British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
New Democratic Party
Marijuana Party
Green Party
Unity Party
O'FLYNN, John Francis
Liberal Party
WONG, Patrick
  Vancouver Kensington
Ujjal Dosanjh

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:9.43%
Area (km2):9
Pop Density:5732.22

Surrounding Ridings:
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

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20/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
A recent walk down Main Street had Liberal Candidate posters on just about every business window. Will that translate into votes, or will there be sympathy for the man who inherited the mess. Vancouver voters were gentle to John Turner, but brutalized Kim Campbell. One to watch.
22/02/01 DMB
This might be a close fight on election night but Patrick will emerge the winner - Interested voter states that the Premier inherited the mess - if my memory serves me correctly he was a member of the cabinet when the Ferry contract was awarded - he was a member during Carriere lumber ligitation - he won't be able and the Liberals won't let him run from his record in Cabinet. There is an old saying that nice guys finish last and Dosanjah might be a nice guy but he will be hard pressed to hold onto his seat.
23/02/01 Bernard Schulmann
Look for a repeat of 1975. Dosjanh is tired and flailing, his personal popularity has fallen. He is not in a 'safe' NDP area, he is going down to defeat.
24/02/01 Nick Loenen Email:
I don't think Ujjal can survive, his printer prints are on the smoking gun, blaming others will go only so far.
06/03/01 love elections
Ujjal will win on election night in Kensington, unfortunately that's all, the province will go Campbell, he is still very popular personally, and that will pull him through with little trouble in Kensington.
20/03/01 Neil MacLean Email:
Like previous premiers, Dave Barret in 1975 and Rita Johnson in 1991, Donsanjh will lose his own seat on the way to leading his party to defeat in the next election. The strong Green Party Candidate, "Green Grandma Betty" will draw significant votes from Dosanjh and only increase the margin for local chartered accountant and BC Liberal candidate, Patrick Wong.
21/03/01 Interested Voter Email:
Now that Raging Granny Betty K has been nominated for the Greens, look for her profile to attract many of those "soft" NDP voters that simply can't stomach putting another X next to Ujjal. This will tip the balance to the Liberals. Also, this riding has changed substantially over the last 5 years. A lot of 30-40 year olds with young kids who are renovating the old housing stock and, forgive the expression, "gentrifying" the neighbourhood.
26/03/01 Bob Davies
The Liberals will take this seat too! Ujall Dosanjh will be forever remebered as the Attorney General who screwed up the Carrier Lumber appeal - that is enough to sink his ship. If that is not enough, his name is linked to the Fast Ferry Scandal, the Sky Train Boondoggle and the Casino Scandal. That should be enough to decide a lot of voters! Another watermelon hits the dirt!
05/04/01 Highland Flood
Dosanjh could win - it'll be close - but I doubt it. A high-profile Green candidate will make the difference. In a way, it's too bad. Even though I support the Greens, Dosanjh is one of the most intelligent, honest and reasonable New Democrats I know. In different circumstances, he could have been a great premier.
09/04/01 Email:
Mr. Wong is the best and most respectable candidate in the Chinese community. People know him as a hard worker and a fighter for the community and have great respect for him. As a chartered accountant, he will surely manage numbers much better than Dosanjh, who is another fudge-it-budget premier - absolutely, no difference from Glen Clark. I am sure he will do greatly at the provincial legislature.
09/04/01 EP Email:
Patrick Wong has no name recgonition whatsoever in the Chinese community. The Liberals are merely using him as token Chinese presence for this riding with big Chinese population. Chinese are constantly being shafted by the BC Liberals . The two Chinese Liberals candidates (the other one being Daniel Lee, which has some history of service in city council) are both running in tough ridings. John Cheng, probably second the most well known Chinese in BC after Raymond Chan, was out manuvered by the party office and lost the nomination (in a riding with decent shot) to a "leader blessed".
09/04/01 DMB
Note to EP - the Liberals have a third Chinese Canadian running - none other than Ida Chong - the current sitting member for Oak Bay - Gordon Head and she is assured of being elected.
