Update/Mise à jour:
4:40 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:47 AM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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John Welsford Bethell
Danny Gay
Charles Isaac Hubbard
Jeannette Manuel-Allain
Mike Morrison

Charles Hubbard

2004 Result/Résultats:
Charles Isaac Hubbard
Michael J. Morrison
Hilaire Rousselle
Garry Sanipass

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 nbpolitico
With the likely strong showing for Danny Gay in his former, largely French, provincial riding almost wholly at the expense of Hubbard and the surge in Tory support (the Omnifacts Bristol poll on ATV tonight shows the Tories slightly ahead 42-41 in NB) this one will be a nail bitter election night thanks to the spoiler effect of Mr. Gay.
11 01 06 M Evans
I foresee a victory for the CPC candidate in this riding. The riding went Liberal in 2004 by a fairly comfortable margin (15,647 - 9,448 for the CPC). There are three things which work in the CPC favour this time, however. First, and most importantly, there is an independent candidate running this time who is a former Liberal MLA. This will split the Liberal vote especially among those disgruntled with Paul Martin. Second, there is less fear of Stephen Harper in this riding than there was in the last election. Third, people tend to vote only when they have a reason and the sponsorship scandal/other scandals which keep coming out are exactly the thing to drive disgruntled voters to the polls. In short, expect Mike Morrison to win this riding by a hair.
26 12 05 td
This riding has only gone PC once since 1957 and that was during the PC sweep of 1984, so I don't foresee a CPC victory here this time in this riding.
04 12 05
Victoire du Libéral Charles Hubbard. Ce comté depuis sa formation en 1988 à toujours voter en faveur du parti Libéral avec des majorités assez confortable. Lors de la prochaine élection le député actuel sera réélu avec une majorité de 7000 voix.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
This riding has had history of voting for both the Liberals, and the Progressive Conservatives. What separates it from the rest of English NB, is it does not have a history of voting for the Reform Alliance. Despite the CoR leader running in this riding, in the 1991 provincial election, they won only one seat in what is today the federal riding. The CoR has always does poorly here, as has the Alliance, and Reform. Miramichi has a somewhat sizable French minority, and being surrounded by Acadians to the north and south gives this constituency a different mindset form the rest of English NB. If the PC Party was running, perhaps they could win, the CPC will need more work before they can win ridings like this.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This should be an easy liberal win considering Charles Hubbard is generally a right leaning liberal. Also the fact the Gun registry's headquarters are located here will also hurt the Conservatives since it will cost those people their jobs when the Conservatives scrap the gun registry.

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