night and repeated again the following Monday evening at Jimmy Simpson Community Centre, how can this shallow and parochial candidate be trusted to keep his promises or simply be believed? There's no doubt that the Green's are not going to win the Riding of Toronto-Danforth, but there just may be enough "left" and "environmental" voters who might cast their ballots for Jim Harris of the Greens and, by doing so, carry out their civic duty and serve the public interest by putting Jack back into the municipal box from whence he came and where he obviously belongs. My prediction is that strategic thinking voters in the Riding (who don't want the Conservatives and Steven Harper to win a majority of seats) are onto ( or will quickly be onto) Jack's menu of mesmerizing tricks and, come election day, they will either vote Liberal or Green instead of NDP, thereby putting Dennis Mills over the top by a narrow margin and making the outcome of this local battle the banner headline in the next-morning's news across the country. Stay tuned!
    23/06/04 Full Name
    Email: [hidden]
    Dennis Mills by 3,000 votes. I mean you can't really trust the polls anyways I usually say anything to get the person off the phone as quickly as possible or anything to throw them off. Besides Dennis Mills has a lot of the greek vote and other ethnic minorities in the riding and last time I checked they outnumbered the NDP by 60,000 people in this riding...now all the Liberals have to do is get them out to vote and this will go the other way on election day.
    21/06/04 Tyking
    Email: tking@uts.utoronto.ca
    I think people are putting too much into that COMPAS poll - let's look at it - it was a sample of 300 people, 18% of whom either don't vote or were undecided. So it basically said that they found 130 people who liked Jack Layton, which isn't really hard to do. Looking at Dennis, he really does have a lot of support in the riding - look at the last election, where he won by 10,000 votes - that's a lot of room for the NDP to make up. So while I admit that it'll be extremely close, I have to say that Dennis' record in the riding will overshadow the smear campaigns being run against him and he'll pull it off by a narrow, narrow margin.
    20/06/04 MSH
    Email: [hidden]
    A previous lister refers to Layton's "solid performance" during the debate. Which debate was he watching? Everyone I've spoken to, including NDP supporters, agrees that Layton was the worst of the four, in both debates. But even if Martin had been very good, which he wasn't, it probably wouldn't have been enough to save Dennis Mills. I was at a 70th birthday party for a long-time NDPer this afternoon, someone who lives in Trinity-Spadina and is campaigning for Olivia Chow. There I heard from an NDP insider that a recent internal NDP poll shows Chow and Tony Ianno to be running neck and neck. This confirms earlier information which I reported a couple of days ago. However, another NDPer said that internal polls in Danforth show Layton to be running well ahead of Mills. So I'm changing my earlier call on this one. Colour Danforth orange.
    20/06/04 Will
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton's performance at the debate has basically put the nail in the coffin for Mills.
    20/06/04 Boag
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton might have done much raise the NDP by about 5% in ridings that they cannot win nationwide, but I do not believe that he comes across well as an individual. In the past week, I have seen a lot of Mills signs go up and Layton signs come down. I still think that he will lose his seat and Dippers will picking a new leader in a year.
    20/06/04 MSH
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton's unimpressive performance in the debates won't hurt him here, whatever damage it may be doing to the NDP elsewhere. My information from people living in the riding is that he is a shoo-in, the only person disagreeing with this assessment being a member of the Liberal riding executive. So I'm changing my call on this one: colour it orange.
    15/06/04 C. Hubley
    Email: [hidden]
    Any doubt that Layton would take his seat should be eliminated by Layton's solid performance in the debate, and Martin's, which was basically a sad stuttering joke. Mills has no help from his leader in this respect, while Layton has no such liability. It might have been a different story had Jim Harris the Green Party leader (and the Greens' candidate in this riding) been in the debate - though he's just as likely to have cut votes away from Mills with a good debate performance.
    15/06/04 J. Schmoe
    Email: [hidden]
    At the end of the day, Dennis will win this riding in a walk. Never underestimate the power of the candidate actually living and working in the riding. Jack has been a ghost here lately - well, actually, he's always been a ghost in this riding - and Marilyn Churley, Paula Fletcher, et. al just can't compete with Dennis.
    14/06/04 Steven Lloyd
    Email: zeker@yahoo.com
    Oh, this has just got to break a bunch of liberal hearts.
    The compas poll has Jack leading with 53% of the vote and Mills is trailing with only 33% of the vote. A twenty point spread means that, as usual, Canadians will elect an opposition party leader no matter what seat they run in.
    13/06/04 Matthew
    Email: ctrl190@yahoo.ca
    I'm glad to see the prediction change in both Toronto-Danforth and Trinity-Spadina to the NDP. Both seats are going to the NDP, hands down - and I think the most interesting races will be Parkdale-High Park and Beaches- East York, where either the Liberals or NDP could win or lose by a few hundred votes.
