British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Surrey-Green Timbers

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Communist Party
New Democratic Party
Marijuana Party
KALSI, Dennis
Liberal Party
LOCKE, Brenda
Reform Party
Unity Party
  Surrey-Green Timbers
Sue Hammell

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Surrey-Green Timbers
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:5.63%
Area (km2):17
Pop Density:2929.41

Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North

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16/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
At issue is not whether the BC Liberals will win, but will the NDP hang on to any seats. Sue Hammell is the most unknown Minister in the government and lives in a tawny Victoria neighbourhood which is anathema to this working class riding. Libs have nominated an aggressive street fighter with Brenda Locke over a year ago
19/02/01 Email:
Brenda Locke is the Liberal Candidate in this riding. It will be a close raise, but Brenda will pull it off.
20/02/01 CM Email:
Sue Hammell wont be re-elected. She was one of the NDP MLAs sued in the Stockell lawsuit.
25/03/01 Bob Davies Email:
The leaky Condo crisis, unemployment, BC NDP incompetence, the areas drug problems and the sick BC economy will contribute to voter rejection of the BC NDP. Look for the NDP to lose even this seat!
09/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
I think the previous posters have neglected several factors that should allow Sue Hammell to hold the riding: the very strong margin of victory from '96, no PDA candidate to split NDP votes this time, the Greens are not a factor in the riding, and most important, the significant Indo-Canadian population in the riding that could be swayed by the Dosanjh factor. Hammell has kept close ties with this community over the years and is very well known locally (she used to work for former mayor and current city councillor Bob Bose). A recent consultants report predicted that this would be one of 7 seats the NDP would hold in the election.
09/04/01 Interested Voter Email:
Poll Junkie is way off base as usual. First, the previous Liberal candidate was a complete "unknown" in '96, and ran a non-campaign without any funds whatsoever. 2001 Candidate Locke has been running for over a year. Second, this is not "NDP territory" - it was previously held by Rita Johnston. Third, it is spurious to suggest that an entire ethnic community (18% of riding) will vote "en masse" for Ujjal's candidate. This is not the type of community that will vote for a "millionaire socialist" who lives in Oak Bay.
09/04/01 BJH Email:
The NDP don't stand a chance in this riding. Brenda Locke has been working hard to get her name out there. Sue Hammelhas done nothing for the riding while living in a a very upscale neighbourhood in Victoria. (one of 7 houses she owns) Look for her to get a sound thrashing at the hands of this working-class community.
12/04/01 DMB
Poll junkie conveniently forgets to mentions David Schrek or Bill Barlee's projections - neither of which have Surrey Green Timbers as a win for the NDP. To interested voter - I beleive Rita Johnson represented Surrey - Newton before Penny Priddy beat her in the 1991 sweep of the Socreds. As for Sue Hammell - she ran 11% ahead of her party the last time - so at 16% in the polls she should get around 27% this time - hardly enough to be anyway near victory in a riding that is a two person race - also the Indo-Canadians like to be on the winning side and they know that the Liberals are going to form the government on May 15 or 16, 2001. Liberal gain
18/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
A second post on this riding to respond to Interested Voter and others. As DMB pointed out, Rita Johnston held Surrey-Newton, not Green Timbers, before being knocked off by Penny Priddy in 1991. I notice that Surrey-Newton is ranked as too close to call for 2001, so I guess there are more sophisticated analysts out there who realize that citing 10-year old voting trends for a party that no longer exists is "off base" as a method of predicting 2001 election results. Unwarranted personal attacks on Sue Hammell don't address the factors I noted in my first post. The fact that she has a Victoria residence (as all MLAs, including Liberals, do when the House is sitting) doesn't change her long history in the riding. CM gave us half the story on the Stockwell suit - she was named in it, but the suit was THROWN OUT by the court and "ordinary citizen" Stockwell ran for a nomination for the BC Liberals, I believe. It will be a tight race, but I think Hammell will hold the seat, and I will take Bill Tielman's analysis over Barlee and Shreck any day of the week.
18/04/01 EP Email:
Sue Hammell's martin in the last election was huge enough that it should tide her over this time around. Further, Hammell's resignation against Glenn Clark (with Joy McPhil) still rings around the riding. Hammell have been a solid MLA and I am willing to put money on her and Smallwood holding on to their Surrey seats.
18/04/01 Bernard Schulmann
