Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:14 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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Raj Chouhan
Green Party
Suzanne Deveau
BC Liberal
Patty Sahota

BC Liberals:
SAHOTA, Hon. Patty
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:5.84%
Area (km2):28
Pop Density:1782.14

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North
New Westminster
Richmond East

16 05 05 Krispy
Patty Sahota has been invisible in this riding since being elected. You can't even walk into her constituency office and talk to someone without a pre-arranged appointment. Campbell's last-minute appointment as a minister-of-state for resort development (I take it this means BC Parks) is a sign that the BC Liberals know she is vulnerable.
Fred Randall provided excellent service to constituents while MLA, and Sahota has not followed his lead. As a relatively low-income community, Sahota will suffer for her silence as her government cut funding for health care, social services, child care, women's services, welfare, legal aid and social housing. Raj Chouhan will be Burnaby-Edmonds' next MLA.
Date 14 05 05 M. Lunn
Even though I am not 100% sure of this, I think the liberals have a slight edge since they only lost by four points in 1996 and are now doing better in the Lower Mainland. Also Patty Sahota is certainly winning the sign war, however that can be meaningless. I guess liberals by two points.
Date 11 05 05 SFU Grad
I don't normally comment on ridings other than Burquitlam (where I reside), but i frequently visit the adjacent Burnaby-Edmonds (and New-West) ridings. I drive from my riding yesterday to visit a friend who lives near Edmonds and Mary St. (just up from Kingsway. The route i travelled was up Cariboo St. (past the High School) and 16th Ave to Sixth St. which turns into Edmonds. I describe the route because the Edmonds portion of the riding (the area around Edmonds and Kingsway - Middlegate Mall which is now rebranded as Highgate)is a diverse area with a large number of low-rent/low-income apartment blocks and single family homes, which i would suspect leans NDP, whereas the Cariboo Hill/16th Ave section is somewhat more wealthy and middle-class and one would assume Liberal lending. Unlike my own riding and/or area which has very few lawn signs for either party on private property...I noticed throughout my drive a significant number of NDP lawn signs (on private property) and virtually no Liberal signs. This was true for the entire drive (even thru the Cariboo hill/16th Ave stretch). As i said in a previous submission (for Burquitlam) this may not be the most useful indicator of who will win, but i certainly got the sense that i was in an area friendly to the NDP.
Additionally my friend mentioned that Patty Sahota's campaign office (the Liberal candidate) has called their house frequently over the last week or so. The frequency of the calls could be a hint that they perceive her re-election bid is faltering. Since I don't live in the riding i'd rather not predict a winner, but i thought comment on what i observed.
12 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is a traditionally NDP/Socalist riding, that the NDP preformed relativly well in last time, at least compared to some of their other ridings. Saying that two or three wins of the past 10 makes this a swing riding is not right, 4 of 10 perhaps, 3 no. This should be an easy win.
08 05 05 BLJ
Past history notwithstanding, based upon the candidates only, I sense that Patty Sihota will likely be the only Liberal re-elected in Burnaby on election night.
SUB-Date 09 05 05
24 04 05 Bob
In addition to this riding being a traditional BC NDP strong hold, canvassing the area has shown strong support for the BC NDP.
31 03 05 BLJ
After some further analysis, I'm going to have to change my earlier prediction to too close to call.
Unlike Burnaby North, which has been held by the NDP from 1975 to 2001, this riding was a Socred gain during both the 1975 and 1983 elections.
During the '75, '83, and '86 elections, the winner in all three Burnaby seats had a margin of between 2% - 3%.
It will all probably come down to what the incumbancy factor is worth, what effect the Greens will have, and which party has the momentum going into the final stretch of the campaign.
30 03 05 PJ
Looking at the historical trends, to call this a swing riding is inaccurate.
It is true that the riding went Socred in '86, but people forget that that election was a Socred landslide. In fact, Bill Vander Zalm & Co. got more votes in '86 (954,516) than did Gordon Campbell & Co. in 2001 (916,888).
Burnaby-Edmonds went NDP in '96, '91, '83, '79, '72 '69, '66, and so on. In fact, it was a CCF stronghold going back to 1933. An NDP loss would be bucking the trend indeed.
Even if it is close, what appears to be an organizational edge for Raj Chouhan over Patty Sahota will make this an undoubted NDP lock.
01 04 05
Based on stats, and candidates, this is probably at least the one seat in Burnaby the BC Liberals can/will keep.
Date 27 02 05 Adam K
Patty has been a good MLA and now that she is a cabinet minister I think she has enough momentum to win. It will be a close battle but she will come out on top!
27 02 05 Full
This of all the Burnaby ridings will be the closest on election day, but given current levels of support for the NDP and given its past results over the years, I'll call this one for the Dippers, as they will be definitely targeting all 3 Burnaby ridings!
02 03 05 M. Lunn
Actually, this is a swing riding, not a traditional NDP riding. The Social Credit won this riding in 1986, so this riding will likely go to whoever wins the next election. At this point, that would be the BC Liberals so unless the NDP sees a major re-bound in the polls, the liberals will hold this one.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
Patty Sahota being added as a junior cabinet minister might help her cause. The raised profile is probably the best thing she has going for her in this longtime NDP riding (pre-2001). Additionally, her addition to cabinet may provide some of the elders Indo-Canadian with a bit more incentive (but not too much) to vote BC Liberal elsewhere.
24 02 05 BLJ
With the NDP returning to their normal levels of support provincially, this seat, which has been held by the NDP for well over 30 years (prior to 2001), will again likely return an NDP member.

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