2:17 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:34 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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John Hugh Edwards
Mark Eyking
Howie MacDonald
Chris Milburn

Hon. Mark Eyking

2004 Result:
Mark Eyking
John Hugh Edwards
Howie MacDonald
Chris Milburn
Cathy Thériault
B. Chris Gallant

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Janey
Strong Liberal tradion? Maybe for a few short decades. You must be young enough and not have read your political history enough to recall the Antogonish movement (how Cape Breton College or whatever it is being called these days got its start!) - Andy Hogan owned part of the riding in the 70's and the CCF even held the riding for a time. And remember the Conservative - whose name esacpes me (His EA, Joyce someone ) ran in the next election but lost - but after all the nasty things the Liberals that were so not true about Father Hogan, the Liberals deserve to never again win this riding. (But they alas have since even tho Capers have long memories, they need jobs and like most rural voters, know one needs a government member and they can read the polls very well so while the Conservative is not coming on strong, they will vote against the Liberals. I know this sounds strange but strategic voting simply won't give them a Tory, it WILL help the NDP. Maybe, lol
16 01 06 Scotté
The Liberals were happy to sit back and claim that local residents were better off with MPs on the government side. A tactic that has worked in the past but alas a Liberal won't be sitting on that side of the House this time. The riding has not voted Conservative since 1974. Any increase in tory support will bleed from the Liberals. Any loss of support for the Liberals will boost the already strong NDP campaign.
The NDP are running more newspaper ads this time, they have literature mailed out (they didn't last time), they have a sign presence and a candidate that has alot of experience in community development.
People can only ignore so much. The NDP machine is the machine with momentum in the Sydney-Victoria campaign. They have a stand alone local campaign that is strong.
11 01 06 Mad Caper
The local issue of the Sydney Tar Ponds continues to be a hot topic and although again it is a provincial issue,the Boularderie Island strip mining issue will not go away for Mr.Eyking. When you couple this with the fact that Conservative candidate,Mr.Howie MacDonald,numbers are up by about 4000 votes,it is obvious that Mr.Eyking's support is bleeding to both the left and the right.
07 01 06 M. Lunn
This is generally a left-leaning area, but people realize that the riding would get very little from the feds if they elect an opposition member. Outside of Halifax, most Atlanti Canadians vote between the two potential parties to form government and which one they would prefer, which in the case of Syndey-Victoria is definitely the Liberals.
06 01 06 g-spot
I recently moved back to this riding (I lived in neigbouring riding, just a short drive from Sydney). I honestly think that the NDP has a legitimate shot at taking this riding. Mark Eyking has been invisible. I've seen him in his mailouts and in the Cape Breton Post when federal announcements are made, but that is about it. To be fair, when Peter Mancini (who is now running in Dartmouth--Cole Harbour) was MP, I didn't see him all over the place; however, I was only 9 when he was elected in 1997, and I didn't follow the news then quite like I do now. John Hugh Edwards, who is running again, can take this seat, but to do so, he needs more visibility! Howie MacDonald has got some visibility, with his signs and small billboards, but this riding was one of (if not) the weakest Conservative riding in Nova Scotia. As for Dr. Milburn, the Greens just haven't caught on here in the Atlantic as they have in the Pacific. I'm going to call this for the NDP, however, the Liberals will more than likely blow everyone out of the water (just like 2000 and 2004) due to traditional voting patterns.
16 12 05 Mad Caper
I have been doing some research on this riding and based on my findings this riding is not a slam dunk as the local liberals would have us believe. There are some major issues facing Mr. Eyking, such as ,the substancial job losses at the clearwater plant, how Mr. Eyking handled the very touchy drop trailer issue at Marine Atlantic, and although it is a mostly provincial issue , the Boularderie Island strip mining proposal has people in this part of the riding up in arms. The people of that general catchment area are very disappointed with Mr.Eyking for his apparent unwillingness to stand up for his constituents in that immediate area, of which he himself is a resident. His bumbling and lack of backbone to deal with these three burning local issues could make for a very uncomfortable evening for Mr.Eyking on election night. Couple this with the fact that N.D.P. candidate John Hugh Edwards also lives in the same area of the riding as Mr. Eyking and has a very good grasp of these issues and is staying on top of them, as one local liberal put it the other day, if they beat David Dingwall then who knows.
12 06 05 TylerA
It's an empty net for Eyking here. NDPers tend to forget that the last time they turned the tables, the pogey was cut and there was a Nova Scotian running the party. People weren't really shocked by Sponsorship. Conservatives won't get the PC votes back either. Eyking wins again with near double the NDP vote.
22 05 05 Christian Socialism