If we assume the Liberals drop by The 1996 results redistributed to the new boundaries: NDP Margin Grn NDP PDA Lib Ref Surrey-Green Timbers 2724 18.0% 1.1% 50.9% 5.7% 32.8% 5.9% We can make a few assumptions, one that the PDA will get 0 and their vote will split between the NDP and Liberals in some fashion, I personally think it will go 75% Lib. Second, BC Reform will not be running and get zero as well - I think Unity will get most of their vote. Finally, the Greens will likely get about 3 times their vote last time (so 3.3% with the increase all coming from the NDP) So, where are we at before we take into account the public hatred of the NDP, NDP 50 and Lib 40. The 1996 election alreayd has incumbency built into it, so it is not more of an effect. So, with a swing of 5% from the NDP to the Liberals, the Liberal win the riding. So at a point where the Liberals are polling at 47% and the NDP 35%, the Liberals woud win the riding. But we have a swing of 20%+ - for the NDP to hold this riding, the need to have won the riding in 1996 by a 40% point margin - more than double the reality. So my prediction of the result is as follows: Lib 55, NDP 35, Green 3.5, Unity 3, Marijuana 1.5, oth 2, Still, this will be in the top ten of the NDP results in the province....
23/04/01 Al Payne
I do not understand why this riding has gone from "BC Liberal" to "Too Close to Call" in the last week. For one: the criteria for your judgements says that it gives more weight to those who give their names and email addresses while the NDP submissions were done anonamously. Second: the latest opinion polls are showing 3-to-1 support for the BC Liberals in both Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers. This is slighly closer than all of the other ridings in this region, but this can be explained by the fact that the incumbents are NDPers. Can you explain what information you used for this decision? It tends to make your whole methodology suspect.
23/04/01 Interested Voter Email:
Green's have just nominated a well known name in this riding, which should help seal the NDP's fate. Previous posters have overlooked the fact that the Liberals ran a 'non-campaign" in this riding in '96, compared this time with a candidate who has been knocking on doors for over a year. Lawn signs (on real property) are running 20-1 in favour of Brenda Locke.
01/05/01 Michael Ensley
Ujjal D debate performance will save this riding for the NDP by bring out the East Indian community to vote plus the Greens will not increase their vote in this riding.
02/05/01 Mark R.
? The Greens will not do better than last time? Who is believing that silly little bit of opinion? The Greens only got 1% of the vote in this riding last election, and with a credible (or semi-credible) known quantity now running for them, they can only do better, at the expense of the NDP. Do the math next time....
03/05/01 Michael Ensley
I really believe that Greens will not increase their vote as much is being counted on by some.;-) With the attention being focused on the need for an effective opposition I do not believe that the Green candidate in Surrey-Green Timbers is going to do all that well with no money and hardly any local support. However, to concede your point I can see the Greens tripling their vote and getting 3% this time around.;-) If the campaign focus strays from who will be the opposition it will not benefit the Greens in Surrey-Green Timbers.
03/05/01 DSG Email:
I can't believe what I'm reading from the NDP supporters. Today's poll figures are bearing out what people are saying in the streets. Sue Hammel is not so widely loved or the Indo-Canadian community so slavishly ethno-centric as these guys would have one believe. In fact if I was a member of the South-asian community I would be insulted that the NDP would take my vote so granted just because the leader of the party was Indo-Canadian. On the basis of mathematics alone the NDP is finished here. Even if Ms. Hammel polled double the current numbers she would still barely break 30%. She AIN'T GONNA WIN with those numbers and she's not that well loved to better her own party by double the vote. To the webmaster I say time to reveiw your assessment of this riding.
05/05/01 DMB
If Ujjah did so well in the debate it really shows up in the Compas poll #'s for the Eastern and Southern suburbs - just in case some of our sincere NDP posters miss them here they are. Regional: Liberals 75% NDP 9% Green 8% You can give the nice hard working and popular Sue Hammell an extra 25 % of the Liberal vote and Sue is still 16 % points behind the Liberals. I guess one of her decisions after May 16, 2001 is which one of her houses in Victoria she wants to live in and how many more she will buy with her taxpayer funded firing package.
08/05/01 BAC Email:
Sue Hammell may be well liked personally, but the decisions she made as a member of the NDP cabinet will come back to haunt her. They screwed up everything they touched. Can we forgive them for fast ferries, the over budget skytrain, the failure to bring the PNE to Surrey, the devastation to our Healthcare system, not to mention the violation of the public trust. I can't think of any reason to vote for Sue Hammell.
13/05/01 cms Email:
It is unfortunate there is no Green Party candidate in this riding. Many people seem to still be undecided. It could go either way between the liberals and the ndp. No candidates have really gone out of their way to meet the people. I have not yet heard of an all candidates meeting. I wonder why that is?

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Last Updated 14 May 2001
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