Election Prediction Project

Delta South
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
1:14 AM 11/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:46 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Dileep Joseph Anthony Athaide
Vicki Huntington
Green Party
Duane Laird
No Affiliation
George Mann
BC Liberal
Valerie Roddick
Julian Bellamy Wooldridge

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-5.23%
Area (km2):240
Pop Density:186.17

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
Richmond East
Surrey-Panorama Ridge
Surrey-White Rock

08 05 05 ghoris
The Dippers on this board must be hanging out with the Marijuana party if they seriously think they've got a chance in this, the most right-wing of GVRD ridings. All this talk of 'coming up the middle' is pointless - to benefit from a vote split, the NDP would still have to attract something like 35 percent of the vote on its own - and it ain't gonna happen. Even in the 'perfect storm' election of 1991 - NDP momentum, right-wing vote split by Liberals and Socreds - the NDP failed to win.
I don't live in the riding but I have family that does and I'm in Tsawwassen once or twice a week. People here are naturally inclined to vote for the Liberals. There's still some festering anger over the Delta hospital issue but aside from a few hard-core activists most people have just accepted it and moved on. Anyone still mad enough at Roddick will just vote for Huntington - it's a 'safe' alternative for right-wing Delta South voters. The only other possible outcome here is for Huntington to pull off an upset win, but I think Roddick will hang on since it sounds like a lot of the anger over the Delta hospital closure has subsided. But one thing's for sure, an NDP win is not in the cards.
08 05 05 A. Phillips
With only a little over a week before the biggest upset in British Columbia about to happen...the temperature is rising in Delta South! They say only losing parties get negative...well I guess Dileep and his NDP folks have thrown in the hat. This has been a very clean and polite campaign until the last couple of weeks when, led by a very rude Dileep Athaide at an all candidate's meeting, his troops have started the hate mail to the local newspapers. Dileep can't open his mouth for more than five minutes without putting down Vicki Huntington. She is the main target now for the NDP and not Val and the Liberals. Interesting to say the least. Unfortunately, word on the street has it that this is only damaging his campaign and not helping. No doubt Dileep will get more votes than the last NDP candidate who ran provincially, Ruth Adams, but he won't win. I predict that the Marijuana party will be last, Greens second, NDP will run third, Liberals will run second and Huntington will hit the finish line long before the rest.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I would agree with the previous poster that Vicki Huntingdon probably has a better chance of winning this than the NDP candidate. The Liberal/Independent vote would half to split in half for the NDP to even have a chance at taking this since this is a conservative riding. Even in 1991 when the Liberals/Social Credit split the vote, the NDP still finished behind. However, Independents, unless they are an incumbent rarely get elected so Vicki Huntingdon will no doubt hurt Val Roddick and Val Roddick certainly won't get the 59% Fred Gingell got in 1996, but she will still be re-elected. Besides should Vicki Huntingdon pull off an upset, she is a BC Liberal supporter anyways and would probably join the caucus.
02 05 05
Having spoken to a few people who live in this riding, it may have to be moved to the "too close" column. Huntington seems to be drawing significant support away from Val Roddick, who is very unpopular over the whole Delta Hospital issue. A strong NDP candidate and a weak Green one make this look like a real 3-way race.
30 04 05 Pundit
Well. I was just in the riding, and talked to some people, everyone was saying they were considering voting for Vickie Huntingdon. She may do it, Roddick was almost recalled and remains a lot less popular than her party. This is not NDP country - it is not going to happen.
I heard several people muse about Vickie Huntingdon being the real heir to Fred Gingell
24 04 05 M. Lunn
This is a staunch conservative area. John Cummins got 45% in the last federal election and he did better on the Delta side as opposed to the Richmond side where the liberals were stronger. Add to the fact many federal liberals will vote liberal provincially and that means the NDP doesn't stand a chance. While the Delta Hospital decision will no doubt hurt Val Roddick, most of those votes will probably go to Vicki Huntingdon and so even if the two split the right wing vote 50/50, the NDP still wouldn't be able to win. I know people who live in Tswassen and it is very right wing compared to anywhere else in the Lower Mainland save the Fraser Valley. It is almost a rural type community that happens to be within commuting distance of the downtown area as opposed to a major suburb like Burnaby, Richmond, or Surrey.
