Election Prediction Project
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Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:58 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:02 PM 07/05/2004

Constituency Profile
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Barry Devolin
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tim Holland
Gil McElroy
Charles Olito
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John O'Reilly
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Peter Vogel

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Haliburton-Victoria-Brock (98.4%)
John O'Reilly
Parry Sound-Muskoka (0.6%)
Hon. Andy Mitchell
Peterborough (1.0%)
Peter Adams

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,738 34.13%
15,437 31.47%
14,466 29.49%
2,398 4.89%
10 0.02%

(222/222 polls, 79442/79442 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Parry Sound-Muskoka
(3/197 polls, 448/64242 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(4/240 polls, 805/85991 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Barry Devolin has what Essex's got, a Conservative candidate who was an Alliance adviser and ran as a Reformer when Reform first came to Ontario plus he is the exact opposite of his provincial counterpart Laurie Scott, who will be challenged by a Reformer provincially next time, guaranteed. John O'Reilly has been a good Liberal but even he sees that Team Martin will be the end of the line for many of his caucus members from Ontario and now only wishes he had pulled a Chris Hodgson. The voter, deep in the hinterland called Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, have had the luck of having one of the most united Conservative associations in Ontario, better than even Cambridge, and unlike them, have kept much of their principled members together as one team.
09/06/04 BMW
Email: [hidden]
Barry Devolin will be the next sitting MP for Haliburton-kawaratha Lakes-Brock. This riding has a very long and strong history of being true Blue Conservative. John's win was pure luck considering the Reform/Alliance and PC's came within 2-5% (second to third place variance) of winning in 2000 with not much difference in the previous two federal elections. Johnnie O refuses to acknowledge that he's standing between two iron rails, one PC the other Alliance, and that light coming toward him isn't a firefly.
02/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The encyclopedia entry for Ontario hinterland vote-splitter delirium, three elections in a row. If anything *can* forestall the inevitable, it's the fact that an ex-Reformer rather than ex-PC is running--Laurie Scott would have been the more "palatable" and poetically appropriate choice (esp. given her father), but unfortunately, Chris Hodgson had to retire and provide a provincial opening for her to fill--or if the seat went "B.C. Interior" on us with a big bubble of NDP/Green swallowing up a whole lot of AllianceToryness. (WEHT Dennis Drainville, anyway?)
25/05/04 J
Email: [hidden]
This riding has a chance for change, decades ago it used to be heavily socialist thanks to all the lumber mills and the like, so a return to leftist govt. has just been a matter of time. The NDP will do better this time around even if it doesn't win.
06/05/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
I am stunned that this riding has not already been declared for the Conservatives. The combined total of the P.C. and Alliance vote in the last election was 61%...to the Liberal's 34%. That's the whole story. Even though a huge number of former P.C.'s are NOT going to vote for the new Conservative Party, there is no way in H--L the Conservative party is going to lose a riding like this one.
06/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
21 CPC predictions, to 1 liberal in this riding, and for good reason too. I am not going to break my back with stats and numbers here, but rather, and going to state some simple facts
1 - look at how close the alliance came last time
2 - take a look at the pre 93 results
3 - take a look at the provincial election
4 - tell me a rural eastern ontario riding is not conservative by nature
things are just coming togthor for the CPC in eastern ontario, this riding will be an easy win, the candidate could likely win even if he locked himself in his house for the election. Polls say the CPC will take 25 seats in ontario, this is one of them.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I think based on the fact that this riding was Conservative until 1993 is a good indicator that this riding will go back to the Conservatives in 2004. In 1993, 1997, and in 2000 the PC and the Alliance both had a combined total that far outnumbered that of the Liberals.
Email: [hidden]
Consider these facts. (1) With the NDP in single digits, it'll take more than 45% to win this seat. (2) The Liberals haven't hit 45% in this riding for more than 40 years. (3) Liberal MP John O'Reilly - who has never hit 38% - was demoted by Paul Martin from Parliamentary Secretary to backbencher. Conclusion: even Martin gets it here, this riding is going back to Conservative blue.
19/04/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
O'Reilly is Screwed with a capital "S". The numbers here spell total disaster for the Liberals. The right-wing vote could plummet (won't happen) and Devolin would still probably beat O'Reilly, despite the latter's incumbency advantage.
19/04/04 One Angry Tory
Email: [hidden]
You have got to be kidding! The riding that was owned by Clayton Hodgson and Bill Scott in perpetuity combined with a Liberal candidate that consistently polls 33% of the vote and you call this riding too close???
I will go out on a line (actually it's so thick we might as well call it a bridge) and say that the riding that sent Laurie Scott to Queens Park last year will EASILY send Barry Devolin to the House of Commons.
(Note: for all those Liberals who are screaming that 1+1 doesn't equal 2? I can remember as a PC campaign manager, that 50% of your resources went to fighting the Liberals and 50% went to fighting the Alliance. Obviously we have a spending swing where 100% of a VERY CONSERVATIVE RIDING will go to send that joker O'Reilly to the unemployment line!!)
