Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:15 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Pauline Farrell
Democratic Reform BC
Tony Kuo
BC Liberal
John Nuraney
Tom Tao
John Warrens
Gabriel Wing-On Yiu

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:2.77%
Area (km2):15
Pop Density:3230.00

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North

15 05 05
There are enough conservative voters to go around here. Tony Kuo will probably take let's say 2-3% from the Liberal incumbant, but it is not enough to let the NDP sneak in. John Nurraney is a respected MLA and he is not going to let Gabriel Yiu, obvious loser of the Chinese debate, fairchild and Vancouver Sun reject, and poor speaker to win over him. It's shameful.
14 05 05 M. Lunn
With the current polls being very similar to what they were for the Social Credit vs. NDP in the 80s, I believe the liberals will take this since this is a bellwether riding and the liberals are headed for a second term. Also Gabriel Yiu is a parachute candidate while John Nuarney is well respected amongst his constituents, so that should by a 5% bonus for him, which will help put him over the top.
14 05 05 A Chinese Voter
Yiu is not exactly a "respected" journalist, given that he was fired by the Fairchild radio and his column was "canned" by the Vancouver Sun.
Not to mention that his verbal skills in English and Mandarin is extremely weak.
Kuo will spilt a lot of the Taiwanese vote in the riding. The Liberals may come up in the middle with Kuo and Yiu spliting the vote.
12 05 05 Nick Boragina
Burnaby has always preformed well for the NDP, and with a DRBC candidate here stealing votes from the BC Liberals, I cant see Nuraney being able to beat NDP candidate Gabriel Wing-On Yiu.
12 05 05 James
Yiu will not be able to unseat Nuraney. And here is why:
1. Yiu does not live any where close to this riding; I lived in bby south and based on my observation, he isn't a social-activist in the region. I only hear his name as a NDP candidate when the election preparation begins a few months ago. In fact, I am very very surprise that he gets the nod for the NDP candidancy over other more qualified applicants.
2. Yiu is NOT an active commentator in the Chinese media in the last few years. He is not on either of the Chinese radio station. In general, the Chinese community don't recognize him nearly as well as MLA Jenny Kwan. So the Chinese votes wouldn't help him much here, simply based on the fact that Chinese in the region don't know him too well at all.
My prediction this riding goes to the Liberal.
09 05 05 ghoris
In a close race, that 5 percent might be enough, but even the Liberal supporters here acknowledge Nuraney's a lightweight so 5 percent is probably a stretch. He could pull it off, but I'd say it's way too close to call. If the NDP keeps trending upwards and the Liberals start looking desperate I'd be prepared to put it in the NDP column (the Tyee already has).
06 05 05 MEW
In Burnaby Willingdon Tony Kuo will steal more votes from John Nuraney who has been a weak backbencher than the Green's will take from the NDP. Gabriel Yiu is running a strong campaign and should return this seat to the NDP.
01 05 05
Nuraney is probably the most likeable MLA in Burnaby in the moment. Coupled with the fact that he is an actual ideological moderate liberal that hasn't stepped on any toes, he remains a fairly strong contender. Yiu is a decent candidate, but I don't see him beating Nuraney. This riding is the most likely in Burnaby to stay liberal.
26 04 05 Bby-Will
Nuraney has a lead being incumbent - from emails with him as my MLS, I find him dedicated and interested in this riding, but Nuraney is a bit of a lightweight in the legislature. He seems to opt for toeing the Campbell line. I think these two factors will pretty well balance each other out.
Yiu is less known in the riding - he seems to be genuinely interested in this riding, but the "unknown" factor will weigh against him unless he can up his profile. I notice that Yiu's campaign is ramping up their street signs and mailings. Nuraney just has signs so far. Unless something changes - the riding will go with Nuraney.
05 04 05 Interested Voter
People recognize that John Nuraney is a hard worker and fought to save Burnaby Hospital and Maywood community school. He's got the most high profile campaign office, and it appears to be humming along with activity.
30 03 05 PJ
Since 1972, this riding has failed to go with the winner once: 1979, the NDP's high point in terms of popular vote and the only time it supassed the 45% mark (45.99%).
With that in mind, unless both major parties can reach into the high forties in popular vote Burnaby-Willingdon will go with the province-wide winner.
With the BC Liberals currently ahead in the polls, it's looking right now like it will stay in their column.
31 03 05 BLJ
Historically of the three Burnaby seats, the centre-right (Socreds/Liberals) have achieved their best results in this riding. A Socred seat in '75, '83, and '86 and the best Liberal result in 2001.
With very close races in 1975, 1983, 1979, and 1986, the outcome of this seat will likely be determined by the effect of the incumbancy factor, the effect of the Greens, the effect of DR BC, and which party has the big mo heading into election day.
21 03 05 M. Lunn