    As for Toronto-Danforth, internal independent polling (I think it was done by either Compas or Ipos-Reid, I forget) says that Jack is leading by atleast 20%. From distrupting Olivia and Jack's press conference, to investing his personal pocket money into billboards along the Danforth, Dennis Mills is obviously worried. Mills is playing smart by using the Clarity Act against Jack, but very few residents in the riding know what the heck the Clarity Act is, and are more concerned about funding for cities, healthcare and the various Liberal corruption allegations.
    Jack is gonna win T-D, by no landslide, but by a comfortable margin. Expect Dennis to get the cushy job as the Canadian Ambassador to the Vatican, appointed to him a few months after his loss.
    12/06/04 Mortimer
    Email: [hidden]
    It took long enough to call this one for the NDP...but now a COMPAS poll (the house pollster of the anti-NDP National Post) says Layton will beat Mills 53-33, with the Conservative candidate at 10% and Green Party leader Jim Harris at 4%. Interestingly, Simon noted houses average close to $500,000 in Riverdale. However, gentrification actually BENEFITS the NDP in the pre-merged city of Toronto, as it draws more proportionately from middle class professionals than from the working class. Indeed, the COMPAS poll showed Layton's highest level of support from people with postgraduate degrees and Mills' greatest support coming from people who aren't university grads.
    13/06/04 Trojan Horse
    Email: [hidden]
    The National Post published a poll on Friday June 11th that shows Mr. Layton with a twenty point lead. 53% Layton 33% Mills and 10% Cuddy. The Green party is barely showing on the radar. While Mr. Mills is far more present in the neighbourhood than any other party, his presence in the bars of the Danforth is not serving him well as a campaign strategy, however much it may appeal to his social instincts.
    10/06/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    This riding can now be changed from the "too close to call category". The COMPASS poll released today confirms that Jack Layton has a 20 point lead over Dennis Mills. There may be some vote shift over the next week and a half, but Jack is on his way to Queen's Park as this riding's next MP.
    10/06/04 DK
    Email: dale.kirby@utoronto.ca
    The COMPAS poll done for National Post/Global Television/CanWest and reported on June 11 shows Layton creaming Mills by a margin of 20%!! -- the poll shows 53% support for Layton vs 33% for Mills.
    Isn't it time to face the reality that Mills is toast?
    10/06/04 The Dude
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton will win this and he deserves to. Before the spectre of a Layton victory in this riding became clear in spring 2003 - Dennis Mills was better known as a rotten MP - his main issues were farming, promoting a flat tax and other esoteric issues of no consequence to the vast majority of his riding. He'd only won because the NDP has been a non-force in national politics since 1988. But even then, NDP candidates put up a good fight here even when the party was tanking in Ontario. That's changed in this election as the NDP looks poised to win b/n 16 and 20 per cent nationally, and in Ontario. After Jack won the NDP leadership and announced his intention to run here, suddenly Dennis Mills woke up and realized he'd have to get off his butt and do some real work. The result has been typical Mills - a Stones concert, a property he said would be turned into housing (but still hasn't) and a whole lot of hot air about the waterfront. Mills' record speaks for itself - besides the Stones concert (in which he played only a minor role but took all the credit in front of the cameras), he's delivered a whole lot of nothing for this riding. The waterfront will never be improved at the rate he's been working. Also keep in mind Mills has also ticked off the majority of this riding who are either gay or are very supportive of same sex marriage. The folks Mills hangs out with - who make up the bulk of his supporters - are not representative of this riding.
    10/06/04 Marvin the Martian
    Email: [hidden]
    Game set and match to Layton. The polling numbers released today say it's 53% for Layton, 33% for Mills, 10% for Cuddy and 4% for Harris. Personally, i expect a bit of that Laytonmania to bleed away by election day (some to the Liberals and some to the Greens) but this is a lockfor the Dippers. What will be interesting is if Harris can beat Cuddy. That's about the only horserace in this riding.
    10/06/04 David C
    Email: [hidden]
    The Post -- The POST -- published a poll today that had Layton ahead 53-33 over Mills in the riding. The anecdotal evidence bears it out.
    10/06/04 Greg Dwulit
    Email: [hidden]
    According to the National Post, published on June 11, 2004: "Mr. Layton has 53% support among decided voters in Toronto Danforth, while Liberal Dennis Mills has 33%. Conservative candidate Loftus Cuddy has 10% and Jim Harris, the national leader of the Green party, has 4% support." This poll was created by COMPAS. Jack Layton will win this riding on June 28.
    10/06/04 The Lobbyist
    Email: [hidden]
    Today's National Post/Global COMPAS Poll:
    Layton 53%
    Mills 33%
    Cuddy 10%
    Harris 4%
    There's no way Mills is getting back up off the mat. Especially not with Jack getting to play "cat amongst the pigeons" during the debate on Tuesday night.
