Election Prediction Project

Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:18 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:30 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Bill Aaroe
Lewis Dahlby
Mike Farnworth
BC Liberal
Greg Moore
Social Credit
Anthony Yao

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:6.92%
Area (km2):2000
Pop Density:25.21

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Maple Ridge-Mission
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver-Seymour
Port Moody-Westwood
West Vancouver-Garibaldi

13 05 05 Not on Herb
Uh... the Gordon Campbell event didn't draw people off the streets of PoCo -- it was a carefully orchestrated event by invitation only. There were no members of the public here, only Liberal hacks from surrounding ridings.
Is GC coming to PoCo because it can be won. Or is it because Liberal Supporter Len Bergquist is the owner of the Best Western where Campbell stopped and it was either (a) a cheaper place to hold a rally or (b) done bacause Bergquist invited them there.
Either way, Moore is toast and the best the Libs can hope for is that they keep Coq-Maillardville. They're not even much ahead in PoMo Westwood, where they should be.
11 05 05
Too bad Herb Walker didn't give the whole story. In fact, Campbell's stop in PoCo was a joint event featuring Iain Black, Richard Stewart, Harry Bloy, Patty Sahota, and Greg Moore. Given that, the numbers aren't overly impressive. Anyone who lives here will tell you this riding is going NDP. Farnworth is popular and his signs are everywhere. With less then 1 week to go, there are still hardly any Liberal signs. With the latest poll showing the Libs 45 NDP 40 across BC, it's clear that Farnworth is headed to a 50% plus win in this traditional NDP seat.
09 05 05 Herb Walker
Just had to comment on a previous post that said Campbell wouldn't go anywhere near Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.
Well, on Thursday, Campbell did come to Port Coquitlam and the newspapers report that he spoke to a crowd of over 200 people - over 5 times the crowd of 40 that met Carole James, earlier in the campaign.
The Liberals are really going after this riding, and I think they'll get it on May 17th.
05 05 05
Greg Moore is toast here and the central Liberal campaign knows it. That's why with only 12 days to go, they are trying to pour everything into holding Coquitlam-Maillairdville. The latest evidence is the Chamber of Commerce all candidates meeting held on May 5. I don't think I have seen a candidate get so beat up as Moore did. With a meeting being organized by a Liberal friendly group, you would expect him to do well. Yet, he got hammered on BC Rail, Health Care, Education and broken promises. He said many times that he didn't know about a particular issue and other times said he disagreed with his own leader. He is way over his head. Farnworth, in contrast, was calm, cool and the crowd favourite. He was very confident in his answers and provided good respones on economic questions and others. Stick a fork in it, this one is done!
05 05 05 Elmer Fudd
Are the Libs seriously even going to win here. Not if you ask Greg Moore himself -- he's already openly talking about running for Mayor next November... jeesh.
Mike is the only serious candidate in this election: he's the only one with sign presence, he's the only one organized, and he's the only candidate who appears competent enough to take on the job.
Given his performance at debates, the only thing that Greg Moore seems capable of doing is being a punching bag for the NDP.
03 05 05
9th highest NDP vote in the province in 2001 equals solid NDP win in 2004.
03 05 05
Greg Moore's campaign has run out of momentum (and money). They have very few signs and have taken to putting them on empty lots and public property. The NDP continues to dominate in signs and keeps on getting more and more. On Western Drive, a main route, and a swing area of the riding: NDP signs out number Liberal signs 20-1. The Liberals have no hope. There are only two places in the entire city they can win: Citadel Heights and Blakeburn, which is a small area compared to the rest. Even there, they appear to be falling behind. Greg Moore did NO mail-out to Citadel, but Farnworth has and is campaign there heavily. This is evident by his signs in that area. Furthermore, Carole James strong performance in the leader's debate will help solidify this riding. I also hear that the Liberals have cut bait here and are trying to hold Coquitlam Maillardville, which might explain why with less then 2 weeks to go, Campbell hasn't step foot anywhere near this riding.
01 05 05 A. Vancouverite
The right-wing vote split in 1996 wouldn't have been enough to elect the Liberal candidate. In any case it sounds as if the difficulties of Greg Moore will likely hurt any attempt he has as an underdog in winning the riding. Anyhow, I'll predict a 5-10% victory for Mike Farnworth.
