Election Prediction Project

Peace River North
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:39 PM 17/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:53 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Green Party
Clarence G. Apsassin
NDP
Brian Churchill
BC Liberal
Richard Neufeld
Independent
Leonard Joseph Seigo

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
NEUFELD, Hon. Richard
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:31010
Dev. from Quota:-34.23%
Area (km2):161677
Pop Density:0.19

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

73.22%
11.56%
0.00%
6.27%

1996 Result (redistributed):

18.49%
29.39%
47.23%
1.53%
0.00%

Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Peace River South
Prince George-Mount Robson



16 04 05 BLJ
In 2001, the NDP underperformed their provincial vote average by about 8%, while the Liberals overperformed theirs by about 3%. In addition, there was a 5.5% Unity vote and about a 4% Reform vote - about another 10% right leaning vote.
>From figures that I have read, the unemployment rate in the Prince George region was about 16.8% in 1998, which has tumbled to about 6.5% today.
The forestry industry is healthy, the mining industry is booming (with many new projects on the drawing board), there was the recent announcement about the container terminal port expansion in Prince Rupert and CN's upgrade to their mainline, a multi-billion dollar oil pipeline from Edmonton to the north coast is also in the works (which will all impact PG's economy), and Highway 97 between Prince George and Cache Creek is to be upgraded over the longer term as a 4-lane, high standard, trade corridor - the "Cariboo Connector".
Based upon all of the foregoing, I am reasonably confident that this seat will be retained by Pat Bell as a Liberal hold.
30 03 05 Pundit
Not easy NDP country at the best of times. The NDP can win here if they come out say they will reduce all the environmental regulation stopping forestry and mining and promise to be harder on the First Nations
Pat Bell can take some of the claim of improving life for mining, an important business in this area. PG is doing well under the Liberals
10 03 05 Nick Boragina
In 1996, Reform won here by 20% over the Liberals, who beat the NDP by 10% (prior to redistribution) This is as right wing as right wing ridings come. I'd go so far as to say that Unity, Reform, Social Credit, and the Conservatives have a better chance of getting a combined total that is higher then the NDP in this riding.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This area always goes for the most right wing party on the ballot. It went Reform in 1996, but since this time around there is no party to the right of the BC Liberals, they should hold this one as much as people in this riding may hate voting for any party with a liberal moniker in front of it. This area is more Albertan than British Columbian in its past voting patterns so the NDP does not have a chance here. In fact I would not be surprised if the Unity party or some other right wing party comes in second.


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