Election Prediction Project

Powell River-Sunshine Coast
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise ŗ jour:
10:18 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
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4:00 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Green Party
Adriane Carr
BC Liberal
Maureen Clayton
Refed BC
Allen McIntyre
NDP
Nicholas Simons

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
LONG, Harold
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:44900
Dev. from Quota:-4.76%
Area (km2):41619
Pop Density:1.08

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

42.36%
27.15%
27.01%
0.00%

1996 Result (redistributed):

26.90%
17.47%
3.00%
50.10%
2.26%

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo South
North Coast
West Vancouver-Garibaldi
Yale-Lillooet



15 05 05 politics101
Gordon Campbell has been touting Adrienne Carr a lot lately and why would that be - because if she is elected to the legislature she will also use her time to give Carol James a challenge in the house - unless the Liberals private polling shows them with a chance to hold this riding and assuming us pundits are correct that the Liberals will win the election I suspect that a number of Liberals will vote Green on Tuesday to send a message to the NDP that there is more than one player on the left of the political spectrum - with the exception of 2001 this riding has tended to vote an opposition member for most of the last 20 years.
15 05 05 Fabian B
I don't know who will win here but I must note that the Liberals have a stronghold in Gibson's and will certainly win lots of votes there. Also, 5% of the riding is aboriginal and they are concentrated mostly in Sechelt; I doubt that they would vote Liberal. In my Opinion, this riding is in a 3-way horse race with all 3 main party candidates having a shot at winning the riding. It is neither an NDP nor a Liberal lock and Adrienne Carr has the best opportunity to win a seat in the Legislature here--of any other Green Party candidate--beacuse this is her riding and there is no incumbent. I suspect some traditional Liberal and NDP supporters and Undecideds will vote for Carr because they were impressed by her radio and TV debate performances, as I was. Her stock has definitely risen in the public's mind but whether that will put her in top is anybody's guess since this riding has had an unusual history with maverick leaders like Gordon Wilson. Mike Symth of the Vancouver Province recently noted in an article that the Greens are now concentrating their efforts here in order to crisscross the riding and win votes for Carr. Frankly, if Carr doesn't win her own riding, then I think she should step aside for another leader of the Green Party.
By the Way, I doubt that Ms Clayton of the BC Liberals would have happily agreed with Gordon Campbell's well publicised post-debate opinion that he was impressed with Carr's performance and ideas. With friends like this, Ms Clayton sure doesn't need Nicholas Simons of the NDP as an enemy.
14 05 05 Bozard
I can't believe this is forecast as Liberal. Carr's got it for sure. With Liberal support down and without the Gordon Wilson factor, this one's more likely to go Green than any other. It won't be by much, though.
14 05 05 M. Lunn
This is generally a left-leaning area so it could go NDP or the liberals could slip up the middle, but I think Adrienne Carr has run a much stronger campaign this time around and knowing they won't win more than one seat at the most, she has put a lot of effort into seeing BC elects the first Green MLA in North America. I am probably wrong, but I'll make a bold prediction that the Greens will win their first seat ever in North America.
13 05 05 D7
Let's get real and look at the numbers. With a strong and new NDP candidate (sure Wilson was well-known last time, but by the time he'd shifted to the NDP he'd collected more detractors than fans, and many longtime NDPers shifted to Green because of his candidacy), a new NDP leader, and a situation where the NDP is renewed and isn't running a lame-duck provincial campaign and coming off one of the most unpopular terms of government in BC history, the NDP vote can only go up. And the excellent campaign that Nicholas Simons is running will ensure of this.
Conversely, because of these same factors, the Green vote can only go down from last time. And in 2005 the Liberals are running a very weak candidate with no name recognition in Powell River, and on a record that has been extremely unpopular and harmful to this area of the province. The Liberals can only hope to get 35% at most. The Greens have run a good campaign and have been bolstered by provincial media attention for Carr, but still can't possibly do as well as last time, when the circumstances (the collapse of the NDP) favoured them so much: let's say 24%. Nicholas Simons will win with anywhere between 38 and 48%.
11 05 05 Sunshine Coast Girl
