Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:22 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:39 PM 16/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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People's Front
Charles Boylan
David Chudnovsky
John Patrick Gordon
Green Party
Cody Matheson
BC Liberal
Patrick Wong

BC Liberals:
WONG, Hon. Patrick
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:9.43%
Area (km2):9
Pop Density:5732.22

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

12 05 05 Nick Boragina
There has been too many changes in this riding to say that it will go NDP because it's always gone NDP. Not only has BC changed, not only has Vancouvre changed, not only has the NDP changed, but the BC Liberals have changed. Despite all of that, it's local candidate popularity that will help out here.
One thing I keep hearing people say here, is "socially progressive". My guess is these are younger folk, 30 at the oldest. Why? Because BC's politics have never been about social issues, BC has always been, and will probably always be, a province that votes for it's parties based on the economy. Since the first parties in 1903, the Socialists, later CCF, and now NDP have held the socialist banner, while an amalgom of parties and people, under such names as "Social Credit" and "BC Liberals" have held the banner for the Free Market forces. BCers have always tilted to the Free Market, and Socalist parties only win when there's a reason, like a split vote.
That being said, this has become a free market riding, and while a simple party vote would be very close, Mr.Wong's popularity should push this over the edge. BCL win.
11 05 05
If anyone watched the debate (it was televised on Chinese channel) with Patrick Wong versus Gabriel Yiu and a green party no name, most people would agree that Patrick Wong absolutely slammed Gabriel shut. Yiu, who obviously could not defend himself from the yelling and booing of the audience, resorted to telling the audience that if they booed one more time, he would leave the debate. Also, a few audience members were chosen to speak to the candidates, and all of them were against the NDP. Speaker after speaker they came, demanding answers from the obviously sore Gabriel Yiu. Watched by many undecided voters, Patrick Wong was seen the winner and therefore, this riding, full of Chinese, will belong to Mr. Wong.
07 05 05 A. Vancouverite
"Considering that this riding is full of Chinese people", that's quaint, yet a bit bizarre, simplistic and dumb. It‘s like those Surrey predictions were people say “there’s been a lot of Growth = Liberal win”. Uhh no, folks you should consider reality and local dynamics. If the Liberals were running a strong candidate of Chinese decent they'd have a better shot, but in all reality the only time Wong raised his profile in the community was when he spoke out against the drug treatment facility at 41st and Fraser, when he felt that it would be a good political manoeuvre considering the outpouring of opposition from those who turned out to those meetings. Other than that he was as silent as can be. And in all honesty most people aren’t impressed by ministers of state..seriously if they aren’t with the big boys and girls who cares? Only the most partisan of folks would think such things are somehow able to resonate with the wider (usually non-partisan) community.
Chudnovsky was smart to include Chinese and Punjabi characters on his signs, as it indicates a willingness to reach out to both communities, unlike Wong oddly enough. In any case this would be like the Point Grey of the east side, electoraly, oh sure it's possible for the Liberals to win...but don't count on it. Also making Liberal predictions based upon signage is a bit strange, as there are vast parts of the neighbourhood were there are only NDP signs. But as I've said before...who cares? There aren't too many parts of the city where signage is very impressive for either side. So I suspect turnout will hit a record low, but it‘s usually the incumbent who is hurt by this sort of thing. In any case Chudnovsky will win.
05 05 05 N. C.
While making an assessment of the possible outcomes of this riding one must take into consideration the large number of low and middle income people who live in this riding. Most felt the extremely negative repercussions of the Liberal administration in the last four years.
In 2001 many of us in this riding were extremely dissatisfied with the Ujall Dosanjh and the BC NDP for so many reasons.... The administration was getting tired, old and increasingly distant from the electorate. The time for change was at hand. Many traditional NDP voters such as myself, felt particularly dissatisfied with the current state of Dosanjh's government and felt he was an extremely undesirable candidate.
The Green candidate, Betty Krawczyk ran an extremely well organised and ambitious campaign. She was an incredibly interesting, inspirational, and knowledgeable person who appealed to so many disenchanted NDP voters. I knew many other people in the riding who were swayed to vote Green in this race - we did not want the NDP or the Liberals in power so we chose what we felt was a palatable alternative.
