Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:37 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:53 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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Harry Bains
Green Party
Dan Deresh
The Platinum
Jeff Robert Evans
Democratic Reform BC
Harry Grewal
BC Liberal
Daniel Igali
Work Less
Gordon Scott

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-8.37%
Area (km2):21
Pop Density:2057.14

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Panorama Ridge

15 05 05 user
Daniel Igali will add a great addition to the awesome BC Liberals team. When I go around the area, I see a lot of Indo-Canadians support in the area. I see a lot of Daniel Igali signs all over the privite properties, much meens there is a lot of support for him. Even Harry Bains have some profile, but Daniel has a higher one. Speaking of which, Daniel is going to win the riding.
15 05 05 Max Power
Mr. Igali is the true epitome of a 'star candidate' and I think the voters of Surrey Newton will think about that, the adversity he's gone through in life, how much he cares about people, and how much he'll raise the profile of the riding in the legislature. For those reasons, I think this one's going Liberal.
15 05 05 canadian dave
Although this riding is tradionally NDP I believe that Daniel Igali is running for the right reasons and that because of this he will win. He doesnt have strong ties to the BC Liberal Party in the past and so I dont believe that he will suffer for their apparent unpopularity. He is a hometown and national hero who is running to give back to his adopted country. And lets face it, if people come to the ballot undecided there is a far more likely chance that they will vote for a name they recognize rather then along party lines. I believe that his dedication to and popularity amongs the ethnic community will ensure him a narrow victory but a victory none the less.
16 05 05 Fabian B
Surrey Newton was--unfortunately--in the news on Saturday for the wrong reasons due to the appearance of a flyer which urged people to vote for Bains over Igali on the basis of their skin colour. It is creditable that both main candidates (Bains and Igali) quickly disavowed any knowledge or involvement in the making of this racist pamphlet and Igali has also said that he doesn't believe anyone directly involved in the Bains' campaign team would have created such a despicable item. I don't know if the flyer's appearance will have an impact on voters' intentions in Newton but it is safe to say that this kind of ugly politics is beyond the pale.
Personally, I thought it was creditable that Igali did not make too much of this poster in the main news channel: he just said that this kind of nonsense should not appear in the 21st Century in Canada and left it at that. Other candidate may have tried to exploit this issue to score political points but Igali showed much class here and quickly moved on to other issues.
On other matters, since my last post, I have learned that Bains was chosen as the NDP candidate here six months ago compared to Igali only 2 or 3 months ago which helps to partly explain Bains' organizational strength among the influential Indo-Canadian community. But as I have observed, Igali also has some significant support in this community though there is a gap between the two. Basically, the side who motivates their supporters to vote the most will probably win Newton but I just don't know how most non-Sikh voters here will vote. Will they vote for the well known Igali or the slighly lower profile union organiser--Bains? The answer will come on May 17 I guess. As an Aside, Bains has an advantage in the polling booth--his name appears on the top of the voting ballot which is arranged alphabetically whereas Igali's name occurs towards the bottom of the ballot in the Fifth line(I know since I just voted in the advance polls). However, this arrangement probably won't make too much of a difference since most voters at the polls already know who they will vote for anyway and everyone knows Igali. Since the BC Liberals have a substantial 15-20% lead in the Greater Vancouver Mainland suburbs according to the latest Ipsos-Reid poll, I maintain my current opinion of a Liberal hold here due to a swing by voters for a likely government MLA but freely acknowledge that if Bains wins substantial backing(at say 80-90%) in the Indo-Canadian community here, then this riding will likely swing to the NDP in 2005.
11 05 05 S. Bains
Fabian is not too far off, but as in Green Timbers, it is my view that Danial Igali will have too much of a vote deficit in the Indo-Cdn community to be able to overcome among non-Indo-Cdn voters. Come May 17th, Harry Bains will be the MLA from Newton and BC Liberals will be wondering why on earth they did not run Danial in the one Surrey riding he could deliver: Panorama Ridge.
07 05 05 Fabian B
Just to give you an update on the situation in my home riding--Surrey Newton--it seems that the 'sign battle' is intensifying by the day. Several different neighbours of mine are prominently displaying Liberal Igali or NDP Bains election signs on their lawns. (I have none on mine!) Since I live here, I drive through the riding on a daily basis and see many homes with NDP and Liberal signs on private property which is an important, though not foolproof, indicator of candidate support. While there still seems a more NDP signs on private property at present, it is clear to me that Igali has significant support within the Indo-Canadian riding. Indeed, as I noted earlier, Igali is even treated by many Sikhs as one of their known and has been given the honorary name of "Toffan Singh." He is also an expert at the sport of Kabbadi, which is popular among Indo-Canadians.