It's pretty obvious that most of the submissions on this board are from Green Party supporters. I have lived on the Sunshine Coast for most of my life and have been involved in many, many election campaigns; just as I am in this one. Many of the people who were angry at the NDP in 2001 and voted Green to punish us have come back to the NDP because they realized during the last four years that their Green vote only enabled the Liberals to win this riding. They are determined not to make the same mistake twice. And more of the Liberal support remains here than these posters would have you believe. The NDP have had a record number of signs, volunteers and people standing in line to donate this time. We've also had many volunteers working the campaign that voted Green in 2001.In contrast the Greens have hired paid phoners and parachuted paid organisers into the riding last minute. The Liberal party headquarters is nearly empty whenever you drive by it and all calls received by local residents have come from the Vancouver phone bank. Adriane and her party peaked in 2001 and my prediction is that this time the Greens and Liberals will split the vote and the NDP will come right up the middle.
10 05 05 Coaster
Anyone who has spent any time on the sunshine coast can see the Greens have MUCH less momentum than last election - and Nicholas Simons is very popular. The only thing the Greens can do is keep 'spinning' they're doing well and hope to fool enough people to elect the Liberals up here again. At this point, Simons is ahead, working hard, and can win this.
09 05 05 Concerned Voter
I think that this riding has the best chance of going Green, mainly because Adriane Carr is their leader. Personal popularity and third-party maverickness (here I'm making up words) helped Gordon Wilson cruise to victory leading two fringe parties consecutively, the Liberals and then the PDA. Only when he entered a mainstream party (NDP) did he lose. People who don't like Campbell and are turned off by politics in general will flock to the Greens on May 17 here.
09 05 05 Laurence Putnam
I'm sticking my neck out on this one -- I think the Greens will win it.
Incumbent Liberal gone, NDP haven't won here since 1983, maverick riding, Carr in the debates as the only 3rd party, holding relatively good poll numbers, Carr spending more time campaigning in the riding, etc. etc.
Green provincewide numbers will drop significantly, but they'll be really strong in a couple of ridings, and most significantly this one.
As in 1991 and 1996, Powell River-Sunshine Coast will give BC the gift of a 3rd voice in the legislature.
Green Party: welcome to mainstream politics.
04 05 05 JC
Just Put this under the Green Column, this is the only one the Greens have a shot of winning, Carr will win this one albeit by a nose. Her performance in the debate was the best because she had nothing to lose at all. Carr will win, she will be the only non-NDP or BC Liberal in the legislature.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
The Greens could still win this. They are down in the polls from last election, but last election getting only 2% province wide, they had no idea where their strengths and weaknesses were. Since they know they won't win the election, the Greens will likely put all their money into a few ridings they think they have a reasonable shot at winning. Powell River-Sunshine Coast is generally a left-leaning area so the NDP also has a strong chance at winning this for the first time in over 20 years. Likewise if the Greens and NDP evenly split the vote, the liberals could take this with as little as 35% of the popular vote. Malahat-Juan de Fuca and Powell River-Sunshine Coast are the only two ridings the liberals can win with less than 40%, which is a good thing for them since they likely won't get above 40% in either of those ridings. I should note thought that if BC-STV passes, most expect this to be a five member riding along with the North Shore area therefore guaranteeing a liberal win since the North Shore will go heavily liberal.
02 05 05 Brent
Based on polling results in last year's federal election in this area of the federal riding, Mr. Simons(who, then, also ran as NDP candidate) fared very well in places like Powell River and some smaller communities along the Sunshine Coast. Given these poll numbers plus with the provincial NDP more than likely sitting close to 40% in Interior ridings like PR-SC (though based on mid-April polling results before the recent Liberal access for donations scandal), I predict Simons will edge out both the Greens and the Liberals...NDP:37, Libs: 32, Greens:27
30 04 05 Sam Zaharia
The Powell River Peak questioned the three main candidates on several issues including vision and values, environment, food sovereignty, privatization, healthcare. Maureen Clayton refused to answer all but the v&v questions....she wouldn't even answer a question regarding their plan to reduce waiting lists. It seems when it comes to her claim that she would represent the people of the riding she expects they will just take her word for it without her having to back it up at all. Nicholas Simons responded with a carefully worded blanket answer to the several questions in each category, probably written with the help of a spin-doctor, none of which directly adressed the questions being asked. Adriane Carr answered each question thoughtfully, specifically and with respect for the fact that these issues matter to the constituents. I think her lack of experience will be balanced out by her sincerity and willingness to be deeply involved in the riding. If the greatest competition is coming from a candidate who doesn't appear to give a hoot about anything that matters, I predict a win for the Greens here.
30 04 05 Karen
I was up on the Sunshine Coast this past week - drove all the way up to Powell River.