Now in 2005 things are a bit different. A lot of us hate the Liberals and have come to fully realise the benefits of having a socially progressive government in power. The "new" NDP has really gained a lot of ground and respect over the last four years and I think that many of the 2001 Green voters in this riding will come back to the fold.
I have found Patrick Wong to be an extremely unresponsive and absent MLA with virtually no presence in the riding. Every time I went into his office for an inquiry he was at a "business meeting" in West Vancouver. Apparently that's where he lives. He seems to be another seat-warmer for the BC Liberals - just another one of Campbell's yes men with no real qualities that make him rise above the rest. He's just another cardboard cutout MLA.
Now, David Chudnovsky on the other hand is an extremely articulate, educated and influential individual who fully realises the value of grassroots support from every sector of Vancouver Kensington. He demonstrates very real qualities of leadership and give voters the opportunity to be heard.
04 05 05 David
I would have handed this riding to the NDP had they not nominated a white raging lefty. Strategic snafu on their part nominating Chudnovsky.
02 05 05 MisterK
Election sign counts indeed can be indicative of a riding-- if they're not done by a simple drive down a major corridor or two. Also, looking at past poll-by-poll results really helps in the analysis as well.
Examining Kensington, Chudnovksy (NDP) support is based in the west-central and northwest part of the riding, while Wong (Liberal) support is abundant along the side streets off Victoria drive between 41st and 49th.
This is simply too close to call at the moment. It all depends which voters are more motivated. A rather exhaustive lawn sign count that was done of the length and breadth of this riding turned out 95-90 for Chudnovksy, meaning that this will-- dependant on turnout-- be a squeaker either way.
30 04 05 Miles Lunn
Going strictly by parties, it should probably go NDP this time around, but with David Chudnovsky re-enforcing the NDP's image of being in bed with big labour, this certainly won't help. Judging by the signs, it seems pretty close with the NDP strongest on the North side and liberals more towards the south side of the riding. I predict an NDP squeaker, but Patrick Wong is still not out of the game. If he campaigns hard between now and election day, he can still pull it off.
30 04 05 Jay
As many of you know, this will be a VERY tough and fierce campaign for BC NDP candidate David Chudnovsky and BC LIBERAL incumbent Patrick Wong. Just driving through this riding, (and to the fellow before who talked about how NDP signage weighed 20:1 over the Liberal signage) for every David Chudnovsky sign there is, there is a Patrick Wong giant across the street. Because Patrick Wong appeals to the ethnic voters more, and deems more respectable than David Chudnovsky (I believe he was involved with something called BCIT or something...), he will grasp this riding by its pinky. Also, because some usual NDP voters are not ready to fling themselves back into the NDP muskeg, they might vote for the Green Party, sucking votes from the NDP candidate.
30 04 05 Jay
This will probably an extremely fierce campaign for the NDP candidate and BCLiberal incumbent. Just driving through this riding, for every David Chudnovsky sign there is, there's a Patrick Wong giant on the other side of the street. Considering this riding is full of Chinese people, and considering David Chudnovsky does not fare as respectable as Patrick Wong, Patrick Wong, if he is smart,
28 04 05 Bruce
Although this riding has traditionally gone NDP, it has in the past decade been a swing riding. The Eastside of Vancouver is slowly changing. Over the past decade, real estate prices and new business and housing developments have resulted in a significant influx of traditional BC Liberal voters into Kensington. This combined with the fact that Liberal candidate Patrick Wong appears to have successfully moblized the multi ethnic community make this one virtually impossible for the NDP to take back. The NDP has not helped themselves by nominating a candidate on the left wing fringe of his own party with a well known Marxist background. The NDP would have had a better chance with a moderate who better reflects the rich diversity of Kensington riding.
25 04 05 J.
I think this one's still too close to call, and will remain so until voting day. Chudnovsky got his signs up early and seems to have lots of support, but Wong's coming on strong right now.
If the Greens put up a strong candidate, they may siphon enough support from the NDP to return Wong; if not, Chudnovsky will probably win a squeaker.
