Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:25 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:25 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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The Platinum
Nattanya Andersen
Paul Geddes
Green Party
Michael Hejazi
Brandon Steele
BC Liberal
Richard Stewart
Diane Thorne

BC Liberals:
STEWART, Richard
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:4.84%
Area (km2):31
Pop Density:1594.52

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
New Westminster
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Port Moody-Westwood

04 05 05 Nelson Muntz
After another week and a bit, I'm more firm that this one is going to the NDP and Diane Thorne. The election sign battle appears to be strongly tilted in favour of Thorne with a majority of Stewart signs on public property, and a significant number of Thorne signs on private property. Those projecting a break through for Hejazi are smoking "Green". Carli Travers polled under 6% in the last federal election, faced with strong challenges from Dave Haggard (L) and Steve McClurg (NDP) for the non-incumbent vote. Even if the Greens double that output, or triple it to 18%, it will not be enough to take the seat. BC Liberals have been aggressive on the phone board though - my call display recorded 8 (yes, 8) calls in one day from the BCL campaign. However, I'm sticking with Diane Thorne as the winner at this point.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Historically this was an NDP riding, but in 2001, this was the second strongest liberal showing (57%) after Port Moody-Westwood in Burnaby/New West/Tri Cities. With the liberals being at 49% in Vancouver/Burnaby/New West/Tri Cities and NDP at 39%, I would suspect the NDP will get just under 40% while the liberals will probably drop around 10% to 47% since they averaged close to 59% in 2001 in those ridings. It will be closer but Richard Stewart I think will win it. The NDP should probably focus more on neighbouring Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain or New Westminister where I would say they still have a 60% chance of winning, then this one where they will have need a major bounce in the polls to pull it off.
02 05 05 WL
Many people have mentioned that Richard Stewart has been very invisible except for those nasty accusations and personal attacks made by the NDP and Elayne Brenzinger. Let's remember that there are 79 MLAs and unless they are cabinet ministers or very very outspoken MLAs, it is not easy to be very visible. Most people also do not pay attention to politics.
Mr.Stewart became famous for a wrong reason. I can't even imagine how difficult it must've been for his family. At the same time, Mr.Stewart showed his integrity when handling all these accusations. He also took a high road by not suing Ms.Brenzinger about making false accusations and ruining his name. I know many people -even those who don't like BC Liberals- who gained respect for doing that. So I think this will help him.
Mr.Stewart has been working hard for his riding and people or the media do not always recognize those hard works.
Also, I think middle-income earners and small business owners in this riding will vote for the BC Liberals again.
This will be another close race but Mr.Stewart will win this one.
26 04 05 A. Vancouverite
M.Lunn it's interesting that you pointed, when making your Vancouver Kensington prediction, that David Emerson is a Campbell style Liberal therefore Peter Wong would have a chance at re-election. One thing you failed to recognize in your prediction for Coquitlam-Maillardville is that Dave Haggard is a former New Democrat (thus left leaning Liberal). While its true that lots of people were voting for his Liberal label regardless of his personal politics, some would've been attracted to his left leaning politics. Considering that the New Democrats are running a popular city councillor, and former businesswoman, they seem likely to be able to capture around ~60%+ of the federal Liberal vote needed to win -- so long as their provincial campaign can stay at around 40%. The Liberal incumbent isn't particularly well known except for being the victim of Elaine Brenzinger's sexual harassment charges, and being in the hospital. As such I can't see why he personally would be much of an asset to the Liberals due to his relatively low and bland profile in comparison to Thorne. I'd admit that if they can run a good provincial campaign they have a chance but I'd put my money on Thorne. Therefore I'll predict a close win for the NDP's Diane Thorne.
Date 24 04 05 Fitzpatrick
I really don't understand why people are saying that the NDP candidate will win this riding. There is no way. People here are middle class. They don't want higher taxes. Votes will go Liberal or Green. People don't want Mr. Campbell back in office, so votes will go the third way; to the Green Camp. Michael Hejazi, the Green candidate will take votes from both sides.
