Election Prediction Project

Surrey-White Rock
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
2:01 AM 25/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:00 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Moh Chelali
Democratic Reform BC
Ronald Edward Dunsford
BC Conservative
David James Evans
BC Liberal
Gordon Hogg
Green Party
Ashley Brie Hughes

BC Liberals:
HOGG, Gordon
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:4.78%
Area (km2):68
Pop Density:726.47

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta South
Surrey-Panorama Ridge

23 04 05 Laurence Putnam
Libs won this by a margin of 56 points last time. They aren't going to keep all of that, but at the same time the NDP isn't going to take a minimum of 28 points away from the Liberals in order to beat Hogg in this very conservative riding.
As a point of reference, NDP candidate Chelali is the man who saved French President Chirac from the assassination attempt some time ago. While nobody can dispute that Chelali's actions were brave, selfless and representative of the best of British Columbians, its also something he's just a little too proud of on the campaign trail. (Check out his website, the first picture you'll see is him wearing the French Legion of Honour.)
Saving Jacques Chirac from an assassination is a good thing, but it does not in itself qualify you for public office. The media at least know what Chelali has done, and if he had been smarter he would have soft pedaled it and made himself look humble, and more than just a showbiz candidate by talking about substantive issues. The media would have promoted his heroism for him...the hero so humble he's not running on his heroism...but if he's going to do it all by his onesies, then their not going to bother...unless they comment that it's in poor taste.
Even so, it would have been at best implausible to assume the NDP could win here.
07 04 05 M. Lunn
Anyone who thinks the NDP will win this is nuts. The NDP will win some ridings in Surrey on the North side, but not this one. No matter how unpopular Gordon Hogg is, this is a solid conservative riding and since most people see the BC Liberals as conservatives they will win it easily. I am guessing 60% liberal, 30% NDP, 10% other.
31 03 05
Gordon Hogg made a mess of the Children's Ministry and then resigned in scandal. Chelali has an excellent chance at derailing the wreck that was Hogg's legacy. Chelali could very well derail this scandal ridden Hogg.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
As a rule of thumb, the further south you go in Surrey, the more right leaning the ridings become. The further north you go the more left leaning they become. Since this is the most southerly riding and has never gone NDP in recent memory, the Liberals should easily hold this one.

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