Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:19 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:19 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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Robin Austin
BC Liberal
Roger Harris
Green Party
Patrick Hayes
BC Unity
Daniel Stelmacker

BC Liberals:
HARRIS, Hon. Roger
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-27.44%
Area (km2):24063
Pop Density:1.42

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
North Coast

13 05 05 J.M.
Today, Carole James, the leader of the B.C. NDP, visited Kitimat and Terrace which are the main population centres of the Skeena Riding. Members of the public were made to feel welcome at the gatherings. People in both towns were buzzing with enthusiasm for Carole's visit. Robin Austin, the NDP candidate for Skeena has been door knocking in Terrace, Thornhil, Kitimat and all the surrounding areas of the riding and has met with very favorable responses. I submit that Skeena will be in the NDP column on Tuesday 17th May 2005.
01 05 05 A. Vancouverite
This bizzare finance scandal will hurt all the Liberals in NW'estern BC. Austin still has an uphill battle in Skeena considering the closeness of the 96' results, he'd have to keep Harris from getting over 55% of the reform voters from 96' a possible albiet difficult task. Before this finance scandal I would've said a 5 point margin for the Liberals due to various reasons, but with the scandal I'd predict this riding is now too close to call (thus I agree with the prediction change).
25 04 05 Deep Thoughts
"Town [Kitimat] Duped into Donating to BC Liberals, Says Official"
Headline from the Tyee, and broadcast on CBC
Harris' troubles doen't seem to have an end. Kitimat is already up in arms over power sales and the 4 day school week...now this. Funnelling municipal tax dollars into BC Liberal campaign funds. Money paid to meet with cabinet members, who have yet to confirm or deny they paid for travel to the north with public dollars.
The difference between the Ottawa Liberals and the BC Liberals seems to be less every day. I wonder what Gomery is doing after he files his report?
The news is hitting the streets of Terrace and Kitimat and the reaction is obvious. The hill Harris has to climb is getting steeper and steeper. He is already dodging all candidate forums and public meetings. It seems there is a reason his picture is on the big signs...it is the only way people will recognize him.
16 04 05 VN
Demographics and local issues are important here...if Kitimat, First Nations and those pissed off with government are mobilized it will go NDP...and those seem to be big motivators in the North West.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Even though the NDP may have narrowly won this riding federally, one must also take into account the federal liberal votes who are likely swing voters. Had the election been held a year earlier, they probably would have gone NDP, but today many will go liberal due to the strong economy largely thanks in part to the high commodity prices. Also the Conservatives would have won the riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley if you combine the Christian Heritage Party vote so they would have won 101 seats as opposed to 99 (One other in Southwestern Ontario they lost by 0.4% by the CHP got 2.5%), so would have the NDP still won this riding with the Conservative/CHP vote and what were the actual percentages. I suspect the NDP was a lot stronger in the North Coast riding due to the fact Prince Rupert and Queen Charlotte Islands tend to be more left wing than the inland areas.
13 04 05 BLJ
I'm going to have to disagree with the election prediction project calling this seat so early based upon some of the previous posters comments and other factors.
Firstly, one can draw some conclusions from the federal election result whereby the NDP would have won the provincial ridings of North Coast and Skeena. The CPC won in neighbouring Bulkley Valley-Stikine and I believe, at the present time, that seat is a likely Liberal hold.
Secondly, as someone previously mentioned, it appears that the Alcan matter is an issue in Kitimat and to what extent it will impact the outcome in this riding I do not know.
Some evidence regarding the Alcan matter was issued in a news release yesterday whereby Kitimat's mayor and council were angry at the provincial government for its failure to tackle Alcan's increasing sell-off of power and the corresponding decrease in production at its local facilities.
BTW, Kitimat mayor Rick Wozney was the Liberal candidate in 1996.
22 03 05 M. Lunn
