Update/Mise à jour:
1:50 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
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9:46 AM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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David Raymond Amos
John Carty
Philip Duchastel
Pat Lynch
Andy Scott

Hon. Andy Scott

2004 Result/Résultats:
Andy Scott
Kent Fox
John Carty
Daron Letts

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 D.W.C.
The most recent post is incorrect: The 'split' Alliance and PC vote combined to equal more than 50% in the 2000 election.
In 2004 the new Conservative party won just over 30%, around the same amount the Reform/Alliance used to win. So their vote dropped by nearly half, in an election where the new Conservative party made gains across the country.
In 2004 the PC vote split three ways: one third of PC voters switched to the NDP, who are running the same candiate in 2006.
This election the NDP candidate is John Carty, Manager of the SPCA, and he stands to gain from voters switching from both the Liberals and new Conservatives.
All this to say - if Pat Lynch only wins the new Conservative core vote he'll lose on the 23rd.
The NDP has raised over $25,000 in donations since the election was called, has a phone bank operating from 10:00 AM to 9:00 PM, and scores of volunteers coming in off the street offering to help.
Carty has done very well in the media and in the numerous debates held in the riding, has mailed a full-colour leaflet to every home in the riding, is running radio ads on both the Fox and KHJ radio, has billboards on the sides and backs of city buses, and just sent a letter to every business in the riding talking about why the NDP is the best choice for small businesses in Fredericton.
13 01 06 JD
Miltary ad has cost Scott 1000-1500 votes from CFB Gagetown. THose on base are saying the general public have no idea how irate soldiers are over the ad. Word is they might not vote CPC but they "sure as hell aren't voting Liberal anymore".
Lynch will come out on top is a three way race.
10 01 06 JB
This one will be close. Andy Scott has won this riding by relying on vote split of the right leaning PC and Aliance parties in the past. Now the NDP have a strong, well spoken and community minded candidate able to draw left leaning Liberals to him. Pat Lynch who is a Conservative party inside, yet widely unknown to the voting public,should draw a close enough vote and support from his core base to win.
16 12 05 J.P. Kirby
Andy Scott will win this one and the Conservatives will have nobody to blame but themselves. While Pat Lynch isn't as big a blowhard on the scale of Kent Fox, he hasn't given any undecided voters a reason to vote for him. His campaign so far is nearly non-existent (few signs, and his website only went up this week). I can only think that this campaign would be different if Raj won the Tory nomination - even with a split right, he came the closest of anyone to beating Scott back in 2000. There are still enough dyed-in-the-wool Conservative voters for them to finish ahead of the NDP, at least.
14 12 05 Anon
Andy Scott has a stronghold on this riding. While he may have suffered as minister of Indian Affairs, he's done a lot of good works for the riding. Pat lynch is a lacklustre candidate and has done little to promote himself. So far I have only seen two billboards for him and ZERO lawn placards. John Carty is a familiar name and has lots of visibility in this campaign and will likely gain more votes this time around but not enough to defeat Andy.
13 12 05 D.W.C.
Look at the results from previous elections. In 2000 the then Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives won a combined vote of nearly 55%.in Fredericton.
In 2004 the new Conservatives won less than 35%; more than two thirds of the old PC voters defected from a new party that didn't represent their province or their values. Half of those voters went to the Liberals, half went to the NDP despite Martin's last minute strategic voting campaign. There is no way the new Conservatives can win this riding.
The NDP won 17% despite a very limited campaign in 2004, improving their vote from 6% in 2000. In 2006 the party is running the same strong candidate, with a full-time team and more resources.
The new Conservatives have seen their voters move to the NDP in Atlantic Canada during the last week, even as national support for the New Democrats has ebbed. With the NDP campaigning on a more centrist platform that resonates with PC voters the party should gain in small urban areas like Fredericton. The new Conservatives haven't been helped by nominating a candidate from the Alliance wing of the party, who won a bitter nomination fight against the PC wing. Many red Tories have moved to the NDP, some to the Liberals, and this realignment makes the race in Fredericton an interesting one to watch.
The Liberals could hold the seat, the NDP could pick it up, but the one sure thing is that the new Conservatives can't win here, not this time.
12 12 05 Irish Observer
Back at this again. Spoke with Liberal insider from NB, and they feel this is one riding not to watch. Scott still very popular, has delivered the goods to the riding, and has kept a relatively low scandal free profile. Central New Brunswick does not belong to the former big Blue Machine. It is Liberal.