There were hardly any Green or Liberal signs - while there were tons of NDP ones. Based on that observation, I'd say the NDP will win here.
01 05 05 Nick Boragina
I still dont see any good arguments for the Greens. Most of the green "predictions" here, say in their post "I hope she wins" or "she might win" or "this could be interesting"
well, I also hope she wins, she might win, and this riding WILL be interesting. but the fact it she wont. This has nothing to do with Mrs.Carr. Jesus could run here as a Green, and it would not make much impact. This is not a race of people, it's a race of parties. Even though it seems obvious the Liberals will win, this is a 2 horse race, and in 2 horse races, 3rd parties drop. Mrs.Carr is only a leader, she has no personal draw like Igali for example. Being the leader of a 3rd party in a 2 horse race does not help. Unfortunatly for her.
25 04 05 JC
This has been a very independent riding, It was the only one to elect a PDA Member in 1996 (In Gordon Wilson) I would not be surprised if Carr wins this time.
24 04 05 R. Newman
"John Reynolds himself indicated during an all candidates meeting that he would not vote for Gordon Campbell)" so who is he voting for? If John Reynolds, who is very smart and the Conservative Party of Canada campaign chair, wanted to cause maximum trouble for NDP and Liberals in the federal election, which is all he really cares about, then here's what he would do:
He'd endorse Carr and the Greens in this riding, on the excuse that they are a grassroots participatory democracy party like the old Alliance and that "the members at least get a voice".
Of course his real motive would be to get Carr elected, create high morale in the Green Party of Canada, and convince them to run a full slate again and split the vote all over Canada, guaranteeing a Conservative majority.
24 04 05 Initial
Because the battle riding is a very tight race, the BCLiberals will win this one by a whisper. All the right or middle wing voters will flock towards the Liberals, and all the left wing voters will have to choose between NDP or the Greens. On a side note, I think the Greens have a chance at beating the NDP because Adriane Carr is a big name around BC.
05 04 05 Mike Mulroney
An interesting note for this riding is that the NDP got the same vote in 1996 as in 2001, and only won 33% during the NDP landslide of 1991. Gordon Wilsonís personal popularity has thrown the vote off significantly in this for over a decade, and this is the first election in 15 years that he isnít running in Powell River-Sunshine Coast. The BC Liberals won a mere 42% in the last election, and even of that, its difficult to say how much theyíll be able to hold. The BC Liberals will probably lose some of their 42.4% from last election, which makes this riding a three way race.
One canít discount the Greens or Carr simply based on the Surrey-Panorama ridge by-election result. Adrienne Carrís defeat in Surrey-Panorama was due to the fact that:
(1) It was not her riding; Carr didnít know the riding and the riding didnít know her. Everyone knew she was the leader and that she just trying to capitalize on by-election madness, and that she didnít really want to serve that riding in particular.
(2) The by-election was the first chance for the NDP to win a seat since the landslide of 2001. Everyone, myself included, felt that the BC Liberals won too many seats for their own good. After the last election, the NDP were denied official party status, having fallen 2 seats short of the minimum of 4 that entitle a party to official status: a move made by a still-angry, still-giddy, then-invincible Premier, who wanted to give the NDP one final slap in the face for running the province into the ground. In retrospect, he made the wrong decision. This by-election was a chance for the province, as much as for the NDP, to help out their overworked opposition, and get one step closer to making them official.
(3) This by-election took place near the peak of the NDP in the polls. Everyone was excited about sending a third NDP MLA to the Legislature.
(4) Surrey-Panorama Ridge is not a strong Green Riding. The suburban riding in the lower mainland, surrounded by more suburbs is far less concerned with the environment than the residents of BCís beautiful southern coast.
(5) The Liberal candidate was a scary social conservative, and residents wanted to block her from becoming MLA.
(6) By-elections are somewhat symbolic, and the electorate wanted to make a statement: that the BC Liberals donít have a stranglehold on power anymore. The statement about the importance of protecting the environment was tertiary, falling behind a secondary statement re-affirming BC Liberal strength.
Because Gordon Wilson is not running again, there is a logical possibility that any of the three candidates could win. Because Carr is the only candidate who has run in this riding before, she will be able to build on her previous vote from formerly Gordon Wilson vote or from the BC Liberal landslide vote, and for that I think she has a slight edge. I predict Carr will win in one of the most exciting battles of this election, but wouldnít be surprised to see either the NDP or BC Liberals win.
01 04 05 WM
It is probably worth considering that Ms. Carr is not exactly the most popular leader that the Green Party has ever had. There is the possibility that some Green Party faithful might vote against her, and for the NDP.