    10/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
    Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
    This riding is going NDP. Based on a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, Jack has a commanding 20% lead on Mills. Voters in Toronto Danforth will like the profile of having a party leader representing their riding. NDP gain.
    10/06/04 Brad
    Email: [hidden]
    I predicted a Layton victory a while back, but now I've got some more numbers to back it up. A Compas poll released today found this:
    "Mr. Layton has 53% support among decided voters in Toronto Danforth, while Liberal Dennis Mills has 33%. Conservative candidate Loftus Cuddy has 10% and Jim Harris, the national leader of the Green party, has 4% support."
    09/06/04 Leftie
    Email: [hidden]
    With the Liberals fumbling the ball so badly in an election that is very winnable for them, Jack Layton should be able to score a convincing win here. We are seeing an increasing desperate Mills doing anything he can to be seen, and an increasingly confident party leader with a much more positive campaign. The head of the folks on the left is heading to the Hill.
    09/06/04 Graydon
    Email: [hidden]
    The fact that this riding is still seen as too close to call is a testament to Mills strength in this riding. He was seen as in trouble two elections in a row and came out on top pretty handily. Given the profile of both candidates, and Layton years as a councillor I think the argument that party leaders almost always win will not apply in this riding.
    This campaign is a local fight and Mills has shown the wherewithall to win 4 previous times. As for the stunts Mills pulls, Layton certainly isn't above being a media whore himself. Too bad for him he wasn't the won that landed the Pope and the Rolling Stones.
    Mills will win in a squeaker.
    08/06/04 Olive_Branch
    Email: [hidden]
    I think the polling numbers and the dynamics of this riding speak for themselves. This will be an easy win for Layton and the NDP.
    06/06/04 Jacob Litman
    Email: [hidden]
    It will be a hard fought race between an incredibly well-financed Liberal, but Jack will take Toronto-Danforth. The NDP cannot afford to lose this riding, and they will make sure to clinch this seat. Internal independent polling has Jack leading by a fair margin, and the sign ratio (though about equal between Jack and Mills on the main streets) is about 4:1 for Jack in the high-voter turnout areas like Riverdale, and even traditional Liberal and Tory strongholds like East York.
    05/06/04 B.O.
    Email: [hidden]
    Some people have expressed some concern over the spoiler effect of the Green Party candidate in this riding. Firstly, last election the Green candidate received only 769 votes in this riding. With the Green leader running here, that number may increase slightly. What this means is that it could have a spoiler effect if the race is very close to begin with. If however, Layton or Mills wins by a large margin, then the Green candiate would not be the blame for the outcome, whether the votes came from Mills or Layton. Secondly, with regards to the concern that leaders always win their seats, yet now there are two leaders running in the same riding -- this has also happened before federally, and there was no paradox when this happened. In 2000, the then-leader of the Greens ran against Stockwell Day in the September 2000 by-election. We know who won that by-election(made easier by the fact that the Liberals did not run a candidate in that by-election), and it was not complicated by the fact that two leaders were running in one riding. What this means is that the principle is that leaders of one of the mainstream parties (in which the Greens are going to have to be excluded, considering they often drop even below the Ipsos-Reid 5% support threshold) always win, not leaders of just any old party in existance. In any event, the net effect of this is that Layton should be able to win his seat. If he does not, he should only be forced to resign if his party's national seat number drops or stays much the same. He should stay on if there is any type of increase in their overall numbers, as he should take credit for that. Of course, if the overall numbers are increasing, that itself is increasing his own chances for a seat, so I suppose striving for national success is his best hope for personal victory.
    05/06/04 GDS
    Email: [hidden]
    As a former third party candidate in the last federal election, a political junkie and a long time resident of Danforth Avenue, I am very excited to bear witness to this race. I defy anyone to find a more intriguing race in this election. The electorate is highly polarised between loyal Liberal diehards and a rejeuvenated NDP machine that is flooding into the riding from other ridings. Dennis Mills faces a two pronged attack and is in great danger of bleeding support from both sides of the spectrum. The Red Tory faction that voted for Mills in the previous election may not succumb to the fear tactics that served so well last time around and may be prepared to return to the Tory fold.To his left Mills may face a similiar bleeding. His indefensible decision to obstain himself from the same sex marriage vote will offend both the gay and Catholic constituency in the riding. Mr Layton carries his own perception problem in the riding as many still are offended by the fact that Mr Layton and his wife ,Olivia Chow, are percieved to have ripped off the system by living in co-op housing over a decade ago. Mr Layton was vilified by The Toronto Sun, which implied that Mr. Layton was taking advantage of subsidised housing. The reality is that Mr. Layton was in fact subsidising others so they could live in the same building for far less rent than he was paying. However, the perception lingers, and it may yet come back to haunt Mr. Layton. Another issue is that while Mr. Mills is highly present in the riding, Mr. Layton is forced to be absent by virtue of his duties as party leader. As a voter its an interesting point. Which is more powerful, the guy I see on the street or the guy I see on T.V.? My call is Layton by a whisker, factoring in an historic trend for Canadians to vote for party leaders.