25 04 05 Brent
A traditional working class East side riding that will be returned to the NDP fold, "ethnic" contrarians to the side. People here tend to vote more on economic issues than purely ethnic issues alone. Even the tyee.ca is predicting this riding likely to go NDP, based on previous elections and polling results. Furthermore, only 9 percentage points separated the winning Liberal from the NDP candidate in the 2001's Liberal landslide--hardly a comfortable margin given current polling numbers provincially and locally. My prediction: NDP: 47, Lib: 40, Green: 10
24 04 05 Justin Cheng
This will be a close election but so far I put David Chudnosskey with a slight advantage. This riding is a lower-income, working class riding that has gone to Ujjai Dosanjh before the wipeout of 2001. However this will be a close race.
23 04 05 Jason
Seems like Jim who posted his comments is just dreaming about the signs. It is only a few days into the campaign and yet Jim is already declaring that Chudnovsky is winning this sign war in the community, and that he is connected to the Indo-Canadian community. Too bad he failed to mention that Wong is also connected to the Indo-Canadian community as well, and with very strong connections, that is. For example, the Khalsa school across from the South Memorial Park which caught fire last year and a portion of it burned down, received great support and words of encouragement from Mr. Wong who came immediately upon hearing about the incident. The full potential of both sides is yet to be released, this is only the beginning. I ask that Jim would contain his excitement, and acknowledge that Mr. Wong has deep connections to ethnic groups in this riding- all the way down to the grassroots. Despite tough fights, this riding will stay Liberal by a squeaker.
22 04 05 G. Lee
Though this riding is a close call riding, I think the victory will end up in Liberals' hands. Over the last four years, as a resident in the Victoria Drive area, I have seen activities in business and communities surge right up and I think that is a good one. I predict a high 40's and low 60's for Patrick Wong while low 40's and high 30's for David Chudnovsky.
21 04 05 A. Vancouverite
I think the point that David Emerson is a right-leaning Liberal is true. However; one should also remember that people don't always vote for the individual. In some cases they do and of course this varies from riding to riding, but the 'global' (as in country wide strategy) of the federal Liberals where they claimed to share the same values as Green and NDP supporters was quite successful for them last election in putting six points between them and the Conservatives. And therefore that strategy helped Emerson win support from citizens who would most likely vote for a left leaning party and candidate. I talked to many people during the federal election who said they where "voting Liberal to stop the Conservatives", but in many ridings including this one they didn't realize the race was between the Liberals and NDP even though they wanted to vote NDP. Anyhow the Conservatives, the party in the lower mainland most likely to draw BC Liberal supporters, was a poor third in this riding. As such the BC Liberals have a smaller core base, and while it's not un-reasonable to assume that the plurality or a majority of say 60/40 of Emerson's supporters would go to the BC Liberals, I think its unreasonable to assume that more than 70-80% of them will go to the BC Liberals with the BC NDP only getting around 20-30% (and thus loose). Considering the closeness of the federal results that should help the BC NDP so that and the things I outlined in an earlier prediction should make this an NDP pick up.
21 04 05 Jim
As of April 21st, residential signage for Chudnovsky outpaces signage for Wong by a factor of 20:1, easily. Business signage for Wong outpaces signage for Chudnovsky by a similar factor.
But Chudnovsky is reaching out to the Indo-Canadian community to a great degree, and Wong is not. In fact, Chudnovksy's signs are in English, Chinese and (I believe) Punjabi, while Wong's are only in English and Chinese.
Wong has been nearly invisible in the riding, despite what previous comments have stated -- and Wong doesn't even live in the riding, while Chudnovsky has lived in the riding for 26 years and has very strong ties to the local working-class community. Coupled with his long union service, I see Chudnovsky pulling out a squeaker of a win against the incumbent.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
I would say it is a bit early to call this for the liberals. I think this riding leans NDP, but with the strong ethnic community Patrick Wong might still pull it off. Since Ujjal Dosanjh was premier, that likely gave him a 5-10% boost in support so the increase in NDP support won't likely be as large as in other ridings. Federally the NDP got 37%, which would indicate that this favors them since they are pulling 12% above what they got in the last federal election. However, considering the federal liberal candidate David Emerson is more of a Campbell style liberal as opposed to Martin style liberal, I suspect many of the left leaning liberals who go liberal federally but NDP provincially, probably went NDP in the 2004 federal election since they weren't comfortable electing a right-leaning liberal. Right now I am guessing high 40s for the NDP and low 40s for the liberals if an election were held today, but as the campaign progresses those numbers could easily change.