What I wonder is how the majority non-partisan electorate will vote at the ballot booth on May 17? Will they go for Igali(the famous Olymic winning wrestler) or the slighly less well known Bains? At this moment in time, the riding is on a knife edge and it is appropriate that the BC Prediction web site places this riding in the 'Too Close to Call' category, unlike the Tyee's "Likely NDP." In my Opinion, only a brave person will definitely say NDP or Liberal. I don't know but the outcome will certainly be close; hence, the intense sign wars and door knocking campaigns by both main parties here. A more pro-Liberal leaning vote from the inhabitants of the more wealthier neighbourhoods in this riding such as Chimney Heights, Shaughnessy Estates or Bear Creek could be counterbalanced by a more Pro-NDP slant by working or lower middle class voters living in the slightly more blue collar homes and townhomes of Strawberry Hills, Newton Town Centre, and Kennedy Heights. But even then Strawberry Hills(where I live) has steadily been going more upscale in the past few years under the current economic boom with many old time(ie: formerly blue collar owned) Rancher homes here being torn down and immediately replaced with $350,000 Bungalows or Two Storey dwellings with a Suite.
Perhaps the election will hinge on name recognition. If it does, then Igali could win but with a small margin. That is why I am sticking to my current prediction of a Liberal hold here provided the Liberals maintain a 6-7% lead in the Lower Mainland over the NDP but the outcome is still far from certain. As far as I can see, the Indo-Canadian vote is somewhat split on the 2 candidates and both have their bases of support in this community although I suspect Bains has an edge here over Igali based merely on the fact that he is Sikh by birth. But if it becomes clear that a Liberal government will be elected on May 17, voters may simply choose Igali just to get a Liberal MLA in Victoria to represent their riding, rather than Bains. There are no hard and fast rules in Newton today(though getting a majority of the Indo-Canadian vote definitely helps!) and the 1996 election results are not particularly applicable because at that time voters here were simply chose to retain a highly effective and popular incumbent--Pennny Priddy--as opposed to voting for 2 new candidates which is the current situation.
29 04 05 Fabian B
While Surrey-Newton is traditionally an NDP riding, I feel that in 2005 the current Liberal candidate--Daniel Igali--has a slight edge over his NDP opponent, Mr. Bains. While I freely admit that I see more NDP signs on private property than Liberal signs(perhaps a tribute to the NDP candidate's base among Indo-Canadains) here, Igali is also extremely popular among the Indo-Canadian community and has been actively canvassing in the riding. I think most Indo-Canadians here regard him as one of their own. Secondly, there has been a tremendous economic boom in Surrey Newton most notably in the Chimney Heights area of this riding where hundreds of $400,000+ homes are being built and sold in record time. These new homeowners didn't play a large role in 2001 and are natural Liberal constituents who could tip the balance in favour of the Liberals. Finally, there is the intangible 'star factor': everyone in Canada knows Daniel Igali and respects his athletic and community contributions--his Olympic gold medal in Sydney and his natural charisma. So, I have to give Igali a slight edge at present but if the Liberals win, it likely won't be a blowout because this riding has a significant "blue collar" NDP base of support unlike other wealthier ridings like Surrey-White Rock or Surrey-Cloverdale which is influenced by the Bible-belt.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Looking at only the 1996 results, this would look like an easy NDP win, but according to an internal poll by the liberals, Igali currently has a four point lead, which is within the margin of error. Also If you take the fact the Liberals got 58% in 2001 and are polling at 51% in the Lower Mainland while the NDP got 21% in 2001 and are polling at 37% in the Lower Mainland and make the appropriate adjustments, the results would be NDP 44% Liberals 42%. Therefore as long as the liberals maintain a healthy lead in the Lower Mainland this should be a close race. If they fall back into a neck-neck battle with the NDP in the Lower Mainland then they will likely lose this riding.
11 04 05 first name
Hasn't anyone seen the '96 election results? The NDP will win this riding easily. In both the last two election results, in fact, this riding has supported the NDP at a substantially higher percent than the provincial popular vote. Harry is a high-profile member of the Indo-Canadian community running in strong NDP riding in a close election. Do the math, folks.
06 04 05 I.K
Daniel Igali is attending Punjabi classes numerous times a week - this just shows his committment to reaching out to the Indo-Canadian vote.
He'll definitely be more energetic and enthusiastic on the hustling. Even for NDP supporters, he has a great story and a great personality, I can't see how Bains can beat him.