Based on the two most recent polls showing the liberals in the lead and their lead being strongest in the Lower Mainland, they would probably win this riding were in election held today. If the next few polls show the liberals continuing to maintain their current lead, I will mark this one for the liberals. If the NDP wishes to win this one, they need a major liberal meltdown. Even though they won it in 1996, the liberals are polling higher than in 1996 and support is strongest in the Lower Mainland whereas in 1996 support inside and outside the Lower Mainland was roughly equal.
10 03 05 Scott G.
An obscure Liberal MLA (Nuraney), a respected journalist running for the NDP (Yiu), and a third candidate who's become well known for his attempts to take over both local NDP and Liberal constituency associations through mass membership signups, then breaking into tears when he didn't get his way (Kuo).
Kuo's strongarm tactics and public appeals for sympathy, taken in combination, have all but destroyed his credibility, so his effect on the race will be minimal. Also, the idea of ethnic bloc voting is overstated, so the talk of Kuo splitting the "Chinese" or "Asian" vote is questionable. Finally, Kuo isn't particularly left-wing, so the few votes he does get are as likely to come from Liberal supporters as from NDP supporters.
10 03 05 MS
This riding looks like it is becoming less and less of a swing riding. John Nuraney will win this riding. As the incumbent he has at least some profile in the riding. His challenger Gaby Yiu who lives nowhere near the riding and has little to no profile, even in the Chinese community.
Nuraney's team seems to be very well organized as they already have their office up and running two months in advance.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Consummate middle class middle of the road riding. But it leans to the NDP, I'm going to predict they will win even though it's not going to massively go in their column. I've heard some people draw parallels to the 1979 election and the NDP won the riding then, while loosing the province. Nonetheless all three Burnaby seats are targets and this one is even less of a bell weather than Burnaby Edmonds. John Nuraney has almost no profile as an individual in the riding. This means his profile will be largely dependent on his status as a BC Liberal and member of Gordon Campbell's team, if the provincial Liberal campaign goes very well he'll get re-elected but that means the Liberals will have to win by 8-10 points overall, the current polling doesn't indicate this. This will be a negative when compared to Gabriel Yiu who has a high profile and will be able to say to the constituents "look I can defend your interests as an individual, I have spoken out as a commentator before."
Also people usually peg the Chinese community as in the Liberal camp, with Yiu as the NDP candidate any Liberal bonus from this will be negated. I’ve largely ignored Tony Kuo in this analysis because frankly his candidacy will be largely irrelevant expect him to get around 5% of the vote, and it will probably be a wash as to whom he draws more from. It's more reasonable to pick Yiu unless the NDP self-destructs and is down near 30% in late April early May. I think Yiu will get around 47, Nuraney 41 and the others will divide the balance.
27 02 05 Brent
With the nomination of Yiu for NDP, this will boost its chances in a riding also historically leaning to the Dippers. Couldn't agree more with the previous contributor on this one. Time to put it into the NDP column....
02 03 05 M. Lunn
This is a bellwether riding, not an NDP riding. The Social Credit won it in the 80s, so it will likely go to the winner of the election. In fact if I am not mistaken, I believe this riding has always gone with the winning party in the last 30 years. Since the liberals are leading in the polls, they will probably hold this one unless there is a major meltdown.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
[edited] The NDP cleared the path for Gabriel Yiu, to prevent charges of racism by fringe party candidate Tony "Who?" Kuo. The party activists have been disheartened that the democratic choice has been removed from the average member of the NDP. They could have chosen well prepared candidates Dave Myles (the 2001 candidate) and Tom Sigurdson (who had been working for a long time to prepare for the nomination vote), but instead there was just a crowning of Yiu as their candidate. All in an effort to avoid the bleeting cries of a sore loser whose nomination was blocked yet again by another real party. With Kuo in the way to split, with Yiu, the fraction of the East Asian vote that is racially driven, Nuraney should take this one by a clear margin.
04 03 05 TAN
Sitting tight on this one for the time being. Ordinarily, this would be solid NDP, but "Tony Nobody" Kuo's DRBC candidacy could throw a wrench in the works.
26 02 05 Tim Kennelly
Burnaby-Willingdon has been a longstanding NDP riding, only going Liberal in the 2001 disaster. Gabriel Yiu will take back this riding for the NDP. The Gabriel Yiu, who is a respected commentator in the chinese print and radio media, and his candidacy will play well with the 40% chinese population of the riding. Gabriel Yiu has consistently spoken out against Liberal cuts, and was the only commentator in the chinese media urging voters to vote for the NDP in 2001. In contrast, Liberal incumbent John Nuraney has been invisible, doing nothing to oppose Liberal cuts to services in Burnaby (closing the courthouse, closing long-term care beds, ect.).

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