Election Prediction Project

Prince George-Omineca
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:18 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:43 PM 22/04/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Andrej J. DeWolf
Chuck Fraser
Democratic Reform BC
Erle Martz
BC Liberal
John Rustad

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-17.79%
Area (km2):42581
Pop Density:0.91

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Cariboo North
Prince George-Mount Robson
Prince George-Mount Robson

14 05 05 M. Lunn
This is probably the most conservative of the three Prince George ridings. It went Social Credit in 1991, liberal in 1996 so with the liberals polling higher in the North than in 1996, they likely won't lose any of the Northern ridings they didn't win that time around.
30 04 05 M. Lunn
Whoever thinks the Democratic Reform will win this is nuts. At best Tom Morino might win his riding, but considering they don't even register in the polls that is unlikely. With the strong economy in the North and considering this is the most conservative of the three Prince George ridings, the liberals will probably hold it, but with the region being very volatile and NDP upset is still possible.
29 04 05 W.E.J.
This one will go to Erle Martz because of his abilities as a candidate and the fact that the community is not yet ready to go NDP. This will be a close race with the Democratic Reformers winning.
17 04 05 Political Kid
Chuck has a fairly good organizations and has the political infrastructure in place to win in May. I am not sure John Rustad and some of his positions he has taken on the school board will resinate will the citizens of this riding.
01 04 05 just a guy
Given that the Vanderhoof part of the riding is conservative, this one usually votes for a centre-right party. It elected a Socred (with nearly 700 spoiled ballots) in 1991, a Liberal despite a substantial Reform BC vote in 1996, a Liberal in a landslide in 2001, and likely a Liberal again in 2005.
All that said, Paul Nettleton would not be able to win this riding if he ran here again. Although was able to come from out of nowhere to win his nomination in 1996, his record has been lacklustre. He received only very junior level critic roles in his first term, and was passed over for a cabinet role in 2001 before leaving the Liberals altogether. He lacks the profile that federal independents like Chuck Cadman and John Nunziata have/had. It's likely that his spotty record will affect his run in Prince George Mount Robson.
30 03 05 Mike Mulroney
This riding is too right-leaning to go NDP. The NDP only won 34% in 1996, and did worse than the provincial average. The Liberals won in 1996 despite a 20% Reform vote split. Even in 1991, this riding held off the NDP landslide. The history and the numbers speak for themselves. Incumbent Nettleton is running against the BC Liberals this time, but not in this riding. Good riddance!
21 03 05 BLJ
Just a post-script to my previous post.
During the 1991 Socred wipe-out, this seat was only one of seven retained by the Socreds, which also resulted in the Socred's second highest result at 52% (Peace River North was 54%).
Paul Nettleton will not be running, which will prevent any vote split.
Finally, a recent expose on the economy of Prince George by BCTV was generally upbeat in that the unemployment rate has declined from a high of around 13% to the single digit level and a sense of economic optimism pervades the area, which has apparently been missing for well over a decade or more.
Of the 3 PG seats, the Liberals will surely hold onto this one.
26 02 05 BLJ
This seat was held by the Liberals during the 1996 election, even with around 20% support for Reform. ANother likley hold by the Liberals.

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