28 03 05 S. Bains
At this point, the edge is with Harry Bains. Bains has been working this riding for quite sometime and has built up commitments of support based on his hard work within the riding and the Indo-Cdn community. Igali certainly brings "star" quality to the race, and he does have some profile within the Indo-Cdn community, but his base of support is not deep. Further, he does not have the time to pound the pavement and get to the doorsteps - Harry has been around the riding a few times and personal contact counts for a lot in the Indo-Cdn community. What the Panorama Ridge By-Election demonstrated was not that Indo-Cdns voted in a "block", rather that it showed that there was widespread dissatisfaction within the Indo-Cdn community toward the BC Libs. Nothing since last fall has changed this reality and therefore, Green Timbers, Newton and Panorama Ridge are all likely to go NDP.
The only question here is why the BC Libs put a candidate of Daniel Igali's stature in a riding where he has at best a 50-50 chance of winning? Why not nominate him in further south in Panorama Ridge or in a safer seat?
24 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Even if Daniel Igali gets a prominent member of the Indo-Canadian community to endorse him, he's still running against another prominent member of the Indo-Canadian community, Harry Baines. And supposing you don't believe in the importance of ethnic block voting and that's completely fair btw, one can't then say "but ahh Daniel Igali got the endorsement of a prominent member of the Indo-Canadian community". This means that either the ethnic factor is a wash, or it's in Harry Baines favour.
Second this (prediction) has nothing to do with my partisanship, or biases, this however has everything to do with reality. The reality is that the NDP won this seat in 96' by 20 points. As everyone knows this election will be much closer, the NDP will not loose by 35 points. In 1996 the Liberals were still well ahead in the lower mainland. As anyone who witnessed the election would tell you, the Liberals will do better overall than the NDP in the lowermainland. But that is largely do to their very strong majorities in seats in areas such as South Surrey, Langley, the North Shore, Richmond, South West Vancouver and (south) Delta. The only comprable area (in terms of winning as strong of a majority as the Liberals for the NDP -- not simply solidly NDP seats) within the Lower Mainland are in East Vancouver and Northern Surrey. This riding is in Northern Surrey so draw the conclusion.
All of the history and background information indicates it will go NDP. It is therefore preduent to predict an NDP victory. And while people might like Daniel Igali as a person, they will most likely pick the NDP as a party over him, and reject the Liberal party he is running for. It's largely irrelevent that he (as an individual is running) running because individuals usually do not swing a 20 point gap, there are far too many other factors in play. And besides the NDP are still going to question his capabilities as an MLA, just because he's Daniel Igali doesn't mean he's Jesus or something.
Besides, many star Candidates run in elections, for instance the federal Liberals had plenty run in BC during the last federal election. The only ones that got elected where Ujjal Dosanjh (in one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province) and David Emerson (in a Liberal/NDP swing riding). Shirley Chan's and David Haggard's star power didn't help them did it? And they where running in ridings with a similar lack of Liberal tradition, to the BC Liberals lack of tradition in winning Surrey Newton.
20 03 05 Cornpop
Most people are expecting Igali to win this seat, but let me ask the NDP naysayers one question. Why would anyone NOT vote for Igali besides the fact they don't want to vote Liberal? I don't think there is anyone in Surrey that dislikes Igali. Many people will hold their noses and vote for Igali even though he is a Liberal.
19 03 05
I live in surrey newton and i am indo canadian. We should not be comparing the surrey panorama by-elections to the real elections. Daniel Igali is not an indo Canadian by birth, but most of the indo Canadian people I know accept Daniel as one of their own. It would be revealing to see how they would vote.
A kabaddi star who is very involved in the community, who publicly talks about his connection to the Indo-canadian community and coaches the Hargobind wrestling team deserves the suport of people who want youth, activism, and integrity on their side. I think it will be a close election, but daniel should come out slightly on top. I bet you Tophan Singh, as Daniel is known in the Indo-Canadian community, is more popular even in Indo-canadian circles than Harry Bains. When it somes to this election, I do not see a block vote either way, daniel and Harry will share the Indo canadian votes, and the elction will be decided by the rest of the voting population, which makes up about 60% of the eligible votes.
11 03 05 M. Lunn
I was recently talking to some people from the riding and heard Daniel Igali has a strong association with the Indo-Canadian community. I initially assumed there would be a repeat of what happened in Surrey-Panorama Ridge where the Indo-Canadian community would vote as a block for the NDP candidate who is Indo-Canadian. I still think the NDP has an edge, but if Igali can get an endorsement for a high profile member of the Indo-Canadian community than he should win easily. I am predicting this won't be as close as some say regardless of the outcome. Either Igali will win by a large margin or Harry Bains will win by a large margin depending on who the Indo-Canadian community votes for.