07 12 05 N_D
At the conservative nomination convention Lynch defeated the other candidates not based on beating them, but by the fact that they all split the PC vote. He won by 2 votes over Raj Venugopal and his support was clearly mostly that of those who had previously supported the Reform/CA party, as he was one of Allan Neill's biggest supporters in the 2000 election. Lynch is not representative of the majority of more moderate conservatives in the riding and will have a hard time competing against Scott based on the fact that in winning the nomination he alienated a large number of moderates. John Carty landed the NDP nomination again and he'll definitely see a rise in support which will hurt Scott's support from the left, but will not split the vote enough let Lynch win. Scott will hold this seat by at least the same margin he beat Kent Fox, and I wouldn't be surprised if its his biggest win yet and the NDP finishes a close third or even second.
13 12 05 B Smith
This could only be a Tory pick up if Conservative support drastically increases in the Maritimes. While there is a natural base here, the Conservative candidate does not appear to have the name recognition needed to unseat Andy Scott. I find it hard to believe that Andy Scott is tough to beat, I really don't think he's done anything spectacular in the riding or on the national scene, as a minister.
Some MP's are hard to beat because they are solid constituency politicians, while Andy Scott might be to some, I've never viewed him this way. Look for the NDP and Tories to increase there vote take in Fredericton, but don't expect anything but an Andy Scott win.
30 11 05 mere boulard
I think even the local tories will only vote for pat lynch with noses firmly held. The man's appeal is even more limited than Kent Fox's, who was endearingly beligerant. Expect another scott victory, with more Carty in a coming in close to second place, but behind lynch.
30 11 05 Zach
This riding will finally return to the Conservatives for the first time since Minister Scott won in 1993. Andy Scott was one of the biggest beneficiaries of vote splitting between the former CA and PC in the country, often winning with less than 35% of the vote. Last election, the CPC had a weak candidate, but now they've nominated someone who will give Mr. Scott a run for his money. It will be close, but this one will go Blue.
30 11 05 DS
After twelve years in office Liberal MP Andy Scott is practically a Fredericton institution, and he can still be found every Saturday meeting his constituents at the local farmer's market. Scott is widely seen as hardworking and effective at delivering for the Fredericton area.
The other declared candidates in this riding are John Carty, the NDP candidate Scott handily defeated in 2004, and Pat Lynch, a Conservative from the Reform-Alliance side of the merger who has succeeded in keeping a low profile since he was nominated back in May. Carty's supporters are loyal but not numerous enough to be a major factor, and Lynch's Alliance ties are enough to make him unpalatable to Fredericton's Red Tories, who made the difference last time and will do so again.
In the 2004 campaign, the Conservative Party targeted this riding as winnable by a Tory. This time around, the list still exists but for some reason, Fredericton seems to have fallen off it. Do they know something we don't? Call this one for Andy Scott.
02 12 05 nbpolitico
This will be a close race to watch. The Conservatives have nominated their top Atlantic organizer Pat Lynch as their candidate and he will likely enjoy a lot of support from party office. It is interesting to note that this was one of three ridings to watch on the CBC first broadcast about close races in 2006. Lynch comes from the Alliance side of the merger but that should not hurt him too much here in that 6 of 8 MLAs elected under the CoR banner in 1991 (CoR was a party of the Reform mantra, small government, no bilingualism, etc) were within this federal riding. Lynch may prove, however, to be a weak candidate as many successful organizers do but he is almost certain to be a stronger performer than Kent Fox who was so humiliated in the early debates in the last vote that he refused to participate in the later ones.
The other factor is the very successful campaign John Carty from the NDP who could increase his share of the vote to over 20% largely at the expense of the Liberals.
All things being equal I will say Andy Scott by a hair, but if Lynch can be as good of a candidate as he is an organizer this riding returns to its Tory blue roots.
01 12 05
Anyone who knows anything about Fredericton knows that Andy Scott will win this time around. Like last time, there will be hardly any vote splitting between the NDP and the Liberals because Andy has gained the confidence of the left wing vote in Fredericton. Likewise, as another has noted, he has brought significant investment to the province, and has gained the confidence of many of the traditional PC voters too. I honestly don't understand how this could be a "too close to call" race.
24 11 05 JD
Scott's handling of his two cabinet portfolios will be an issue this time around. The recent reserve scandals coupled with his earlier SG fiasco are fueling questions of his ability to perform at a cabinet level. Carty is a strong NDP candidate who will pull a relatively strong NDP vote away from Scott allowing the CPC candidate to win by a nose.