Editor's Note: So far BC Liberals have nominated four Chinese candidates. Chong, Wong, Lee and Richard T Lee of Burnaby North, who ran in 1996 in the same riding as well.
18/04/01 J.F. Breton Email:
If NDP is ranked at the bottom of opinion polls for months, Dosanjh is more popular among voters than Campbell. People of Vancouver-Kensington will vote for this charismatic man.
22/04/01 Andrea Email:
A recent driven around this riding clearly shows Patrick Wong winning the sign war by a large margin. As well, Wong had over 300 supporters out to hear Gordon Campbell on Saturday morning. Compare that with the Premier have only having a handful of supporters at an event at a local community center. It is pretty clear that the people of Kensington are tired of the NDP and want a change. Wong who is a chartered accountant put it best on BCTV last night when he said " My opponent admitted that fast ferries was a mistake - we all agree - but it is the duty of a captain to go down with his ship" I don't think the Premier even wants to win this seat. He looks tired and simply wants the pain of this campaign to be over.
23/04/01 Shoot the Sheriff Email:
In the world of political pendulum, the pendulum has been swinging left too long. It's time for the pendulum to swing back right before the string breaks. Capturing this seat is so important for the Liberals. Given recent poll results, the Liberals should now concentrate on wiping out key NDP pockets of support. This is one of them.
24/04/01 Wilson Wong Email:
I definitely will not vote for the Liberals or the NDP. As a Chinese-Canadian, I see Patrick Wong as another token Chinese candidate running in a riding with many Chinese people. Is it a surprise that Wong is an accountant. Are there any Chinese Liberal candidates who are not accountants or lawyers or doctors? I would just like to see variety in the qualified candidates. Therefore, I am voting Green. Hope Betty Krawczyk wins this riding because I am not sure that Wong would provide the representation the riding deserves because he would be lost in the huge Liberal caucus.
24/04/01 Haywood Jablome Email:
I'm not a big fan of the NDP, but I've stated earlier that the lack of an opposition is unhealthy for any democracy. The obliteration of the NDP wouldn't do the Liberals any good from an accountability point of view. Ujjal should prevail here if only because he had the guts to captain a sinking ship. I don't give Ujjal much for anything else but like a good captain he's staying with the ship come hell or high water. He'll probably end up as leader of a rump party of maybe 5 or 6 MPs. But Ujjal should hang tough in opposition - afterall the NDP's demise falls squarely on the shoulders of one Glen Clark, who is nowhere to be seen today.
25/04/01 Interested Voter Email:
A drive through the riding yesterday indicated only one pocket of support (Main & 49th) where Dosanjh signs are in the majority. Clark Drive had 19 Wong signs to 3 Dosanjh. The party is over.
26/04/01 RLZ Email:
Ujjal is out - he's going down with his party. When a party is crushed in an election, like what is about to happen to the NDP, usually the leader loses their own seat. Look at Kim Campbell in the federal Tory collapse of '93. Even though the premier's personal popularity is higher than that of his party, it too has fallen below Campbell's popularity. As long as Patrick Wong continues to run a good campaign, he should be able to take this riding easily.
26/04/01 Mark R.
Given that the Greens have a strong, well-known candidate (as well as being up in the polls), BC Liberal candidate Patrick Wong is hustling his hump (and enjoying a huge lead in the polls), and people in the riding saying it would be to their advantage to have someone on the government side representing them, I'd give this riding to the BC Liberals. I don't think that Ujjal will do as well as predicted, looking at last election's previous numbers (only a 10 point spread). Look for former Reform BC support to easily slide to Wong, and Green support grow at NDP expense.
27/04/01 BY Email:
There seems to be a minor error on this websight regarding the Unity Party. Alice Wong is not, nor will be a candidate in this or any other riding during the provincial election. Apparently she has chosen to play the role of media pundit in order to raise her profile for another run for the Canadian Alliance in the next federal election. FYI, just to highlight the disorganization of the NDP, Dosanjh is not even an officially registered candidate yet and the election is 10 days old! Is it just me or have these guys given up?
