Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 AM 21/01/2006

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3:12 PM 22/01/2006
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Hamilton Mountain
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Chris Charlton
Christian Heritage
Stephen Downey
Don Graves
Bill Kelly
Paul Lane
Susan Wadsworth

Beth Phinney

2004 Result/Résultats:
Beth Phinney
Chris Charlton
Tom Jackson
Jo Pavlov
Paul Lane

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Bug Eyed Pete
The NDP smell Valeri's blood in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and are going to put everything they have into that riding. That means Charlton is on her own and without an election day team, Charlton will get beat on the streets by the Bill Kelly campaign organization which kept the Phinney team and added a lot of new strength. Kelly will be the only Liberal in Hamilton. Better luck next time for Charlton.
19 01 06 langlois
Chris Charlton has really been applying the pressure with phone calls and laeflets over the last week. I have seen many many new NDP signs spring up and things might just end up with her in the lead. I drive down Upper Gage every day and now it's like an NDP convention.
18 01 06 Chicken Wing Charlie
Hamilton Mountain has the largest Liberal base in southern Ontario. How else to you explain Beth Phinney winning here, even in 1988 when the federal Tories took a second majority. Bill Kelly has been around politics long enough to recognize this was the case and that's why he gave up his television show to run. Bill knew he'd be going to Ottawa.
Chris Charlton has run and run and run again on the mountain but there isn't enough of an NDP base vote here for any New Democrat to win. As others have mentioned, the lack of a Tom Jackson level candidate for the Conservatives means a section of that vote returning to the Liberal fold, expecially when you have such a well liked candidate as Bill Kelly is.
This one won't be near as close as people think.
16 01 06 Who's Socks?
When the Tories couldn't talk the very popular local councillor, Tom Jackson into run again, Hamilton Mountain became a safe Liberal riding.
A large number of Jackson's vote will return to the Liberal fold and help another popular local councillor, Bill Kelly hold off another attempt by Chris Charlton to hold public office. Once again the NDP will be the victims of strategic voting but this time it will be Tories strategically moving their votes to the Liberals.
16 01 06 grittyguy
This riding will be tough, but it has a large portion of die-hard Liberals in its massive Italian community. There is a reason why Beth Phinney got 50%+ here in 2000. Although the national campaign is not exactly helping there is enough of a Liberal base here to pull thorugh. The drop in Liberal support last time can be largely attributed to Jackson's personal popularity, which Kelly now has. Look to see Bill in Ottawa.
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
Only a fool would make a certain prediction for this riding at this point in time (the only one in the Hamilton area that is that uncertain). In our opinion, up until recently, the Liberals had the edge with the NDP second. The lack of a star candidate in the Conservatives ensured that a good chunk of Jackson's 2004 vote would return to the Liberals. This would counteract the loss of Liberal votes due to Beth's retirement. NDP votes would probably not change all that much. Now the Liberals are tanking and the CPC are gaining alot of steam. The end result is a clear 3 way race. Certainly one to watch!
11 01 06 RD
The NDP's choice of Hamilton as the location to launch their platform today (1/11/06) was not by accident. I hear that the NDP is experiencing a groundswell of support in the city, and I would predict that they take both Hamilton East and Hamilton Mountain, along with an easy hold for Christopherson in Hamilton Center.
11 01 06 Justice Jack
This race will likely develop into a three way race. Although Kelly is a better candidate than Phinney, he is going to be hurt significantly by Liberal baggage, especially if the liberal negative attack ads backfire. Furthermore, a stronger conservative national campaign will take away from right leaning liberals. This should make up the gap for the NDP, unless the central conservative campaign were to be so strong that it manages to win this riding for the conservatives. That seems unlikely as the Liberal negative ads, although they may backfire, will likely reduce the conservatives poll numbers a bit.
10 01 06 Chicken Wing Charlie
Nobody seems to be able to figure out that the people of Hamilton love to elect people who've been on TV or radio. Bill Kelly will join that club when he comes out on top of a tight race with the Conservatives. Chris Charlton will finish third but she'll be ready to lose to Marie Bountrogianni in 2007. Kelly will join Tony Valeri as the two Liberals from this region.
04 01 06 david
National Polls sink Bill Kelly. He is feeling the pressure. His attack posture on both Cable 14 and Jamie West was over the top - no packing bags for Ottawa. Race between NDP and Tory. Swing will be enough for local newcomer non politican to beat six time also ran. Mark the riding up for Don Graves as the new MP. Grassroots in sports will make the difference.
06 01 06 Peter K.
This riding is a toss-up. Bill Kelly has name recognition, as does Chris Charlton. Chris did very well last time, and without the power of incumbency, this might be her chance. However this might also be another situation as in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek where the NDP squandered their big chance last time. Additionally, the Conservative candidate is not as strong - these voters may vote NDP or Green in order to avoid voting Liberal. This is a solid two-way race.