22 11 05 S.Staples
The Fredericton riding won't change. Andy Scott has done a reasonably good job as MP. He has attracted lots of federal investments here in this region. The Military has really been bolstered at CFB Gagetown and the amount of research activity in Fredericton has exploded. Voters will remember that Andy is the senior cabinet minister for Atlantic Canada, an opportunity that must not be tossed aside. Plus Mr. Scott is very close to the people, with his regular town hall forums and weekly stops at the Market. Conservatives don't have a shot with Stephen Harper. He isn't saleable in Atlantic Canada and their policies are not Atlantic friendly.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
This is definitely one the Conservatives should be able to win, but thanks to their stupid choice of choosing a bad candidate again, Andy Scott will be re-elected. Besides Andy Scott has improved in every election since 1997 so I see no reason why he won't again. I won't go as far as predicting the Conservatives will get less than 30%, since there are some people who will always vote Conservative no matter what, but I will predict they won't get above 40%, which is what they need to win this.
16 07 05 Former Frederictonian in B.C.
One thing is now certain about the next federal election in Fredericton: The Conservatives WILL NOT win, and have no hope of it. Even a fromer PC candidate like Baird, Gregg, or Venugopal would have faced an uphill battle against Scott. Now that Pat Lynch is the Conservative nominee, their defeat is certain. Pat Lynch appears very much to be a garden variety Tory, focusing on the same tired mantra. Looking at the nomination results, he also appearred to have little appeal to the supporters of other camps, since his vote total remained very stable until the last ballot. He clearly was the Alliance wing's choice, and the Fredericton Tories have once again selected a candidate who will hold the core social conservative vote but little else. The Tories will be lucky to muster 30% of the vote here.
Another thing is also now certain about the next election here: The NDP will be a force to be reakoned with. John Carty secured the NDP nomination here, and all the signs both locally and federally suggest that he will increase his vote share over 2004. The question is, by how much?
18 05 05 Spraguer
I went to the Conservative nomination meeting - to observe, certainly not as a member of the party - and the chasm between PC and Reform/Alliance is as big as ever in Fredericton. At least three PC-types who could have given Scott a run for his money - Venugopal, Gregg, and Baird - were passed over by the Alliance-dominated crowd in favour of Pat Lynch. Lynch, who in his nomination speech noted that "debates do not win elections" is a Kent Fox clone - which is bad for the Conservatives.
Most of the people who will be voting for Pat Lynch in the election were there in the room when he was nominated.
The NDP cannot be overlooked in this riding. NDP support tripled in the 2004 election, and could continue to rise if a strong candidate emerges. That support level (18%) is significant enough that an NDP win is possible with the perfect confluence of circumstances. With the Conservatives shooting themselves in the foot, "Red Tories" who cannot stomach voting for either Lynch or Scott will consider voting NDP, if the candidate is a strong one.
The fate of this riding - and indeed of Mr. Scott's job - could be in the hands of the Fredericton NDP Riding Association.
04 05 05 full name
Fredericton has a Tory tradition, voting for that party every year until Andy Scott got in in the sweep of 1993. Notwithstanding what I'm about to say below, Andy Scott remains popular for the perks he's brought to the city, and that is at least part of the reason he keeps getting re-elected.
But in the last 3 elections the PCs/CPC have targeted this riding, but something always submarines them. In 1997 there was Reform siphoning off most of the social conservative votes, plus a late start to a lackluster campaign by Cleveland Allaby. In 2000 there was a bitter nomination fight, a candidate with little previous local name recognition in Raj Venugopal, and of course the Alliance. The stars looked aligned for the CPC here in 2004 - Adscam, a united right, and the strongest NDP candidate in years to take leftist votes from Scott. They blew it by nominating the abrasive Kent Fox, who decided to sit out some later debates to avoid embarrasing himself further. Voters were turned off and Scott got the largest margin of victory yet.
This is why I'm holding off on a prediction for now. The CPC nominating convention is next Thursday, and it seems 5000 different people have announced their intentions to run, including (among others) Raj Venugopal and Barbara Baird (provincial PC leader for a short time when the Liberals had every seat). Once that picture clears (and the NDP's to a lesser extent), we can assess Andy Scott's re-election chances.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Andy Scott should probably hold his riding, although historically this was a conservative stronghold so this is amongst the top five Atlantic Canada ridings for the Conservatives to target (if you exclude the ones they already hold). However, for whatever reason, Conservatism seems to have declined in this riding since the Conservatives only got 33% last time around while in the 2003 Provincial election, the liberals won the majority of ridings within this riding's boundaries and the Provincial PCs averaged in the high 30s. Ironically, this is where the former far right COR Party was strong and the Reform/Alliance party had some of its best showings in Atlantic Canada in this riding, so I am not sure what has caused the change. Perhaps, with its past, it could swing back to the Conservatives if they can narrow the lead in Atlantic Canada or pull ahead of the liberals.

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