vmp-Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:03 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:35 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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BC Liberal
Juliet Andalis

Marijuana
Christopher Patrick Bennett

Green Party
Raven Bowen

Independent
Mike Hansen

NDP
Jenny Kwan

Communist of BC
Peter Marcus

The Platinum
Kirk Anton Moses

Democratic Reform BC
Imtiaz Popat

Work Less
Niki Westman

Incumbent:

NDP:
KWAN, Jenny Wai Ching

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 51960

Dev. from Quota: 10.21%

Area (km2): 13

Pop Density: 3996.92

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

33.18%

44.48%

16.22%

1.03%

1996 Result (redistributed):

63.11%

25.48%

1.97%

3.38%

3.97%

Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Burrard
Vancouver-Fairview
Vancouver-Hastings
Vancouver-Kensington
Vancouver-Kingsway


	04 05 05	MGB
I don't think that the fact that 1/2 was through a 28 day campaign Shane has fewer signs on Victoria Drive than Libby had at the end of a 35 day campaign is particularly telling, especially given that none of the other candidates have signs in front of residences on that street. I'm not seeing many McDiarmid signs off the main drags and even fewer Gregson signs (although he does seem to have the telephone pole vote sewn up). McDiarmid hasn't been heard from since she lost her Park Board seat and was never well known in this part of town. Looks to me that Simpson has the edge here.
	02 05 05
Julia Anstalis is a strong candidate, but that really doesn't matter since this is the safest NDP riding in the province. She also may have ran in this riding since she wanted to gain some experience in being candidate but didn't want to necessarily be an MLA. Harvey Grigg who ran in Vancouver East deliberately chose that riding for the Conservatives, so he could run federally without winning since Vancouver East never has and likely never will go Conservative.
	01 05 05
Opponents will be lucky if Kwan doesn't beat the second place candidate by more than thirty percent of the vote. This is the NDP's safest seat in the province, it's equivalent for the liberals being Vancouver-Quilchena.
	01 05 05	A. Vancouverite
Umm why is anyone predicting anything other than an NDP victory here? The Liberals and Greens picked decent candidates, but clearly Jenny Kwan has a far bigger profile than both Women combined. Furthermore the Liberal candidate's late start will only hurt her even more than the fact that she's simply a BC Liberal in Vancouver Mount Pleasant -- one of the most NDP friendly places in the country! Besides Ms.Andalis will have a difficult time defending Liberal policy here. Considering Libby Davies massive victory in the 2004 federal election, and the fact that she probably got an ever bigger margin of victory in Mt.Pleasant than in Hastings, one ought to pick this riding to stay with the NDP. Not to mention the fact that the federal Liberal candidate was a former New Democrat, thus a left leaning Liberal. Considering the changed poll results and the NDP's return to a traditional 40%, from a low of 22% in 2001, one should pick this for the NDP. And considering that they didn't loose this in the 2001 Liberal wave....well draw the conclusion. This riding will be going NDP, and it won't be close
	30 04 05	politics101
While the Liberals might have a Phillipino nurse as their candidate they have no real riding association and are being loaned a couple of workers from the Liberal office to manned there sparse office on E Broadway - i worked on the last three campaigns for the Liberals in this riding and no one has contacted me about volunteering for the Liberals
	30 04 05	Jay
With only two candidates winning, Jenny Kwan will probably win this riding but with the ease she might expect. Last election, Liberal candidate Gail Sparrow managed to garner about 33% of the vote. With no Liberal canadiate running in this riding, usual Liberal votes mixed with usual Green votes can give Jenny Kwan a run for her seat with Raven Bowen laughing.
	25 04 05	Leung Kwok-hung
Woman of colour? So what? I didn't know this was the U.S. South and that such a thing was the end of the world... About the only way the Greens could take this leftist bastion from Ms. Kwan is by convincing federal NDP leader Jack Layton to jump to the B.C. Greens and run provincially....And y'all know that the Liberals are more likely to lose in the Lower Mainland than for that to happen. Editor’s Note: Kwan also sound pretty coloured to me!
	25 04 05	Bart
Interesting developments are afoot in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. BC's poorest set of postal codes, long taken for granted by the NDP, are getting a dynamic Asian female BC Liberal candidate. Juliet Andalis is opposing the positively daft NDP incumbent Jenny Kwan. A smart, aggressive campaign in that riding could provide a challenge. My sense is that many V-MP residents, especially the bourgeoning Broadway area with its young families, might be getting tired of being in an opposition riding. Look for a possible surprise outcome here on election day.
	22 04 05	JC
