Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:23 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:06 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Adrian Dix
Steven Mackenzie Lay
Green Party
Stuart Mackinnon
BC Liberal
Rob Nijjar
People's Front
Donna Petersen
The Sex
Yvonne Maylynne Tink

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:11.31%
Area (km2):9
Pop Density:5831.11

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

12 05 05 Raj Hundal
This riding has traditionally been an NDP stronghold. The Liberal landslide where every Tom, Dick, and Harry from the Liberal party that got elected in the previous provincial election will no longer hold true, especially in this riding. It is easily visible that there are more NDP signs than Liberal signs...but as many have already pointed out.....elections are not won or lost on signs alone. It is imperative that people come out and vote...and vote they will to get rid of the Liberals from Vancouver-Kingsway
07 05 05 A. Vancouverite
Unless there are no signs in a neighbourhood for a certain candidate, one can't draw too many conclusions. In any case I'd say Dix is winning the "sign war" along 41st avenue, and the rest of the riding. But as I said earlier, who cares, it's the lamest sign war ever. So to make the prediction one must look at the 96' results, maybe take away 5 points from the NDP and spread that around due to the Glen Clark factor, and then consider the history. It would take quite the surprising turn in fortunes for the Liberals to win this riding, the NDP campaign hasn't collapsed so it's just not logical to predict the Liberals will win, or that they even have a realistic shot. Yes nothing should be taken for granted, but we're making predictions here folks.
30 04 05 Miles Lunn
Actually there are quite a few liberal signs on 41st Avenue, although very few on the North side. Besides I have found signs are not the best indication since judging solely by signs it would look like Wally Oppal will get trounced in Vancouver-Fraserview when in fact he will probably win while Laura McDiarmid would win Vancouver-Hastings, which is next to impossible. Nevertheless, I would say that the liberals need to widen the lead to over 10 points before they have a realistic chance of holding this riding. Unfortunately with all the attention being focused on the federal scene, I don't think the polls are likely to change between now and the election. The only good thing about this, is at least the chance of an NDP victory has gone from low to almost zero.
23 04 05 Pundit
I'm not a supporter of Glen Clark cabinet ministers..... but unless the BC Liberals signs are on back-order in this riding, it would appear Dix has won the sign-battle at least.
Sad to say it, because I extremely dislike Dix and his Glen Clark old-school NDP ilk... but I think this one should go NDP easily.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
I doubt enough people, to make it matter, will remember Adrian Dix's past as a Clark strategist to effect this traditional NDP riding that's solidly on the East Side. In fact his experience as a 'backroom boy' will probably balance out any negative association with Clark. Perhaps the Liberals will have a point or two (literally only a point or two) extra because the incumbent is of East Indian decent in a multi-cultural riding, running against a white candidate. I doubt it will count for much though since this riding is more about class politics than (ethnic) identity politics, this means ones skin colour doesn't count nearly as much as affiliation. This riding has a large working class and middle/middle class population that tends to favour the NDP. I think Dix will win by at least 10 to 15 points -- a traditional level of NDP support.
01 03 05 Scott G.
Yes, Dix is probably a better candidate than Barsallo, who in 2001 lost the seat Glen Clark held for 15 years. Barsallo is a strong activist but without much appeal outside the left-wing activist community. However, Dix's success may depend on how people remember him. Are they ready to elect one of Clark's chief strategists?
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Considering the history of this riding, the NDP will likely win it back although by a smaller margin than in 1996 since they don't have the leader running in this riding. I am predicting the liberals will get around 40% and the NDP around 50%. The NDP was wise to chose Adrian Dix over Alicia Barisillo, who is a communists and her extreme left wing views might have hurt the NDP here.
24 02 05 BLJ
Vancouver Kingsway and its various incarnations has been held by the NDP for around 40 years, with the exception of the 2001 anomoly. With provincial NDP support levels approaching 40%, I do not see a Liberal hold.
25 02 05 DL
This is a typical example of a previously super-safe NDP that went BC Liberal in 2001 in that once in a millennium landslide. It seems clear that province-wide the NDP will go from being 35% behind the Liberals in 2001 to more or less tied in the province-wide popular vote. A swing of that magnitude will easily put a seat like this back in the NDP column.

Submit Information here
Return to - regional Index
Return to - 2005 British Columbia Prediction

© 1999-2005 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com