29/04/01 Spatch Email:
High profile Green candidate will split the vote with Ujjal. Being leader, while normally a positive attribute, will backfire for Ujjal -- he is the symbolic target representing all things NDP that the voters of this riding will overwhelmingly reject. Combined with the (albiet small) Reform BC vote going to the BC Liberals, this riding is a no brainer: BC Liberal.
30/04/01 Martin Eady Email:
A drive through the riding indicates that Wong has a huge lead in signs - all in front of houses. Walk along the business streets like Victoria Drive and Wong's poster is in every window. Wong has the advantage that he's there every day talking to undecided voters (I presume). Meanwhile Dosanjh is out getting bad press for a lacklustre campaign in the rest of the provice. Wong clearly has energy and the momentum. It's becoming clear that Dosanjh won't even have a seat in the next legislature. BC Liberal gain.
01/05/01 Michael Ensley
Ujjal's debate performance save his own personal seat.
04/05/01 Mark R.
New polling results should put this riding into a BC Liberal win. COMPAS polled the following: 52% Liberal, 29% NDP, 14% Green. And McTintyre & Mustel did a new poll as well: 53% Liberal, 31% NDP, 10% Green. This indicates that this riding will go Liberal and should be adjusted accordingly.
04/05/01 Interested Observer Email:
Check your premises here. It looks as if Ujjal is the Nancy MacBeth of BC. I know no one likes to bet against a party leader, especially if he's the premier, but the COMPAS poll just done in Kensington puts Wong at 52%. Even if the margin of error is huge, I think Ujjal is toast. But then again, I'm just an "interested observer".
04/05/01 Old BC political hack Email:
Two independent polls in the riding with fairly large sample sizes each put Dosanjh more than 20 points down. The odds of making up that kind of ground in ten days is about zero, especially when you consider that his provincial campaign has failed to gain any momentum whatsoever. (The NDP actually went DOWN two points in the last COMPAS poll, scraping along at 15%. They are now down to public sector unions, friends and family in terms of support.) MacPhail and Kwan might have a fighting chance to defend their seats, but you can stick a fork in Ujjal -- he's done.
04/05/01 Bernard Schulmann
As I have suspected, the riding level polls released today showed that the NDP was far behind the Liberals, but far ahead of the Greens. Though if the Greens were to through their support behind Ujjal, a race could be made out of it, Dosanjh would only be 10+ points behind.
04/05/01 Interested Voter Email:
Two polls today confirm that Dosanjh is 22 points behind Liberal Wong. NDP campaigns report that people won't put signs on lawns for fear of vandalism and/or retribution. There is no such thing as a safe seat anymore.
04/05/01 Interested Observer Email:
Check your premises. Ujjal Dosanjh is in great danger of getting toasted here - the COMPAS poll has the Liberal at 52%. Even if the margin of error is high, Ujjal will need a miracle to win his own seat - Nancy MacBeth syndrome all over again. However on the bright side for him, it's not like he's gonna be the only dipper to lose on election night...
06/04/01 Michael Ensley
With Ujjal D best campaign speech fighting back on Native rights against those who intend to roll that back and with business also concerned about the lost of investment money this riding could be the biggest surprise of eday. Remember, BC polls gave John Turner no hope on winning Vancouver Quadra in 1984 and he won it against huge odds. If there is any movement at all to preserve some form of limited opposition Ujjal D could still win in spite of polls to the contrary. For the sake of Liberal accountability BC needs an opposition just to ask questions concerning government decisions.
07/05/01 snickerdo Email:
Living in Ontario, I don't know much about BC politics but that never stops me from sending in my opinions. The NDP are going to take a real old fashioned beating on May 16 starting with the lame duck premier. Wong will win this one easy.
08/05/01 Michael Ensley
The anti-gay comments by the liberal candidate could help Ujjal D. close the gap. Comments like this will remind former NDP voters what the next four years will be like.
