Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:37 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:34 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Democratic Reform BC
Elayne Brenzinger
The Platinum
Melady Belinda Earl
Neil Gregory Magnuson
No Affiliation
Joe Pal
Bruce Ralston
BC Liberal
Barbara Steele
Green Party
Roy Whyte

Democratic Reform BC:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:0.26%
Area (km2):29
Pop Density:1630.00

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
New Westminster
Surrey-Green Timbers

16 05 05 CantancoRich
Bruce Ralston will win with 55 to 60 per cent of the vote in Surrey Whalley.
The LIberal candidate - what was her name, Barbara McCallum-Steele? - will get 25 to 30 per cent. Roy Tyler Whyte (Green) will get less than 10 per cent and Elayne (my staff told me he didn't really pinch my bum) Brenzinger will be lucky to get 100 votes. But she's just running for the severance.
Notes for AP: Bruce Ralston was elected to council twice, not once. He was instrumental in bringing a $1 million grant from VanCity to the Pheonix Society. Bruce is not a labour lawyer, although I'm not quite sure what's wrong with representing workers. And finally, you're probably referring to Tim Bailee in your activists comment. But Tim didn't even seek the nomination for Surrey Whalley. There were three nominated candidates, and Bruce Ralston was only four votes away from getting every vote. I'd say he has the backing of the membership.
16 05 05 TL
Barbara Steele will win this riding.
I say this because she is opposed to the Vancouver 4 pillar program which is highly unpopular in this riding, while the NDP support it.
She has the endorcement of high profile MP Chuck Cadman, and her support from the Mayor and the Chair of the School Board are giving her the needed momentum to return this riding to the Liberal fold.
Bruce Ralston is a lawyer whom many in the unions know, but who those not in a union despise his record for writing off checks to his union bosses.
Gordon Campbell has promised an expansion of Surrey Memorial Hospital, and also to build a new hospital in Surrey. Although neither are in the riding they greatly affect the people who live here and provide many jobs.
This may have looked like a solid NDP place on day 1 but believe me this riding knows that Barbara Steele will get the job done and make Whalley a better place for all.
14 05 05 M. Lunn
Elayne Brezinger is going to lose big time. This is the NDP's third strongest riding on top of the two they won last time around. The Liberals should come in second followed by the Greens and Elayne Brezinger in fourth. Most people in this riding don't even know who Elayne Brezinger is.
05 05 05 Lokey
Some say this will go NDP...well...I must disagree.
Mr. Ralston does not appeal and is not well known.
In the riding Mr. Ralston had a strong start giving him a boost but the momentum from the Steele campaign is building and is coming up.
I must also point out that Mr. Roy White, the Green Candidate, has taken some of the glimer away from the NDP here, and he is moving stronger, although he has a very small team he still does pose as a potential split vote.
One thing is certain, Brenzinger is out of the race and will come in fourth possition.
I must say that Steele is well known, and her campaign is doing to well to say she can lose. This will be close, but not rule in favour of Mr. Ralston.
02 05 05
Of the Surrey ridings, this is definitely the strongest NDP one. It is probably the third strongest NDP riding in the Lower Mainland after the two Vancouver ridings they already hold. The only reason parties on the right win here federally is in 1993, people voted Reform simply to throw out the Tories, not because they supported their policies, while this went Reform/Alliance in 1997 and 2000 due to Chuck Cadman's strong work on tackling the crime problem which is a major issue in this area. Likewise Chuck Cadman was re-elected as an Independent while the Conservative candidate came in fourth. In fact I suspect Chuck Cadman would have done worse if he stayed with the Conservatives than ran as an Independent. In Surrey, the liberals will definitely win Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Tynehead, and Surrey-White Rock. The battlegrounds will be Surrey-Newton where the NDP has a slight edge but Igali's star candidacy could tip the scale in favour of the liberals, Surrey-Panorama Ridge which will likely stay NDP, but could go liberal since they have an Indo-Canadian candidate this time around and by-elections almost always go to opposition parties, and Surrey-Green Timbers, which will likely go NDP, but Brenda Locke still might win.