12 04 05 e
Patrick is going to win this riding for sure. He is not just counting on the Chinese voters, his reach into the various ethnic communities in this riding is deep. He also has the support of the Phillipino, Vietnamese and East Indian communities. He has the support of businesses in this riding, just look at Kingsway and you'll see his face on their walls. His dedication to the riding goes without being unnoticed. He is not afraid to go against the party, ie. fighting to the Seniors' bus passes, and fighting agains the establishment of a Half-Way house two blocks from an elementary school and a secondary school. Furthermore, his portfolio as Minister of State for Immigration and Multicultural services allows the various communities to notice him.
09 04 05 Laurence Putnam
Another tough seat to call. But with the improving polling numbers for the BCL's...the non-campaign the NDP is currently running, plus an incumbent cabinet minister, I think Wong will squeak it back.
1. He's established in the Chinese community.
2. Wally Oppal is running next door - Indo community likes that.
3. Green split in this riding wasn't as pronounced as most other Lower Mainland ridings -- mainly because of Ujjal factor -- so one can't conceivably see the Green/NDP split getting any better for the NDP.
No doubt this will be close, but remember, last time Ujjal Dosanjh was running here (who of course is now a federal Liberal) as Premier, outpacing the provincewide NDP results by 20 points.
C'mon...who's going to tell me no-name Chudnovsky is up to this kind of fight?
06 04 05 BLJ
On the one hand, the incumbent may appeal to the Chinese-Canadian population in the riding, while OTOH the NDP candidate is on the left of the party.
That said, this riding leans NDP and unless the Liberals open up a larger gap with the NDP in overall provincial polling, this riding will likely be an NDP gain.
30 03 05 Chinese voter
Unfortunately, I don't think most of the people here actually listen to the 2 Chinese radio station, or watch the Chinese TV newscast, or read the Chinese newspaper. Even if they watch Channel M, they would found Patrick Wong or Richard Lee appear in its news stories more than the main stream media. As well, I would ask people to go to local library and get the Ming Pao or Sing Tao archive and check out how many times you see their faces on the paper compare to NDPers like Jenny Kwan. Further more, as recent as a few weeks ago when Jenny Kwan was on Fairchild radio, she was on for 1 hour and all calls (about 10) are against the NDP.
Another thing to keep in mind is Ujjal is the leader in 2001. He get way more exposure than Patrick Wong during the campaign. The fact that Wong still win by 9% speak volume of the win.
Seems like Spectator is more interested in political advertisment than genuine analyst. Many Chinese parents think the education system in Canada is a joke compare to China, HK, or Taiwan. Most of them blame the teachers as lazy and don't care about their children's education. (This is always a popular topic in both Chinese radio stations.) Having former BCTF president running in this riding just give a big shot in the arm to Patrick Wong's re-election.
29 03 05 classy
There is no doubt in my mind that this riding will return to the NDP as it was solid NDP in 1996. The NDP has a strong, articulate candidate in this predominantly working / middle class riding. Wong has been predominantly unheard of and useless in parliament. He avoids committing to any clear position (and is in effect a puppet of the Campbell government). Although the riding is very multicultural, Chudnovsky will have many different ethnic groundworkers. This seat will go NDP with a margin of victory in the 5-10% range.
26 03 05 Spectator
It will be a close one, but Chudnovsky will win in the debates and in presentation. Wong was hiding last election, never heard him actually speak. Chudnovsky has provincial experience as a representative in the BCTF which will be of great benefit. Most of the Chinese in this riding are working people and are affected by: HIGH tuition fee, HIGH msp, cut in health, and CUT in immigrant services, social services, and ESL classrooms, and an ATTEMPTED elimination of the bus pass for seniors. The list goes on. People in Kensington are going to elect Chudnovsky and the NDP.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
For now I'll predict that Chudnovsky will get elected. The provincial NDP campaign will have to sputter badly for them to not win this riding. It's a traditional NDP seat, and even though it has a large Chinese population and the incumbent is of Chinese decent, he's been largely invisible. The 'multi-culturalism' ministry is not prestigious, and the Chinese community won't be particularly impressed in that regard. I doubt Wong will be considered to be a serious player at the cabinet table in anyone’s eyes, holding such an un-influential ministry. The important things are Education, Health, Finance, Attorney General etc.