11 03 05 Mike Mulroney
The dismissive presumption that EVERYONE in the East Indian community will only vote for an East Indian candidate is degrading and naive. Many will support the Democratic Reform Candidate, many will vote for the NDP, but many in the community also support Daniel Igali and/or the BC Liberals. Daniel Igali, a refugee from Nigeria, is a humanitarian and an Olympic gold medalist: an inspiration to immigrants and natives alike, and a real source of pride for the community.
Last election, the BC Liberals had more than a 20% point lead on the NDP in Surrey-Newton. This time around the party will be less popular, but public opinion has not changed so much that even a star candidate like Daniel Igali cannot win the riding. This will be a riding to watch, but in the end it will go to not so much the BC Liberals, but to Daniel Igali.
13 03 05 David
Hmm, I wonder how many of these prediction come from Surrey?
I would like to point to the federal election results. There you have 2 Indo-Canadian and 1 Caucasian candidates. At the end, the caucasian candidate is only 1500 votes away from victory over the 2 Indo-Canadian candidates. Why? Because most people are turned off by the ugly nomination battles in Surrey where a popular MP got unseated by instant members and a riding association that has more members than the voters. You might say that Surrey residents are turned off by these type of tactics. It's reflected in the federal election results
In terms of star candidates, don't forget that NDP ran Penny Priddy in 1996. She is a high profile cabinet member in Glen Clark government. Couple with the fact that she is battling breast cancer in 1996, she received a lot of press converage compared to her opponent. 2005 will be a similar situation. With star candidate of Daniel Igali for the BC Liberals receiving most of the press converage and an Indo-Canadian candidate for the NDP, it's not hard to see how the table is turned.
Given the fact that Daniel Igali have more name recognition than his NDP counterpart, I predict he will win this riding.
08 03 05 Sacha P.
The NDP will win by a slight (about 5%) margin over the Liberals. Although nobody will admit to it publicly, race will be a big issue - according to the 2001 census, 17000 people in the riding have East Indian ethnicity and this will lead to Bains' (NDP) election. The Liberals nominated Igali, who is not East Indian and probably won't win too many additional votes with the fact that he won a gold metal in the 2000 olympics. The only question is how much of the popular vote DRBC (Grewal) can siphon from the NDP - my guess is that they will get 5% of the vote, but it won't nearly be enough to prevent Bains from taking it.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
As much as I would like to see Daniel Igali win this riding, I cannot see it happening. This is a strong NDP riding traditionally considering the NDP won by 18 points in 1996 despite the fact the Liberals had an Indo-Canadian candidate and the NDP had a white candidate. Add to the fact there is a large Indo-Canadian community and the NDP has an Indo-Canadian candidate, the NDP should win this. Having Daniel Igali run only means the NDP will probably win by 10% as opposed to 20%.
27 02 05 A. Vancouverite
Both parties have promised "star candidates", they've delivered to a limited extent in Surrey. But like the NDP they've decided to run their "star candidate" in an extremely un-winnable riding. While Daniel Igali is a nice guy who can avoid, to a certain extent, the meanness that Gordon Campbell emits it's simply not enough against an NDP candidate of Indian decent in a riding with a large population of Indian decent and left leaning tendencies that the NDP won by over 20% in 1996. Like the NDP's Moh Chelali in Surrey White Rock, the guy who saved the French President's life, he has no chance regardless of the fact that he's likeable guy.
02 03 05 P. Kelly
This riding should be declared immediately for the NDP. It doesn't matter what star candidate the Liberals have running. This area is a traditional NDP area. Star candidates and 'nice guys' lose too. The Liberals picked the wrong riding to use a star candidate.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
As much as I would like to see Daniel Igali win, based on past results and the fact the NDP are running an Indo-Canadian in a riding with a large Indo-Canadian community, Harry Bains will likely come out on top. Daniel Igali should have run in Langley instead where he would almost certainly win. The only way the liberals can win is if Igali can obtain an endorsement from some prominent member of the Indo-Canadian community, which doesn't look likely at this point.
24 02 05 BLJ
Along with Surrey Whalley and Surrey Green Timbers, this inner Surrey riding will again revert to the NDP based upon their roughly 40% provincial polling levels.
24-Feb-05 KH
Olympian Daniel Igali adds a star tough to the Liberals in Newton. He's also popular in the Indo-Canadian community. This one will be close, but the Liberals should take it.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
Daniel Igali will not win this seat, this is a srong NDP seat and Harry Bains is very popular in a riding with a large Indo population.

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