30 04 05 Fabian B
Surrey Whalley is a slam dunk for the NDP and nothing Barbara Steele says or does will change things, in my view. Surrey Whalley may be called The City Centre by Surrey City Hall but it is still plagued by serious drug and crime issues. Thus far, there has little to no economic success that the Liberals can point to here. Even the now succesful (and NDP inspired) Central City Commercial Tower is located in the neighbouring riding of Surrey-Panorama Ridge. Whalley has totally missed out on the economic boom that Premier Campbell has been touting which will hurt Liberal attempts to appeal to Whalley residents.
As a result, Surrey Whalley will definitely go NDP on May 17. The incumbent candidate--former Liberal Elaine Brenziger--has a credibility problem with voters and had no chance of winning. As a result, Ralston will win handily. The fact that he ably served as a councillor on Surrey City Hall in the late 1980's through to 1996 will help him immensely with name recognition. One final point of referrence: I drove through a small part of this riding this Friday(April 29) and did not see a single Liberal campaign sign on private property. In contrast, there were at least 4-5 separate NDP signs on the lawns of private homes. The only Liberal signs I witnessed were on major publio roads like 128 Street which anyone can erect. This tells me all there is to know--that the Liberals have little support here. Frankly if Whalley doesn't revert back to the NDP, it will be a major upset.
According to the latest Ipsos Reid poll released this Friday, the Liberals lead the NDP by 53-33% in the Eastern Suburbs(ie: the parts of the Lower Mainland outside of Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster.) However, this huge margin doesn't mean much in such a poor riding like Whalley which has a staunch pro-NDP blue collar constituency much like Vancouver Mt-Pleasant. The riding is still very poor and has serious social problems; any talk of an economic boom rings hollow to most voters here. I predict an NDP victory here by a margin of 15-20% at least.
21 04 05 S. Bains
AP should be working on Barb Steele's campaign if he is not already - he would be a great campaign manager! However, the numbers do not lie and the demographics in this riding clearly favour the NDP.
Barb Steele may indeed have enjoyed "high profile" appointments to various committees of Council, but the reality is that no one in the community knows anything about these committees or who sits on them. Steele has one of the lowest levels of name recognition among the current councillors and will be watching all the fun in Victoria from her coucil seat - at least until the municipal election in November.
17 04 05
Brenzinger never lied. She withdrew her complaint when threatened with law suits. The allegations of sexual harassment were withdrawn as a result of the bullying pressure applied by the BC Liberals.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Elayne Brezinger will lose this riding and lose it big. Based on past numbers this would likely go NDP, but I am not sure how big a factor the local candidates will play since both Bruce Ralston and Barbara Steel are reasonably high profile candidates who can draw people who might be reluctant to vote NDP or Liberal over to them. Even though I hate to admit the NDP will likely win this since I am a liberal, at least I know Elayne Brezinger will be defeated no matter what happens.
02 04 05 AP
Bruce Who?
Everyone knows Barbara Steele, the City Councillor that chairs the police committee, is a member of the Whalley Business Improvement Association and the Surrey Crime Prevention Society.
She's won 3 successive elections to council and Mayor McCallum (who is also a hero in Whalley) has given her more important portfolios as she has proven herself capable.
Barbara has also been tough on crime and can actually show results, whereas Chuck Cadman has a good message, but has not been able to impliment his ideas. Look at the number of crack houses that have been torn down by the city and the way the zero-tolerance on crime has been effective.
What most people don't know about Barbara would make her a better NDP candidate than Rolston! Before she was elected to council she worked with the Public Trustee's office and had clients that were drug users, prostitutes, etc. on the Downtown East Side and in Whalley. And she is well respected as a supporter of all the social agencies in the area.
She's also a mom who raised 3 kids in the riding.
Ralston has only been elected to civic office once and failed to win re-election. He has no history with social services (other than the money that VanCity shareholders give). Worst of all, he's a labour lawyer.
