vfv-Vancouver-Fraserview

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver-Fraserview
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:02 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:33 PM 22/04/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Marijuana
Shea Campbell

NDP
Ravinder Gill

BC Liberal
Wally Oppal

Green Party
Doug Perry

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
JOHNSTON, Ken

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 50320

Dev. from Quota: 6.73%

Area (km2): 13

Pop Density: 3870.77

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

56.84%

31.90%

7.77%

2.02%

1996 Result (redistributed):

45.24%

44.34%

3.48%

4.46%

1.26%

Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby-Willingdon
Cariboo North
Richmond East
Vancouver-Kensington
Vancouver-Kingsway
Vancouver-Langara


	02 05 05	M. Lunn
True, Wally Oppal is losing the sign war, but that really means nothing. Laura McDiarmid is winning the sign war in Vancouver-Hastings, but does anybody honestly believe she will win that riding. As someone involved in Door Canvassing, I can tell you there are far more liberal supporters out there than many believe while NDP supporters are generally more likely to put up a lawn sign than liberal supporters. It will be closer but Wally Oppal will narrowly win. My guesses are high 40s for liberals and low 40s for NDP.
	01 05 05	JC
My first impression was that this candidate was a good draw for libs. Now I'm not so sure. Why? No lawn signs for liberals! No presence in community! No evidence of any campaign! One problem of being a drop in last minute candidate: no organization of your own?
	18 04 05	Full Name/Initial?
I cant believe they havent changed the prediction yet... my call goes to Wally Oppal by 12 to 15 points. Did anyone else see the NDP Candidate trucking out his teenage daughter to insult Oppal as a hastily-arranged retaliation to Oppal's candidacy announcement.... very clever .. ? .. Wally Oppal is an ardent believer in justice, and his strong ideas about law reform appeal to many who want him as the next AG. He has an excellent profile within immigrant communities also (Indo-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian). Barring a Liberal and/or Oppal disaster, this riding will be a landslide... could Dosanjh drop in for some Oppal campaigning? I wouldn't count it out.
	16 04 05	BLJ
With the BC Court of Appeal Justice Wally Oppal's nomination and as probably the most well known justice on the bench, a relatively easy Liberal win. As first reported in the Globe and Mail, the Liberal's own internal polling show that he has a 68% name recognition factor within the riding and will not only appeal to the conservative Canadian-Chinese vote in the riding but also the large Indo-Canadian vote.
	15 04 05	M. Lunn
With Wally Oppal's star appeal and adding to the fact the liberals only loss by 1% in 1996 and the fact they are polling 5 to 10 points higher in the Lower Mainland than in 1996, I think they will hold this one. In fact this may be the only riding they win on the East Side of Vancouver since Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Vancouver-Hastings will definitely go NDP, Vancouver-Kingsway will likely go NDP, and there is about a 60% chance Vancouver-Kensington will go NDP. Though if the NDP numbers continue to fall they may not even win Vancouver-Kingsway and Vancouver-Kensington.
	12 04 05	e
The Honourable Justice Wally Oppal will win this riding. Vancouver-Fraserview has a large Chinese community that supported his predecessor Ken Johnston greatly. This support will transfer over to Justice Oppal, and he will bring with him some of the Indo-Canadian voters, which will split the Indo support base of the NDP candidate. His notability as a Appeals Court Justice will garner him more support among the Chinese voters, who view justice as being of utmost importance. Furthermore, the riding will like the possibility of being represented by a senior cabinet minister with Oppal's possible appointment as Attorney General.
	11 04 05	A. Vancouverite
BLJ, the average income information is true. But one must remember that this riding contains Shaugnessy, one of the richest neighbourhoods in the country! That will skew the average. The rest of the riding is slightly above average, but that's due to the large number of people with degrees, 'new middle class' folks such as Lawyers, Social Workers, Teachers/Professors, health care workers such as Nurses and technicians and Small Business People -- who as a group lean towards a Robertson type NDP candidate. And there are still quite a lot of renters in the non-Shaugnessy portion of the riding, and that will keep the NDP afloat so to speak.
	09 04 05	A. Vancouverite