    02/06/04 Simon
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton will win. Mills will be close. The interesting feature will be Loftus Cuddy's vote total as Conservative. This riding is well described by others except no one mentions that house prices in half the riding are now all over 1/2 a million. While there are no conservative lawn signs due to fear of social ostracism - the vote total in 2004 may change that for the next election.
    01/06/04 C. Hubley
    Email: [hidden]
    Because of Miller's strong support and snubbing of Martin, because of the way the NDP pours all their energy into the ridings they think they can win, and because of Churley and her provincial minions and Fletcher all hitting the street for Jack, he'll take this, but not by as much as I had thought.
    The Liberals just wasted three full days of Layton's time by spamming the reporters on his tour with Quebec questions that got him to speak up about the Clarity Act and an ex-separatist running for the NDP in Quebec. That is 10% of the remaining campaign time. That is time directly taken away from the NDP's agenda, and it shows Jack up for being a novice campaigner.
    That time is going to come off Layton's time in the riding.
    What's going to win it for Jack is that the voters will never see Jim Harris: Jack won't show up to debate in the riding, and the Greens have been locked out of the TV debates despite their full slate of 308 - while the Bloc, who almost no English Canadians can vote for, get 25% airtime.
    27/05/04 Gabe DeRoche
    Email: gabekicksass@hotmail.com
    It seems to be fairly unanimous that Jack Layton and the NDP will take this riding. Any predictions as to how the Liberals or Conservatives will try to prevent this from happenening? I.E. What tactics might they use to sway public opinion in their direction. For instance, one possible Liberal strategy might be to attempt to portray Jack Layton as an MP who would be indifferent to local issues given that he is a party leader with - as cliche as it is - bigger fish to fry. This would likely be a concern for the residents of this riding, as their is a strong sense of community and community needs seem to be at the forefront of political discussion in this riding - such as the importance of small businesses and more urban issues. The NDP would be wise to provide Layton's track record as highly successful city-councillor emphasise his position as one of the most popular politicians in the city. The Liberals should provide as examples of Mills' successes World Youth Day and the Rolling Stones Concert post-SARS. However, the NDP shows a clear advantage in this riding. The Conservatives might as well spend their money in a different riding, as this one will certainly not go to them.
    28/05/04 DS
    Email: peec22@yahoo.com
    Live in the riding.
    There is a feeling in the air of desperation.
    For months, Layton has had large, well designed, billboards throughout the riding. Then you get Dennis Mills trying to match the effort by pasting his "Save The Waterfront" signs on any empty wall he could find. Mills' pre-election signs were cynical at best and looked cheap.
    With Churley cruising to victory provicially, and Layton backed Fletcher taking the city council seat(in the south portion of the riding) over a Mills backed candidate, who ran 3rd, the writting is on the wall.
    Layton should take close to 50% of the vote, 60% if everything goes right in the campaign.
    I hate underestimating a wild card like Mills, but I think he would have to pay to have the ballot boxes stuffed to escape Layton's challenge.
    28/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Proudly, I can say the NDP will take this seat. It is now Jack Layton's time. Dennis Mills is fighting for his political life, and will lose for a number of reasons. His confusing stance on the island airport (which is now a federal issue) will bother some voters. The key figure in this riding will be David Miller. He is sporting an 80 percent approval rating and will no doubt send his workers out to help Jack. Mills has a lot of the Greek support, but he is in for the toughest fight against a party leader.
    I predict Layton will win handily.
    27/05/04 MSH
    Email: [hidden]
    Dennis Mills is in for a tough battle but might just manage to stave off Jack Layton. Mills is a bit of a dingbat but a good constituency man, and his organization should be able to pull the vote. A key question is how well the Greens will do here and whom they'll take votes from.
    27/05/04 B.A.S.
    Email: [hidden]
    Layton is going to cruise to victory here. He has a very high public profile and his one misstep so far, the dying homeless people comment, is not fatal.
    Layton has re-energized the New Democrats across the country, put together a good team and the voters of the area are shrewd enough to realize their local interests are best served by Jack Layton.
    27/05/04 TW
    Email: darrwinn@canada.com

    Dennis Mills will win by 5,000 votes. Layton does not live in the district; people remember that he held almost the least municipal constituents meetings. Jack, despite Olivia, has but token Chinese-speaking voter support.
