Election Prediction Project

New Westminster
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:34 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:29 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Robert Broughton
The Platinum
Greg Calcutta
BC Liberal
Joyce Murray
Chuck Puchmayr
Christina Racki
Democratic Reform BC
John Robinson Warren

BC Liberals:
MURRAY, Hon. Joyce
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:4.67%
Area (km2):18
Pop Density:2741.67

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
Richmond East

16 05 05 Krispy
In New Westminster, there are twice as many lawn signs as in 1996. The Chuck Puchmayr campaign is energized, and the campaign office is always chock full of volunteers.
Anyone who thinks St. Mary's is not an election issue is likely a Joyce campaign volunteer, because no one else in this community would make such a silly comment. Murray's hesitation to speak out on the issue, and her failure to save St. Mary's is the last nail in the political coffin of her lacklustre career.
13 05 05 Jack
As riding campaigns go, Chuck Puchmayr's been a submarine. I suspect the labour vote will turn out for him, but that does not deliver New Westminster anymore.
You just have to look at Helen Sparke's [narrow] loss to the NDP in the 1995 to realise how things have changed in the Royal City.
Expect a surprise on election day. I suspect Joyce Murray will actually prevail, but narrowly.
07 05 05
"With the exception of a few pockets in the community, St. Mary's is a dead issue on the streets of New Westminster"
- Are you serious Jack? St. Mary's is an issue even in neighbouring suburbs, so it remains one in New West as well.
Murray is going to be done in by her party's record on health, via the closure of St. Mary's, regardless of whether or not it was the right thing to do.
02 05 05
I think if it weren't for the closure of St. Mary's Hospital, Joyce Murray would probably win this, but anytime you close a community's hospital, that will close to you votes no matter how strong the economy is. Joyce Murray can still win this, but I would say the NDP currently has a leg up. I hope I am wrong on election day. In terms of signs, almost all the signs in the Burnaby-New Westminster portion of the riding are NDP, while the majority of signs in the New Westminster-Coquitlam portion are liberal.
27 04 05 Jack
a year ago I would not not have bet in favour of Joyce Murray getting reelected in New Westminster. In the past year, however, she's picked up a lot of momentum in the riding. The recent spate of announcements for health care and education can't help either.
She's clearly hit her stride as a candidate for re-election. A lot of her presentation's picked up and her campaign seems to be getting out a message about delivering for New Westminster.
Reports comparing her performance to that of the NDP candidate at the Chamber's all candidates meeting Monday might make one think she's got little to worry about. Chuck Puchmeyr was weak and didn't seem to have much sway with the room. At times it looked like he wasn't prepared to dig that deep.
If Joyce Murray wants it, she can probably get it. With the exception of a few pockets in the community, St. Mary's is a dead issue on the streets of New Westminster. Look for the NDP to thump the tubs for the - declining - union membership, and look for Murray to keep pushing the "this is what I can get you - if you vote for me next time".
It's early, but look for a surprise in our Royal City.
Whether it will be enough to
02 04 05 Adam T
Sure, Joyce Murray is in cabinet, but,
1.She totally failed the community on the hospital
2.She's a totally incompetent minister, and some in New West likely consider her an embarresment.
A traditional NDP riding that may be slowly shifting to the right (the 'right' controls the city council), but nowhere near enough to stop the NDP from winning a comfortable victory.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
New West is one of the safest seats for the NDP. Yeah, Joyce Murray is in cabinet, and yeah, the Libs won in 2001, but they won damn near everything in 2001. For the record, Graeme Bowbrick was a terrible candidate... who won handily. Chuck is a city councillor with good name recognition and is twice the candidate Bowbrick was. Add that to the St. Mary's hospital closure and you have one in the NDP column. If I could run for the NDP in any riding outside of Victoria and East Van, this would be it. The Liberals should focus their efforts in Surrey and Maple Ridge where there are true swing ridings to be won. This is a non-starter.
NDP 50, Libs 35, Green 10, Other 5
10 03 05 Scott G.
The Liberals will put a lot of resources into re-electing Joyce Murray. Like Shirley Bond, she's one of the few high-profile women and one of the few high-profile moderates in cabinet who are running again.
By picking councillor Chuck Puchmayr over Steve McClurg, who came extremely close to defeating a veteran Reform / Alliance / Tory MP in last June's federal election, the NDP lost the benefit of McClurg's recent experience and name recognition. Puchmayr has also been criticized for not supporting his own union strongly enough in a dispute with Labatt's; this may have a positive effect or no effect at all with the general public, but it may cost him the active support of NDP / labour union loyalists.
Green candidate Robert Broughton ran in the last provincial election, and so can build on the experience and publicity from that campaign to mount a challenge strong enough to split the vote and re-elect Murray.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
Although traditionally an NDP riding, the NDP only lost by 8% in 2001 and that was with the Reform Party existing on the right while the absence of the Green Party on the left. I still think the NDP will pull this off, but if the liberals can increase their lead this riding will come into play. Right now I would focus more on the Burnaby ridings and Coquitlam Maqllardville for the liberals, but if they can maintain their current lead than those ridings should be safe and they can turn to ridings like New Westminster and Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
Cabinet Minister Joyce Murray has a fight on her hands with the opposition blaming her for closing the out-dated St. Mary's Hospital (blaming nuns obviously isn't kosher). She will need a strong third party showing from the Greens to make her second term a reality.
25 02 05 initials
Almost too close to call yet again. This one will depend heavily on the Green candidate. You have an NDP riding, a BC Liberal candidate who had high visibility in the cabinet, and an unknown Green. This riding is left, absolutely. Figure that Murray will probably get 43-44% of the vote, and that Dem Reform will get the usual 3%. That leaves 53-54% of the vote to divvy up between the greens and the NDP. If the greens hit 15% of the vote, the NDP loses. If not, the NDP wins. Way too close to call.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
Long time NDP stronghold will return to the fold on election night

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