This is only a minor force, in my mind, but Ms. Carr doesn't quite bring the same things to the table as Mr. Lewis does. However, the bonus from her name recognition is probably greater than the negative force of those who feel they know her name too well.
28 03 05 JC
I admit Simons does have the advantage here but it will be very close, However there might be some people who voted liberal last time and will find a new party. The people who voted for John Reynolds in the federal riding will not vote for the NDP. However a good portion will vote for the liberals, That will probably get a vote split here between the Libs, The Greens and the DRBC. Why did I say greens? They aren't as left wing as people peg them to be to more people would be willing to vote green then NDP.
Here's a list of what advantages Simons and Carr have in the riding
NDP-Simons
Advantages
*Running for two "main parties"
*Recently Ran in Federal Election
*Traditional NDP Seat
Disadvantages
*Low Name Recognition
*Not a Party Leader
*Not Gordon Wilson
Green-Carr
Advantages
*High Name Recognition
*She ran last time in this riding and almost came 2nd
*Gordon Wilson Not Running this time
*Leader of the Green Party
Disadvantages
*Support Base
*Not one of the Two Main Parties
However Carr has a much better chance against Simons because she does not have to face the much more recognizable Gordon Wilson again. She will benefit by having the most name recognition in this part of the woods, Surrey was not representative of her support. That was a more conservative area. This time in Powell River I expect she will campaign very hard and put more energy into this seat alone to win, and to beat Simons. I am not a green supporter but i'd really like to see her win. I think she can definitely do it and I hope she will prove the naysayers wrong.
28 03 05 Pundit
Adrianne Carr will not win this riding, though should make it one of two ridings in BC where one could talk about it being a three way race. The Broad Coalition could give AC a few hundred more votes. The last time this area when NDP was 1983. This was never strong ground for the Socreds. Since 1983 the area has changed to a very different demographic. The people do a lot less fishing and cutting down trees - teh old NDP core in the riding. The aging rich boomers there will either be looking to the Greens or Liberals. Liberals will win this riding. Carr second, but only barely
26 03 05 BLJ
A traditional NDP seat, which has an added element - the leader of the Green Party. From a Green perspective, the dynamics of the 2001 election likely represented the best opportunity for gaining this seat. The race will be for second place between the Liberals and Greens. The possibility also exists that the Liberals could have a THIRD place showing here as well as in Nelson-Creston.
21 03 05 JC
This is going to for Carr, She is going to win this because I bet you the greens are going to fight tooth and nail for this one. It's going to be between her and Simons. Simons is going to put up a fight but if Carr can convince the NDP Voters that she can represent them better then the NDP Can and she certainly can do that because she's a leader of the greens. She will win. Support still hasn't changed for her.
21 03 05 Nearly branded Communist 'cause I'm left-handed...
In 2001, people were looking to the Green Party for an alternative to the lacklustre NDP, and their leader, Adriane Carr was getting lots of positive media coverage and spotlight. She faced the discredited, love him or hate him party hopper Gordon Wilson, and a retread SoCred MLA Harold Long. She finished third, with 27% of the vote.
Fast forward to 2005. The NDP is revived, with a chance at forming government. Carr is old news, and has lost much credibility after a dismal showing in the Surrey Panorama Ridge by-election. The NDP candidate, Nicholas Simons, has been out and about in the community since October, expanding his strong base of support from the federal election. A victory for Carr is, unless something changes drastically in the next two months, all but impossible.
Greens are great at posting enthusiastic predictions of victory on this site that translate into disappointing finishes. Witness the fuss made over Saanich Gulf Islands in the last federal election. Wild predictions of the first Green Party seat in the House of Commons rang awfully hollow after Andrew Lewis' fourth place finish (with 17% of the vote).
I would ask 'rockindude' to please elaborate on his statement. How does the nomination of Maureen Clayton effect Ms. Carr's chances? As it stands, his post is nothing more than a statement of obvious fact coupled with another partisan effort at promoting the impression that PR-SC is winnable for the Greens. I have been a Gibsons resident for the past seven years, but I would be very surprised if any of the Green boosters actually live in the constituency (although please, tell me if I am mistaken).
I will openly admit that I am a strong supporter of Nicholas Simons, but at least my partisan arguments are based in reality, and on empirical fact. This will be no cakewalk for the NDP, and it will require a strong campaign to win, but there are several reasons why I think Simons will be the next MLA for Powell River-Sunshine Coast.