    Mark my word: the inheritance tax will scare off professionals and two-income family unionists!
    27/05/04 Grant
    Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
    I'd damn near like to see the Tory get elected because of his name. Perhaps one day Cuddymania will sweep the land..:). But on to prognisticating.
    Walkign with a friend on the Danforth, I came across Dennis Mills' HQ in the old Shoppers Drug Mart store. Canadian, Greek and Olympic flags were flapping (and pandering) on the roof, and there sat the great man, alone at a series of empty tables (it was late in the evening). And the question struck me as to what forces would compel Toronto-Danforth to re-elect this guy?
    He's perhaps among the few Toronto area MPs who can claim something that he's done for the city. SARStock is, well, something. Would've been a great promotional tool for the city had it actually got good media coverage outside of Ontario, but it's hardly enough to label Mills as invaluable.
    Now he's the lieutenant for the latest resurrection of the Toronto waterfront. Which begs the question, which have there been more of? Farewell 'The Who' concert tours or Toronto waterfront resurrections? And that recent Globe and Mail article reminding people of a 1972 election Liberal campaign promise to revitalise the waterfront won't do Dennis any wonders.
    And now Martin won't drive a stake through the heart of the airport bridge? Oi. Does the PM want his man to get re-elected or not?
    I have to concur with previous posters. Whatever Jack's faults, he's a party leader, he's not part of a party leading a tired, old government. I don't think anyone can claim that Dennis Mills is untouchable, no matter how loud he toots his own horn. It won't be easy, but if this riding can take 27% of the vote when the NDP was at it's nadir, with the party chief and polling numbers twice what they were in 2000, Dennis will make it rough, but Jack will take it.
    27/05/04 Initial
    Email: [hidden]
    Who are Cuddy and Harris? Why are they bothering to run? This will be a fight to the end. I agree with 2 of the more recent posts. One with respects to the composition and break up of the neighbourhoods and the second because there will be so much NDP support, they will have every union, gay, treehugger and other lefty supporting Layton it will be so hard for Layton not to lose.
    I think what will make the difference in this riding is the swing protest vote against Mills. As much as I don't like Layton, although he is a good orator (seen him at Ryerson), he will win this riding by the same 2500-3000 margin that the NDP lost to Mills in the last election.
    26/05/04 Peter M.
    Email: [hidden]
    It would be nice to see Layton win, but the Greens will ruin it for him. A tight race, but Green voters will have their day in the sun when they ruin Jack's election night and send a much less environmentally-concious Mills to Parliament.
    26/05/04 The Lobbyist
    Email: [hidden]
    Yes Jack... you DO get to be a leader with a seat at last.
    Having said that, I don't fault the EP for waiting out the Layton honeymoon, which ends with the official NDP platform unveiling tomorrow, before calling the shot in this riding.
    All of the points already made in this thread are on the money, but let me add one more to the pile:
    There are plenty of ridings in the 416 where the Tories are (gasp) going to tacitly help the local NDP candidate. You may remember this trick from such campaigns as: The 2003 and 1999 Ontario Provincial Elections and the 2001 Beaches East York By-Election. The strategy goes like this: Layton takes votes and seats from Martin and the Liberals... let's keep Layton around.
    Sorry Loftus. Not only are NDP volunteers crazy... but us Tories are just so darned desperate to get the Liberals below that magic 154 that we will make a pact with the devil to get it done.
    26/05/04 Pape-Danforth Resident
    Email: [hidden]
    The lawn signs have begun to go up, and I am noticing a lot of Layton signs in the former East York (the part of the riding where Mills supposedly has an edge). In the former City of Toronto (mostly south of Danforth), there appear to be 3-4 Layton signs for every Mills sign. On my street, a number of neighbours that had Liberal signs up during the last provincial election now have Layton signs. I recognize that it is still very early in the campaign, but I am hearing from my neighbours that none of them have been too impressed by Mills in the last year or so. His actions in respect of the waterfront, affordable housing, and same-sex marriage do not appear to have gone over very well. I do not think the election will be a cakewalk for Layton, and Mills may very well surprise us, but early indications are not good for the Liberal team.
    26/05/04 RR
    Email: [hidden]
    Dennis Mills is seen as an ineffective politician whose stunts range from the desperate to the strange - and the community is sick of it. There are huge signs up now on how Mills is going to save the Waterfront. He mused he was going to run for the Liberal leadership. He didn't get us health funding during SARS - instead he went on a tour of Broadview Chinatown and brought the Rolling Stones in at taxpayers expense. Also, he caved to OCAP (which mortified his constituents) and then said he'd quit if he didn't do what OCAP wanted (which he didn't.) He only comes out at election time.
    The other factor is that Marilyn Churley is extremely popular and highly visible. Also - by day four of the campaign it's become clear that the NDP are far more organized than anyone has given credit for.