While I think the Liberals will probably win considering their lead now, I wouldn't be so quick to call it for them yet. Most people don't even know who Wally Oppal is so that's not even as important as those in the Liberal camp like to claim. His talents would be more of an asset in a government, not in gaining votes. But an interesting thing to note is that Ujjal Dosanjh, former NDP premier, won the federal riding of Vancouver South by a 20 point margin, and the federal Conservative barely beat an out an out socialist, Bev Meslo the federal NDP candidate, by less than a percentage point. Since more of the right-wing voters in that federal riding are in the provincial riding of Vancouver-Langara (that's pretty much guaranteed to go BC Liberal come may 17th), this riding should be a lot closer than many of you are claiming. While I won't predict that Ravinder Gill will win, this riding should be close on election night, and will probably go with the winner (likely but FAR from guaranteed to be -- Liberal). A true bellweather.
	09 04 05	M. Lunn
With Wally Oppal running in this riding, I would give the liberals an 80% chance of winning this riding considering they are polling higher in the Lower Mainland than in 1996 when they only lost by 1 point not to mention Wally Oppal will almost certainly be the Attorney General should he win his seat and should the liberals win the election, which will likely happen. Also he is a real liberal so many federal liberals who may be wary of some of the more conservative members in the BC Liberals will be more comfortable voting for him
	03 04 05	Mike Mulroney
The NDP won this riding by a razor thin margin back in 1996, with the advantage of (cabinet) incumbency, and partly because the Liberals didn’t find a candidate until after the writ had been dropped. The BC Liberals are polling stronger provincially, and even stronger in the Mainland than they were in 1996, and now have the advantage of incumbency. Unless the BC Liberals take a big hit in the near future, they should win this riding.
	02 04 05	Politics101
With Wally Oppal set to announce he is running in this riding time to put it in the Liberal fold - Wally will add to the growing list of strong candidates that will be part of the Liberals second term.
	02 04 05	Interested Voter
Globe and Mail reports today that Justice Wally Oppal will be running in this riding, along with a poll that states he has a 68% positive rating. This race is over.
	02 04 05	Andrew
Nomination of Wally Oppal. Good name regonition, wiuth support Ii would thought from both sides of the spectrum. It's leading me to recomsider my vote.
	02 04 05	BLJ
Ian Waddell, the NDP incumbent, held this seat by a 1% margin in 1996. In civic politics, (leaving the 2002 results aside) the municipal NPA has always done well on this part of the east-side. Surprisingly, in the 2002 municipal election the NPA mayoral candidate won 4 of the polls here. For the NDP to win, they would need a candidate of the calibre of Gregor Robertson and to to close the polling gap with the Liberals in the final week of the campaign. For now, with the incumbency factor, I see this seat as a Liberal hold.
	29 03 05	classy
Unfortunately, I am predicting this riding will go corporate ... I mean Liberal. There have been a lot of expensive condo developments in Fraserview. Combine that with the older conservative population in Champlain mall area and I project this seat will stay liberal with a 5-10% margin of victory.
	16 03 05	Scott G.
The trend in this election will probably be for NDP candidates to sweep the east side of Vancouver as they've traditionally done in the past. The history of this riding suggests it'll be part of the sweep - the NDP won it in 1991 and again (albeit narrowly) in 1996. Johnston hasn't got much publicity, good or bad, in the last four years. I'd say he has the advantage as the incumbent. Gill I believe is a former BC Liberal organizer. The general public probably won't care about this one way or the other, but it might turn off some NDP supporters.
	08 03 05	M. Lunn
I predict the Ken Johnston will narrowly win this riding. Unlike the other East Vancouver ridings, this one usually goes with the winner. The Indo-Candian vote is split between Vancouver-Langara and Vancouver-Fraserview so their impact will be small while Champlain Heights will vote strong in favour of the liberals to counter the strong NDP vote around Fraser and Knight.
	24 02 05	Luke
This riding has a strong chinese population, they are going to vote for Johnston. While Gill is backed by the Indo community, the Indo vote does not carry much weight like 3%. So this riding will go BC Liberal.
	24 02 05	Jo
This riding is a swing riding, and has always been in favour of the government of the day. As BC Liberals will regain majority, this riding will stay BC Liberal. Ken Johnston is well liked and respected in the community. I don't even know who the NDP candidate is, or even belongs to any community organizations.

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