18 04 05 BLJ
Delta South (Ladner and Tsawwassen) is the start of the southern conservative belt and therefore the seat is a stronghold for centre-right parties. While Vicki Huntington is well respected, I cannot see her obtaining more than 10% (could be as high as 15%) as an independent, which votes she will poach from the sittting Liberal, albeit not enough to prevent her re-election. Sitting MLA's themselves who subsequently run as independents are very rarely elected on an independent ticket. The only one that comes to mind provincially is Tom Uphill (Fernie) in the 1940's and 1950's and Chuck Cadman federally.
15 04 05 A. Phillips
I am very disappointed that you are discounting Independent candidate for Delta South, Vicki Huntington. She has a huge following and could very well win the seat in this riding. She will not split the vote so that Dileep can slide through. There's not a chance in hell of that happening in this very right-wing riding. Vicki is well known and very well liked and respected by the electorate. She has topped the municipal polls and knows what the people of Delta want, think and expect from their M.L.A. Val Roddick doesn't fit that bill at all.
14 04 05 Tommie
This is a constituency that really needs to be examined with special lenses on, because numerous unique circumstances have come to be in the area. The area has been a staunchly conservative area for decades. Provincially, Delta South has been held by a Social Credit or BC Liberal MLA since the Barrett years when voters sent a New Democrat to represent them in Victoria. A similar story can be told federally. But the last four years have been a wild ride for residents of Tsawwassen and Ladner and this is an anything-is-possible election for Delta South.
First and foremost was the significant rollback of services at the community founded and supported Delta Hospital. The reaction was this was swift with a number of grassroots organizations springing up fighting to preserve all services at Delta Hospital. “Save Delta Hospital” yard signs sprouted up in thousands of front lawns in both Ladner and Tsawwassen.
The erosion of arable farmland by industrial greenhouse expansion has also had a negative impact on the community. The greenhouses are an eyesore and air and light pollution has increased noticeably much to the detriment of the people of Delta South. Again, we see community groups (and Delta city council, which is threatening the BC Liberal government with a civil lawsuit for overstepping municipal powers) springing up to fight against the continued expansion of the greenhouses.
The proposed expansion of electrical transmission lines running through residential districts in East Ladner and Tsawwassen by the BC Transmission Corporation. Immediately after the discreet plan was revealed, the Tsawwassen Residents Against High Voltage Lines (TRAVHOL) was formed. TRAVHOL fought tooth and nail against the proposal and so far, has met much success.
Finally, the famous Recall campaign that managed to get 10,000 people to sign to kick out Val Roddick. Hardly the feat of a BC Liberal deadlock constituency.
These cases all prove an important point. The seemingly docile, uninterested and sleepy communities and residents of Tsawwassen and Lander have spontaneously woken up and have become seasoned community activists in the past four years. The BC Liberal’s form of government has effected this once-silent constituency and this has been proven in earthquakes.
Vicky Huntington is another wildcard in this race. She will no doubt steal a lot of the BC Liberal’s flame as she is a self-admitted right-winger. Many of those who dislike Val Roddick but could not stomach a vote for the left-wing NDP will turn to the popular city councilor. Huntington’s candidacy virtually eliminates any chance of the incumbent MLA receiving any “too scared to vote NDP” ballots.
The profile and dynamics of the NDP campaign is also worth noting. This campaign comes off the energy that was seen in the last federal election. The NDP’s Itrath Syed almost tripled the party’s share of the vote in a riding that consists both of Tsawwassen and Ladner. The local New Democrats thus had a base from which to start organizing. The campaign has attracted Derrick O’Keefe, a young but seasoned NDP and anti-war organizer, as its campaign manager and Dave Berrett is the keynote speaker at an upcoming fundraiser. While the campaign doesn’t have a spark to the flames of New Democratic campaigns in Vancouver or on the island, it blows previous campaigns out of the water.
So what kind of situation do we have? A once docile and simple community turned into a hot spot for community activism. An unpopular MLA with a popular right-wing independent poised to split the anti- and non-NDP vote. And an NDP campaign of unprecedented magnitude riding an energetic wave. The result of this interesting combination is, in my opinion, a minor NDP victory.
07 04 05 M. Lunn