    25/05/04 golaki
    Email: werty@yahoo.com
    LAyton will take this riding. I know I have lived here for years.. In fact i am a few doors down from Laytons office
    This is a stratified riding. The south is solidly behind LAYTON - These are Asian/Gays and Herbalifes ( No offense). North of Danforth is where the race should be hot. Here there is a mizture ethnic voters (Italian/Greek/Muslim) this riding has a lot of tenants. Tis riding votes NDP provincially and Conservative municaplly. If Layton does well Natioanlly he will scoop up his riding especially if Martin Implodes.
    25/05/04 Marty
    Email: [hidden]
    Ok with all of the serious analysis going on here, I offer one simple thought. There is not one single union member in CANADA that will allow Layton to lose. If the NDP loses every other seat in T.O., they won't let their leader lose. People will be coming in from everywhere to make sure he wins. And they play real dirty. Intimidation, destroyed signs, police involvement. Dennis Mills will not be able to focus on his own campaign he will be too busy coping with the thugs that the NDP will be throwing at him. Dennis is a good guy but he will be badly out volunteered. Same for Beaches EY and Trinity Spadina. Ask anyone that ever ran against Bob Rae or Ed Broadbent. NDP volunteers are crazy. (See 2001 Beaches EY byelection)
    24/05/04 J. Cherniak
    Email: jason_cherniak@yahoo.ca
    I just moved to this riding for the summer, and I can tell you that Layton will not win unless he runs an amazing federal campaign. The first thing I noticed was pictures of Dennis Mills' face plastered everywhere in the riding. I went to Mills' campaign openning/nomination, and the room was full of people of different colours and financial positions - he will have signs in all the Danforth store windows. The pro- and anti-Martins are all united behind Mills, and I can promise you that the party will put in every available resource.
    For Layton to win his seat, he will have give up on at least 5 others across the country. Meanwhile, every day I walk by the NDP campaign office on Pape, and every day nothing is happening - they were closed on a Saturday! The NDP does not know how to run local campaigns, and I do not think that they will pull this off.
    23/05/04 CC
    I think Layton will win by 3,000 votes due to the outrage over the sponsorship scandal and Mills' cowardly stance on gay marriage (he was one of only a few MPs who failed to show for a free-vote on the subject earlier this year).
    I've known Jim Harris for a number of years and I think he's running in this riding out of convienence more than anything else (he lives there). His focus will be on getting into the leader's debate so he can steal a seat or two in BC where the Greens are on the verge of a breakthrough. Harris is content to let Mills and Layton beat themselves to death. Layton and Harris get along, so don't believe reports of animosity between them. Anyone taken a peek at the Greens' platform? What is their stance on gay marriage? I imagine this is a contentious issue within their party considering their members come from across the political spectrum. If I were Jack and the race appears too close to call, I'd attack Mills' stance on gay marriage and likewise, the Greens depending on their stand. I live in this riding and I know it is the THE sleeper issue. Nobody is taking about it yet, but it would draw a clear line in the sand for voters between Layton, Mills and Harris.
    Let the games begin.
    23/05/04 David
    Email: [hidden]
    I live next door in Beaches East York but have many friends in the riding. Liberal, Dennis Mills plastering billboards all over the riding featuring his picture and the message "save our waterfront" is being seen as nothing more than mere opportunism. Saw one already defaced with the message "save my seat". Jack Layton's team has been busy for months. Friends in the riding who have voted for Mills in the past to stop the Alliance are now voting for Layton. I think the NDP leader will win this riding and quite likely his coat tails will extend next door to Beaches East York. NDP gain from the Libs.
    19/05/04 reb
    Email: [hidden]
    There is no way this is still too close to call. I cannot recall any modern day situation where a party leader has not been elected at their first attempt to get a seat or a by-election. There has been the odd case where a leader who already has a seat was defeated in a general election, but not in this senerio.
    19/05/04 Not Non-Partisan
    Email: [hidden]
    We do people trip over themselves trying to rationalize a victory for Jack (Yak, Yak) Layton. Anyone (including correspondents here) who thinks that Jim Harris, the Green is going to draw more votes away from Mills than from Layton is dreaming in technicolour. The Greens will hurt Layton, but mostly he will glib himself to defeat. Mills is a terrific campaigner with lots of committed workers. He'll win.
    19/05/04 James Bow
    Email: [hidden]
    Jack Layton certainly isn't getting into parliament by the easy way, but he probably already knows that. Dennis Mills also knows that, and he's been fighting pretty hard and pretty early -- something that resulted in the election campaign's first gaffe when Mills' "Save our Waterfront" signs were deemed to contravene city bylaws.
    Jack Layton's profile, his connections to this community and the fact that he's the leader of a national party should give him the boost he needs to win this seat... but only barely.
