Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
4:35 PM 22/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:03 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Katrina Chowne
Green Party
Lorinda Earl
BC Liberal
Colin Hansen
Jarrah Hodge
Rhiannon Rose

BC Liberals:
HANSEN, Hon. Colin
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:13.20%
Area (km2):22
Pop Density:2425.91

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Richmond Centre
Vancouver-Point Grey

18 04 05 M. Name
You just have to feel badly for the young activist NDP candidate from UBC in this riding. Running is a campaign is a lot of work for a guaranteed trouncing. Perhaps is BC-STV goes through that will no longer be the case.
This one goes to Libs by a landslide. The battle for second place could see the Greens reign supreme. 75-12-12-1
02 04 05 Politics101
A landslide win for Colin and with some 500 supporters Colin's workers will be fanned out to help in adjacent ridings like Fairview and Langara much like in both 1996 and 2001.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
This is a complete Liberal lock. If they lose this riding, they've basically lost them all. I'd say Hansen is about as safe in this riding as Jenny Kwan is in hers. Just across town, but polar opposites.
Lib, Hansen 65
NDP, Hodge 25
Green Nobody 7
DRBC Nobody 3
08 03 05 Nick Boragina
Over 70% even around 70 in 1996. This is the Mount Royal of BC. The MLA will be re-elected, he'd be re-elected even if he was a mailbox with a liberal logo on the side. This is the easiest prediction I've ever made.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
In a race between Hansen, the newly minted finance minister who's just delivered a good-news budget, versus a young NDP activist, there shouldn't be much of a contest, unless Hodge can establish her credentials in this particular riding and the provincial Liberal campaign goes into the tank. The NDP would love to embarrass Campbell by defeating one of the few remaining moderates in the cabinet, but they're more likely to focus on ridings they have a good chance of winning.
23-Feb-05 Mike Mulroney
Colin Hansen won a huge majority in this riding back in 1996 when the NDP won the election. He won again in 2001 with over 70% of the Vote. With the BC Liberals leading the polls and expected to win another majority government (albeit a smaller one), BC's new Finance Minister is unbeatable his high income Vancouver riding.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
One of the safest liberal seats in BC. Colin Hansen is definitely going back to Victoria. The question is will he keep his job as finance minister or become finance critic. I think and hope the former is true, but will have to see.
23-Feb-05 JRFD
The NDP is running a youth candidate against the finance minister in this safe Liberal riding. It's a Liberal lock.
23-Feb-05 S.G.
One of the safest Liberal seats, Finance Minister should be able to keep it.

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