Election Prediction Project

Delta North
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:15 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:29 PM 27/03/2005

Constituency Profile

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Guy Gentner
Green Party
John Hague
BC Liberal
Jeannie Kanakos
John Shavluk
British Columbia Party
David Andrew Wright

BC Liberals:
MASI, Reni
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:8.70%
Area (km2):22
Pop Density:2329.55

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta South
New Westminster
Richmond East
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Panorama Ridge

12 05 05 randy
i disagree with the recent posters,guy gentner is going to win this hands down.he's better known than the lib cadidate,his campaign team is out working his competitors and lastly if you remember that mr.gentner is a delta city councillor,and at the end of the last municipal election he was the top vote getter for council.one other thing he has going for him is he is a moderate middle of the road new democrat which will win him a lot of federal liberal votes.the liberal candidate will reach 35%of the vote with guy gentner taking50% and the rest of the parties takng the rest of the votes.
10 05 05 SLN
To KP who claims that the signs on 116 spell a win for the NDP. I wish to point out that most of those signs have since disappeared once the property owners realized that they were not FORCED to have those signs up eventhough they do not support the NDP. The NDP cunningly put up the signs all over without checking with the property owners before hand and that includes some of their bigger signs. Looks to me that the NDP is desperate, while the Liberals are in good shape to keep the riding.
10 05 05 Kelly S.
People who think the NDP will take this riding are not realistic. The only thing that could have pushed the NDP to victory here would have been Reni Masi running again. He was himself much less popular than the Liberal Party, and now with a new name on the ballot and Masi out, the Liberals will win here comfortably.
09 05 05 Fabian Boudville
I live in Surrey Newton within 5 blocks of Scott Road and North Delta. So, I know something about the recent history of this riding. As regards the Indo-Canadian vote, Campbell has made amends for his embarassing 2004 byelection loss in Surrey-Panorama Ridge by appointing a Punjabi Sikh to Cabinet(Patty Sahota from Burnaby) and courted Bob Hans and Wally Oppal to run for him in Surrey and Vancouver respectively. So, Campbell has paid much more attention to this community and even Gulzar Cheema, the former Liberal MLA for Surrey-Panorama Ridge, was quoted in a recent Vaughn Palmer Vancouver Sun article as saying that relations between the Sikh community and the BC Liberals has improved significantly since Brar's election.
As for my prediction on the fate of Delta North, I am merely relying on the previous history of this riding which went Liberal in 1996 even under a generally weak Liberal campaign and the demographic of this area--the fact that certain high income neighbourhoods most notably Sunshine Hills will likely vote for the Liberal candidate. Will McMartin of the Tyee web site also places this riding in the 'Solid Liberal' column presumably due to some of the considerations I mentioned. While I like the current BC Liberal government's economic record, I am not a member of any political party and am a realist at heart. I did predict that Whalley would go NDP no matter what and only a hard core Liberal supporter would differ. I have maintained that Surrey-Green Timbers is too close to call at the moment. And yes, KP, I have voted NDP before: in 1996, I supported Penny Priddy's re-election in my riding because of her strong and effective representation of Newton's interests in Victoria
08 05 05 K.P.
Not only are there no problems with the Indo-Canadian support for the NDP, the president of the Scott Road temple made his extreme dislike of Gordon Campbell very clear the last time Gordo showed his face . One of the Indo-Canadian papers stated that Cheema (Surrey) and Sandhu, the cab driver who tried to hijack the NDP nomination meeting have done more damage to the Indo-Canadian community than the worst of racists. Jeannie Kanakos is in hiding and has not shown up at any all candidates meetings, choosing instead to sent a pre-written statement. I'm assuming, Fabian, that you live in North Delta (or are you writing in from Winnipeg, where all your polling is being done?) Take a drive down 116h street and see the sea of Gentner signs. you'll soon be seeing them on all streets. The NDP can't keep up with the requests. Note, also, that not only are they all on private property, a lot of the homes are obviously Indo-Canadian. (even the ones on the lots being built on)
And on the subject of phoning from Winnipeg, the Liberals aren't getting their moneys worth. They either don't know whose running, when asked, or still think it's Reni Masi.
04 05 05 Fabian B
Jeannie Kanakos will win Delta North over Guy Gentner of the NDP due to the booming economy and the strong pro-Liberals demographics of this riding. North Delta has one of the highest per capita GDP income in the North Delta-North Surrey region. Even at the height of the NDP's fortunes in the 1996 election under Glen Clark--where the NDP swept Surrey Newton, Surrey Green Timbers and Surrey Whalley--the then Liberal candidate here, Reni Masi, still won Delta North albeit by only 648 votes. The trend in the riding must now be pro-Liberal since property values here have risen exponentially in the North Delta, Newton and Panorama Ridge areas of Surrey under the current economic boom. People feel wealthy and are more inclined to support the incumbent party based on its economic successes.
