Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:22 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:39 PM 16/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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The Sex
Patrick Gallagher Clark
Green Party
Hamdy El-Rayes
BC Liberal
Virginia Greene
Gregor Robertson
Work Less
Malcolm Janet Mary van Delst
Scott Yee

1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:10.21%
Area (km2):10
Pop Density:5196.00

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Vancouver-Point Grey

12 05 05 chrisb
I live in this riding and think it will be tight. One thing I notice is that east of Oak, Gregor Robertson's signs outnumber Virginia Greene's about 25-1, and west of oak it is the reverse. The only thing with that is that there are 5 times as many voters (or thereabouts) east of Oak.
12 05 05 Cynic
Robertson by 5%. There are a good number of New Democrats here ... who will reliably vote NDP. There are lots of Federal Liberals here: they seem split about 50-50. There are VERY few Conservatives, who will vote 100% for their chosen one, Virginia Greene. The numbers are easy: NDP gain.
Virginia Greene doesn't get it. No one orders farmed salmon in a restaurant (ask Conservative-owned Earl's). They CHOOSE to order wild salmon. Her campaign is run by the salmon farming industry's former chief lobbyist. And he makes great choices ... ran off to the beer industry just when beer sales started going down hill. Coincidence? He'll be three for three: farmed salmon, beer, and now his Conservative candidate.
12 05 05 Nick Boragina
two words - spit voting.
the NDP and Greens split the vote here last time, even though they'd have lost. Looking back to 1996, you see that the redistributed results say that even a PDA+NDP candidate would have lost to the BC Liberal. That's just how it goes in ridings like this, and with a strong green party, and no sign of Unity or Reform, we are seeing things rebalance in favour of the Liberals. They will win here, and in many other places.
07 05 05 RH
The NDP has a definite "star candidate" in Gregor Robertson - a successful and photogenic "green" business success story. The Green Party must be envious. However, this is a relatively affluent westside riding that has traditionally gone Liberal. With a fresh face for the Liberals and a strong female candidate, that is unlikely to change. Though I'd personally like to see Mr. Robertson take it, I don't think disillusionment with the Liberals in this riding will be sufficient to put him over the edge.
07 05 05 A. Vancouverite
Where were you hanging out Mike? In Shaugnessy? Heck there are even NDP signs in Shaughnessy, an area where Greene will need to extremely well to be able to win this riding. If you want to talk about signs I've seen a total of five (diffrent properties) for Greene north of King Edward compared to about thirty for Robertson. But who cares about signs if there are so few. The signage in Vancouver seems to be in a permanent vegetative state. Population wise more people north of King Edward Avenue, there are more signs there (that you seem to find so important and they're basically all for Robertson btw), so clearly I'd give him the advantage if I was to use your "logic".
02 05 05 Mike Mulroney
An individual’s evaluation of “optics” is little more than that one person’s perspective or bias in disguise. What I see in this race are two very strong candidates; both as progressive and successful entrepreneurs. While Robertson is younger, Greene has a vibrant image, way more experience, and an outstanding volunteer record. As such a strong, successful businesswoman and as the past chair of the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation, she will undoubtedly have an advantage among female voters in this urban riding. Personally, I might say that the “optics” favors Greene, but frankly my personal, subjective, biased opinion isn’t necessarily shared among residents, and my optics evaluation is therefore useless.
It’s difficult to evaluate how this riding leans because Gary Collins is the only MLA who has represented it, as he did the old “Little Mountain” riding for five years. Collins was personally popular as a high-profile moderate in the centre-right party, but Greene is also a strong, successful, and moderate candidate who is well suited to this urban riding and may do equally well or better. What I know is that the polls favor the Liberals strongly in the mainland, that this riding was reasonably secure for the liberals in the past, and that when I drove through the riding on a recent trip to Vancouver, I spotted at least fifteen Greene signs, but not a single Robertson sign. Speaking objectively: THAT’s bad optics!
the BC Libs may very well be feel the electoral effects of a spreading "donategate" scandal...that's if the mainstream does it's job properly and gives this issue the attention it definitely would if it was the NDP in this situation...as for this riding, Greene is a great candidate and should take this riding if the BC Libs maintain or increase their lead in the polls...on the other hand, Robertson is a great candidate also and if the NDP can narrow that lead, Robertson could quite easily take this riding from the BC Libs...if I had to predict a winner TODAY I would predict Greene by a whisker...
