Update/Mise à jour:
11:21 AM 19/01/2006

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La prévision a changé
11:22 PM 05/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Ted Alexander
Chris Marquis
Garry Moore
David Tilson

David Tilson

2004 Result/Résultats:
David Tilson
Murray Calder
Ted Alexander
Rita Landry
Ursula Ellis

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17 01 06 Tacitus
While the Federal Liberals may be collapsing, this local Campaign has all the earmarks of a dog-fight between the refreshing Garry Moore and the complacent David Tilson. Five elections in four years in this riding will cause many to stay home on election day & this will benefit the Liberals. Also, using Library of Parliament statistics, the Garry Moore's Liberals have revealed Tilson's atrocious attendance & voting record in the House. He has the missed 27 recorded votes, twice the average absences of other MP's. He is ranked 269th of the 308 MP's for absences, apparently. All of this was made public in recent days & the local newspapers have been all over it. Many Tories are openly questioning support for Tilson this time round, as he has a well-known reputation (even among supporters) for disappearing after election day. Many Tories are not-so-privately fondly recalling the days of Liberal Murray Calder's 10 years as MP in the 1990's. Local wags also remember that Tilson was a passionate supporter of Mike Harris, though Tilson has distanced himself, even in the All-Candidate Meetings, from the Common Sense Revolution. Moore is getting alot of support from soft-Tories & this could make it very interesting in the final days! Don't count out the Liberals yet in Dufferin-Caledon!
02 01 06 TP
It is true that portions of Caledon (particularly Bolton) have voted Liberal in the past, but the influence of Tory-rich Dufferin County is too great to cause an upset this election. Calder rode the '93 Liberal wave but was defeated in 2004 despite his incumbency status and social conservatism. While I feel that Tilson is generally arrogant and a useless representative, I predict that I am in the minority and he will return to Ottawa. The support for the Green Party was substantial (by Green Party terms) last election, and if they are taking votes away from anyone, the NDP and Liberal candidates will suffer.
25 12 05 love, sydney
Surprising that so many are handing this to the Tories after last election's close call. I'd like to argue this idea of incumbency -- certainly there is a stronger advantage for the name who is trying to retain the seat, but history shows that short minority parliaments result in fewer incumbents returned, a slight edge especially if there is a change of government. Whether tories win more seats in Ontario or 905 may be irrelevant here, as Garry Moore is a well-respected, youthful candidate who has a large machine at his disposal. I'm giving this to Moore, even tho I believe the Tories will add 10 Ontario seats overall.
24 12 05 El Predicto
A strong Tory riding, but I'm going to make a strange prediction here. The Green Party has traditionally done well here on the strength of some of the northern parts of the riding such as Mono, Mulmer and east Luther. They pull well in those parts even without really trying. The only reason the NDP were able to pull ahead of them in the last provincial byelection was because they threw everything but the kitchen sink into the riding so they wouldn't get embarrassed again. Consider that the Greens here tap into a traditionally Tory vote and it's possible -- barely -- that they'll sap enough Tory and "none of the above" voters to allow the Liberals to come up the middle. It's just possible.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this now into the Conservative column as this time around there is no Liberal incumbent and the Tories have gained approximately 3 points in Rural Ontario. This is a very Conservative riding, consider that John Tory got 56% in the most recent provincial by-election. Off Course the Tories won't do that well, but I don't think the Liberal lead is a wide enough for a liberal pick-up and they aren't running a star candidate and neither is Murray Calder running again.
15 12 05 MSCH
Be warned! The Tories are way over-confident in a riding that is quickly changing. The Liberals took a sizable majority of the polls in Caledon last time, and they will increase on this in 2006. Also working for the Liberals is the very weak leadership of Mr. Tilson, the former PC who has a shaky record in the House, and virtually never leaves the Orangeville region.
15 10 05 A.S.
Noteworthy in that--perhaps as vindication of Jim Harris's Red Tory thrust (though the Niagara Escarpment's presence and provincial leader Frank DeJong's record of running here plays its part, too)--this is where the Greens scored their best Ontario finish in 2004 (also their only 3rd place, ahead of the NDP). And contrary to certain bold predictions, a double-digit percentage was beyond them even here. David Tilson didn't win by much, and there was something of a blue/red divide between the "Dufferin" and "Caledon" (especially the GTA-sprawl-fringe southern reaches of Caledon) ends of the riding. But through his being there at all now, coupled with his prior provincial record and that of the successive provincial party leaders who replaced him, Tilson's chances of reelection verge on excellent. Remember that after defeating Liberal incumbent Mavis Wilson by a similarly slight margin in 1990, Tilson clobbered her by 40+ points in 1995. Of course, CPC would have to hope for a Mike Harris-scaled landslide for it to be 1995 redux here...
09 05 05 M. Lunn
I earlier meant to mark this is too close to call since this is definitely not a liberal riding. I only left open the possibility of a liberal win since the liberals have seen a strong re-bound in Ontario so if the momentum continues enough, they could take it, but I would say that is extremely unlikely, especially considering that last time around, Murray Calder had the incumbent advantage whereas this time around David Tilson has that. I expect the Conservatives to get around 45-50% and liberals in the mid 30s. Once the writ is dropped, I will mark this as a conservative pick-up if the Tories can stay within 10 points of the liberals in Ontario.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Unless there is a major Conservative meltdown in Ontario, David Tilson should be re-elected. Last time around it was a close race due to the incumbent factor, but that likely won't be a factor this time around and if it is, it will favour the Conservatives. This is also outside the GTA and part of the Blue Belt that except on rare occassions, almost always elects right wing parties. Nevertheless, I don't expect David Tilson to get the 56% John Tory got in the recent by-election, nor do I expect the liberals to only get 18%. The Liberals will still get above 30% and at best the Conservatives might get in the low 50s, but probably upper 40s is my best guess.
04 05 05 Brandon
In a recent provincial by-election, Ontario PC Party leader John Tory swept this riding with 56% of the vote. The only thing red in Dufferin-Caledon that night was the cheek colour of the Liberal candidate who barely carried 16% of the vote. The NDP got 14% and the Greens, 10%. Besides maybe 1 provincial election, Dufferin County has been PC forever. Federally, it was the same way until the PC-Reform/Allaince vote split that saw Liberal Murrey Caulder slip up the middle. David Tilson, the former MPP and now Tory MP defeated him in the last election. The rural portions are very socially conservative here. Tilson is more of a red Tory too. So, expect an increased Conservative victory this time around.
03 05 05 RWA
This ridng has more practice voting Conservative in recent years than any other.

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