In my Opinion, the wealthier North Delta Neighbourhoods of Sunshine Hills, Canterbury Heights, Royal York and Delsom Village will go strongly Liberal while the rest of the riding will split their vote more evenly between NDP and Liberal. These 4 aforementioned neighbourhoods will help propel Jeannie Kanakos to victory even though I admit that Gentner has more civic political experience. However, in Federal and Provincial Elections, people usually vote for the party rather than the candidate. This contrasts with this history of local Civic/Municipal Elections where a strong personality can win--witness high profile NDPer Penny Priddy's election to Surrey City Hall in 2002 when she ran as an independent candidate.
02 05 05 Fabian B
Plase note that Delta North boasts the Highest level of income earners per riding in the North Delta-North Surrey region. These upper income voters will definitely turn out to the polls to support the Liberals. In 1996, even under Gordon Campbell's relatively weak ('remember his unconvincing guitar strumming TV ads') campaign, the Liberals still handily won this riding under Reni Masi. And this happened at a time when the resurgent NDP vote--under Glen Clark--captured all the neighbouring Surrey ridings like Newton, Whalley and Green Timbers! While Reni has now retired, there can be little doubt that Ms. Kanakos will win Delta North for the Liberals. The riding's demographics favour her candidacy.
The fact that Guy Gentner won the NDP candidacy in Delta North over a competing Indo-Canadian candidate after a much publicised struggle suggests to me that some Indo-Canadian voters will not be too enamoured with his candidacy. I'm sure that the struggle did little to help boost NDP morale in this Liberal friendly riding and may have even fractured the NDP base in some respects. Don't forget that John Cummins, the Conservative MP for Delta-Richmond East, has handily won Delta in each Federal election which implies that the small c-conservative vote here is strong and will turn out in support of Ms. Kanakos. Yes, Mr. Gentner has a good record of public service at Delta City Hall while Ms Kanakos has less political experience. However politics at the Provincial and Municipal level is quite different because the stakes are far higher in a Provincial election. In my Opinion, the relatively wealthy Sunshine Hills, Royal York, Delsom and Canterbury Heights neighbourhoods of Delta North will go strongly Liberal and propel Kanakos to victory come May 17. The only area of uncertainty will be her margin of victory.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
After re-distribution, Reni Masi would have won by 5% as opposed to 2% under the current boundaries in 1996. Add to the fact the liberals are polling five to ten percent higher in the Lower Mainland than 1996 means they will not lose any of the ridings they won in 1996 no matter how popular the local candidate is. The only liberal ridings from 1996 the NDP might take are in the Interior and Island and even that is somewhat questionable at this point. Except for 1991 and 1972, this riding was a traditional Social Credit riding and BC Liberal riding since 1996 and unlike 1991 and 1972 where the NDP formed government, this time around they won't so Jeannie Kanakos will be going to Victoria come May 17th.
20 04 05 K.P.
It was noted that Jeannie Kanakos (Liberal candidate) ran in the last municipal election and lost. Jeannie came in 6th or 7th in every poll except one. Guy Gentner came in first, in every poll, except the one that Jeannie came in, I believe fourth. (could have been first)
Guy has a proven record of fighting for North Delta (pick up any local paper) and it is highly unlikely that a trip to Victoria would change that. This is well known in the community, and Guy has the respect of those who would never think of supporting the NDP,but will support Guy, as an individual. Jeannie's downfall will begin with the first public all candidates meeting. North Delta got a taste of her rambling at a public meeting where it was apparent that she wanted people to hear her name and see what she looked like. She should have practised an intelligent question.
18 04 05 W.E.J.
Guy Genter will win this without trouble, because the Liberals have lost their popularity in Delta and Genter has credibility from his years as a Municipal Councillor.
15 04 05 S Kerr
M. Lunn is mistaken. The NDP Won most polls in North Delta, including my poll in the Sunbury area with million dollar homes! In fact, in many polls the conservative (winning) candidate came third! I was quite surprized with the support for the NDP with what was a lesser known candidate in the riding. Federal election results, however, do not translate to Provincial elections. But it does show the tendancy for the majority of the riding to look to the center of the political spectrum. If Gordon Campbell shows his true right of center self, it could damage the chances of victory in North Delta, as well as other swing ridings like Kamloops.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Were the NDP and Liberals neck and neck in the Lower Mainland this would be a swing riding, but considering the liberals have a 14 point lead, that is not the case. The NDP only got 29% in the last federal election and only came close to winning due to a three way split between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP, and the Conservatives would have lost the riding had one only taken the Surrey polls while won by a more comfortable margin if one took only the Delta polls. Remember this was part of John Cummins' riding before re-distribution and he always won with comfortable margins. Interestingly as a side note, the federal liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal is a big BC Liberal supporter while Gurmant Grewal has stated several times he will not vote Liberal provincially.