07/05/01 Kensington Watcher EMAIL_NO = selected Email:
Dosanjh's message in Vancouver-Kensington has not resinated here, like everywhere else in the province. Wong continues to show strong support and momentum throughout the community. Unfortunately for Mr. Dosanjh no matter what he does he can not hide from the referendum on May 16th - on what people think of the NDP government's record over the last 10 years. P.S. Does anyone want to buy three fastferries?
08/05/01 DMB
Michael makes a point about re-electing Ujjal to ensure Liberal accountability. It is the voters that all elected politicians are accountable to and the voters of Kensington are ready to pass judgment on their currrent member - Ujjah Dosanjh - the man who at first didn't read and then admitted he read part of the Carrier lumber judgement, who at first didn't know about the Doman deal then admitted it had been discussed in general terms, who couldn't remember whether he was at the treasury board meeting when the fast ferries were being discussed - I think you are starting to get the picture - the voters of Vancouver Kensington are passing judgement on Ujjal Dosanjh and not on Patrick Wong who has yet to be entrusted with the voter's concern. On May 16, 2001 the voters will render their decision and Ujjal will be finally held accountable for his actions and sent to his final resting place on Marine Drive with it's beautiful lawns and views.
09/05/01 BW Email:
Why are the NDP only attacking the chinese candidates for not showing up at all-candidate meetings? They aren't the first candidates that have not shown up at a meeting. This type of negative campaigning in a close race (in those ridings) is not a good strategy especially when the majority of the constituents in those ridings are Chinese. Ujjal has been Premier for a couple of sittings of the legislature and is now promising to look into getting aid for condo owners. What was he doing in the last few years while his party was in government at the height of the condo crisis? The findings of the hearings headed by a former NDP premier didn't exactly satisfy the condo owners. If Ujjal is going to be blowing more smoke, maybe he should join that other party associated with smoking.
10/05/01 Michael Ensley
In his most recent debate with Campbell Ujjal D sounded like the opposition leader in waiting. This will help the BCNDP to save some seats to hold the Liberals accountable. Also, why did Campbell agree to this encounter? Maybe, Campbell wants the NDP around to blame when they "open the books" and start to bring in their spending cuts?
11/05/01 LHGP
Having conceded defeat, and in being party leader, coupled with incumbent advantage, Ujjal could actually pull this off to end up as leader of a party with 3-5 seats. He's doing the best thing he can at this point by going with the argument that somebody needs to hold Campbell accountable.
13/05/01 AP
I think Ujjal will take it now. This is because he has conceeded. His stressing of some sort of opposition and fact that people like Ujjal personally will gave him this riding. Also P. Wongs screwups and him not attending local debates will surely help Ujjal.
13/05/01 John O'Flynn
As the Unity Party candidate, I am upset at the lack of respect Patrick Wong has had for his fellow candidates. In three forums that include a community meeting, Shaw T.V. debate and a Chinese radio forum, he has not shown the courtesy to voters and candidates by his "no-voice" approach to democracy. This is disrespectful behavior and this does not bode well for our riding.
14/05/01 Predictor Email:
Has anyone driven around the riding lately? Ujjal signs are everywhere. He has clearly overtaken Wong in the sign war. Signs don't vote, but I think you are too quick to put this one in the Liberal column.
14/05/01 Eye on Kensington Email:
It appears that desperation has set into the Dosanjh camp. An immensely negative brochure has now been sent to households in this riding that attacks BC Liberal candidate Patrick Wong. Furthermore, in a flagrant violation of the BC Election rules, Dosanjh is using his MLA business card on his door-to-door canvas. Yet another slap in the face to the NDP here is that a Compas poll released today doesn't even list this riding as one of the seven the NDP may win. With all due respect to the Unity candiate (who?), BC Liberal candidate Patrick Wong has been accessible throughout this campaign - visible in the community, attending candidates' forums and radio debates. There is more to a campaign than just attending candidate forums. Wong, hard-working and dedicated, deserves the victory on May 16th.
15/05/01 Predictor
"Eye on Kensington" refers to a compass poll. The compass poll does not list seven seats the NDP can win. There was a poll done here earlier, which did show Dosanjh behind, but that is now somewhat stale.

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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