19/04/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
You can tell this will be a Conservative victory when John O'Reilly is running around scared like Chicken Little. He was caught on that Ontario Liberal Caucus leaked audio tape (to SUN Media) sweating bullets and has been on his hands and knees in various media sources crying for Martin to hold the election off (presumably to retain his seat for a few more months). Provincially, Laurie Scott was one of the only brand new Progressive Conservative MPP's to get elected last fall. Plus, Barry Devolin has run before for the Reform Party (1993) so therefore has name recognition and knows how to put on a winning campaign.
16/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're surprised that this riding has not been placed in the Conservative column, yet Oxford has. We feel that these two ridings have alot in common when you look at the last election results. A clear 3-way race for the Libs, PC and CA has now become a 2 way race with the two right parties merged and the Libs seemingly honking everyone off and going nowhere in the polls. Granted that Oxford's incumbant isn't running but H-KL-B's incumbant is (gives a tad of an edge to the Libs). In the end we're sure it'll be clear conservative win.
14/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Barry Devolin wins here -- easily. Look at the numbers. He has the Hodgson machine and did very well on his own here as the Reformer in '93.
08/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding was close last time between the Alliance and the Liberals. That, added to a strong PC candidate is reason enough. Wait, there's more... Eastern Ontario is showing high poll numbers for right-wing parties ontPC - CPC AND this riding is historically PC. I have no doubt that this riding will vote CPC this election.
03/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
This riding will have the pleaaure of probably being the first to be called Conservative on election night. The demographics, the issues, the united Conservatives all suggest that this will be strong blue whenever the elction is called.
29/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Liberal strategists are talking about losing 25 seats in Ontario.
If you think they'll win here, I'd like to see your list of the 25 where they're going to lose.
29/03/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
The absolute safest bet for a new Conservative riding. The numbers don't lie. Liberals need more than 45% of PC vote to go to them... not very likely.
27/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Give away for the Conservatives, in the wake of ADSCAM the Tories will take it with at least 60% of the vote. If their was no scandal they would still win. 60% combined in 2000 spells Conservative victory. Devolin will be new MP
24/03/04 B.M.S.
Email: [hidden]
If the Conservatives were to only gain one seat in Ontario, this would be it. A matter of fact, the Canadian Alliance came dangerously close to getting this one in 2000, losing to the Liberals by a mere few hundred votes. The only reason they didn't win was because they had a star candidate (Laurie Scott, daughter of a long-serving former P.C. MP) who ran for the PC Party and was just able to take enough votes away from the Alliance. Therefore, I would advise John O'Reilly, the Liberal incumbent, to start updating his job resume.
20/03/04 RC
Email: [hidden]
Now that the Coup d'etat is complete, centre-right Tories will be seeing just what Stephen Harper is all about. This man has said a lot of disturbing things over the years. The Liberals will be making some serious hay over Harper's lack of judgement with respect to Quebec, the Maritimes and the fire wall commentary he put together concerning Alberta. True tories know that there is only one leader out there who speaks the language of the centre right. Martin will sweep in to office on a red tory tide. O'Rielly will simply be along for the ride.
20/03/04 WD
Email: [hidden]
Note that Laurie Scott won this seat for the PCs last fall, one of only two non-incumbent PCs to win. Note that she is also on the Interim National Council of the Conservative Party. If she can't put this riding on the Conservatives' "A" list, no one can.
20/03/04 Colin Pye
Email: [hidden]
Under its old name, Haliburton-Victoria-Brock, this riding was one of only a handful of genuine three-way races in 2000 between the Liberals, PC's and Alliance.
Until 1993, it had been Tory practically since Confederation.
This riding will be Tory again.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
The result from 2000 easily suggests that this seat will go Conservative. Even if 25% or so of those old PC votes go Liberal, enough Liberal votes will fall victim to the NDP to push this seat into the Conservatives' hands. Tory gain.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: gabbyjuk@yahoo.ca
This riding will be high on the Conservative list. It was the only riding in Ontario with a combined 60% conservative vote in the last election. That spells a Tory gain.
17/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
This riding is a conservative lock - Just look at the numbers from last time. For added insurance the Conservatives have nominated a Star candidate in Barry Devolin. Devolin, a home grown Haliburton boy, has made a name for himself in both Ottawa and at Queen's Park. As a senior staff memeber under the Harris governement, Devolin developed a reputation for staying calm under pressure and getting things done. Your looking at the Best rookie MP Ottawa has seen in a long time.
16/03/04 RWA
This riding had the highest combined conservative % in 2000. Classic case of vote splitting will go Tory.
15/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
The past results from this riding showed the need for uniting the right. Now with the sponsorship scandal it looks like a conservative gain.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #2.
The closest three way race in Ontario last time around; less than 5% between first and third. The bad news for the Liberals is that second and third have merged, and even if 45% of the PC's abandon the new party and vote Liberal, it won't be enough.

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