And the rumour is that the local NDP "activists" that worked with Joan Smallwood over the years have abandoned the Ralson campaign because of the way he won his nomination over the more popular Tim Bailey.
28 03 05 S. Bains
No contest - Bruce Ralston. Why Surrey Councillor Barb Steel would take the plunge in a seat she has no hope of winning is puzzling. After all, she finished second to last among all councillors in the municipal election in 2002, so it is not as if she is the strongest or most well-known of Councillors. Maybe she just wants to raise her profile for the November, 2005 municipal election? Brenzinger will poll less than 100 votes and then slip, thankfully, into obscurity.
22 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Elaine Brenzinger obviously realized that she couldn’t win re-election in this riding as a BC Liberal years ago. Her embarrassing false sexual harassment accusation of a former colleague destroyed her credibility both within and outside the party. She fled to the Democratic Reform Party: a party that will not be a serious contender in this election and that will do nothing to boost her vote. In fact, aside from simply being an incumbent, Brenzinger will probably do nothing to boost the DRBC vote! Her behavior has been contemptible, and her constituency work has been either invisible beneath the scandal or virtually non-existent. There is no reason why the electorate should reward her with re-election. Clearly the past results favor the NDP in this riding, which makes Bruce Ralston the favorite to win Surrey-Whalley.
20 03 05 Cornpop
The headlines on May 18th in Surrey-Whalley will read "Brenzinger sent packing". Her chances of re-election in this riding are just as likely as the Republicans winning here. Her gaffe with the wrongful sexual assault accusation, as well as her outbursts to people in the Liberal cabinet have ended her chances of re-election. The big question is who will win here? You're guess is a good as mine.
15 03 05 interested voter
Libs have nominated fairly high profile City Councillor Barb Steele to run. Only thing for sure is that Brenzinger will run 3rd...maybe 4th if a Green is in the running.
14 03 05 JC
Brenzinger is the sitting MLA and she has a much better chance of winning here then Tom Morino in Malahat-Juan De Fuca. I say this because she's an incumbet and is well known in the riding I would assume, She did consult her constituents before joining the party and she could get rewarded for doing just that. I say Brenzinger will win this one but It will be very very close.
13 03 05
There is no way that Brenzinger will get elected this time around, owed completely to the stunt she pulled last spring. Her credibility is non-existent, and her association with the DRBC party has made voters question it and Marino's credibility too. I am questioning how she could even THINK to run again. She accused an MLA of sexually harrassing her, and then told us that she was "mistaken". This riding won't elect it's incumbant, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
08 03 05 Sacha P.
Brenzinger has no chance - anybody with half a memory realizes that she's one step lower on the political credibility rung than Hedy Fry for falsely accusing Richard Stewart (MLA for Coquitlam) of sexual harassment. The Liberals have no chance in this riding which should go solidly towards the NDP. Brenzinger will just split the minority of Liberal voters in this riding.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
Elayne Brezinger has done absolutely nothing for the community, so she will be defeated. Since this is probably the strongest NDP riding in Surrey, the NDP will cruise to victory. If Elayne, can break 10% that would be an accomplishment and if the NDP gets less than 50% that would be an accomplishment for both her and the Liberals.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Elayne Brezinger will lose badly finishing in third behind Liberals. Unlike Tom Morino who might win his riding for the Democratic reform, just as Gordon Wilson was the only PDA elected in 1996, Elayne Brezinger won't. Since the Democratic Reform has no chance of forming government and Elayne is not an overly popular MLA, this will go back to its roots and elect Bruce Ralston of the NDP.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
Brenzinger has certainly been in the news a lot, and will continue to get attention as the only sitting MLA of a third party, but she may have worn out her welcome. While her outspoken critique of Campbell's leadership style may have struck a chord, the episode where she accused a fellow Liberal MLA of sexual harassment and then retracted the allegation likely left many people questioning her judgement. The NDP will put a lot of resources into electing former party president and civic activist Bruce Ralston. In a traditionally NDP riding, running against two centre-right candidates, Ralston has the advantage.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
Traditional NDP seat it will be back in the fold on election night.

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