Election Prediction Project

Port Moody-Westwood
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:35 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:55 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Liberal
Iain Black
Arthur Crossman
Your Party
James Filippelli
Green Party
Kathy Heisler
Karen Rockwell

BC Liberals:
CLARK, Christy
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:5.01%
Area (km2):84
Pop Density:589.40

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
North Vancouver-Seymour

15 05 05
Hahaha, this is hilarious. Ian Black losing? This really isn't rocket science. In 1996, the Liberals won this seat by about 6-7%. In 2001... WOW! The margin of victory increased multiple times! Ian Black losing? Not in Carole James' and her Glen Clark croonies' sweetest dreams.
13 05 05 Corbin
I agree that Ian Black is a complete screw up. Not to mention the fact that he has absolutely NO CAMPAIGN TEAM. He's gotta be hoping and praying that there isn't a Federal election called -- his whole sign crew, for instance, is James Moore's dad. James Moore's campaign team is Iain's team at the moment, and they probably haven't been putting much work in because they're setting up Moore's campaign.
This could set the stage for a Rockwell win, by a slim margin.
10 05 05 Call 911
Is there no end to the depths of Iain Black's campaign screw-ups? Today (May 10th), Rafe Mair kicked the stuffing out of the mighty Team Black for the sheer stupidity of campaign manager Doug Horn having called Rafe yesterday to claim the Liberals had an expert scientist to refute all of Rafe's fish-farm academics. Who could that be? Why, former Port Moody-Westwood Liberal riding president Ross Murray. Does Ross have a PhD in marine biology (or even political science for that matter)? Nope. Did Ross have a fish farm that went bust a decade ago? Apparently so. To Black and Horn, that would seem to qualify Murray as an expert ready to defend the Liberals fish-farming policies and take off Rafe at the knees! What a bunch of buffoons.
In what started out as a slam-dunk riding, anything less than a 20% win for Black will be an embarassing loss. But the combination of Liberal likely voters staying at home due Team Black's tomishandling (creating?) one problem after another to the complete lack of organization (the few existing campaign workers were frantically calling again last night trying to drum up someone -- anyone -- to help out on election day) may be enough to put the very well-oiled and union-pai-for Rockwell campaign over the top by a narrow margin.
05 05 05 Brian from Burnaby
It's a recipe for disaster. As an undecided voter, I'm sure glad I don't live in Port Moody or the Westwood Plateau. Who in the h-e-double-hockey-sticks would I vote for? Karen Rockwell, who wants to milk every taxpayer funded opportunity for every dime? Her track record as a union boss and as a city counsellor exposes her preference for taxing and spending. On the other hand, Iain Black has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has no idea about what he's stepped into. I was at the Arts theme candidates debate and heard him arrogantly "correct" two Liberal school trustees who called him on the carpet for blaming school boards for all the ills in the community. To paraphrase, Black stated that it would be his job as MLA to represent the decisions of Gordon Campbell to the Port Moody Westwood riding. For good measure, add in the scandal of Black bungling the BCTF office bugging scandal and today's press release appealing to all Liberal supporters to fill Black's vaccuum of campaign workers and you're hooped no matter which way you vote.
05 05 05 Koz
What is up with Black's two recent gaffes?
He's been getting some heat for not showing up for the teacher-sponsored debate, and now there is some controversy over whether or not he thought he office was bugged by a teacher organization and charged the same organization a de-bugging fee (see stories in local newspapers). It's like he's running against the techers and not the NDP! It will be interesting to see how these incidents play out and whether the NDP candidate can take advantage.
02 05 05
I think Karen Rockwell has a great chance in this riding, especially since Iain Black keeps showing his temper and mean streak at public meetings.
02 05 05 Keeping a Close Eye
As someone who is watching this election with a keen eye, I think that Karen Rockwell has a good chance of taking this riding, given that nobody knows Ian Black. I have attended a couple of the all candidates meetings, and I must say that Ian Black does not show well. As for the comment that Karen Rockwell has a bad record on Council, I don't know where that is coming from. As a resident of Port Moody, I know Karen to be hard working and to have a good attendance record, not only at council but also she is seen out and about in Port Moody a lot, attending all kinds of events. I think Ian Black better step up, lose his arrogant attitude and start getting on task if he expects to win this riding.