29 04 05 Gary Larson
The only reason Mike Farnworth and the NDP won this riding in 1991 and 1996 was a right wing vote split. Had it not been for Unity Leader Chris Delaney, the Liberal tally here in the last election would probably have been about 7 points higher. That would have put Karn Manhas just 5-6 points behind his party, making this riding a key swing this time around.
With no right-wing candidate running to take away BC Liberal votes this time, Greg Moore should win a close one for the Liberals on May 17th.
28 04 05
The truth here is that local candidates will matter very little, though the NDP has a strong one in Farnworth.
In 2001, the NDP pulled 12% higher then the provincial average. The Liberals pulled 12% lower then the provincial average.
With polls showing the NDP in the high 30s to low 40s and the Libs in the low to mid 40s, this one is a NDP lock.
27 04 05 Gil Bang
Anyone who thinks that Greg Moore is going to win mustn't even live in the riding. Look around. Mike Farnworth signs everywhere -- Greg is getting killed in the sign war -- and Greg has no stronghold of visible support anywhere.
On CKNW, Greg came off as a lightweight and Mike clearly had him on a few occasions: in particular, Greg's glaring lack of knowledge about the decisions surrounding skytrain (he's on council, he should know) was rebuffed by Mike: "Greg, it is clear from listening to you that you have no idea what your talking about." On top of that, Greg made obviously outlandish promises such as bringing skytrain to PoCo.
At an all candidates meeting on April 26th, Greg Moore got clobbered. He was unable to answer a single question and started yelling at audience members at one point. Mike, in contrast, was cool, calm and collected. Greg Moore is particularly weak on the economy, which is supposed to be the Liberals' major issue -- Mike clobbered him again and again.
Greg has no support, no visible campaign organization, and he's getting destroyed at public debates. This is an NDP riding anyway, but the only way the Libs could win would be to run a strong local candidate. Greg Moore is not that candidate.
26 04 05
After having attended the first local all-candidates meeting this evening, I'm ready to call this for Farnworth and the NDP. I have seen many debates, but few have been so disasterous for the Liberals as this one. Greg Moore was very weak. He made false statements that were ridiculous (eg: claiming 400 million school days were lost to strikes under the NDP) and also said he knew "nothing about" the fact that 12yr olds can now work in BC and also said he disagreed with Gordon Campbell taking away audio books from blind people, but couldn't then answer why he was running for them. He stumbled on education, health, BC Rail, the Doug Walls affair, etc. After the event, he left VERY quickly. It was a horrible performance by him. Mike Farnworth was excellent, he answered questions very well and kept the Liberals on the ropes the entire night. Greg also could not explain his hypocrisy of taking money from the Labour movement. He's in serious trouble. This on top of a story of a Port Coquitlam couple who's father had his oxygen taken away from him by Campbell in the Vancouver Province newspaper. This riding has been called for the NDP. It's clear that's the result were headed to.
25 04 05 Trevor Newman
After a slow start in the sign campaign, Greg Moore signs seem to appear out of nowhere on a daily basis, an indication that he is gaining momenteum. By contrast, the NDP seems stalled at the number they had last week.
Everyone is talking about the CKNW debate last Friday where Greg Moore won a clear victory over Mike Farnworth with many memorable lines that left the former Cabinet Minister flustered and without a response.
I predict an upset in this riding.
25 04 05 S.
I am a bit supprise that 'election prediction' has already put up a prediction for this seat. I understand that this seat has been traditionally a NDP seat decades ago, but using past history to determine electoral out-come in a riding that has seen many development is a bit unreliable. Even if the liberals lost 10% to the NDP, you still have to consider the role of the green party, and voters who voted for the unity party. It is very ill-conceive that right-wing voters of the unity party would vote for the NDP. Secondly, how strong will the greens be in this election? What the NDP gained from the Liberal does not mean they will have enough to overcome the strength of the Green, who may drain some (although very little) vote to allow a NDP victory, and where the unity voters will park their vote will most likely benifit the liberals.