Furthermore it's a tad in-appropriate to assume that Patrick Wong will win simply because he's Chinese, and therefore he will automatically get their votes. The entire east side of Vancouver has is pretty multi-cultural, and yet the NDP does well (more so in the Northern and Central portion of it) so it's not just white people that vote NDP. Chudnovsky will have to find an effective way to connect with members of ethnic communities that are newer to Canada to cement his chances. Regardless of what one thinks of the man he get to the top of the teachers union, so he knows how to win things. And besides since he does have all these union contacts he'll probably have a lot of volunteers, including those who could liase with the various immigrant communities, and protect his election chances.
People mention Dosanjh's personal popularity, nonetheless he got almost 38% while the NDP averaged 22% across the province, that's a 16 point higher than average performance. Even if we attribute an entire 8 points (or slightly over 20% of his entire support from 2001) to Dosanjh himself that would've still meant the NDP would've gotten 30 points in the riding. Considering that they're averaging between 37 and 43 provincially, almost doubling their support they'd have to be in serious trouble to not be able to at least get around 45 percent (a modest 15 point or around 50% increase) over last time assuming Dosanjh didn't run in this riding. Besides 38 to 45 percent is only 7 points or an 18% increase, it’s not that much. It will be lower than the swings in the rest of the province, but Chudnovsky would have to do horribly to not get re-elected.
The predictions of Chudnovsky getting in the high 40's, Wong in the Low 40's are reasonable. So I predict that Chudnovsky will get 49, Wong 39 and the others will divide the balance.
09 03 05 Scott G.
Chudnovsky, the former head of the BC Teachers' Federation, is one of the more high-profile and more outspoken members of the public-sector-union wing of the NDP. This is a sharp contrast to Dosanjh, who was always a more moderate if not right-wing New Democrat, as shown by Dosanjh's political reincarnation as a federal Liberal. So while the NDP can be expected to rebound from 2001 in most Vancouver ridings, this riding may not follow the trend. Another difference between this riding and most others in Vancouver is the incumbent Liberal MLA. The race here might be as close as last time, but for different reasons.
09 03 05 Bilraj_Ontario
Let's face it, Wong will beat Chudnovsky in this, one of the most ethnically diverse, riding in the province.
Isn't this the same Chudnovsk that was the old school, radical, teachers union spokesperson? Why'd the NDP even let him run. Guy's record gonna hurt the NDP bad-- guess this is same the old NDP.
Being the minister of Multiculturalism holds Wong really well with so many Canadians of different origins that come from this riding. This guy's connected to his community at grassroots.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
Unfortunately, the former BCTF head and complete loser will likely win this riding. The only thing the liberals have going for them is last time they were running against the premier therefore the drop in liberal vote and rise in NDP vote will be smaller than in other ridings. Likewise even in 1996, the liberals still got 40% compared to the NDP's 50% so if the NDP stays within 10% of the liberals they will win this riding, but if the liberals can get a 10% lead, they will hold it. Right now I predict low 40s for the liberals and high 40s for the NDP.
05 03 05 Brendan
Chudnovsky will likely have a strong team of dedicated and experienced volunteers. In these neighbourhoods, where an effective ground campaign is crucial to victory, I am unconvinced that Patrick Wong's reliance on a Chinese block vote will be enough to push him over the top. There are more people in this riding who won't put ethnicity as the deciding factor of their vote. Liberal policies have hurt a majority of the folks in this riding and Wong as an MLA has not addressed those issues. It is going to be very difficult for Mr. Wong to convince constituents in this riding that a second term will be different for people in Van-Kensington.
21-Feb-05 JC
This was Ujjal Dosanjh's old provincial seat, the times have changed however and it now looks like this seat will return to it's roots.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
This is a swing seat but with its huge Chinese population it will be a Liberal squeaker.

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