    19/05/04 Steven Lloyd
    Email: zeker@yahoo.com
    Wow, there is a lot of stuff that is not really on topic as far as a prediction goes in this seat, huh?
    Fact: Canadaians vote for party leaders.
    End of story.
    15/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    This is like a broken record. For three years people have been trying to spread this myth that A) the NDP had anything to do with leaking Bob Hunter's words in praise of pedophilia or that B) any of the supposedly thousands of artists in Toronto-Danforth were upset with Marilyn Churley for it.
    As I recall, there were a number of absurd predictions on this site that Churley would lose in the provincial election because of this myth of a revolt of the artists. Instead she won by a huge margin.
    There may a small coterie of bruised friends of Bob Hunter's who are still obsessing over this "incident" (what 5 or 6 people at most). I suspect that the other 99.99999999999999999% of the voters in Toronto-Danforth don't even have the slightest recollection of the Beaches-East York byelection. It was three years ago and was a different riding! This is a red herring if ever there was one.
    Oh yeah, I think more than ever that Layton will win by about 8,000 and Mills will get what he always wanted - named as Canadian Amabassador to the Vatican so he can genuflect in front of the pope all he wants.
    13/05/04 C. Hubley
    Email: [hidden]
    What was that I was saying about the "sleazy NDP"? Marilyn Churley, the provincial MLA, is very well liked, but got tarnished in 2001 over some more NDP sleaze involving slandering of Bob Hunter (which also tainted Howard Hampton and Mike Prue). This angered many ecological activists and artists in the riding. By the standards the NDP was upholding, writers were to be judged as if they were the fictional characters they describe! This would exclude literally every cultural figure from office, forever.
    It's true that the Greens, and some candidates supported by both Greens and NDP, like Tooker Gomberg and David Miller, favoured PRIVATE recycling and composting solutions to Toronto's trash crisis over PUBLIC money going to make Adam's Mine Dump work (if unions had made that decision, imagine how it'd go!)
    But this nonsense about the Greens being "anti-union" is a typical sleaze example. It remains to be seen if Ontario voters believe that. Or if it matters: Sadly, the NDP everywhere but especially in Ontario since Rae, backs all public sector unions no matter what they do. Even the private sector unions resented that, eventually convincing the Rae government that the NDP regime would not survive failing to crack down on the public sector union's power - which he did, implementing job-sharing measures agreed as NDP policy for decades - at which point these suicidal unions promptly turned Ontario over to nearly a decade of Harrisment! Those outside Ontario, who don't know this history, might not realize the depth of hatred of public sector unions held by all knowledgeable voters, or WHY the Greens have risen to start to challenge the NDP in Ontario as they have in BC.
    How will this affect Toronto-Danforth? Immensely. I call the race for Jack because Jim Harris will draw ex-Alliance (remember, Peter Worthington won this riding 20 years ago!) and ex-Tory (remember, David Orchard had his campaign headquarters here not long ago) and those Liberals who realize that Mills has never managed to get buy-in to his good ecological ideas. I honestly don't think the Greens will draw votes from Jack Layton but from *ALL OTHER* parties. That *INCREASES* Jack Layton's chance to win, if only by a thousand votes or so.
    In 2000 when Robert Nevin (a doctor specializing in environmental illness who actually has an environmental illness confining him to a wheelchair who was unable to actively campaign) drew over 1000 votes, there was much more cross-draw. In this election, many of Rob Nevin's votes will go to Jack, and many votes that went further right in 2000 will go to Jim Harris. That explains Jack's lead, and my prediction.
    12/05/04 Marvin the Martian
    Email: [hidden]
    The "silly tactic" used by the GPO in DPWG in pitting DeJong against Eves was hardly silly at all. First of all, it garnered a fair bit of press for the GPO at a pretty low cost. Second, the GPO in DPWG was one of the best-organized Green constituency associations in the province. Third, DeJong was actually from that riding (though living in Toronto). That's why the GPO placed third in that riding -- ahead of the NDP.
    That's also why Harris running in Danforth makes some sense. First, if he doesn't make it into the national leaders' debate, he at least gets to debate Layton. That will generate some press. Second, the Greens in Toronto are, well, as organized as Greens get. Third, Harris is from Toronto ... he knows Jack and is eager to take him on. Layton will almost certainly take him to school - Harris is a speaker, not a debater - but it should be fun to watch them go at it.
    Further to the Ipsos debate below - Ipsos and Oraclepoll are the only polling firms that prompt for the GPC/GPO. Ipsos' methodology is above reproach. Oraclepoll has conducted some paid polls for the Greens.