The election will be tough for both NDP and liberals, but i predict that the margin of victory will be no greater than 5%.
25 04 05 S.
News from the water coolers.
Regarding the election signs.
Apparently, the NDP have called every voter in this riding before the election have started, (and also in other ridings), seeking out NDP voters. If they support NDP, they asked them if they could display the NDP lawn sign at their properties.
It could mean 2 things, one that NDP supporters are very determine to win, or the houses with the lawn sign are the bulk of NDP voters who votes NDP at the ballot box. Well, elections are won by people who win the votes of people who don't have lawn signs in the front, so reports of NDP lawn signs strength should be analysis with a grain of salt.
Again as always, this is a very tight seat which could go liberal or NDP with less than 5% difference seperated between these two parties.
24 04 05
It's funny that some Liberals think Greg won the cknw debate. I would say the debate, which really won't effect the outcome of the election here, was a draw. Basically, the two talked over each other the whole time. I would say that Moore has been damaged by the story in the Vancouver Sun yesterday that challenged Moore on his hyprocritical stance of having taking thousands of dollars and support from Labour Unions for his final attempt at City Council and then claiming the NDP was run by big labour. Perhaps most damaging was his answer to this, where he stated, that city council in poco doesn't really effect anyone. Wow! And he's running on his record as a City Councillor. Seems a little odd. This riding will be a big win for the NDP. There signs are everywhere and the Liberals hardly have any. PoCo has a long NDP history and in the 2001 landslide still was the 9th best result for the NDP out of 79. NDP gain.
23 04 05 Charles Jackson
The Pitt River Bridge announcement yesterday changed the dynamic of this race. Moore's strong performance in a debate yesterday on the radio has proved he cannot be taken lightly. Also, Carole James' lack of action on Rollie Keith's public admiration of Slobadan Milosevic will damage Farenworth. I predict upset here.
22 04 05 Adam G.
Greg Moore DOMINATED Mike Farnworth (or is that FarnSworth as Ms. James calls him?) on CKNW this morning. Best line of the show came after Moore got Farnworth to (finally) admit he does not even live in the riding. In fact, Mike left Port Coquitlam for East Vancouver six weeks after the 2001 Election and "may soon" be buying a place in PoCo. Mike said he had to leave BC to find a job. In response, Greg then said, "You were typical of the people leaving BC in 2001 to find a job and now that the economy is better you return." Mike had his facts wrong and came across stiff while Greg came off confident and on the offensive. GREG MOORE WILL WIN THIS RIDING!
21 04 05
With the writ being dropped it's now time for campaigns to put up or shut up. It's clear now that Mr.Farnworth is going to score a big win. His signs on private property overwhelm the handful the Liberals have. Farnworth has also been all over the media, doing interviews and speaking on behalf of the party. Furthermore, while Carole James has already visited Port Coquitlam, apparently the Premier will not be stopping here.
21 04 05 David Graham
Before this campaign began, I would have said this riding was too close to call or maybe leaning NDP, but after the first couple days it seems Moore's campaign is far ahead of Farnworth's.
Yesterday, I was astonished that the NDP only got 30-40 people out to a rally with Carole James at the Courthouse. Quite a pathetic showing if you ask me.
I haven't seen Farnworth anywhere and Moore seems to have a much stronger presence. He's at every major community event, I saw him at the West Coast express Tuesday morning and his team is out rallying on the street quite frequently. I've also had a flyer in the mail and a magnet and fact sheet left at my door. No printed materials from Farnworth.
Moore's doing everything he can to win and I think he'll come out ahead of Farnworth on E-day.
17 04 05 No More, YEAH!