Acutally the Libs did nominate a candidate so that theory is dispelled, Kwan will win in a landslide.
	20 04 05	Kirk
Perhaps the Liberals are playing it another way. If the Liberals do NOT run a candidate, then the voters in Mount Pleasant have to choose between NDP and Green. Some of the Liberal voters will probably go Green rather than vote NDP. If this happens, this could turn into a real chance for Raven Bowen and the Green Party to elect a candidate. This might be a clever move if it is indeed intended. Anyone else have thoughts of this possibility?
	06 04 05
Have you lost your mind? If you seriously think the Green Party is going to win this riding you've got another thing coming, As one of only 2 NDP incumbents contesting this election, Jenny Kwan will decimate this race. If the BC Liberals couldn't knock off Jenny in the last election when the NDP was extremely unpopular, then there is just no way that anyone else but Jenny is going to win this.
	31 03 05	jamie lee
As of March 30, Raven Bowen, a young 32 year old woman of color has officially entered the race as a GREEN to capture Vancouver-Mt Pleasant. At her announcement at noon yesterday at the historic Lotus Hotel were 60 individuals. In attendance were notables such as the leader of the Green Party, Adriane Carr. Nominating Raven was popular elected Green School trustee, Andrea Reimer. Also present lending their support was Park Commissioner Suzanne Anton and former park commissioner Laura McDermiad. A number of high profile heads of organizations from the Downtown Eastside were present. A listing of those coming out in support of RAVEN will soon follow. Keep your eye on this inner city riding. It is expected to be an exciting race, one with Raven Bowen and Jenny Kwan working hard for their votes. Both of these women are extremely popular in the riding, especially around the Downtown Eastside. This riding will probably be a two way race betweeen the GREENS and NDP.
	02 04 05	Mike Mulroney
The NDP are not going to lose either of the ridings they held in 2001. It will be interesting to see if NDP landslide here is bigger than the Liberal landslide in West Vancouver-Capilano, but that's all the suspense that this race has to offer. There is no question that Jenny Kwan will win a majority of the vote in Mike Harcourt's old riding.
	28 03 05	M. Lunn
Even though Jenny Kwan will win by a landslide, the liberals will get more than 10%, probably around 25%. Even though the Conservatives got 10% last federal election, I should remind people the Conservatives got 36% in BC while the liberals are polling at 46%. In the Lower Mainland the Conservatives only got 34% and that includes the Fraser Valley where they racked up huge numbers, while the BC Liberals are polling at 51% in the Lower Mainland. Nevertheless, this will probably be the NDP's best riding and the BC Liberals worst. As much as I find Jenny Kwan annoying, her riding is probably the safest seat in the province for the NDP.
	24 03 05	Scott G.
Bob Cline shouldn't be so negative. This is a great opportunity for anyone who wants to be able to say they were a major political party's candidate for MLA, but doesn't want the risk that they might actually win.
	20 03 05	Bob Cline
Jenny Kwan 75% Green nobody 11% Bleeding, hobbling Liberal sacrifice 10% DRBC nobody 1% Marjuana 3% I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be the largest margin of victory of any election in BC's history. Jenny Kwan is going to thump the sorry virginal sacrifice of a human the libs find to run here into more little pieces than she gets votes.
	08 03 05	Nick Boragina
This is one of the two seats the NDP took last time. If they cant take it again, they have some serious problems. I therefore agree with every single other prediction (as of the time of writing this) the party vote in this traditional NDP area is strong enough to push this one way over the edge, NDP win with 50%+1 of the vote.
	25 02 05	Initial
This is a shoe in seat for the NDP, no question about it. They won here when their party was despised here and the Liberals were embraced. Now that the Liberal lead is much shorter, this is a cakewalk. Short of some major foot in the mouth or scandal from their candidate, this one's going NDP, and probably by a fair margin.
	23-Feb-05	M. Lunn
Probably the safest NDP seat in British Columbia. Jenny Kwan will be returned to Victoria with a healthy margin. This includes the Downtown Eastside which is very left wing.
	24-Feb-05	KH
The safest NDP seat in the province. They'll win this one big - the same as they always do in each election.
	21-Feb-05	Non Partisan Email:
Easy NDP Win, It's very unlikely the NDP will lose any seats in this election and Jenny Kwan won by 8 percentage points last time, but unlike last time the NDP are gaining in personal popularity.
	22-Feb-05	Interested Voter Email:
Jenny Kwan has significantly increased her exposure as part of the opposition of two. Doesn't appear to be any takers for the Liberal nomination and, as the saying goes, if the BC Libs didn't take it last time, it's unlikely they will this time.
	22-Feb-05	IGB Email:
NDP bastion + Jenny Kwan + rising NDP fortunes = an easy prediction. Jenny and the NDP with a huge win.

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