Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:36 AM 30/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:02 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Work Less
Charles Brunet-Latimer
Christopher De Wilde
Mark Allen Conrad Gueffroy
Anita Romaniuk
BC Liberal
Carole Taylor
Green Party
Doug Warkentin

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:9.98%
Area (km2):15
Pop Density:3456.67

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Richmond Centre
Richmond East

26 03 05 yalie
A Liberal win here. In my view Carole Taylor was appointed because the Libs felt this riding was actually in play. This wealthy urban riding is filled with CBC-types and are ideologically closer to the federal Liberals than the BC Liberals (who aren't affiliated). Given Campbell's neo-conservative ideology, the federal Liberals don't wish to be associated with the BC Liberals at this point. Urban voters reject neo-conservative political parties. And retiring Val Anderson is a "lefty" within the Liberal Party. Appointing a CBC executive is enough to give off the impression of small-l liberalism rather than a harsher right-wing conservatism, which fits the riding very well.
29 03 05 mjb
If you thought this riding was a Liberal stronghold before, add Carole Taylor to the mix, and we are talking about a LANDSLIDE here. Taylor is well known to all Canadians, and has a very impressive resume. She is poised to win a high-profile cabinet job, and once she gets political experience under her belt, will be groomed to take over as premier when Campbell retires. Someday, a Carole will be premier, but it will be Taylor, not James.
21 03 05 M. Lunn
Anybody who thinks the NDP has a chance at winning this riding is out of their mind. This was the third best showing for the liberals in 1996 and with the BC liberals polling at 46% vs. 41% in 1996 and the fact support is higher in the Lower Mainland than elsewhere adds up to a BC Liberal landslide. The fact Carole Taylor is running only means the liberals will win even bigger, possibly over 65% of the popular vote. Carole Taylor will not only win this riding, but she was almost certainly be a cabinet minister should the liberals win the election as they likely will. My guess is she will be minister of Education since she will likely represent the more liberal side of the party just as Christy Clark did.
19 03 05 politics101
Now that Carole Taylor has been announced as the Liberal candidate in this riding any doubts that the NDP might pull an upset have been swept away - in fact Carole's margin of victory might been larger than Val's and if Gordon should stumble or lose in Point Grey look for Carole to become leader.
15 03 05 Scott G.
In my previous post, I mistakenly said that Anita Romaniuk is chair of the Vancouver school board. She's actually on the parks board, and she isn't the chair of it, just one of the commissioners. She is, however, quite active in COPE, as I said.
With the appointment of CBC chair Carole Taylor as the Liberal candidate, I'd have to say that the Liberals have the edge. Although, as she was appointed over two candidates who'd spent a lot of time and effort running for the nomination, those candidates and the people who worked for them may be somewhat grudging in their support for Taylor.
15 03 05 JC
Carole Taylor just announced she is seeking the nomination in Vancouver-Langara, she is a high-profile nominee and she will easily win this riding against Anita Romaniuk who really should not have beaten Bev Meslo who was a much better known Candidate.
14 03 05 Scott G.
Anita Romaniuk is chair of the Vancouver school board and a central figure in the NDP-aligned civic party COPE. As such, she's likely to be a good campaigner herself as well as receiving strong support from local and provincial NDP members / allies, and enjoying name recognition outside the NDP. Former federal leadership candidate and 2004 federal MP candidate Bev Meslo also ran for the nomination, losing narrowly to Romaniuk.
The presence of two high-profile New Democrats seeking the nomination suggests that the NDP sees this riding as competitive now that Val Anderson is retiring. Anderson is a left-wing Liberal, one of only two left from Gordon Wilson's class of '91, and his re-election in '96 and '01 owed something to his own personal popularity as well as the fact he was running for the opposition.
The Liberal nomination race also features two high-profile candidates, former NPA councillors Jennifer Clarke and Lynne Kennedy, who were both voted out of office in the '02 civic election. There are rumours a star candidate will be appointed, possibly Carole Taylor or UBC president Martha Piper. Any one of these four would be a strong candidate with high name recognition and useful experience, but the Liberal candidate will face a formidable opponent in Romaniuk.
14 03 05 IGB
CBC chair Carole Taylor will be running here for the Liberals as a "star candidate." She's quite a catch for the Campbell government, not only as a broadcaster and CBC chair but also a former Vancouver councillor. The Liberals will probably work really hard to make sure Taylor wins (we're talking about a potential cabinet minister here) and, given Taylor's high-profile, she should be able to pull it out. Unless the NDP also manages to nominate a "star" here.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
This is not a too close to call riding. It was the liberals third best showing in 1996 and they will win this one big no matter who they choose. Sure Val Anderson's personal appeal and the fact he was a real liberal and as opposed to a conservative in liberal clothing may have helped him a bit, but at most that will only change about 5% of the votes still allowing the liberals to win easily even if they choose a conservative as their candidate.
28 02 05 Pete Smith
Ah, Oakridge and Marpole form this riding and the BC Libs have not nominated a candidate yet due to local organizers who are working for the lesser candidate, Lady MacBeth/Clarke, who have delayed the nomination for about 6 months now. They've caused the Federal Liberal candidate who happens to be Chinese to withdraw in a riding that has a majority of Chinese residents.
Val Anderson was the most left wing BC Liberal MLA and a lot of his voter support reflects that, Jennifer Clarke and her crew of Conservative Party organizers have pissed off most of the long time Val supporters.
I won't call it for anyone else but a good candidate for the NDP, Greens or even DRBC could change the outcome in a variety of ways.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This is a very safe liberal riding. Shaughnessy is a high-end area which generally tends to vote for centre-right parties so easy liberal win even though Val Anderson is not running again.

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