Greg Moore ran for City Council 3 or 4 times, and finally won, and not even through his first term and thinks he should be a provincial MLA. He kept running and running, making the residents of Port Coquitlam think he really wanted to work for them and he is bailing before his first term is over. And, he sought out the support of the Unions and Labour Council, which he got, saying he was for the working people. But he has only proven he is an opportunist, which he is well-known as. Mike Farnworth on the other hand has a lot of credibility and has a proven record of working hard as a City Councillor and MLA. People, including Liberals are thrilled he is back. Manhas has done nothing for the community and the fact that he endorses Moore, is the same as his family endorsing him. It shows that Moore just doesn't have the support that Mike does. Farnworth is going to Victoria.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Considering Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is more working class than wealthy area like Port Moody-Westwood I would have thought the NDP would have done better here and the conservatives would be weaker. Although a lot of the strong showing from the conservatives may have been due James Moore being popular as opposed to his party since I know many people who live in the federal riding of Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam who voted conservative solely because of James Moore and would have voted liberal had they lived in any other riding. Still considering that many federal liberals will go liberal provincially, I think the liberals might have a chance of pulling it off, although not a very good chance. Mike Farwarth used to be extremely popular and I am not sure whether people have forgotten about him or whether he still maintains his strong popularity. Also most of the suburban ridings have seen large changes in demographics since 1996, which could swing the riding either way.
14 04 05
There is no way that the NDP will lose their 9th best seat in 2001 this time around.
10 04 05 Alex W.
Mike Farnworth is respected and liked, but he's no superstar. Greg Moore is liked and respected, but he's no superstar. They're both very solid candidates, and they will/do represent their parties well, and they can both do a decent job as MLA. I personally predict that Moore will win because the NDP are severely hobbled by their very weak leader. The BC Liberals are coming on strong (in spite of the federal sponsorship, cross-over branding problem). Also, PoCo is becoming a wealthier suburb. The federal Conservatives won most Port Coquitlam polls last year(I worked on that campaign), and I think Moore can win, though not by much.
02 04 05 Slam Dunc
Mike Farnworth in a walk.
This election will likely be about the party and not the local candidate. PoCo is an NDP town, end of story. But even if it were about the candidate, Mike Farnworth is extremely well-liked and well-respected in the community and has a record of getting things done. Greg Moore is running on his 'strength' as a local candidate, and is all but obscuring the fact that he is a BC Liberal. But let's look at the 'strength' of this local candidate. Ran 4 times for council, won only the last time where, as he correctly boasts, he topped the polls. But... didn't he receive labour endorsement? Yes he did, by running AGAINST Liberal cuts, Greg won Labour endorsement and a large chunk of votes needed to top the polls. So... he has 2 years on council and has not yet even completed a term. Accomplished? Here are his accomplishments: Oh yes, he did, at the last minute after participating in months of deliberations, back out of voting on putting a private liquor store in a residential neighbourhood because the applicants donated to his provincial campaign. Smooth move. Elmer Fudd never did get the Wabbit, and Greg Moore won't win PoCo for the Liberals. Hell, he'll be lucky to get another term on council.
18 03 05
Vaughn Palmer is calling this seat a NDP lock, along with New West, in his column in the Vancouver Sun.
10 03 05
I read in the latest local papers that the PoCo nomination was the largest since the 80s. With Mike Farnworth having won the nomination, I would say the NDP is a lock. Considering how close it was last time around (relative to the rest of the province) and that the Liberal candidate has got himself into some hot water around around a supporting a liqour store application into a residential neighbourhood, because the owners donated a bunch money to his campaign, I would say this seat is a lock for the NDP. And it would be regardless of who the candidates are, but Farnworth is a net plus for the NDP and Moore is a net even or possibly negative for the Liberals, although it's harder to be a worse negative than Karn Manhas. I predict: NDP- 50%, Liberal 38%.
12 03 05 Take a Look Around
Anyone who thinks Greg Moore is going to win is in dreamland.
Firstly, many high profile Liberals don't even support Greg, due to a personal dislike of his ego. It is interesting to note that 'prominent' PoCo Liberals endorsed Irene Barr's candidacy for the nomination in nearby Port Moody Westwood, but can't even bring themselves to endorse Greg Moore, who is already nominated.
Secondly, most voters greatly disapprove of the Liberals and this is made even worse by the dismal performance of Karn Manhas. Yet Greg Moore doesn't even seem to get it: he proudly states (with a straight face) that he intends to be every bit as good an MLA as Karn. That will not please voters who are tired of looking for Karn.