21 04 05 P.F.
Good post 16 04 05 - nice concrete points. I too think this riding will go Liberal, but I am not nearly as pessimistic. The NDP simply hasn't done anything to change their fortunes in this riding, and the Liberals are still riding fairly high. Rockwell is not going to attract waves of new voters, so I predict Black will win with a final vote of 60-70%. Black is not the strongest candidate, but as long as he runs a clean, gaffe-free campaign, he'll take this riding easily. For Rockwell to have a chance, she's going to have to stir things up and personalize this contest, making it more than just the Liberal Party v. the NDP Party.
16 04 05 CC
There is no way thise riding can be lost. The demographics alone are enough to keep any neo-conservative candidate elected. Not only that but Karen Rockwell has had an awfull record on council for never showing up to meetings.
16 04 05
For the province’s sake I hope I’m wrong, but it might be time to revise the predicted Liberal win for this riding. It what seems to be an escalating race for the bottom, Iain Black and Karen Rockwell have outdone themselves over the past week in showing voters that neither is particularly worthy of representing the riding. Neither has a grasp of what the real issues on the minds of local voters are, let alone any solutions. Maybe that’s why Dr. BC candidate Chris Simms dropped out of the race on Friday.
First, Rockwell defies Carole James and snatches the bonus she scooped as an employee of taxpayer funded ICBC. Rockwell is already on record that she plans to keep her taxpayer funded city council job in Port Moody even if she’s elected to the position of taxpayer funded MLA, all based on her self-proclaimed ability to “multi task”. More like “multi dip” into taxpayers’ pockets. Talk about jacking up the NDP tax and spend approach to a new high. Rockwell’s brochure boasts that she’s the vice-chair of Port Moody’s finance committee. Never mind that the feds kicked over the GST to municipalities and the BC Liberals likewise kicked over traffic fine revenue, city taxes are at an all time high and the original budget estimates for city projects have ballooned beyond recognition. Despite the best efforts of her and the union-backed mayor and council to keep their financial incompetence behind closed doors, the facts around Port Moody's version of the fast ferries are leaking out. Like more money thrown away on the CitySoup boondoggle. Or the fact that the city's new police station is already facing a million dollar overrun before the foundation has even been poured!
In any other riding, Rockwell’s bungling would be a gift horse to the Liberals. But not in Port Moody-Westwood. Last week, Iain Black was trumped when Rockwell’s eye catching brochure landed on local doorsteps the same day as Black’s paltry campaign sheet. Speaking of which, Black’s over-reaction to public criticism for not having any roots in the riding simply draws more attention to the fact that he isn’t part of the community fabric. According to his own information, Black's sole contact with the riding is limited to him having coached his kid’s soccer team last year. As for his community connection claim that he (along with more than 30,000 others) attended last year’s Golden Spike festival in Port Moody, it would be laughable if it wasn;t so pathetic. And even though hundreds of locals crammed the parking lot behind Port Moody’s old city hall for the Arts Festival last weekend, Black could count everyone who showed up for his campaign office opening on his finger and toes. Yikes! It seems he couldn’t even get out the riding executive, his campaign team, and their spouses for a public show of support. Even Christie Clark has jumped out of working in Port Moody-Westwood to focus her time and energy in New Westminster on Liberal Joyce Murray’s re-election bid.
With Black's razor thin campaign team being almost exclusively made up of federal Conservative MP James Moore’s team, what will happen to Iain’s already lackluster effort with an overlapping federal election during the month of May? Let’s hope the demographic makeup of the riding keeps the socialists away from the door.
01 04 05 Reluctant Liberal
Reliable sources are openly talking about Iain Black's concession that he's only planning on serving one term as a MLA, if elected, so he can tell his grand children about his accomplishment. What a waste of time for the people in the riding who might actually want proper representation in Victoria. And what about Christie Clark's claim about the job of MLA being too demanding for someone with a young child? Doesn't Iain Black have THREE kids that are even younger than Clark's media-prop son?