30 04 05 Miles Lunn
Local candidates certainly can have a small impact, especially if they are likely to gain a cabinet post. But considering the NDP has virtually no chance of winning the election, that possibility is eliminated and with the Liberals having a 15 point lead in the Lower Mainland and 10 point lead in Vancouver and Inner Suburbs (In 1996 and 2001, this was around the average of those areas), it will be an uphill battle for the NDP to win this. From driving through this riding, the NDP are strong east of Cambie, which tends to vote more in line with East Vancouver while the Liberals will likely get over 60% possibly 70% in the Shaughnessy portion making it very difficult for the NDP to overcome that.
25 04 05 A. Vancouverite
Amy J and others whatever you personally think of Greene as a person or candidate, is irrelevant in the sense of appealing to undecided voters -- the optics battle. The point is that the optics are favourable to Robertson it's not that Greene is a particularly bad candidate but she definitely does not have the type of favourable optics to compete with Robertson. She can improve her optics, but that takes time. And the quicker the election campaign goes, the more difficulty she will have. The optics for Robertson are that he's a Businessman with a "social consciousness" and environmentalist -- so he can balance the economy (attract normally Liberal leaning supporters) with social programmes (attract normally NDP leaning supporters) with environmental concerns (attract normally Green leaning supporters).
That along with the fact that most of the Liberal support in the Lower Mainland is far more concentrated than NDP support will give the NDP a surprisingly good shot at winning. That being said within the first week or so people haven't been paying much attention -- and of course if they haven't been paying attention favourable optics on Robertson's side won't help him as much as it would should they have been paying attention. If remax continues to win the sign war who knows what will happen.
As for Gary Collins winning big, in 2001 yes -- he did. But didn't every Liberal? The percentages where pretty much equal to the provincial average -- the NDP and Liberals were slightly below and the Greens where about 10 points above their average. The Greens in this riding have not nominated a candidate as of April 25th, or at the least they haven't told us about it. With Robertson having the Green candidate from 2001 on his side that will give him a bonus compared to Greene. Also Collins who moved from being an MLA for Ft.Langely in 96' with a relatively high profile as an important Liberal member did beat an optics wise, unknown candidate for the NDP in 96' so clearly optics do matter. I’m unlikely to call this for the NDP because of the fact that the NDP is trailing, nonethless I wouldn't be suprised to see them win this riding even if they end up in opposition simply because of their candidate.
24 04 05 Initial
This west-side riding will go Victoria Greene for sure. If I am correct, it was won by Gary Collins last election easily, and again, will be Liberal territory without doubt.
23 04 05 New Resident
I stopped by Virginia Greene's campaign office the other day to see what they were about... and man are they running a professional operation. I've worked on a few campaigns for a number of different candidates and parties, but it seems like they have one of the best teams I've seen. They are a diverse group of individuals, which is really nice to see also. (Old white politicos do not make the best campaign team)...
I'll probably stop by Gregor's office sometime this week and get a feel for what they are about. But the impression that Virginia's office made on me will be hard to top.
Also, for those who say that age plays as a factor in this one, I simply think you are wrong. I am a "young urban professional" and Virginia Greene's diversity of experience and focus on key BC industries such as Tourism and Marketing appeals to me far more than Robertson's age and bicycle-riding.
Should be a good race.
21 04 05 yalie
M Lunn, most of the polls for Lower Mainland include the Fraser Valley bible belt. A Globe and Mail poll showed the Libs to be narrowly leading in the GVRD, 44-40. Obviously this means major gains for the GVRD (which isn't difficult), and given Van proper's generally left-liberal political culture, the NDP will probably win more seats in Van itself than the Libs.
Amy, how about trying to take a look at the riding reasonably objectively rather than just use this forum to support your candidate? Of course everyone has their biases but most at least try to come up with some sort of reason as why they predict the riding will go a certain way rather than just say, Candidate X is great, etc. The urban professional voters of this riding are mostly small-l liberal types which the Campbell Liberals clearly are not. They are not vulgar nouveau-riche/right-wing voters like in West Van. Robertson will also get a big chunk of the Green vote from last time. Narrow NDP victory.