This is the sort of place that wouldn't be even slightly competitive in the U.K; Sydney-Victoria has always reminded me of Easington (which has had similer-ish enviromental problems) and the industrial Fife seats... and to say that the voting patterns of either are predictable is something of an understatement.
Not the case with Sydney-Victoria though; over the past few elections it voted massively Liberal in 1993 (there were three Cape Breton seats then, but you get the idea), flipped to the NDP in 1997 partly due to the same reasons why pretty much everywhere else in the Atlantic tossed out Liberal M.P's that year, coupled with a few more local reasons, and has voted Liberal in the past two elections due to what boils down to something of a strange mixture of blackmail and bribery; the promise to do something about the Sydney Tar Ponds *if* Cape Breton elects Liberal M.P's. Naturally nothing was done about it between 2000 and 2004, but in 2004 the Liberals made the same promise. Now then... since 2004 what's been done to clean up the Tar Ponds? A review of the enviromental effects of a clean up has been ordered. That's about it. And the review means that efforts to do something about it have/will be delayed. Again. Exactly how this plays electorally is hard to tell; on the one hand it's possible that the good people of industrial Cape Breton will once again trust the Liberals to actually get something done, on the other hand it's possible that a backlash similer to 1997 will occur. It could be an *extremely* interesting race; or it could be a blowout.
14 05 05 OLIVER
I think that Scotte and Mark R. must be posting for Sackville-Eastern Shore or Acadie-Bathurst. In 1993 the Liberals won here by a huge margin. In 1997 there was a ONE election blip due to Chretien's EI cuts. In 2000 the Liberals regained the seat from the NDP and in 2004 they only increased their already comfortable margin. I think that predicting a NDP victory here is only a fantasy.
17 05 05 Scotté
Mark Eyking won the first time because of a last minute visit from Jean Chretien, telling everyone that Cape Breton would become a paradise overnight if Mark and Roger were on his team. Cape Bretoner's are fed up with voting Liberal. What genuine attempt has there been to offset the impact of the closure of the coal mines? People are not going to buy the line that having impotent MP's on the side of a corrupt regime that has continually done little or nothing to support the island. People will not do it again, with the same anger that sent the NDP to Ottawa in 1997 Cape Bretoner's will send them there again. The conservatives have lost their base of support here and will pose no threat.
16 05 05 CGH
Mark is such a likeable guy and a popular farmer. Plus, he's a Liberal in Cape Breton... do you need anymore convincing that this is his riding to take. It will take a lot for any party, probably the NDP, to even come close to ousting this guy.
11 05 05 Mark R.
I don't know what planet some of the others are on who have commented on this riding. This was one of 6 ridings in Nova Scotia that went NDP in the election where the Liberals WON NO SEATS in Nova Scotia! If anything is clear, votes in this province are comfortable with voting for any of the 3 major national parties. With the Liberals clearly in trouble this riding, along with other in the province, will likely change hands to an opposition party. The Conservatives ran a poor third last time. This riding will probably be NDP.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
At one time, Cape Breton was the bastion of NDP support in the Atlantic, but with each election, the Liberals get stronger and stronger here. I have to agree that the Liberals will win regardless of the NDP. I disagree that the gap will be smaller, I'd bet the gap will increase. Bigger liberal win then last time.
06 05 05 Blair MacLeod
This has been Liberal friendly turf for a very long time, but even Cape Bretoners are becoming turned off of the scandal-plagued Liberals, both federally and provincially, and like in 97, they will not turn to the right-wing conservatives as an alternative, they will turn to the NDP. Even with a relatively weak candidate (name on ballot) in Michelle Dockrill in 97, the NDP was able to clean Dingwall's clock. Many believed that John Hugh Edwards was the more credible candidate in the last campaign, but voters were scared through fear of the conservatives to vote Liberal yet again, thanks to last-minute scare-mongering by the Liberals.....I'm not sure that strategy will work again, especially considering the fact that the Liberals and NDP have shown that they can cooperate against the Tories. I may be optimistic, but I believe this could be an NDP win in Sydney-Victoria.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a strong liberal riding with the exception of the 1997 election, has usually gone liberal, even back when Robert Stanfield was PC leader and the Tories won most of the Nova Scotia ridings. The 1997 election was simply a protest against the EI cuts and likely won't happen again. Mark Eyking won by a large margin last time around and will win again.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Depending on who the NDP candidate is, this Cape Breton riding might be a two-way race. Mark Eyking is, likely, the most useless MP there ever was, but he's in Cape Breton and he's a Liberal, so that gives him a boost, regardless. Given what I know of Cape Breton, though, I'm going to call this one for the Grits right now, with the NDP not far behind. Prediction: Eyking holds with less than 500 votes difference.

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