cbn-Cariboo North

Election Prediction Project

Cariboo North
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:12 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:36 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Marijuana
James Michael Delbarre

Green Party
Douglas Gook

NDP
Bob Simpson

BC Liberal
Steve Wallace

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
WILSON, Dr. John

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 37510

Dev. from Quota: -20.44%

Area (km2): 35109

Pop Density: 1.07

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

64.97%

17.67%

4.61%

2.72%

1996 Result (redistributed):

38.77%

40.46%

18.76%

0.14%

1.24%

Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Cariboo South
Kamloops-North Thompson
Prince George-Mount Robson
Prince George-Mount Robson


	15 05 05	AS
Carole James came to both Cariboo South and Cariboo North last week following her successful showing in the televised debate. BLJ, NDP Central Campaign does believe that both Cariboo Ridings are winnable
	14 05 05	M. Lunn
This area generally tends to be right leaning in the first place. Also the liberals are tied with the NDP in the Southern Interior, but leading in areas north of Kamloops, largely due to the strong economy since the North is a largely commodity driven economy and commodity prices are quite high. Also Steve Wallace is the former mayor of Quesnel, which is a plus. Besides, at the SFU clubs day table, even one of the NDP members admitted this would go liberal, so if the NDP don't think they can win this, then they probably won't.
	13 05 05	Ed Deak
Your predictions for Cariboo South and North are way out nonsense, based on nothing. The Cariboo South incumbent, Walt Cobb, is totally incompetent and has been shooting himself in the foot through the campaign. At one of the all candidate forums at Williams Lake City Hall he shouted at a young girl, who asked a question on health care and caused a big furore, still going on. Go to the website of the "Williams lake Tribune" a David Black paper, and see for yourselves. Also my letter on mining. The NDP candidate, Charlie Wyse is a well liked, long term councillor and former local highschool teacher, with a high profile, who did an excellent job during the campaign. I give him 85% chance. In the North a former BCLiberal turned NDP candidate, Bob Simpson, a highly intelligent and knowledgeable person, has been running circles around the Liberal candidate Steve Wallace, who refused to debate on labour sponsored events. Wallace's biggest assets are acouple of reopened copper/gold mines, that had nothing to do with the BCLibs, but rising metal prices. This is the only reason some people may be fooled to vote for him. Again, the debates have been prominently featured in the Tribune and you can read them. I give Bob 60%.
	10 04 05	BLJ
Since the early 1950's, the Cariboo was held by the Socreds until their meltdown in the late 1980's when Cariboo South was won by the NDP in a by-election. In the 1991 Socred meltdown, the NDP captured this seat with 39% of the vote. The Liberals gained the seat in the 1996 election, which also included a right-leaning Reform vote of around 19%. In the 2001 vote, the Liberals performed about 7% better than their overall provincial result, while the NDP did about 4% worse. If one looks at the results of the recent federal election transposed within Cariboo North's boundaries the approximate results are as follows: Green: 647 (3.9%); CPC: 8,043 (48.2%); Liberal: 3,330 (20%); NDP: 4,677 (28%);
	13 03 05	A. Vancouverite
The NDP is lucky they've gotten two strong candidates in the Cariboo reigion, and the Liberals have had the misfortune, on their part, of levelling cuts that have disprportionatly been negative to this area. Bob Simpson is like a Dave Zirnheldt of the Cariboo North area without the negative connentation of being connected to the previous NDP reigeme, he like Charlie Wyse in Cariboo South, will be very competitive in this normally conservative area. The local Liberal will be easily be tagged with as a Campbell Clone, doing nothing to stop various cuts. Nonetheless the Liberals won by a very wide margin last time. However when one considers that except in the most right-wing of bastions within the Interior, the Liberals have fallen a huge amount, this riding is correctly put into the too close to call column. One has to wait until some regional polling, local campaign news, and more provincial trends are clear to make a call. Meaning it probably won't be known until election night.
	08 03 05
By nature this is generally a conservative area therefore the liberals should hold the riding, but Campbell's popularity has taken a much larger fall in the Interior as opposed to Lower Mainland therefore I am reluctant to call this one for the Liberals. I would like to see a regional breakdown in the polls before I call this riding. Whoever wins the majority of interior seats will likely win this riding.
	28 02 05	BLJ
Over the past 50 plus years the Cariboo area has been traditionaly small "c" conservative and elected centre-right MLAs. Unless the NDP obtains an overall lead in provincial public opinion polls, this seat will likely remain Liberal.
	21-Feb-05	Sharon Kerry Email:
The NDP has a very strong candidate here in Bob Simpson. The Interior is a bad place to be a Liberal. On election day, that will be the case in Cariboo North.

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