It is possible the NDP might win this riding, but judging from the numbers of the past two elections, I don't think it is likely. With this being one of the stronger liberal showings in the North and Interior in 2001, not to mention the fact the combined liberal/reform vote was 55%, this should stay liberal. Add to the fact the most recent Ipsos reid poll shows the liberals at 49% in the North. They are weakest in the Southern Interior especially the Kootenays and Vancouver Island. Kitimat will likely go mostly NDP, but Terrace is twice as large as Kitimat so as long as Terrace goes mostly liberal they will hold it. Also even if the NDP won half the polls in Terrace, I would like to know what their percentages were since if they only get 1/3 of the vote than the liberals might win those polls since almost all conservatives and many although certainly not all liberal supporters will go liberal provincially.
21 03 05 Deep Thoughts
Here it is...Terrace and Kitimat Polls from the last Federal (including Thornhill and Lakelse and Rosswood:
NDP 4277, CON 3756, LIB 1961, GRN 310, CHP 301, MRX 53
Simple Math, The NDP vote will hold while the right vote will bleed a little in a number of directions including Democratic Reform. The margin will increase with a higher level of voter participation and the 2004 Federal Liberal Vote will break heavily towards the NDP. The NDP candidate has strong connections with the aboriginal community including his job as a social worker for them, his aboriginal wife and two adopted aboriginal children.
What isn't an issue in this election is guns and abortion. That will hurt the Campbell Libs unless they can get the constitution changed in the next 25 days or so.
Clear NDP Victory
20 03 05 Bob Cline
This is a peculiar riding. Whoever wins, it will be an upset victory. I suspect the NDP will win, but the Liberals need to hold on here if they want to keep the word "Premier" before the name of Mauii's most wanted. It's going to be tight. The question is, do people care remember disliking the NDP more than they currently dislike the Liberals.
18 03 05 Dave
A very interesting riding to watch. Based on the current Liberal MLA's handling of the Power Sales issue in Kitimat he will be soundly voted against in that community. An extremely strong turn-out can be expected in Kitimat and the level of turn-out could well effect the results in this riding.
In the Terrace-Thornhill area Roger generally has a higher level of support but it is not overwhelming and a strong anti-Liberal vote in Kitimat makes it likely that the current MLA will be defeated. The sad thing is that Roger seems to be a nice guy and could be an effective MLA. For whatever reason Roger has not been able to gain a solid grasp of the concerns in Kitimat and has been unable to advocate for and communicate with his riding.
14 03 05 J.M.
As a direct result of Provincial Liberal Policies, the economy in Skeena has been depressed and devastated culminating in increased bankruptcies, school closures, store closures, mass migration of people out of the riding and the exodus of jobs from the area to points East and South. There have been eight provincial election cycles starting with the 1972 Provincial Election and the NDP has been victorious in five of them; twice in the last three provincial election cycles. In the most recent 2004 Federal Elections, the NDP in this area [Skeena-Bulkley Valley] was victorious after having regained most of their past support. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is the only riding, out of the nine located in the North and Interior of B.C., that went NDP. I predict that the Provincial Riding of Skeena will be won by the NDP.
12 03 05 Deep Thoughts
I thought I would check first and low and behold the NDP won every Kitimat poll in the Federal election and split Terrace down the middle. The NDP usually builds upon federal results, not the other way around folks. Add the clear likleyhood that Nathan Cullen the current NDP MP (and rookie of the year) will be out on doorsteps and heart Attack or not Roger Harris is in trouble. A solid campaign team will put Austin over the top.
28 02 05 Nick Boragina
Despite the name, and federal history of this riding, provincially it has been very right-wing. In the last 2 elections, the Liberals did very well here, beyond that, the MLA is popular locally. Easy win.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
Judging simply by the numbers from the past two elections, this would look like an easy Liberal win considering they got 65% in 2001, while they only lost in 1996 due to the strong Reform Party showing who got 20% giving the liberal/reform party combination a total of 55%. However many in the North feel neglected by the liberals and feel they are more interested in the Lower Mainland than the North, therefore I could see the NDP pulling off an upset. In the Lower Mainland, voters are less volatile therefore the liberal vote won't drop as much there as it will in the Interior and Island. Although of the three ridings in the federal riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley, I would say this is the most winneable for the liberals.

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