24 04 05 M. Lunn
Even though this was traditionally an NDP riding, things have changed. Considering this riding always went NDP federally as well up until 1993 yet in the most recent federal election, the Conservatives got 33% in New Westminster-Coquitlam, but their numbers were higher in the Coquitlam-Mallardville portion as opposed to the New Westminster portion. The Conservatives got around 35%, NDP 30% and liberals 25% so that means the NDP needs to get 2/3 of federal liberal voters to vote NDP if they want to win this, when in fact they will likely only get about half at the absolute most. This adds up to a close race, but a liberal win.
23 04 05 J OH KG
Oh, well people do know who Stewart is. That's not true that people don't know him. At the same time people know Thorne. Thorne can't govern. She actually voted to distribute Development Cost Charges onto the taxpayers of Coquitlam. Hejazi is a newcomer into local politics. He will take votes from both sides.
21 04 05 Nelson Muntz
At this point, I am leaning towards the NDP capturing this seat from the Liberals. Richard Stewart HAS been near invisible apart from the sexual harrassment allegations from Brenzinger. I see some people "blaming" the NDP for the allegations, but seriously, if a Liberal (at the time) accuses another Liberal of sexual harrassment, do you expect the opposition to simply ignore the issue? No chance, and the BC Liberals would do the same in return. Diane Thorne has been a good city councillor with a decent public profile which could give her the needed boost to unseat an incumbent. The population mix in Coquitlam Maillardville is a "middle-class" mix of families and small businesses for whom issues such as healthcare and education resonate. Should be an interesting riding.
17 04 05 SLMS
Richard Stewart is not a well-liked/well-known MLA. The every-day person walking down the street wouldn't even know what he looked like as most don't have a clue who he is. I have asked a number of people in the riding if they know who their MLA is and most think John Cashore is still sitting. And when you remind people about the Elaine Brezinger situation, people remember only his pitiful attempt to get sympathy by walking around with his canes. Recently he has been seen walking around with his cane at community events, but he has also been seen climbing a ladder outside his campaign office. John Cashore, who was and still is a well-liked and well-known MLA is supporting Diane, he is out on the door-step with her, and this is an endorsement people can respect. Richard Stewart, like the rest of the Tri-Cities MLA's, has been more interested in Richmond and RAV, than the Tri-Cities. Diane has a lot of support, just wait and see!
16 04 05 M. Lunn
With several polls showing the liberals around 46% and the NDP around 38-40% I think it is clear that most of the swing ridings in the Lower Mainland will stay liberal. The NDP may pick up some the swing ridings in the Interior and Island, but not Lower Mainland. Besides Richard Stewart is a reasonably well liked MLA so that will help. Add to the fact that the Conservatives won the majority of the polls in Coquitlam in the last federal election and only came close to losing the seat due to their poor showing in New Westminster
09 04 05 M. Lunn
For all those posting Green Party, The Green Party will not win any seats and certainly not this seat. The Liberals will likely hold this one since Richard Stewart is reasonably popular and many people feel sorry for what the allegations Elayne Brezinger falsely accused him of. Also in the most recent federal election, the Conservatives won most of the polls in Coquitlam while the NDP won most of the polls in New Westminster, so that is probably a good indication of how things will go in the next provincial election.
08 04 05 Kennith M. Schindler
The NDP have lost this seat thanks to nominating an old burnout. All their bucks come from Union hacks. Too bad. The liberals are quiet. Only page wide adds in the newspaper. You've got to have the bucks! Just look at the donor record. These guys can't get a penny out of folks. Wal-Mart, Zellers, CityBank... These are not people donating to them. It's money for money. People, I hope, are catching on.
02 04 05 Reality Check
Richard Stewart is one of the more vulnerable MLAs due to his rudeness and neglect of ordinary people who have concerns. Stewart supported school closures and said nothing when St Mary's Hospital was shut down -- a hospital which serves the catholic community upon which Richard has relied for support in the past. A vigorous NDP campaign can take him down.
Anyone who thinks the Greens have a shot, though, is living in La-La land. Michael Hejazi had less than ten people show up for his nomination meeting -- TEN PEOPLE! There was no nomination speech, just everyone arranging their chairs in a circle and talking.
Diane Thorne, the NDP candidate, has a high profile, a history of community involvement, and the tenacity needed to beat Stewart and overcome the Green vote-split.
