4:38 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:53 AM 06/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Paul Antle
Norman Doyle
Stephen Eli Harris
Mike Kehoe

Norman Doyle

2004 Result:
Norman E Doyle
Walter Noel
Janine Piller
Scott Vokey

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Dave-o
I'm going to be a contrarian, and call this one Liberal. Only a five point spread on the NTV poll:
when this Toriest of NL seats, given the national campaign, should be a foregone conclusion. If this is the best Doyle can do, his goose may just be cooked. If only one St. John's seat goes Liberal, this will be it.
09 01 06 J Hickman
I am a Conservative supporter (hopefully other commentators will declare their bias, too!). That said, there are some more objective reasons to predict a win for Norm Doyle:
1. Danny Williams is still exceptionally popular province-wide, and particularly in the St John's area. He has personally endorsed Norm Doyle.
2. St John's East is a traditional Tory riding. Even when the CPC campaign had a bit of a last-weekend meltdown in '04, Norm held on. It usually takes something really out of the ordinary for the Tories to lose here.
3. Norm is generally seen as a "good constituency man". He doesn't have the national profile of L. Hearn but seems to have built up some goodwill in the riding as a result.
4. Liberal Paul Antle, his main opponent this time, has some strengths that Norm's last opponent lacked (youth, business experience). However, Antle lacks the governmental/political experience of the last Liberal candidate, who was a former provincial cabinet minister - so I see this as somewhat of a wash.
That's not to say Norm has it 100% in the bag - a lot can of course happen over the next 2 weeks, both locally and nationally. But as of this point, I agree that this riding belongs in the CPC camp.
14 12 05 M. Lunn
I agree that Norman Doyle could lose his seat, but it will be in spite of Danny Williams not because of him. In fact he is the only one of the four Atlantic premiers to not publicly endorse Stephen Harper. Also Danny Williams is one of the most popular premiers in Canada. His approval ratings is even higher than Ralph Klein's is Alberta. However, he is a former PC, while the Conservative leader Stephen Harper is from the Reform/Alliance side, which was never popular in Atlantic Canada so I suspect there are many Red Tories who go PC provincially and Liberal federally. That being said, the current opinion polls seem to suggest the results will be similar to last time around. If had to bet on the outcome in Atlantic Canada, I would bet the results will be identical to last time around.
12 12 05 G.H.
Doyle benefitted a great deal from Danny Williams' strength last election. After the strikes and the other problems Williams has had, along with the Atlantic Accord, the Liberals should win by a slim margin this time.
03 12 05 Victor A.
I'm very surprised most pundits consider it as a Conservative stronghold, I believe that Paul Antle is likely to win this one, although I would not count Doyle out as of yet. If there is one Conservative left in Ntld & Labrador, Norman will be the one. Still, I believe Liberals will win it by around 500-1000 votes.
This time Liberals are just too strong in this Province, scoring as much as 50 % of support in the province in most surveys + a certain loss of popularity of the Nfld & Labrador Progressive-Conservative government. ( All these strikes of union employees, etc ) she will seal the deal. Liberals will win 7 out of 7 in this province. Probably the Atlantic Accord will help as well. Like I said don't count Doyle out as of yet, but in my opinion unless he puts out a really strong campaign he will lose.
26 11 05 yes
I think the Liberals have a real chance here. The NDP doe not have a candidate yet and no one is on the horizon, which means a lot of that NDP vote just might migrate to the new liberal candidate Paul Antle. Antle seems to be a good choice for Liberals. For a change they have a new face, no baggage vs an old but well like Norman Doyle. I am betting on a change
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This is a rock-solid Conservative seat. It was closer than usual in 2004 on account of Stephen Harper's comments in 2002 regarding Atlantic Canada. Because memories are slowly fading, the Conservatives won't have any significant difficulty in keeping this seat.
21 11 05 L.O.
I lived in this riding during the last federal election. Lets view this in a very crass and skeptical way from Norm Doyle's perspective. . .
The Liberal Party of Canada put forward a guy who was heralded as a "star candidate" -- former Maverick Liberal MHA Walter Noel (and it's very fair to clal this guy a star . . he was a great candidate for them). They did a stellar job of plastering the riding with flyers and campaign literature. They got a deathbed conversion from Paul Martin that not even John Efford was predicting on the issue of offshore revenue. They had just come out of a provincial government strike situation that had people extra peeved at all tories as a result (St. John's is a government union town in many ways). They had a strong and fairly effective TV fear campaign aimed at Harper and Company. They had a provincial PC organization that was somewhat muted on the federal tories at the time.
Will all those hurdles, Doyle still got more than 40% of the vote and won the seat.
Why, with spectre of Gomery, with Harper now invited to speak at guest luncheons of the powerhouse provincial tory organizations, and Norm and company proven right about the stalls and delays and hostage taking on the Accord, would Norm be in any danger of losing this seat now?
Besides, this seat is even more conservative than Loyola's . . .
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
We agree that Adscam is going to be a minor issue here as opposed to the vote on the Atlantic Accord, which makes this race too close to call right now. We think that Doyle will edge out the Liberals because it doesn't look like a possible Conservative win, and Atlantic Canadians are more comfortable voting Tory in such a scenario.
26 05 05 Mike D
I agree with Tony to a large degree. Though I wouldn't call this one Liberal yet. Newfoundland voters will vote along practical lines ($$$) over other issues. They simply can't afford to do otherwise and they will not easily tolerate MPs that vote against their interests. Too close to call. Probably a tight Conservative-Liberal race, but the NDP could be a factor if they can find a really strong candidate.
17 05 05 Tony
I'm putting this down as an opinion, rather than a real prediction...
I think that both St. John seats will be vulnerable if both Conservative Members vote against the Budget and the Atlantic Accords... it may be bigger and more recent ammo for the Liberals than AdScam (which is old news to a degree) is for the Tories. Both Hearn and Doyle better be ready for a fight if a Spring election is called - as both men only won by about 2,000 votes. I'm not sure if they'll lose, but I do think it will be very close... and I'm predicting the Liberal party on a roll of the dice.
04 05 05 R. Daniel
Both St. John's ridings are going Conservative, with increased margins. During even the most humiliating conservative defeats, St. John's has given it's two seats to the prevailing conservative party. The only exception in my lifetime was 1993, when they lost everything. Popular M.P.'s, like the ones sitting now, getting defeated by the Adscam Party of Canada in 2005? I don't think so!
04 05 05 M. Lunn
In all likelihood, Norman Doyle should be re-elected. St. John's generally tends to support Conservative parties and the Conservatives have improved slightly in Atlantic Canada since last election. The only thing that could cost him his seat is if the Budget is defeated and the Atlantic Accord isn't passed as a stand-alone legislation. There could be backlash for defeating the Atlantic Accord, although the Conservatives have made clear they would pass it shortly after being elected so the liberals might get blamed for inserting it in the budget to force the Conservatives to vote against it. His Socially Conservative views won't help him since this isn't the bible belt, but won't hurt him either since this is not a large urban area like Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver where social conservatism is very unpopular.

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