British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Marijuana Party
ARNAOUT, Khalid Damien
Liberal Party
Unity Party
Green Party
Reform Party
New Democratic Party
  Surrey Whalley
Joan Smallwood

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:0.26%
Area (km2):29
Pop Density:1630.00

Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
New Westminster
Surrey-Green Timbers

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23/02/01 Spoon Email:
If Joan Smallwood riding runs again the NDP should carry this riding. Joan wont his ridin by a larg (19%) margin last time. I think she should win it again.
23/02/01 Bernard Schulmann
The NDP is running at 2/5 of where they were in 1996, that is enough to lose this riding especially given that the Liberals have a full campaign team ready and money raised while the NDP can not get the volunteers or money together to run. My prediction is as follows: Smallwood 30%, Elayne Brenzinger 45%, Bc Reform/Unity 15%, Green 10%
21/03/01 Interested Voter Email:
I don't see how some people are so boldly able to predict up to 15% vote for a third party that doesn't even exist. Reform will not be on the ballot, and if there is something called "Unity" it will be run with ZERO money, and a leader that 99.9% of the populous has never seen. This is a 2 party election. With the Greens perhaps pulling some interesting figures in a couple of ridings. Ain't nothing else.
22/03/01 DMB
While this is the strongest and safest of the NDP seats in Surrey, the changing face of the riding will hurt its re-election chances even though I will admit that Joan Smallwood has been a bit of a maverick at times within the government. Some math for you. In the last election Smallwood ran 11% better than their provincial total while the Liberals ran 11% under their provincial total and the winning margin was 19%. Fast forward to 2001 - Latest provincial poll numbers Liberals 63% NDP 20% Margin of error 3.5%. Therefore if the Liberals run 11% below their provincial numbers they will get 52% of the vote and if Joan runs 11% ahead of her party she would get only 31% of the vote - margin of victory - 21% - see why Joan will have trouble getting reelected . Over to the rest of you pundits for your thoughts on this one.
25/03/01 Bob Davies Email:
This area has a lot of leaky Condos. Look for the BC NDP to go down in flames. Many people saw their life savings evaporate, and they will be looking for revenge. Also, many small business owners will be working for the Liberals. They are looking to retaliate against the NDP because of their perception that the NDP have screwed the small business person.
06/04/01 Highland Flood
The NDP stands no chance of getting any candidates elected in the suburbs of Vancouver. And as much as Surrey likes to claim it's a separate city, face it, it's as suburban as they come. The NDP was once strong here federally, but got wiped out in 1993 by Reform. Smallwood's own personal popularity won't count for much. People are just so tired of her party, they'll vote for anything else. The Greens may pick up much of her previous support.
18/04/01 Mark R.
I can't see the 8% of voters in this riding who voted Reform BC to park their vote anywhere but BC Liberal in the hopes of ousting the NDP candiodate here. But, to be generous to the new Unity Party, lets give them 50% of the Reform BC vote from last time (4% split each way between them and the BC Libs). The NDP, in all honesty, are not doing so well in the public eye. Their 50% support in this riding will drop--no question. "By how much?" is the $1,000,000 question. Even if only 1/10th (10%) of former NDP voters went BC Liberal, that would give the NDP roughly 45%. KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS BEING GENEROUS.... From a strictly mathematical point of view, if even 1/10th of NDP support goes to the BC Liberals, and the BC Reform votes from last election split between Unity and the BC Liberals, this riding should go to the BC Liberals when you take the following into account: 50% of former PDA votes going to the BC Liberals 2-5% loss of NDP votes going to the Greens. If this riding doesn't go Liberal, it will be close!
01/05/01 CJ
As of 04/30/01, there is still no Green Party Candidate. However when they do name one, count on a significant showing in the polls. Yes, they only achieved roughly 1.5% last election. But with voters looking to punish Joan and the NDP for their failures, the green party makes a respectable alternative to the Liberals and the Unity Party, both of whom sway far too right for many voters in this riding. 10% and a 3rd place finish is probable, spelling doom for the NDP!
06/04/01 Al Payne
I would agree with the previous poster. The nomination of Green Party candidate Terry McComas will split many of the votes that would have gone to Joan Smallwood. I have heard from many traditionally NDP voters that they will not vote for the NDP this time in order to send them a strong message. If this is not a BC Liberal win, it will be very close between Elayne Brenzinger and Smallwood.
10/05/01 Initials
I live in this riding and I don't see how it can still be listed as NDP. Granted that Joan Smallwood has been a member since 1986 and may have done a lot for the riding, but I cannot see her winning again. Out of all the friends, neighbours, and aquaintances that I have spoken to within this riding I have not heard a single person who intends to vote for the NDP again. We are indeed one of the poorest ridings in the province, but we all seem to agree that the NDP has hurt us financially, and a tax cut would help. Most of those here who don't like the liberals are intending to vote Green, thus creating a left vote split, which will likely allow the Liberal candidate to shoot up the middle and win the riding. Finally, on BCTV Surrrey-Whalley wasn't even listed as a riding that the NDP had a chance of winning. This riding should be at least "too close" if not liberal.
10/05/01 DSG
As is the case for Surrey-Green Timbers the numbers are running counter to the arguements given. Joan Smallwood needs to double her vote count to get even close to the Liberals. At 15% in the polls she would get 2250 votes. To buck this trend and get 30% she would need 4500. In '96 she only polled better than her party by 13% (38% vs.51%) so she doesn't have the personal charisma to double the numbers to have a fighting chance. The Liberals only need to take about 70% of the old reform vote plus about 5% of the disaffected NDP vote to make a solid lead to take the riding. Time for the webmaster to re-visit this riding.
13/05/01 CJ
I can't understand how a previous poster(DSG)has come up with his analysis for a Liberal win. Thinking the liberals will take 70% of reform's vote and 5% of the NDP's vote is strange. When the NDP lose votes in this riding, they will be to the Greens, not Liberals. Plus the liberals are NOT taking 70% of the reform vote. The Liberals now have 2 parties to their right(Unity and reform)with a stronger reform candidate than last election. Plus this region is VERY pro reform and anti-liberal federally. Votes will be split on both sides. Sometimes die-hard liberal supporters need to slow down with these bold predictions.
14/05/01 Andy Email:
Well as a former NDP supporter, I was upset by some of the economic disasters they have presided over since the early 1990's, especially under Glen Clark. I sat undecided for a very long time( and was leaning towards the Liberals)but have ultimately parked my vote once again for the NDP. Why? Because I was unimpressed by all three parties.....the greens have no platform and are...not to be rude...but fruity and will never form any type of gov't...the NDP were really bad this term and don't deserve top be gov't, but I trust Ujjal for some reason, he isn't too for the libs...well...the party has got former Socreds and Alliance supporters...scary stuff and Gordon Campbell comes across as untrustworthy....I wish there was a party that was half way between the NDP and the Liberals.....Smallwood's a good representative so she's got my vote..though grudgingly......

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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