Prediction: 45% NDP, 42% LIB, 11% GRN
21 04 05 Amy J
Who in the heck just called Virginia Greene an older lady?! You obviously never met her. If Gregor is young and smart and 40, then so is VG! She's exactly the same as Gregor (has run her own company, promoted the province, headed up many charities) only she's been Gregor for 20 years longer with a lot more to show for it. Bottling juice is one thing (didn't that California company do it first?) but creating, running and selling a successful marketing agency is quite another--especially when you're a woman. That's not to mention her work launching Vancouver for Expo '86, and her volunteerism with pracitcally every BC charity. I've worked for her, she is hands down the most down-to-earth, get the job done person I've ever met. She IS what the NDP would like to put forward in her opponent only she'll be in power and not in opposition when she gets elected. I envy people in this riding. They have a chance to witness a real dynamo in action. I urge you to hear her speak.
19 04 05 A. Vancouverite
It's sad that "the no place to raise kids" comment is being taken to mean something its not by more partisan posters. It seems like a desperate thing to latch on to. Since should it have actually been news we would've heard something about it in the mainstream or any media. Does it indicate Virginia Greene is in trouble? I wouldn't have assumed she's in trouble persay due to the closeness of this riding -- but perhaps she is. Besides I'd like to know what the context of said comment was.
Anyhow the latest polling according to Mustel indicates that the Liberals have held their lead. This Liberal lead will make it difficult for the Robertson. Nonetheless I think he could be one of the few candidates able to buck trends such as this. However considering the importance of the global campaign for both parties, I wouldn't feel comfortable making that prediction.
BTW if this post comes through before the other one I made a few weeks ago, or if the other one I made a few weeks ago doesn't come through, I'd like to point out that this riding includes the neighbourhood of Shuaghnessy. Shaugnessy is one of the richest neighbourhoods in the country. Therefore it stands to reason that it would skew the average incomes of the riding.
I ran the numbers of the most recent polls through the ubc election prediction forecaster with the assumption that the Liberals will hold 80% of their vote from 2001, loosing 20% to the NDP, and that 10% of the Green vote will go to the NDP and that 40% of the "other" vote will go to the NDP. I made these assumptions to get an overall result of 46.1% Liberal, 37.7% NDP, 11.2% Green and 5.0% for the other parties -- a reasonable overall result; however, I don't think the migrations will be quite like that but that's not overly important so long as the overall result is similar to the likely election outcome since the Greens or others are unlikely to win any seats. With these results in mind Vancouver-Fairview would've been ranked at 52nd for the Liberals percentage wise -- with results of 44% for the Liberals, 34.8% for the NDP, 19.4% for the Greens and 1.9% for others. Considering that the Green candidate from last time is supporting Robertson that should give him somewhat of a boost. And while I'd give the Liberals the advantage, I'd say it's still quite realistic to see a Robertson victory.
18 04 05 M. Lunn
After seeing the liberals have a reasonably large lead in the Lower Mainland, I cannot see the NDP winning this no matter how popular Gregor Robertson may be. He will help make it more competitive, but it won't be enough to win the riding. I am guessing high 40s for liberals and lower 40s for NDP.
16 04 05 Interested Voter
Gregor Robertson's quote that Vancouver Fairview is "no place to raise kids" is continuing to haunt him in this riding...especially since it has been chosen by so many as an ideal place to raise kids! People are saying 'love the juice, but you should stay on Cortez Island if you really don't like it here.'
07 04 05 M. Lunn
With the BC Liberals having a 14 point lead in the Lower Mainland they will likely win this one. Gregor Robertson's strong appeal will make it a bit more competitive than it would be otherwise, but unless the NDP can rebound in the polls to a neck-neck race, I don't think they will win this one. I'll put it as too close too call for now, but if the next set of polls show the Liberals in the lead again, then I will call this for the liberals.
06 04 05 BLJ
One must bear in mind that this riding, by household income, is the ninth highest in B.C. (third highest in Vancouver proper), which likely is beneficial to the Liberals.
29 03 05 Mike
no doubt about it, this one is gonna be a squeaker. if anything, i think people here are prepared to vote for the "new" NDP. the riding association made a good decision in giving gregor robertson the nomination. he's a strong, well-known and likeable person (i've never even heard of the liberal candidate). his history with happy planet will also do him well, showing people that social democracy and private enterprise can complement each other. politically, he's exactly where the NDP is going (centre left). who knows...could he be our next finance minister? okay, maybe not, but stay tuned...
28 03 05 Pundit
Greene is a Liberal running in a long time Liberal riding (Federally and Provincially the area has strong Liberal ties and 2004 went Liberal Federally) - Gregor is not going to be able to convince the voters that he is a Liberal and get the win.