Thirdly, the demographic hasn't changed all that much since 2001 (well, except for even more poor people, which doesn't benefit the Liberals). And, to the out-of-towner who points to new developments on Burke Mountain, I'd like to point out that there hasn't been any development of Burke Mountain as of yet. So, unless the Liberals have a master plan of registering deer, squirrels, and raccoons to vote, Burke Mountain won't yield a Liberal victory.
Look at an electoral map. Better yet, look at it poll by poll... Is there any way that you see a Liberal victory in the works? I thought not...
08 03 05
As a resident of PoCo, I can say that the Liberals' hopes that rich people have moved into PoCo are not going to come through. The NDP will pile up massive majorities in the city centre, northside, mary hill and kilmer. The only competitive area is citadel and the blakeburn area. Even there, I expect a 50/50 NDP-Liberal split. And despite what has been said here, there are no rich people on Burke Mountain, because Burke Mountain has yet to be even developed. A lot of wishful thinking seems to be at play from the Liberal camp. I would also point out that the so-called super popular Liberal candidate ran for City Council 3 times before he won, and ONLY won because he received the endorsement of the Labour Movement. I wonder if union members will be voting for him now as a Liberal Candidate. Let's also not forget that he has yet to compete even one term on City Council, where his record has been abysmal. The most recent Oxford Liqour store controversy is playing big, where Greg at the last minute excused himself from a vote because of he was receiving financial kick-backs from the liqour store owners. The rest of council voted one way, while Greg has to try and spin his way out of this scandal. NDP Solid win.
08 03 05
Bottom Line: In 2001, this was the Liberals' 70th LOWEST result and the NDP's 9th HIGHEST result. There is no way this constituency will go anything but NDP.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
Although looking at the previous numbers, one would think this would be an easy NDP win, I think there are two factors they are ignoring. Greg Moore is a city councillor and has a strong appeal which neither Karn Manhas or Irene Barr had in the previous elections. In addition, a lot will come down to whether Mike Farnwarth chooses to run here or not. If Farwarth runs, the NDP will win, if he doesn't run the liberals will win. Around 40% will vote NDP no matter what, and 40% will vote liberal no matter what, so the candidate will make a difference in affecting the undecided votes. Add to the fact that Chris Delaney, leader of the Unity Party got 10% last time and isn't running again means the liberals should pick up most of the Unity votes.
08 03 05 Not Impressed with Karn
Actually, Karn has been one of the most invisible MLAs this riding has ever seen. It took him over 6 months to open a constit office, and since then, it has only been open by appointment only. So much for open-ness and accountability! Many people -- even those who support the Liberals -- acknowledge that Karn is not available to his constituents. And Greg Moore says he'll be as good an MLA as Karn! 'Nuff said.
BTW, MIke Farnworth has been overseas for the last three years working on international democracy projects so it's not surprising that he doesn't have a house in PoCo yet -- he's been back for only a few months. But in that few months he has been very visible in the community.
Even if the NDP were only to get 10 seats, this would be one of them!
27 02 05
The bottom line is that in this constituency, who the candidates are will mean little. This is the 9th strongest NDP seat in the province and will be won back by the NDP on election day. Even still, the Liberal MLA has accomplished nothing and the Liberal candidate has yet to even complete one term on City Council. The NDP candidate is well know and popular.
26 02 05 adam
the riding is going to be one riding to watch on election night.mike farnsworth was popular here locally and had one of the better showing among the ndp candidates that lost and will be coming up against somebody i knew has my assistance basketball high school coach greg moore who is now city councilor.the only way the liberals would win this riding is probably due to allot of wealthy people moving into the riding.i think the only safe liberal seat in this area is port moody westwood.i will predict that the liberal will win relection with 44 seats ndp 35 seats.
27 02 05 SZ
Last election, when the BC Liberals thumped the NDP province wide 58%-26%, the results here were BC Liberal 45% to the NDP's 33%. Only a 12% difference. The Liberal MLA has done nothing over four years to stand out and has chosen not to run. The Liberal candidate is a City Councillor who has yet to complete one term. With the province wide results now standing around 44%-40%, this riding is a lock for the NDP.
27 02 05 Matt N
I hate to say it - by this NDP has-been will become an MLA again. He's one of those guys that, love him or hate him, is pleasant and is seen to be doing a good job for his constituents.
