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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:23 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:22 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Bill Archer
Bev Desjarlais
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ron Evans
Green Party/Parti Vert:
C. David Nickarz

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Churchill (100.0%)
Bev Desjarlais

2000 Result/Résultats:
9,645 46.18%
7,024 33.63%
3,190 15.27%
1,028 4.92%
0 0.00%

(151/166 polls, 42347/45654 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Now that the sitting MP is running as an independent, I think the result will be clear. The big "boogey-man" Saskatchewan Party has these ridings provincially, proving a right-wing party can take them. With 3 candidates Lib, NDP, IND, going for the same vote, this riding will split the vote, and allow a CPC MP to be elected.
23/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going Conservative, and now I am not a liar for saying that. Steven should come up to the riding and see what people are saying before he makes his prediction, and look at what is happening. The Liberals and NDP are running candidates from the Eastern part of the riding, making the Western part of the province angry, and the same thing with the North. Laliberte is running, and the last time he ran as a complete unknown ind he recieved 1,400 votes, and now that he is known and is from the West and has connections to the north look for him to take a nice size of the Liberal and NDP vote. Second even in small towns in the southern part of the riding where it could go either NDP or Conservative, it will most likely go Conservative because the Conservative candidate is going door to door in all the communities he can, unlike the NDP candidate who seems to be sticking to the north, east looking for votes. People in the south thought this would be a win for the Alliance, so alot never went and voted, and that was a mistake people are not going to make again. This riding will go Conservative, partially because of a three way split, but more so because of a very strong Conservative candidate.
15/06/04 Kris
Email: [hidden]
Bev will win this hands down. Most of the people submitting their opinions are basing their conclusions on second hand news and rhetoric. Ron Evans is a terrible choice for MP. He has no platform. He hides from debates because he can't think on his feet fast enough and his handlers can't be right there to hold his hand. Has anyone actually heard this guy talk?? The only reason he stands any chance is because MKO and other Native organizations are once again supporting this candidate for their own gain. Bev has done a hell of a job in a riding that rarely gets into the public eye. She has offices throughout the riding to address the specific needs of each area (Elijah on the other hand had his second office in Winnipeg).
14/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
If the Liberal candidate can get the first nations vote out in his favour, it might be a race as I do not think that Ms. Dejarlais strays too far from Thompson in off election years
11/06/04 Ottawa guy
Email: [hidden]
Earlier I said this one was too close to call because a Conservative upswing could cut into Bev Desjarlais' support in the towns and allow Liberal Ron Evans to come up the middle. Well, the Conservative upswing I predicted seems to be coming to pass but I'm still going change my prediction to the NDP in light of the news report yesterday on the CBC that Evans, as Chief of Norway House, donated thousands of the band's dollars to the Liberal Party. This is going to cost him big time. Desjarlais will win.
03/06/04 Christopher
Email: [hidden]
"One will have to wonder how Paul Martin's very urban, very Montreal image will play in Thompspon and the far North and how this will affect the Liberal abilty to take this seat from the NDP."
Excuse me...where is Jack Layton from...oh yes TORONTO!
NDP hold...
28/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
One will have to wonder how Paul Martin's very urban, very Montreal image will play in Thompspon and the far North and how this will affect the Liberal abilty to take this seat from the NDP.
25/05/04 J.E
Email: [hidden]
Ron Evans is a very srong candidate for the Liberals and will make things quite tough for the NDP and Ms. Desjarlais. Evans, unlike Elijah Harper has strong links with every aboriginal reserve in the riding and will count on strong support from these communites to be his base. One will have to wonder how Jack Layton's very urban, very Toronto image will play in Thompspon and the far North and how this will affect Desjarlais abilty to keep this seat for the NDP.
25/05/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
the incumbent is not one of the NDP's brighter lights, and is a fairly non-descript MP in Ottawa (though she should get full credit for putting Pierre Pettigrew on the spot in the Commons about Medicare a few weeks back), but she doesn't have to be carry this seat again. Northern Manitoba is NDP country, and Desjarlais has been a decent constituency MP if not a star on the national stage. Someone who managed to beat Elijah Harper, twice, is not going to be easily unseated.