28 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Mike you piss on my rug and I piss on yours what a team we make huh? :) BTW this is the riding that I live in. In any case the two candidates are above average (although I would say that Robertson has an advantage more on that later). Not to say that provincial trends won't matter and in that sense the Liberals have an advantage, assuming (a big if since the NDP campaign hasn't started yet with adds, spinning and a platform compared to the Liberals of course -- whereas the NDP have a slight advantage in the local campaign department now) things hold for them and the NDP campaign is completely ineffective they will win. But that's a huge assumption that I'm not willing to make until the campaign is well underway.
Furthermore the federal NDP did surprisingly well in Vancouver-Centre and almost won Vancouver-Kingsway. Those two ridings make up part of the provincial riding of Vancouver-Fairview. The Conservatives did very poorly in both. They did a bit better in the Quadra portion of the riding, but even there they where crushed by the federal Liberals. Since Vancouverites who vote Conservative are almost guaranteed to vote BC Liberal and federal NDP supporters are also almost guaranteed to vote NDP provincially the battle will be for federal Liberal and Green voters.
One important thing to consider when comparing the two candidates and considering the riding is age. Robertson is 40 and this is a young riding, a lot of urban professionals and Yuppies. Greene is an older lady and will have trouble with the comparison and connecting to that demographic, and no they aren't all non-voters. Robertson is a young professional that can appeal to those folks. It will be interesting to see what happens and there are so many factors in play that's why I think this is one of those ridings that can't be predicted unless something massive happens. Of course the point is to predict but this one is way too close to call so that's my prediction, until closer to the election date.
27 03 05 New Resident
Depending on who has the better team on the ground, this one should go to Virginia Greene by 4-6 points. Her experience in administration and business and her presence as a strong female candidate will be well-promoted by the central BC Liberal campaign to be sure.
This will be one to watch, as it will be a good fight. But selling overpriced juice just doesnt qualify you to run the province - something that the voters in this riding will come around to.
Besides, I enjoy Robertson's juice from time to time(when I can afford it) and want him to stay out of government and continue making the stuff.
24 03 05 yalie
Gregor Robertson is a perfect fit for this riding of small-l liberal urban professional types. This is the first election in which the BC Liberals are perceived as a conservative political party. Up until 2001, most people perceived them as comparable to the federal Liberals (which are the closet ideologically to the voters of this riding). Urban professional types tend to reject right-wing parties, and now it's pretty clear the Campbell Liberals are closer to Stephen Harper, Mike Harris and Ralph Klein than to Jean Chretien or Paul Martin. The fact that the federal Liberals don't want to be associated with the Campbell types will harm the party in Vancouver, which is generally a small-l liberal city.
23 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Gregor Robertson is a strong NDP Candidate; he actually has public sector experience! However, the BC Liberals also have a strong candidate in Virginia Greene, whose extensive and diverse resume is very impressive; she is well known for her work in the public, private, and volunteer sectors. While Robertson’s work may be better known province wide, Greene’s has had a big impact in and around her constituency. A big question here is how much of a factor Gary Collins’ personal popularity was in his electoral success. Because the BC Liberals are far ahead of the NDP in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver, and becuase they are running such a strong candidate in Fairview, I would give the edge to Virginia Greene.
25 02 05 A. Vancouverite
This should be a close riding. The NDP have won this riding before, and Gary Collins did switch from Langley to Vancouver in 96' giving the Liberals a boost. Gregor Robertson is a very strong candidate, above average for the NDP in this riding and that will give them a boost, and Virginia Greene is a good candidate too but not nearly as strong as Robertson. This could come down to who has the better ground team -- and provincial trends. To be fair one should wait until far closer to the election call to make a prediction on this riding.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
Robertson is the new face the NDP wants to project - an environmentally conscious successful small businessman (who charges people a ridiculous amount for a container of fruit juice). In a high-profile contest that couldn't have been better cast or scripted from the NDP's point of view, he beat retired national union leader Judy Darcy for the nomination. The nomination race also highlighted the presence of former Green Party officials in the NDP - Vanessa Violini, who nominated Robertson, and Karen Etheridge, who nominated Darcy.
With veteran Gary Collins gone, the Liberals have recruited their own star candidate, Virginia Greene, from the tourism industry. While this will help the Liberals, another factor is that this was an NDP riding until 1996, when Collins switched from a suburban riding to run here.
24-Feb-05 KH
This one will be close - but I don't think voters in Fairview are ready to return to the NDP. The Liberals should grab it by a few percentage points on election day.

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