Update/Mise à jour:
11:13 AM 04/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:33 AM 02/05/2005
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Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Barry Devolin
Andy Harjula
Anne MacDermid
Greg Walling

Barry Devolin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Barry Devolin
John O'Reilly
Gil J. McElroy
Tim Holland
Peter Vogel
Charles Olito

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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03 01 06 A.S.
Re the "CHP win" comment 'way below, beyond the fact that the provincial counterpart to CHP is FCP, this seat's really more frontier-libertarian than the heavy CHP/FCP-ballast kind of Bible Belt--though it still makes for an ultra-Tory sexy electoral mix of SoCon and ProGun. But I wouldn't predict a "largest Conservative victory" here, either; not only is the competition stiff, it's also a seat on the geographic borderline of GTA/Muskoka moderation, with an ex-Reform incumbent to deal with. But them's only technicalities. All it prevents is "largest". It's sure not going to impede Barry Devolin's return to Commons...
17 12 05 Tyson
This riding will be the largest Conservative victory in Ontario, Devolin is a very popular MP, who has overwhelming backing in the riding and there is a huge backlash against the Sponsorship Scandal and more so against the gun registry. Devolin has hundreds of signs, and those are just people who asked for them specifically, and Walling is a weak candidate who is a poor debater. Effortless Conservative win. prediction: Barry Devolin 52%, Greg Walling 27, Anne McDermid 17%, Green 4%
07 12 05 Rural Roots
THe recent Liberal poster was correct on two points. There is some unhappiness with Harper among the "Red Tories" in Lindsay, & one prominent member has indeed pulled a "Belinda". However this was motivated by self interest, rather than any political reason. Secondly, some in the Federal Association are diehard Alliance members who don't care for John Tory. The bottom line is however, both the federal & provincial associations endorse Devolin, as does local MPP Laurie Scott.
The Liberals may break even in Lindsay, but will be swamped by the larger rural vote. This campaign is merely a "get to know me" effort by the Liberal, positioning himself for the next election
07 12 05 College Student
There is NO WAY in 10 years Greg Walling and his Lindsay Liberals will be able to compete against Barry Devolin. NO WAY...
Think about this...
Lindsay and area have the 2nd highest percentage in ON of senior citizens in the riding. They are some of the most likely people to vote conservative and vote at all for that matter. Not to mention the heavy rural (conservative) population.
Greg Walling does not have enough of a name in the area to actually come with a win. If it was John O'reilly...I might give the liberals more of a chance...
I predict...that like the Ontario election in this riding last time with Laurie Scott and Jason Ward (the young new liberal thinkning he'll sweep), The Conservatives will come with an overwhelming defeat!
And the NDP have no idea how to run a campaign in the area...Anne McDermid??? Anne Who???
exactly my point...
conservative win here for sure!
06 12 05 M. Lunn
Last time around they had John O'Reilly who had the incumbent advantage and if Barry Devolin could win by over 10 points, there is no reason to believe he won't do it again. Besides this riding is right next door to Cheryl Gallant who is even more of a wingnut and yet she won in a landslide, so I cannot see Barry Devolin's social conservatism hurting him, if anything it will help him.
01 12 05 left leaning realist
There may have been 5000 vote win last time, but Devolin is further right than even this Bible Belt riding can handle. That issue itself has lead to infighting within the local Tory party. Combine that with prominent members about town "boycotting" the party and urging others to do so, due to Provincial Issues, (Primarily dissatisfaction with John Tory) These factors will conspire to bring down the Tory Legacy that for so long was just taken for granted in this riding.
The only chance they have is if the NDP picks up a sizable portion of the Liberal vote, failing that, the Liberals will win.
29 11 05 ruralroots
No contest here, Conservatives would like to take some of Devolin's likely plurality, & spread it across other close ridings. Looking at 50% minimum Conservative vote. Nobody outside of Lindsay knows the Liberal candidate.
12 10 05 College Student
Conservative is the only possible suggestion here!
No other candidate will be able to come close to the increasing conservative movement in this riding. Barry Devolin, and Laurie Scott(the local MPP) are making strong connections with this ridings high senior population. Recently at the Local Lindsay fair, Laurie made a strong speech supporting Lindsay and its consevative values. She rallied the crowd like no other politician has done in the area since Leslie Frost! Devolin will ride off this consevative push to a victory in the next election!
18 07 05 Craig
One of the ridings that the Liberals only won in the past on a heavily split vote, Barry Devolin used the united right to put it back in the Conservative column and it is a safely blue seat once again. This time, it won't even be close. Liberal social policies like gay marriage are not popular here, and the passing of Bill C-38 angered many here. That will keep this riding out of reach of any competition. Predicted results: CPC 54%, LIB 30%, NDP 12%, GRN 4%, others 2%.
20 05 05 Conservative Friend
This riding, used to split between reform and PC, and always went to the liberal candidate. However, with the Conservative aligned together, there is no doubt that this riding will go liberal again. Barry Devolin, and even his provincial conservative counterpart Laurie Scott have been working hard to keep this riding conservative. This riding is SO conservative that when in the provincial election Laurie Scott did not state a stance on Gay Marriage that many could have predicted a Christian Heritage Party win! However, when the rumour of many votes going the CHP way, Laurie put a large ad in the paper stating her pro-traditional marriage stance. The win was a shoe-in! Barry follows much in the same. His constant work with seniors (of which, this riding has the second most in ontario) has proven to benefit his campaign. CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE...is the name to pic in this game.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Part of the Ontario bible belt and I believe one of the most Conservative ridings in Ontario so former Reformer Barry Devolin should have no trouble being re-elected.
27 04 05 Charlene
The riding is very Conservative, and Mr. Devolin has done an outstanding job as our MP, and I'm sure our riding will give him another win here.

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