12 04 05 S Kerr
This is one of those true swing ridings in BC, and I do not think that it can be called either way until the writ is dropped. Guy is a strong candidate, well known in the community and, as has been stated, topped the polls in the municipal election in the North Delta polls. I think until both Campbell and James really get going on the election trail, and someone makes a mistake (which will happen) this riding will not be able to be called.
Keep in mind, during the last Federal election the NDP polled extremely highly in the North Delta polls (higher than expected I would think)This is a Center-Center left middle class community (for the most part) with a large Indo-Canadian community. Who comes across as catering to the middle class, or who appears to the electorate as being closest to the center of the political spectrum will take this.
09 04 05 M. Lunn
With the liberals having a 14 point lead in the Lower Mainland, they will not lose ANY Lower Mainland ridings they won in 1996. The economy is strong in the Lower Mainland and the cuts have not hit the Lower Mainland as hard as elsewhere so with the exception of a few East Van seats, a few Tri City, and North Surrey seats, the liberals will keep most of their Lower Mainland seats, lose most of the Island seats, while split the Interior 50/50. Besides in the last federal election the Conservatives won most of the polls on the Delta side of Newton-North Delta, while the NDP and Liberals were stronger on the Surrey side, so the BC Liberals will get all the Conservative + 1/2 liberal votes = a BC liberal win.
02 04 05 S. Bains
Hang on folks - this one is going to be far closer than most understand. Gentner is a relatively high-profile name for the NDP. While Kinakos ran in the last municipal election and lost, she does not have the same profile and is not a compelling political personality. Further, the demographics of the riding favour the NDP - North Delta generally consists of older middle class homes. In addition, there are significantly more Indo-Cdns in the riding than last time, and this community is rock-solid behind the NDP. The flap over the NDP nomimation has faded and the Indo-Cdn taxi driver who had attempted to secure the nomination was completely unknown in the community, so there will be little political fall-out from that issue in the election.
In short, this is a swing seat and definitely too close to call at this point, but I would give the edge to Gentner since he will have a much stronger team on the ground and has higher name recognition in the community.
05 04 05 Matt
Bear in mind that the '96 election was won by the Libs by mere inches. Guy Gentner is a prominent community activist and Delta Councillor who topped the polls in North Delta in the last municipal election (as opposed to Jeannie Kanakos, who is barely known at all). As long as the provincial election stays close, Guy will have enough of an edge over Jeannie to pull it out.
Hasn't anyone seen the '96 election results? The NDP will win this riding easily. In both the last two election results, in fact, this riding has supported the NDP at a substantially higher percent than the provincial popular vote. Harry is a high-profile member of the Indo-Canadian community running in strong NDP riding in a close election. Do the math, folks.
22 03 05 Rob S.
I agree with other posters. Reni Masi was one of the worst MLAs Delta North ever had, most people didn't even know his name in his first term. His performance was absolutely dismal during the 2001 debates and everyone took pot-shots at him which he completely deserved. He had no charisma or ability, yet he won with a landslide. The Liberals could run a donkey in this riding and it will get elected, so I think the Liberals will win this one easily.
09 03 05 Scott G.
When I lived here, this riding elected a criminally-inclined Socred and a crotchety-high-school-principal Liberal, with the NDP's '91 win being the only blip. If the right can win with such poor material in the past, then I don't see why they couldn't win with Jeannie Kanakos, a member of the Burns Bog Conservation Society.
Guy Gentner has a long history of local activism, and was recently elected to council. His NDP nomination victory was disputed by another candidate who had signed up a large number of instant members to the party, and the NDP then took the unusual step of appointing Gentner, who they saw as a more reliable New Democrat than the other candidate. I'd say Gentner has a chance of winning, but the Greens may jeopardize this.
John Hague is running again for the Greens, and his name recognition and previous experience should help him. The Greens took just enough votes in '96 for the Liberals to narrowly beat the NDP incumbent. I'd predict a similarly close race this time, with the same result.
08 03 05 JC
This is going to be a Liberal hold, mostly because the NDP nomination race was extremely disputed so the Liberals are going to win.
24 02 05 BLJ
While Delta North was narrowly won by the NDP in 1991 (with the Socred/Liberal split) this area tends to lean centre-right politically with such areas as Sunshine Hills.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Although this was a close one in 1996, Liberal support hasn't dropped a lot in the Lower Mainland. Much of its decline has been in the interior and the Island, so I think they should be able to hold this one, although it will likely be a lot closer than in 2001.

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