For those thinking the NDP will win this, get real. They lost this riding by 25 points in 1996 so there is no way they will overcome that type of deficit no matter how angry people are at Val Roddick. I agree that Val Roddick is a liability, but the NDP simply cannot overcome that type of deficit. Most people I have talked to Delta South who are angry at the liberals plan to stay home on election day so she will pull it off albeit with a slightly smaller margin than in 1996.
31 03 05 Tommie
The NDP is running the first campaign with a chance to win in Delta South in decades. The popularity of Roddick is massive. 10,000 people signed the Recall petition and hundreds more are very upset about her silence on various issues, such as the ending of many services at Delta Hospital. The announcement of Vicky Huntington running is good news for the local NDP. An open right-winger, she will split many of the traditional centre-right and right-wing votes. The NDP's Dileep Athaide will likely just sneak away with this one.
NDP: 8200
BCLib: 8000
Other/Ind: 3000
28 03 05 M. Lunn
I think Val Roddick's unpopularity will hurt her, but considering that a local candidate a most can swing the vote 10% and most of those angry at Val Roddick will probably go for the independent candidate. Under the worse case scenario for Val Roddick, she would still get 49% and the NDP would get 40%, but considering that is a right-leaning riding, after John Cummins got 45% federally and he did better on the Delta side than Richmond side, which went mostly liberal, so the BC Liberals despite some people's dislike of Val Roddick will still win easily. Besides Val Roddick contrary to popular opinion actually fought hard to keep the Delta Hospital open. Her biggest mistake is her criticisms were all done behind closed doors in the liberal caucus so except the party members, none of the community are aware of this. I think in the future, MLAs will be more publicly vocal to avoid having their image harmed. I also know many people from this riding who are unhappy with Val Roddick, but none plan to go NDP. They will either hold their nose up and vote liberal, vote Green Party, or in most cases stay home on election day. I suspect voter turnout will be quite low in this riding.
26 03 05 lanto
Looking at the report of Elections BC on the Delta South recall campaign (http://www.elections.bc.ca/rcl/r2002-001.html), you'd see that it was not as much of sham in this riding as M. Lunn is suggesting it was. They managed to get 9,999 valid signatures (audited by Elections BC), just short of the 12,000 they needed for recall. That is quite a feat considering that it was a grassroots, volunteer-run campaign and that recall requirements in BC are nearly impossible to meet. Roddick is by no means assured an easy victory in this riding.
21 03 05 M. Lunn
Although Val Roddick may not be popular, people tend to vote based on party as opposed to person and considering the fact this is a conservative riding, the liberals will win again easily. Besides people have short-term memories so the hospital issue will be forgotten by some although not all. In addition, the recall was largely a sham since many people signed more than once, many didn't even live in the riding or weren't eligible to vote. One American visitor was harrassed to sign and signed despite the fact he couldn't sign. From what I heard, many were intimidated into signing or weren't told what they were signing, so I wouldn't count on the recall as any indication.
11 03 05 Adam T
Popular Delta City Councillor Vicki Huntington is running as an independent. I don't think she'll win, but she could get 30% of the vote. The NDP has never been competitive here, not even in 1991. But, they did have a pretty good nomination battle, with 120 voting members.
12 03 05 Al Webb
You are decidedly short on your facts regarding the issues in South Delta. Not only is the Hospital a problem which caused 13,000 people to sign a recall petition, but the Liberals through an order in council now are allowing unfettered Agricultural Pollution of our air and night lighting. We are facing huge increases in Truck traffic congestion and pollution, with the planned expansion of the Container port, and now to add insult to injury upon injury, BCTC now plans to upgrade and increase the power to the Island transmission lines through Ladner and Tsawwassen which is a health risk to all citizens. If you think Roddick has a chance in hell of being reelected in Delta you are very poorly informed.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Even though Val Roddick is not very popular over her lack of action on the possible closure of the Delta hospital, most people vote for party as opposed to candidate so the Liberals should still hold this one. Even though Val Roddickès lack of action on the Delta Hospital will no doubt hurt her, but not enough to cost her, her seat. I am predicting the Liberals will get around 50% this time instead of the 59% in 1996 and the NDP will get between 35-40% as opposed to only 30%.

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