06 01 06 JVS
NDP candidate Charlton has a poor record, especially being on the wrong side of just about every issue. She stood against local development and good paying UNIONIZED jobs on Hamilton Mountain. She is following in the footsteps of her husband Brian who as a cabinet minister in the Bob Rae government along with Christopherson, MacKenzie and Allen, who did nothing but throw road blocks at development progress. Look at the LINC/Red Hill Creek Expressways. How ironic for New Democrats to oppose good paying UNION jobs on Hamilton Mountain.
01 01 06 tb
This should be a Liberal--especially with Bill Kelly --but--from the signs it looks like a tossup
The Conservatives had the advance poll by 10% last time over the NDP--they also had a very popular concillor-Tom Jackson--when the election played out the Liberals over the last 2 weeks had scared enough Dippers into their fold--this has been a swing riding and if the Libs tank in Ontario--this one is a tossup--Kelly or no Kelly
01 01 06 A.S.
Now, as far as a "worst beating" for Chris Charlton goes, it'll be tough to top the 4th place/16% she got in 1997--though in a polarized strategic-vote scenario, she *could* fall back to 3rd behind the Tories. Indeed, even without Tom Jackson, there's a slim possibility that a not-so-scary CPC vs the scandal-battered Grits could actually *win* this time on the Mountain. Like, Bill Kelly may be popular, but popular enough to withstand a wave? Even if the tally's skewed by the Tom Jackson factor, the fact that the Tories were little more than 5 points behind the Liberals (and ahead in the advance polls) surely must juice up their *generic* hopes amidst the Mountain's blue-collar bungalow sprawl; if it weren't part of Grit-Dippin' eat'em'raw Hamilton, it'd be of a piece w/seats like Oshawa and Cambridge, that sort of thing. So, gloat at Chris Charlton all you want, it's still an uncertain situation--and even Chrissy C. may not be the prime beneficiary...
30 12 05 Easter Bunny
I have to say I'm surprised this one is still considered in doubt. Bill Kelly is a very popular city councillor and TV host. Chris Charlton has become a joke as she runs on the Monuntain time after time. Last time the Tories managed to get a very well respected city councillor, Tom Jackson to run for them. He got more than 15,000 votes. Without Tom this time the Tory vote will drop sharply to below 10,000 votes. Those votes will slide on over to Kelly and he'll give Charlton the worst beating she's every received at the polls and that's saying a lot.
28 12 05 WL
I think Liberal supporters on this site are being far too optimistic about Ignatieff. This man comes back to Cananda after a 30 year absence carrying a ton of baggage. He has upset members of the Ukrainian community and being a hand-picked parachuted candidate is never a plus. Carrying the Liberal banner means that he will surely see some bleeding of votes that went to Jean Augustine in 2004, as a result of anger over the Gomery report on Liberal corruption.
Conservative Capobianco should be able to increase his vote in this second bid for the seat.
First-time NDP candidate Liam McHugh-Russell should also be able to attract some of the soft Liberal vote and improve his parties numbers over last time. He is young, intelligent, educated and well spoken. He will benefit from proximity to his leader (Jack Layton in Toronto-Danforth) and several other high profile NDP candidates like Chow, Nash and Churley.
There was a fairly big gap in 04, but Ignatieff is highly controvercial and I predict this will be a tight race & perhaps the Conservatives best shot at a Toronto seat. I really don't believe that many will be willing to hold their noses and cast a ballot for a man like Ignatieff, even if they are fairly staunch Liberal supporters. As proof of this last statement, the organization I belong to was prepared to assist the Liberals in E-L when we thought Jean Augustine would be their candidate again. Replacing this competent female visible minority candidate with the likes of Michael Ignatieff put a abrupt end to those plans.
20 12 05 RDESK
Bill Kelly will dominate this very clear two-way race with Mrs. Charlton. I have yet to see a Conservative sign in the ground, and Mr. Kelly had the lead on some key sign placements over Mrs. Charlton. Add to the mix that Mr. Kelly is a strong Catholic and a member of the Knights of Columbus, he will certainly have the ears and eyes of the voting constituents. As we all know, not all vote...the key here is that Mr. Kelly is ensuring that he is visible to those that vote with a choice.
30 11 05 The Invisible Man
Will the fourth (fifth? sixth?) time be the charm for Chris Charlton? As she edges ever closer to winning the John C. Turmel Lifetime Achievement Award (hey, where is ol' Johnny running this time around?), it looks as if she's got a better chance of picking up Hamilton Mountain than ever before. With Beth Phinney's magical ability to win despite the fact that no one knows who she is gone this time around, now destined for Ripley's, Mrs. Charlton seems in a better place than she's been ever before. However, the Liberals pulled off a coup by nominating Bill Kelly, her municipal nemesis in 2000 (in which he handily defeated her), after pushing aside Javid Mirza, who also would have been a strong candidate but is now serving as cannon fodder to David Christopherson. Kelly is a proven vote-getter who has nice hair and says things that make you nod your head (apologies to Fernando Martinez). I don't know the Tory candidate Don Graves (nobody does), but it looks like this will be a two-way race between Kelly and Charlton (with Graves pulling in a respectable standing, as the Tories tend to do). The NDP-voting, steel-fired working class of the Hamilton Mountain of old is still there, but has been displaced with newer Hamiltonians and even newer Mountain dwellers (many of whom used to live in the inner city but have gravitated upward, defying Newton's law). Many of the newer voters seem to trend Liberal, with a big chunk of Conservative votes there as well. Kelly will also fare well in taking votes away from the other candidates in his Council ward, where he seems to be very popular (although I know quite a few Ward 7 denizens who can't stand the man). The dividing line of this riding is still Fennell Avenue, with the Old Mountain living in war housing north of the street and the New Mountain living south of it, especially grouped in newer developments clustered around the Lincoln Alexander Parkway (named after a man we all wish was still a politician). I currently give the edge to Kelly, but Charlton could still surprise. Stay tuned.
