1:47 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
4:19 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Andrew J. Chisholm
David Lobie Daughton
Tom DeBlois
Christian Heritage
Baird Judson
Shawn Murphy
Brian Pollard

Hon. Shawn Murphy

2004 Result:
Shawn Murphy
Darren Peters
Dody Crane
Will McFadden
Baird Judson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 RP.
This one's up in the air, I think. Murphy is bleeding badly from his right flank, although I think he's still ahead by some (only 7% I've heard from one of the campaigns). Harper is coming back to Charlottetown this week, I would imagine because there's a good chance of some pick-ups in PEI.
14 12 05 KRB
I disagree with some who've said that PEI's always been sort of a bellwether province. Since 1968, most of the PEI ridings have been fairly even (with Cardigan and Egmont the most Liberal), but until the latest Liberal era, PEI usually had non-government side MPs. Even during the Trudeau years, most of PEI's MPs were Conservative. And in 1988, PEI went all Liberal as Mulroney won his second term.
Having said all that, this is going Liberal.
09 12 05 Daniel
Even with a strong candidate in Tom Deblois, I do not see Charlottetown, or any riding on PEI for that matter, changing from Liberal red any time in the near future. This whole province is completely reliant on Federal subsidies and other cash infusions from Ottawa, and because it appears at this stage we are set for another Liberal government, Islanders will elect four Liberals....unless, by some change of fortune, it becomes apparent that the Conservatives will form the next government.
31 10 05 Steve G
As if Islanders care about Gomery? PEI is basically a Liberal Party theme park as it is, with its over-representation of 4 MPs (always Liberal) dishing out the goods in the run-up to each election campaign. No contest.
17 07 05 RP.
What can I say? When I made that prediction, the Libs were tanking nationally, and we knew from a CRA poll that they were down in Charlottetown specifically. I thought that, with the combination of a good candidate would spell victory for the Cons. I mean, I really didn't think that a successful exec with TRA, and former owner of the largest wholesaler in the Maritimes would bother wasting his time running if the signs didn't suggest he'd take it. Who knows, for now Murphy is probably safe. The best thing about this prolonged election campaign is that things can, have, and will change over night. :)
23 06 05 Bear and Ape
We do not live in PEI so we cannot comment on how well known and/or popular Deblois is (the conservative candidate). What we can say though is that (for the moment) it does not look like the Conservatives will win, and thus Atlantic Canadians leery of a CPC government would be a little more inclined to vote for a (well liked) Conservative candidate. As of now, we still think the smart money is on Murphy and the Liberals, but it's not a guarantee.
23 05 05 RP
Deblois did win the nomination. If you've never heard of him, (1) you haven't lived in Charlottetown long, and (2) you've never worked in a small shop anywhere in the Maritimes. He also has EXTENSIVE community involvement. Granted, the Murphy FAMILY name is well known, but he personally does not have a profile except for being the MP.
23 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
This riding will vote for Murphy a relatively popular MP unless the tide goes out on the grits in Atlantic Canada which doens't seem to be in the cards...remember though, PEI does often vote as a Block for the party that forms government. Liberal Hold
22 05 05 A.S.
True, Dody Crane's been C-Town's perennial federal NDP flagbearer for however long--though I'd rather see her as a maritime Chris Charlton or Irene Mathyssen, i.e. it's not as "Harold Stassen" hopeless as it seems. Remember that she came a strong second in Alexa Year 1997; and the ghost of that has allowed her to keep her deposit ever since (which, by PEI standards, is virtually victory enough). Don't know if she's running now, but the seat remains (barring a Herb Dickieson Egmont run) the most "obvious" NDP target in PEI--but that's still surpassing expectations. Anyway, the crossfire btw/natural NDP strength and "anti-urban" perceptions of the no-longer-Progressive Conservatives likely means more smiles for the Grits of Green Gables--after all, thanks to the opposition split, the seat provided both the lowest share *and* the largest margin of victory for the PEI Grits in '97.
09 05 05 Nick Boragina
in responce to RP:
I actually live in this riding, and I've never heard of Deboris, or whoever you said, but Murphy is far from a nobody, his family's name is plastered all over the city, and his brother, Danny, owns wendys and more importantly all the Tims' on the Island. Shawn is not a nobody, he's a popular MP. Beyond that, lets look at the past results for Charlottetown at http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E )
the 2000 PC candidate was the 2004 CPC candidate, he lost about a thousand votes between the elections. The NDP and CHP have run the same candidate for the past 17 years. Murphy has been running since 2000. I just cant see anyone beating him from looking at these numbers, as I said, I'll post back here once I see the progress of the sign war, but I just dont see anyone beating the murph.
07 05 05 RP.
If Deblois is the conservative candidate here, I give it to him. His family has owned one of Atlantic Canada's largest wholesalers for generations, plus he's someone with an actual profile. When the contest was between 2 nobodies, Murphy and Peters, the nobody on the government side was bound to win.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
I live in and will be voting in this riding, as well, I've run as a provincial candidate in this riding as an NDPer, before I became a Grit. The MP's brother owns all the Tim Hortons' and Wendy's on the Island. His other brother owns a smaller food service company. His father's name is on the UPEI student center. Murphy is to Charlottetown what Copps is to Hamilton. Beyond just that, Shawn is a likeable guy, not to mention being the foremost MP on the Island. While the PCP may have been able to win here and do so repeadedly, the CPC wont have as much luck, especially being seen as more pro-rural in this, the only urban riding on PEI. In this riding, any anti-liberal voters will probably swing to the NDP. I expect an easy Liberal win here. I plan to be involved in the election, and hopefully go Door to Door. I'll keep everyone updated on info here.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
The liberals won by too large a margin to overcome. This will go liberal as will all the either PEI ridings.

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