28 03 05 Eugene Mills
This is a swing riding. We’ve got poor people, and rich people, and angry/happy people. Greens might just take this riding. That's right. The NDP will be right behind them the whole way, I'm sure, crying "bloody murder". I'd normally vote Liberal for Coquitlam, (a good middle of the road community) but the fellow who we elected last time hasn't done much in the ways of re-earning our support.
28 03 05 Pundit
Richard Stewart will win because the NDP will not have the votes in the GVRD to win many seats. The NDP numbers in the GVRD suck and only look to fall as the election day comes closer.
He should win because he is one the MLAs that understands the system the best and can get things done quickly for people that need issues dealt with. He is the sort of MLA that should be in cabinet
21 03 05 Jasmine K.
The candidates in this region are all "heavy hitters", if that's what you call them. I'm not sure why the NDP decided to drop a city councillor into this race, as she seems to have been doing such a good job at councillor, having been around for such a long time. MLA Stewart has kept his head really low these past few years, so there isn't much to say about him, except, where have you been? The Greens in this riding are showing up in the local rag often enough to give them an edge which they havn't had before. They have a young candidate which can't be too good, in terms of being viewed as a full alternative, but they are doing the work that needs to be done.
I guess the reform party and action party arn't going to run candidates here, or they will at the last moment.
09 03 05 Ja
I don't understand the people who are submitting saying that Richard Stewart has been invisable since elected. I have seen him at numerous events throughout the years, and he has become very involved in the community. I think that the election in this riding will be relatively clean, as he's already undergone hell due to lies and untrue allegations from the NDP. This riding will for the first time re-elect a non-NDP MLA.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
I will give the edge to the liberals since they are leading in the polls, although this one will likely go with the winner. Coquitlam-Mallardville is generally a middle of the road type riding that could really go either way. Besides Richard Stewart is reasonably popular so that should give him a 5% boost. Even though the NDP almost won this riding federally, most of their votes came from the New Westminster portion of the riding, while most of the polls in Coquitlam-Mallardville were won by either the Conservatives or Liberals.
27 02 05 Adam K
Stewart is a good MLA and at the very least will get some of the sympathy vote for the NDP's vicious and unfounded attacks against him. He will win this riding for sure.
27 02 05 Harold D.
I prediect a great Green boost thanks to the active environemetnal groups in Coquitlam - Maillardville (I agree with the last prediction, it is a long-shot). Havn't really heard all that much about the liberal who's running. Mabey he's playing quiet until the other parties have made their mistakes. I've seen that before. Durring the fed. election the conservative did not even attend the all candidates meeting. I guess it's a strategy. Not a good one. I also look forward to the NDP and Green candidates debating the issues.
01 03 05 Initial
Brenzinger never said that she lied. She withdrew her complaint when threatened with law suits. Stewart's name is tainted; the allegations of sexual harassment were withdrawn as a result of the bullying pressure applied by the BC Liberals.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
Richard Stewart, whose profile was raised last year for all the wrong reasons, is a safe bet for re-election. Despite being a swing riding, it looks to be headed BC Liberal on May 17 because of Stewart's hard work in helping get this part of Coquitlam back on its feet.
25 02 05 Initial
As a resident of this riding I know how Richard Stewart is really in touch with the local population, particularly the small French section of this riding in Maillardville. Furthermore, after being on the receiving end of harassment charges that in the end proved fruitless, Stewart is going to be a difficult man to attack.
With the coverage and sympathy he and his family received after his accuser admitted she lied, it's going to be tough to unseat a sentimental favorite. Further, the Coquitlam Maillardville area is an middle - upper middle class riding, primarily suburban that tends to vote incumbent if the economy is good. Although this will be a close race, I have to give the edge to the BC Liberals.
26 02 05 SLMS
This was a constituency held by longtime, well-liked NDP MLA John Cashore. Again, NDP was punished, they did not vote against the candidate. Diane Thorne is well-liked and well-known in Coquitlam. She is seen as a strong voice and willing to speak up and speak out, even against the party line. She has proven that many times in City Council. She is also a candidate that has Cashore's support. We can probably expect to see him out during the campaign. Diane Thorne, although new to provincial politics, can do the job in front of her, unlike the Liberal, who also has been ineffective and non-existent. The only time we've seen anything of him is during the Elaine Brezinger incident. He spoke out briefly after the Federal Election regarding the Riverview lands, but that was because he saw it was an important issue to the residents of Coquitlam, one that the Federal NDP candidate brought to the forefront. Richard Stewart should have grasped the issue of transportation and run with it in the legislature and done some good for Coquitlam, instead has remained silent, unlike Diane Thorne!