1) In 2001, Harold Long won with only 42.36% of the vote, the 5th lowest of any Liberal winner in the province, this with the NDP winning only 22% of the popular vote province wide. The latest poll puts the NDP ahead of the Liberals 41% to 40% outside of the Lower Mainland, so simple math tells you that they should be in front in this particular constituency.
2) Not only will many people here vote for the Party, but Nicholas himself will pull a considerable amount of personal support. Highly respected among the First Nations of Sechelt and Sliammon, and a prominent member of the local arts community, he may not have as much political profile as Carr, but he certainly has a lot more personal popularity.
3) During the 2004 federal election, Simons was able to triple the NDP vote in West Van-Sunshine Coast, winning a plurality of votes within the boundaries of the provincial constituencies (and winning every poll but one in Powell River!). When you factor in the federal liberals (and even some federal conservatives: John Reynolds himself indicated during an all candidates meeting that he would not vote for Gordon Campbell) who will go over to the NDP, then they look to be in a strong position.
Will keep you all posted with updates from the campaign trail. Still a constituency to be watched, but Nicholas Simons should pull it off on May 17th.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
Nicolas Simons is a better candidate than Gordon Wilson, it's just tough for white people to see that. In his federal campaign, he took over 60% of the vote in some heavily Aboriginal polls, and won other polls cleanly in the Powell River area. And this is with the federal NDP that scores 16% in the polls federally and calls it a big improvement. Next, Adrianne Carr couldn't beat the NDP when the NDP had its worst electoral year in 70 years (counting CCF) of BC elections, and now that the NDP is double where it was in the polls last time and the Greens are lower than they were and she looks like a clown for her comments on pro-rep and for running in Surrey, now, people think she's going to win? I'll wager she doesn't win one single polling area. Not one.
NDP 42, Lib 35, Carr 15, Other 8
Also, the Greens and DRBC will combine for zero seats province wide.
17 03 05 rockindude
With the Liberal candidate now decided on Maureen Clayton, I think the Greens should have this one in the bag.
09 03 05 JC
Im going to say this might be the only seat the Greens Have a legitimate shot at winning. I would not underestimate Adrianne Carr, she might be in a third party but she has a huge advantage over the NDP and BC Liberals due to Name Recognition. I do not believe however Carr is going to take this in a walk and its going to be a very close race. Carr took 27% of the vote last time here and she still has a good shot at winning.
27 02 05 Nick Boragina
While I do not know who will win, I know who wont, the green party. This is a 2 horse race, NDP vs BCL over the entire province, and like the ADQ in Quebec, when races shape up to be head-to-head, people turn off 3rd parties. This happened in june 04 federally with the NDP, when many voters went to the Liberals. I think the NDP will take this, but the Liberals could, the Greens however, wont.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
A difficult riding to predict, as Gordon Wilson ran in the last 3 elections with 3 different parties. His absence this time may favour Carr as the most high-profile candidate in the race. And this riding hasn't elected any New Democrats in recent memory. On the other hand, Nicholas Simons has the recent experience and public exposure of a federal election campaign. Also, it's been a disappointing few years for the Greens. I think this will be a race between Carr and Simons, and will depend on the strength of the provincial Green campaign and the public's perception of whether Carr is an effective party leader.
23-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
I grew up here...this seat will be NDP..Adrienne Carr has lost much credibilty the last six months.
23-Feb-05 P. Kelly
Forget it, the Greens will not win a seat. They will be lucky to hold 5% of the popular vote in this election. Adriane Carr actually LOST support in raw votes and percentages when she ran in the Surrey byelection. This seat will vote NDP and toss out the Socred-Liberal that occupies this seat.
23-Feb-05 S.G.
It is VERY early (as of this submission), but one could not call this seat for the greens, Adriane Carr or no Adriane Carr, right now. If she could not win last time, i don't think she can pull it off this time. BC Politics is very polarizing, the greens are down, and many who are upset at the Liberal government will vote NDP. It's possible, but far fetched as of now, for Adriane Carr to win...
24-Feb-05 KH
Green Leader Carr will be the candidate in Sunshine Coast - and in an electorate looking for an alernative to the NDP, she just might take it.
22-Feb-05 JC
Email:
It's true that Adriane Carr's Party has slipped in the polls, but the fact Gordon Wilson is not running for the NDP this time should draw people to Adriane Carr who is expected to run in this riding again. It is true she had 8% in the by-election, but keep in mind she parachuted into that riding. This is her home riding and hopefully thanks to reduced support levels for the libs, Adrianne Carr will win.


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