08 01 05 Paul
Greg Moore is a well-known City Councillor who topped the polls in the last election and has a strong following in the community. He matches the majority demographic in the riding (young families) perfectly. Although the NDP Nomination has not been decided yet, I'd say either candidate is has strong drawbacks for the NDP. Mike Farnworth closed his Constituency office the day after he lost in 2001 and bolted to Vancouver. Those who say the current LiberalMLA for being invisible should look first to Farnworth who hasn't been seen here for the past four years. As Farnworth has spent most of his time abroad in other countries, how can he possibly have a grasp of the local issues? This weakness will definetly come out during the campaign up against Greg Moore, a strong local candidate. Karam Singh Dhanwant has no name recognition and no experience with no history or following in the community. He ran for Mayor and couldnt even get 100 votes. Need I say more.
This race will be close, so close I think that the quality of the local candidate will matter and will give the Liberals the edge. The demographics have changed. Lots of young families have moved into the riding who will relate to and appreciate the service of Greg Moore and should contribute to a rising BC Liberal vote. Also don't forget the development of Burke Mountain which is bringing in a large mostly-Liberal demographic.
Liberal win.
02 03 05 am
this riding like the rest of the province went liberal in 2001.this has usely been an ndp stronghold the only other time where ndp lost this seat was in 1975 when premier dave barrett lost it to the social credit party.the only way i see this riding going liberal is because there has been allot of new and wealthy people moving into the riding over the past couple of years.
07 03 05
The NDP have officially nominated Mike Farnworth as their candidate. Farnworth won the nomination quite handily. There were almost 400 people at the PoCo NDP nomination meeting, compared to the less than 100 at the BC Liberal nomination meeting. I'm told it was the largest turn-out and nomination meeting seen in about 20 years. This constituency is going NDP in a big way. Solid win, about 50% of vote.
24 02 05 Mazurka
I have met Karn Manhas, MLA and I believe that he has a magnificent social conscience and that he has served and continues to serve the people of the riding very well. The new candidate for the BC Liberals, Greg Moore, is a highly respected city councillor. Mike Farnworth on the other hand has not even lived in the riding for over three years, need I say more.
25 02 05 initial
Although Farnsworth will likely remind some voters of the "bad old days" that caused the backlash against the NDP, he should still carry the riding, barring a major foul up. Although not as popular as he used to be, he'll be facing a brand new candidate, who would really need to be some kind of super campaigner in order to hold this one for the Libs.
As a long-time resident of Port Coquitlam, I am confident this riding will be a NDP win. Some has said that the riding has changed since the 90s. This is true. Re-distribution removed Westwood Plateau from the riding, leaving the city of Port Coquitlam. Port Coquitlam is a traditional NDP stronghold. Vaughn Palmer in the Vancouver Sun called this one an "in the bag" for the NDP. I agree. Mike Farnworth is very popular. Last election, people voted against the NDP, not him. Deeper analysis reveals this: Last election, the Liberals out-polled the NDP 60%plus to 18% in the Suburbs. Even still, Mike Farnworth had the ninth highest vote for the NDP in the province and the BC Liberal had the 70th lowest result. With the polls province wide showing a dead heat, this seat is a for sure for the NDP. Bottom line: If you believe the NDP will only win ten seats on election day, this is one of them.
23-Feb-05 Mick F
One of the strongest NDP seats in the province. With popular former MLA Mike Farnworth the NDP Candidate and a largely unknown Liberal candidate seeking to replace this area's invisible current MLA, this seat is a no-brainer. NDP win with around 50%.
24-Feb-05 KH
This riding has changed a lot since the "glory days" of the NDP in the 1990s. Lots of development, lots of change, and this can only help the Liberals. They'll win this seat.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
This is another traditional NDP seat that will return to the NDP on election night.
22-Feb-05 SLMS
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mtn went to the Liberals in the last election, as the Province did, only to punish the NDP. The Liberal MLA has been non-existent, not effective and has decided not to run again. The Riding is ready to forgive the NDP and bring back a NDP MLA. Mike Farnworth is running for the Nomination. A very popular MLA and Minister, has a proven record and seen as a honest, accessible guy. He will win the Riding for the NDP.

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