Update/Mise à jour:
1:49 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:35 PM 03/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Ulric DeGrâce
Yvon Godin
Eric Landry
Marcelle Mersereau
Philippe Rousselle
Serge Savoie

Yvon Godin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Yvon Godin
Serge Rousselle
Joel E. Bernard
Mario Lanteigne

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 expat
Godin is safe here - personally popular and high profile. Any risk that Mersereau could have mounted a viable challenge have disappeared in the train wreck that the Liberal campaign is becoming (does anyone think they will actually pick up any new seats, anywhere?). Savioe hasn't run the kind of campaign that could surf the Conservative wave to victory, and in a riding where people are quite happy with the representation they have, Godin is a safe call.
07 01 06 Former New Brunswicker living in B.C.
Those who are predicting a Liberal victory in Acadie-Bathurst solely because a former McKenna Liberal MLA is running for the Liberals are ignoring the history of this riding since 1997. Mersereau may improve upon the Liberal's dismal result from 2004, but she will hardly topple Yvon Godin. Supposedly strong Liberals have run against Godin before, and he has defeated them each time. Remember, Godin took down the mighty Doug Young in 1997. Another Liberal MLA and cabinet minister, Bernard Theriault, ran against Godin in 2000, and Godin once again won, this time with a higher share of the vote. This occured during an election in which Liberal fortunes were rising and NDP fortunes were in decline. The opposite is the case this time around, and Godin will easily hold on to this seat.
14 12 05 M. Lunn
I noticed that Joel Bernard is predicting this will go Conservative. I should remind everyone Joel Bernard was the Conservative candidate in 2004 so it is a very biased post. The Liberals have a stronger candidate this time around, but the margin of victory for Yvon Godin is too large to overcome, so he may get under 50% this time around, but I suspect he will easily be re-elected.
09 12 05 swankyspoon
If my memory serves me correctly the Liberals are always running star candidates against Godin in this riding. Fact is, Godin is immensely popular in this riding and won by a substantial margin last election. I predict another NDP in win in this one.
08 12 05 Joel Bernard
The Conservative Candidate is none other than the former President of the Acadian Party. It would be a huge mistake for the NDP or the Liberals to under estimate Serge Savoie. I will suggest to you that this will be a two way race. Godin and Savoie.
07 12 05 Bathurst
This will not be an easily won seat, but now with Marcelle Mersereau as Liberal Candidate, this traditionally liberal riding might once again turn red. With the closure of the paper mill and the absence of action on Yvon Godin's behalf when he held the balance of power the NDP will resonate with the voters.
05 12 05 ClaudeB
Yvon Godin will sail to a fourth consecutive election win in this largely francophone riding in northeastern New Brunswick. Godin is immensely popular in the Acadian Peninsula and can reach to the unionized labour force in the Bathurst area.
On top of that, Yvon Godin has a lot of airtime as a national spokesperson for the NDP in French-language media.
Former MLA and provincial cabinet minister Marcelle Mersereau is slated to run as Liberal candidate in the area. She has some support in the Bathurst area, but she doesn't have a lot of support in the eastern part of the riding.
03 12 05 Mark
This WAS the safest NDP seat east of Ottawa, but if the Liberals get Marcelle Merseraue to run, this will become a dogfight. Godin is popular, and he leads, but Merseraue is the only candidate that might close that gap. If she runs, the Liberals will make this a fight
02 12 05 nbpolitico
This should now be moved over to "To Close To Call". The Liberals have scored a coup by naming former deputy premier Marcelle Mersereau as their candidate. She represented Bathurst from 1991-2003 surving Lord's big sweep in 1999. She is well liked and firey. The key to Godin's success has been his populism and the division among Liberal ranks. People think that this seat is locked up for Godin but that is not entirely true. In 2000, the Liberals were wholly divided and in 2004 they ran something of a parachute candidate (a former resident of the area) who was an academic that does not play well in the region.
The Liberals now have a candidate that is populist, a woman-of-the-people and a proven winner. I would put this into the Liberal column right now except for the fact that it is not clear whether or not the Liberals are united, if they are Mersereau is unbeatable, if they aren't she can still make a close race of it. Following Doug Young's defeat, the loose coalition he had built fell apart. In 2000, the infighting among Liberals in the riding became much more intense during a very competitive nomination process with Bernard Theriault, MLA running with the support of much of the Péninsule and a candidate, whose name I cannot recall, running with the support of the Bathurst-Chaleur area and backed by Marcelle Mersereau. It is unclear whether Mersereau, who was a key player in the earlier divisions, can reunite the riding but if she can she'll win by more than 10%
01 12 05 Liberty Canada
Yvon Godin suddenly has a deadly serious challenge on his hands... Unshackled from a minority government and enslavement to the NDP, Martin has found his footing again, and has struck in Acadie with the nomination of former deputy Premier Marcelle Mersereau.
With unemployment a problem, the voters of Acadie may well turn toward someone who is not only going to be in government, instead of a rump fourth party, but is poised to take the seat in cabinet formerly held by Claudette Bradshaw.
23 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Yvon is untouchable, the only way this could have gone anything but Dipper is if Yvon had have ran for the NBNDP leadership and won...that didn't happen so it stays Dipper
14 05 05 A.S.
Ah, the boundary change--that explains why the Allardville polls in Miramichi were so disproportionately NDP and upwards of 15% of ballots cast were rejected. Then again, Acadian voters tend to be haywire w/rejected ballots, even more so than Quebeckers--is that telling us anything? Basque-type unrest bubbling beneath the surface? The NDP's surely grateful to have a high-suction ballot vacuum like Yvan Godin as their standard-bearer; but under the circumstances, his appeal's more that of a (thankfully civil) "Bloc Acadien" leader who's nominally of the NDP. And in this light, it's hard not to think of the party's high-water mark in Quebec: the 1990 Phil Edmonston by-election in Chambly, when for a fleeting moment during Mulroney's nadir and just prior to the Lucien Bouchard schism, the NDP became the parking lot of record for future Bloc Quebecois voters...
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Based on the riding's history, this is not a tradtional NDP riding, but rather a strong liberal riding. Yvon Godin won because of the EI cuts in 1997, but since then he has shown himself to be a strong and capable MP, which is why each time around he wins with a bigger margin, so he should have no trouble being re-elected, although I expect this riding to go liberal once he steps down since they are rumours he may be the next leader for the provincial NDP.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
Godain, the NDP MP here, was able to beat a former provincial Leader of the Opposition, and the foremost maritime cabinet minister in 1997. More outstanding, he repeated his win in 2000, and in 2004 raised his margin. Since the 2004 election, a number of voters took elections canada to court and the boundaires of this riding were changed, adding a pro-NDP area to this riding. This will be another easy win, this is the safest NDP riding east of Ottawa.
03 05 05 PGW
This was the second strongest NDP riding in Canada in 2004. As long as Yvon Godin chooses to run in Acadie-Bathurst, he'll win it. NDP lock.
02 05 05 Seb
No matter when the election is called, we can compare Yvon to Claudette Bradshaw from the Liberals. This is a sure win for the NDP and so needed for this riding.
26 04 05 JF
People are still satisfied with the job of Yvon Godin

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