British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Marijuana Party
HUGHES, Paul Emerson
Liberal Party
Green Party
Unity Party
New Democratic Party
Ian Waddell

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:6.73%
Area (km2):13
Pop Density:3870.77

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo North
Richmond East

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19/02/01 CM Email:
Despite being a fairly competent minister, Waddell barely won in '96, and will loone in '01.
27/02/01 Informant Email:
Rumor has it that Gordon Campbell has one Superstar candidate who will run in this riding.
28/02/01 DMB Email:
To the informant: would the superstar's iniitals be D.E.
03/03/01 Informant Email:
I hear that Mr. Emerson is a real possibility ...... but that there is a solid change that the candidate is even better.
20/03/01 DMB
The fact that the Liberals have yet to set a candidate selection meeting seems to indicate that indeed that the party has a big name it wants to run here but doesn't want a repeat of the nomination mess in 1996 - by waiting until the writ is dropped the party and Gordon can much easier manipulate the selection process. Perhaps informant would like to drop a hint as to who he thinks it is and then I can respond to see if it is the same person that I hear would be running.
20/03/01 Marty Email:
Even if the NDP's popularity wasn't plunging, this would be hard for the NDP to keep. Yaletown (and now Coal Harbour) is adding thousands of new voters to the lists, and there are hardly any NDP'ers to be found in those fancy towers. Given the NDP's general collapse, Stevenson will be wiped out. It won't even be close, anywhere in the riding. Lorne Mayencourt will easily be the next MLA.
26/03/01 Bob Davies
The Liberals will take this seat too! Ian Waddel will be remembered as one of BC's most ineffective Ministers of Small business Development. He's part of the team that drove businesses and jobs from the province. One more squished Watermelon! Watermelons are green on the outside and red in the middle - for those who don't know!
07/04/01 Highland Flood
Waddell will be swept out as the Liberal tide extends to cover the entire West Side. I've heard another rumour of a "star candidate" for the Liberals: APEC protester, lawyer and BC Civil Liberties Association president Craig Jones. My source also has an uneasy feeling that despite his politically progressive pedigree, Jones is a sheer opportunist, a charismatic but ruthless hustler who will work his way up the political ladder far more quickly than he deserves to (much like Glen Clark or Stockwell Day), and could be a leadership candidate when Campbell resigns. Of course, we could be wrong. We hope so.
18/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
It turns out that there is no star Liberal candidate in this riding. I'm not sure who they ended up nominating, but there was a lot of controversy and one of the losing candidates referred to Gordon Campbell as Stalin. I think they were trying to get Wally Opal to run and he said no. It won't affect the easy Liberal win here, but it is interesting that people like Emerson and Oppal turned down a sure Legislature seat and Cabinet post.
19/04/01 DMB
The Liberal finally hand picked Ken johnson who is a Richmond concillor. One of the candidates who wanted the nomination couldn't get party clearance because he didn't pass the test - seems he has a conviction for employment insurance violations. Despite some bitterness by the Indo-Canadian commmunity the Liberals will gain this seat on May 16, 2001.
20/04/01 I.O. Email:
The fact the liberals coudn't pick a candidate from within the Van-Fraserview riding has got to tell you that there isn't much in the organising department there. Ian Waddell is an election machine, with years of political experience. If the Liberals think this riding will be a cakewalk for them they got another thing coming.
27/04/01 Mark R.
I think "I.O." had better go back to school and revamp his/her mathematics, statistics, and take a refresher course in Politics 101. With redistribution putting last year's MDP election win a meager 1%, I doubt very much the NDP will keep this riding. True, Ian is a seasoned veteran, having served both as an NDP MP federally and as an MLA and cabinet minister. But even the most experienced of soldiers would fall on the battlefield when faced with insurmountable odds. The facts are: (1) Recent polling results putting the BC Liberals at over 70% (2) A surge in Green support, at the expense of the NDP (3) This riding was won by the NDP incumbent by a minority of the electorate. With the anti-NDP voters solidifying their vote to the provincial Liberals, this spells armageddon for the NDP. Nice try, "I.O."
01/05/01 HCW Email:
With a high profile candidate likely to be finance minster after the election this has got to be considered a safe Liberal seat. Across the braod specturl of people I know, the common theme is to change a government that has had a very poor record of managing an economy in relative boom. With the current slow down this trend has to be reversed. Talking to oil and gas exploration firms - they advise that it takes something on the order of 4 - 10 times as much admin and paper work - with associated costs - to explore / drill in BC's North East vs Alberta. Indeed a number of firms I have spoken to advised that it is easier for these Canadian companies to work in the US than it is to work in BC.
04/05/01 concerned voter Email:
Ian Waddell is a nice hard working man, however the NDP is not hard working and I wouldn't call the NDP nice. The party is over for the NDP and Ian Waddell, the province would rather have 79 GORDON CAMPBELLS, THAN EVEN ONE NDPer. Good bye Ian enjoy your future where ever that takes you.
05/05/01 BS Email:
All I see is Liberal Signs all over the nieghborhood, is the NDP hibernating with Boris the Bear.
05/04/01 BS Email:
The liberal Office had there leader Gordon Campbell there Saturday and they had about 300 people there, while when the NDP had Ujjal Dosanjh at there office they only had 20 people there. Ken Johnston is going to win by over 3000 votes, my prediction today.
06/04/01 DMB
To BS - there are a few Ian Waddell signs up - they are from his last campaign in 1996 because they say elect instead of re-elect. Does that mean that he actually collected a salary for the last five years but is too embarassed by the performance of the government that he is trying to hood wink the voters of Fraserview into thinking he a new candidate. Also his signs say New Democrats instead of today's new democrats - anybody taken the time to see if the right financial agent's name is on them. I guess Ian being sorry for wanting to pave over Burns Bog thinks he can be an enviromentalist by reusing his campaign signs. The Greens are smart enough to know the difference and Ken Johnson now has his campaign in high gear - Mr Waddell will soon start collecting his severance and pension.
10/05/01 BS Email:
I was at a local debate at Killarney Community Centre. It was quite interesting how Ian jumped up and down, turned red, yelled at the microphone. Ian's a classy guy, who likes the merry-go-around, so much he was going to bring it to Burns Bog. The best part of the deabte was when the Liberal guy Ken Johnston, caught Ian using a same quote from 1999, that Ian had used then. The NDP will be creating new jobs, jobs for Movers...

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Last Updated 10 May 2001
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