21 03 05 M. Lunn
The Liberals will win this again easily. They got 74% last time so they aren't going to lose that big a lead. True, they won't get 74% and there is no doubt some of that was due to Christy Clark's personal popularity, but the re-distribution of the boundaries taking out the Burnaby portion and the high-end homes recently built in the Westwood plateau means this is no longer a swing riding, but a safe liberal seat. Add to the fact the liberals are leading in the polls and strongest in the Lower Mainland. The NDP would need a 20 point lead before this riding would come into play.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
This one is a lock for the Liberals. Half the riding will vote Liberal just because they're sad to see their golden girl Christy retiring (for now). With the addition of the wealthy westwood plateau and the loss of the burquitlam portions, there's no real chance of an NDP win. I'd place this in the Liberals' top 20 seats.
Rockwell, while not a bad candidate, can't overcome the fact that this isn't NDP turf. The closest she'll get to the legislature is CPAC.
16 03 05 Cornpop
I think that this is a place where the BC Liberals could lose a seat. Without a candidate with lots of name recognition on either side, what will determine this riding is the overall campaigns of the parties. The NDP have to win some seats somewhere, and here is a place I think they can do it.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
It's stupid to refer to Karen Rockwell as a joke, she is a surprisingly strong candidate for the NDP and has become popular in Port Moody. Regardless of, when the Burnaby portion was removed from this riding it became a much stronger Liberal riding. The NDP would have to be ahead by 10 to 15 points province wide, or face a divided right to win. And while it can be argued that the Greens might attract some people who would vote Liberal before they would NDP the so called blue-green folks (remember the National Green's are lead by a former Tory), on balance they're a fairly centrist party and probably wouldn't help the NDP enough in that regard. The increased development on the Westwood Plateau probably means that the Liberal will win by 5 to 10 points considering current polling results and local trends, regardless the above average NDP candidate when considering the marginal status of this riding from an NDP prospective. Besides the Liberals are doing well in the lower mainland but that’s attributed to their support being concentrated in areas like Port-Moody Westwood, the North Shore, SW Vancouver and areas South of the Fraser, except Northern Surrey and Panorama Ridge. Barring a Liberal meltdown, this riding is staying in their column.
13 03 05
Karen Rockwell is completely unknown. She is not out in the community, and before a couple weeks ago, I think I may have heard of her once. Besides, this is a strong Liberal riding. Iain Black will be the next MLA for this riding.
27 02 05 LS
Karen Rockwell is a joke. She came dead LAST in her race for city council (she won by 4 votes) and is unknown in the area and invisible as a councillor. This riding is probably the safest BC Liberal riding in BC and has elected a Conservative federally. BC Liberal by a landslide!
24 02 05 Crossgrone
The demographics of this riding are strongly capitalist and/or conservative. There has never been much support for the NDP since the riding boundries were changed in 96
26 02 05 SLMS
Another strong candidate in Karen Rockwell. Rockwell has all the strength and tenacity that is admired in Clark, but has the community attachment that Clark doesn't. Rockwell has for many years in the community and advocated for improvements to Port Moody since being on City Council. The Liberals would likely take this one if Clark was still running, but none of the likely candidates have enough of a community oriented profile to catch the attention of the voters. In the Federal election, the NDP won the Port Moody polls, which is a good indication of which way the community is heading. The NDP will win this one.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Although traditionally a swing riding, with the development of high price housing in the Westwood Plateau this is now a pretty solid liberal riding. Considering Christy Clark had the third highest percentage win in 2001, this should be an easy liberal win. This is definitely in the top 10 most winneable liberal seats, so if they lose this one, they will lose the election big time. The NDP should focus on Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which they have a good chance of winning and Coquitlam-Mallardville, which is a swing riding.

Submit Information here
Return to - regional Index
Return to - 2005 British Columbia Prediction

© 1999-2005 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com