26 02 05 Manzere
I know that this seems like a "long shot". I'm often betting on the long shots at the racetrack. I'll explain. The Liberal in this seat, my hometown Coquitlam seat, has been somewhat invisible since the last election. He's been in the paper responding to the sexual harassment allegations, like the last prediction said, (I do remember that) but all in all, he's forwarded no projects in the community. He's quite close to the business community, in the corporate spheres, which is where he hails from. So, his communication background has been good for the purpose. If he had done more with the community I would be guess the win differently. Otherwise, in his politics, he's not really a politician.
The new democrat candidate, on the other hand, has done good things for the community. Some might argue that the candidate comes across as union oriented. Isn't this Dave Barrett's old riding? So, why did I click on the Green button? Well, they are coming up the middle to be honest. It's not common to see. Greens in this ridding have been getting ready for a while; have been putting on events, and such. Mabey it's all the talk about the One Tonne Challenge", and global warming. I'm surprised, because last time round I didn't I even see them campaigning. So, I'll wait and see who shows up at my doorstep first. Maybe I'll come back with a different guess at that time. That's exactly what it is. An educated guess. I stand ready to be corrected.
23-Feb-05 Chan Chan (Judy)
That's nice. Let us simply look at what happened last time.
Liberals: 56.97% (Has Richard Stewart, or the BC liberals hurt our Province?) I've lived in Coquitlam almost all my life. I don't remember the liberals doing anything big in the city. There were a couple pankacke breakfasts that they expected people to come to at the Parks, but we can't do much with that.
So, what would the NDP need to win? Last time round they received:
NDP: 21.91% So... I agree that thier vote should have been about 5 or 6% higher. They have been using the unions to really raise some heck for the Liberals. A lot of people were very mad at the NDP last time. I was. Ok, so give the NDP cadidate a %28 boost of confidence. And lets take a skimming off the top of the Liberals. So, give the liberals %48.00. Then there is the Greens: 12.44%. That is the BC average. I'm proud of the Greens. If the Greens are campaigning right, nice signs, news paper adds, they will grow becuase they are a popular appeal party, they want everyone's vote and might get it, if they campaign hard. It's crap to say that they split the left. No way. They get non-voters. Have you seen their federal campaign. It was geared at youth only. So, give them another 4% to account for growth (Political Economic Inflation) Then the BC Unity: 4.25% last time, I guess now the Democratic Reform. Who are they? Mabey they will drop. I have no idea with this party. I don't even know what they stand for. The numbers break down:
Liberal: 48%, NDP: 28%, Green: 18.44%, Reform: 3.25%
It's lodgical to asume that the Liberal will come out on top. Please don't get me wrong. I don't belong to either of these parties. I am saying that the chances of a community revolution is very unlikely when the economy is doing so well. Does personality count for anything? It's too early to say. Mabey one of the candidates has a great smile. We will see.
24-Feb-05 KH
The current BC Liberal MLA Richard Stewart seems to be a decent representative. The NDP has launched vicious personal attacks against him that Joy MacPhail had to apologize for and retract, so I don't see voters in the area rewarding them with a seat. Liberals win this one big.
22-Feb-05 Mosab F.
Richard Stewarts, the current MLA, is the only Liberal MLA left, running again, after all his peers in the area resigned, and did not re-enter their names. Why is he sticking around? He comes right from the business community and does not have a great track record. The NDP has nominated a city councilor, who has been on council for a long time. Why the councilor is now running for MLA I don't know. Maybe there is a great opportunity that I don't see. The Greens have nominated a student activist, Michael Hejazi. Greens did well in the riding last time, and they should continue to climb in the polls, but winning this time, I'm not so sure. I guess the Greens will win at some point. Maybe when the West Coast becomes a tropical bog, and the prairies, a dune desert. As for democratic reform, I'm not very sure. Their party really does not have an identity. Who knows how they will do.

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