23/05/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Chief Ron Evans is a good candidate for the Liberals and I'm not sure how Jack Layton will play in this riding, but Bev Desjarlais should hold him off.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Looking at the last 2 elections, Ms. Desjarlais was able to defeat Elijah Harper! How do you beat Elijah Harper in Churchill!!?? The point is, she did, and without him running in this election, it should be a cake walk for Ms. Desjarlais if you factor in recent polling trends, but even with out she would win. Expect 15,000+ for the NDP, 7,000 for the Liberals and 5,000 for the tories.
15/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
It's true that Ron Evans is a good candidate, but be realistic: he's nothing on "The Man that Killed Meech Lake", Elijah Harper, who lost in 1997 and 2000 to Desjarlais.
The poll by poll results from 2000 don't really tell the whole picture, as Harper had almost fanatical support from the First Nation communities.
Even if Desjarlais loses votes in the towns (and I'm not sure about that. A vote for Reform/CA isn't always the same as a vote for the CPC... especially out West) she will almost certainly gain First Nation votes (or Evans will lose them), as Evans (despite being a solid candidate) isn't going to be able to get the sort support that Harper got in the reservations.
Desjarlais isn't going to win this by a huge (ie: plurality of over 30%) amount, but she should be able to crack 50%
10/04/04 Little "c"
Email: [hidden]
Desjarlais has done nothing for this riding since she was elected. Her husband had clout with the unions in Thompson, which has gone through strikes at Inco. HBM&S in Flin Flon is still one of the greatest polluters in Canada, and one of the worst mines in the World for fatalities and mine accidents. I don't see her standing up for the rights of the people she was elected to represent.
The issues that the Liberal candidate is going to face in these larger centres id racism, plain and simple. It will be up to the Liberal organization to address apathy in the Aboriginal community to counteract this, and present himself as a viable alternative to the inactivity of the dead wood of the NDP.
30/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
This is another close riding. Bev is a lack lustre non-First Nation MP in a riding with a majority First Nation population. Ron Evans is arguably the most successful Chief in Canada at taking his community out of debt and improving the quality of life in his reserve so drastically. Ron has demonstrated that he can mobilize the First Nation vote as he did in the 1999 election, almost defeating Oscar Lathlin.
In this riding, the sponsorship scandal doesn't mean a thing, party labels are not important. This is going to be won or lost on local issues and local appeal. If Ron can do what he did in 1999, he goes to Ottawa. But that is a big if.
27/03/04 Ottawa guy
Email: [hidden]
This one is far from an NDP lock. I think it should be switched over to too close to call. Here's why: the poll-by-poll results from the last two elections show that Liberal Elijah Harper took 75-80% of the First Nation vote. New Democrat Bev Desjarlais beat him both times by taking 45-50% of the vote in the towns. Her main competition in the towns came from the Reform Party/CA. Desjarlais openly ran as an anti-gun control, anti-same sex marriage New Democrat, which kept her support in the towns high, but she lost a lot of credibility by backing down to Jack Layton on same-sex marriage last fall. This has created an opening for the Conservatives to cut into the NDP support in the towns, which will cut into Desjarlais' margin of victory from last time and make it a very close race between the NDP and the Liberals.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Between 1957 and 1974, this riding was strongly Conservative. Before that it was strongly Liberal, and since then, it has been strongly NDP, breaking the streak only in 1993 when the man who stopped Meech Lake, Elijah Harper won. Mr.Harper has twise since ran in this riding, finishing second. Historical patters predict an easy NDP victory.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
I expect Bev Desjarlais to hold on but I think it's going to be a lot closer than anyone thinks. The Grits have nominated Chief Ron Evans, who is very popular in aboriginal circles and has demonstrated that he is able to get out the aboriginal vote on his behalf. (I'm sure Phil Fontaine will also be stumping for the Grits.) Just ask The Pas MLA Oscar Lathlin - Ron Evans (running as a Tory) came within 200 votes of defeating Lathlin in the 1999 provincial election. To win as a Tory in Northern Manitoba when the NDP won a majority government would have been a stunning upset, and Evans nearly pulled it off. Therefore, I think Churchill New Democrats underestimate him at their peril.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
NDP incumbent Bev Desjarlais soundly defeated the high-profile Elijah Harper in 2000. With the rise in NDP support throughout the country, and the unlikeliness that the Liberals will front a candidate as strong as Harper this time around, the New Democrats will be victorious on election night.

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