    If you look at the numbers from EKOS or Decima, you'll see "other" coming in at 3%. That's what you get when you don't prompt for Green. EKOS is the firm of choice for Liberals and torque their numbers accordingly. They don't break Green support out or prompt for them because the Liberals don't want to give the Greens any ground. Also, when the Star reports on Ipsos results, they almost never mention the Greens. They also commission EKOS polls, so go figure.
    Bottom line: nationally, Greens figure to scoop about 3-4% of the popular vote. Harris will come in third in the small-l liberal riding of Danforth, ahead of the Tory candidate after siphoning a bit of support from all three major parties, plus bringing out the malcontents and protest vote. Layton in a walk.
    12/05/04 BMS
    Email: [hidden]
    When the Adscam inquiry got shut down by the Liberal majority on the findings committee, Mills was front and center with that movement possibly ruining the good reputation he once had. Left wing voters don't like government scandals involving corporate friends, but it's an equal slap in the face when incumbent MP's play politics and try to "cover it up". I'm guessing it may have been political suicide doing this.
    10/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
    Email: [hidden]
    It's time to put this in the NDP column. If the webmaster put Ottawa Centre in the NDP column, this should be too, just look at all the posts predicting NDP victory here. We also must remember that the Green Party isn't as left wing as everyone might think, especially not in Ontario. I have heard that the Greens are very anti-union and look at corporations to fix environmental problems. That's why I don't think the Greens will take many votes, if any away from Layton. I think if anything this will hurt the incumbent's chance even more. Plus, if I'm not mistaken this riding is NDP provincially? And for a party that is polling well lately, I think it is rather obvious their leader will be elected!
    08/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Where do people get this carzy idea that Mills is popular in this riding??? Yes, he won in the last three elections, but those were all elections where every single Liberal candidate in Toronto won and if anything Mills won by a lot less than many Grade Z Liberals in Scarborough! This riding has one of the largest lesbian and gay populations in Canada and Dennis Mills is an unapologetic vicious homophobe that voted against the Human Rights Act amendment to stop gays from being fired based on their sexuality! and let's not even get inot him being an anti-abortion fanatic and sending out a Christmas card of him on his knees in front of the Pope and his advocacy of a flat tax which is usually considered too rightwing a policy even for Stephen Harper. This man should have joined the Canadian Alliance long ago. There is even a group called Liberals for layton made up of progressive Liberals who detest Mills. The Liberals would have had a better chance against Layton if they dumped this kook and got a solid progressive Liberal to run.
    07/05/04 Stevo
    It is customary for Canadians to be especially eager when the local candidate also happens to be a party leader, so one would think that Jack Layton would have little trouble winning his own riding. However, Dennis Mills is extremely popular here and if Martin continues to articulate a pro-cities agenda, giving more specifics during the election campaign, that could be a set-up for a very tight race. I'm not yet going to hazard a prediction, however I do tentatively think that the Canadian tradition of giving a party leader a chance to show his/her stuff in the House of Commons will hold and Jack Layton will win by a slim margin.
    07/05/04 Brad
    Email: [hidden]
    I feel like there is much to be said about this contest, but since most of it has been said already, I will offer only this point. This race reminds me a lot of when Joe Clark decided to run in Calgary Centre in 2000. To be honest I didn't give him much of a chance at the time... the epitome of Red Tory running in the centre of the Alliance universe... but I underestimated the hitting power of a federal leader. Now, Clark did have connections to Calgary anyway, but so does Layton here... strong connections. For years the NDP have been battling against irrelevance, and hence, the common attitude in many ridings that would potentially be fertile NDP ground is simply that a vote for them is a waste. That attitude is much different when you have the leader of a party in your riding, since the impact of his victory seems much more tangible... and the fact of the matter is that a riding really does get more attention when your MP is a leader. Furthermore, the possibility of having a leader from Toronto (in any party) will likely be simply too good to resist. I would imagine many liberals (and others) will vote for Layton simply to put a leader from the city in Ottawa... and I say that without commenting on Layton's popularity or history in the city.
    06/05/04 Initial
    Email: [hidden]
    Internal Liberal Party polls put Jack Layton at a 15% lead. Dennis Mills is an excellent MP--one of my favourite Liberals--and it's a shame that Mr. Layton will take his riding. Contrary to one of the previous statements, Mills' role in bringing the Pope and the Rolling Stones to this riding is honourable, but will not win him the riding.
    Both men deserve this riding, but Mills doesn't have a chance. I think the official prediction should be changed to NDP. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see Layton and Chow become the 1st husband-wife team in Parliament.
    06/05/04 Darcy
    Email: [hidden]
    Just to make a correction, Jim Harris actually said the B.C. Greens had 40% from parties on the left, 30% from the right, 30% from people who would not have voted. I think someone made up that idea paying ipsos-reid. One of the other major polls also have the Greens at 5% (forget which one). Layton will likely win but Harris can make it to the debate and do very well.

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