Update/Mise à jour:
11:44 PM 20/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:05 PM 08/05/2005
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Etobicoke North

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
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Progressive Canadian
Alexander T. Bussmann
Roy Cullen
Anna Di Carlo
George Jan Havlovic
Amanjit Singh Khroad
Ali Naqvi
George Szebik

Hon. Roy Cullen

2004 Result/Résultats:
Roy Cullen
Rupinder Nannar
Cesar Martello
William Ubbens
Mir Kamal
George Szebik
Anna Di Carlo

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 12 05 MH
Since coming into existence in 1976, Etobicoke North has gone Conservative just once (by fewer than 900 votes), in the 1984 general election. Since then it has been safely Liberal. Roy Cullen won it in a 1996 by-election, when the Reform candidate came in a respectable second, but since then Mr Cullen has won by huge margins. Barring a totally unexpected swing in Liberal and Conservative political fortunes, he should have no difficulty winning again, burying whatever sacrificial lambs the Tories and NDP manage to talk into becoming candidates here.
10 10 05 A.S.
Even if Tories have won here in the past, that was when demographics were 180% from what they were now. Today, this beleaguered turf is terminally auto-Liberal, with an opposition scenario of total motley throwaway/fringe-campaign disarray. The most one can hope for in the name of "competitiveness" might be a colourful suicide run (surely playing up the crime issue) by far-right ReformaTory councillor Rob Ford--and knowing him, he'd go for it. If the NDP came to their senses, they'd do the logical thing and usurp the Tories for nominal second place; but anything more would have depended on their winning their 19 2004 seats in Ontario rather than across Canada. Well, as long as Roy Cullen remains their dependable backbench proxy for a community service office, the constituents are content in their complacency...
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This is probably the most left-leaning ridings of the three Etobicoke ridings so if the liberals can take the other two and the NDP are not a factor here, Roy Cullen should easily win this riding again. He will almost certainly get above 50% and probably above 60%.
07 05 05 Brandon
The Tories have won Etobicoke North in the past by small margins. The Liberals won here by a huge margin last time and should therefore have no problem keeping this in the red column; along with the majority of 416 ridings.

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