27 11 05 JVS
Bill Kelly is definitely a strong candidate. Level headed municipal councillor/tv host, well known and well liked. Look for Liberal gains north of Fennell in Kelly's ward - Ward 7 is largest part of riding. Jackson won support from the Liberals last time in Ward 6, his home ward, but not enough to beat Phinney riding wide, she still polled strong in ward 6. (I live in ward 6) many people who voted for Jackson were voting for him and not the party. Conservative support in the past several elections, I believe, never reached 10,000 votes (combined PC and Ref/CA). I predict NDP will show strong but may come in again around 15,000 votes, watch Jackson supporters to come back to Kelly and some NDP support bleeding north of Fennell. I think some voters may blame NDP for this winter election.
I think the Liberal Party could not have a selected a stronger candidate for Hamilton Mountain.
26 11 05 beanmedic
To clear things up = I'm not a liberal. I wll vote NDP, but it's clear that the liberals will win. There is no way that Bill Kelly will lose. He completely dominates the municipal elections year after year in the same part of the city. after winning 70+% in the last municipal election, and hosting a tv show on the only channel in the city for quite a long time - this is basically locked up. 1. Libs 2. NDP 3. Cons 4. Green
16 08 05 Bear and Ape
The reason why electionpredictions has not labelled this riding for the Liberals is because it is STILL too close to call. Now we realise with a name like "Gritty Guy" you're a little partisan and biased. You do make some very good arguments in favour of a Liberal win, and we are not disputing that. We think that the Liberals do have a very good shot at taking this riding (despite our previous post which was written in May), however one should remain very cautious before making any grandiose predictions, especially when the riding was a good three-way race in 2004. The election call is still many, many months away and a lot can happen in that time. Gomery may report that the Liberals are complete crooks and the proverbial excrement may hit the fan, resulting in a Liberal meltdown. Conversely the Conservatives might continue to sink in the polls as they look more and more like a bunch of religious zealots. The NDP might continue to look saintly and responsible and soar in the polls...or they might not. Bottom line is, this riding is a wild card and the smart money says to hold your horses until at least the fall session of parliament when we can all get a better feel of the political mood.
14 06 05 gritty guy
What is shocking to me is that electionprediction has not already labelled this a Liberal seat. There is no way that Bill Kelly can lose this riding and there are a number of reasons for this.
1) This riding both federally and provincially is the strongest Grit seat in hamilton, with the exception of the last federal election it has been an absolute blowout - usually winning over 50% of the vote
2) Bill Kelly is an extremely well-known and well-liked TV personality and city councillor. His Ward is 45% of the riding, in the last Municipal election he had upwards of 70% of the popular vote.
3) Who is Don Graves? - Last time a man as popular as Kelly ran - and came a strong third, the conservatives had trouble with Jackson and will have a lackluster showing with Graves
4) The NDP are the only threat to the Liberals here, but with Jackson lost soft Tories will vote Liberal. Combined with fizzled out anger over Shelia Copps the NDP will once again drift into insignificance.
Although Kelly may not beat Phinney's best showing, he will come close and this riding will not even be close, anyone who thinks differently is simply kidding themselves.
26 05 05 Justin
Phinney ran a lackluster campaign in 2004 and she still squeaked through. Her vote was hurt in part by the Dalton factor, the Hamilton NDP surge post-Copps and a very strong local Counsellor running for the Conservatives.
Now the Liberals will have a strong city Counsellor who is a former radio personality (and is host of a daily political talk show on CH TV). Bill Kelly came into politics by beating a long-time city alderman (that's what they were called back in the late nineties)...not just beating him but destroying him....and nobody has come close to beating Kelly since.
North of Fennell is strong NDP territory but the growing subdivisions make this very unfriendly territory for the NDP....
Chris Charlton should consider running in the byelection to replace Bill Kelly as city counsellor because she will not win against Kelly.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
While the predictors are right, the tories are up across the province, the NDP is further up when you compare their votes in the last election. While I wont call a tory win out of the question, I just do not see it happening. Hamilton has an NDP history, and with Layton at the helm and the Liberal ship taking on water fast, I see more Ontarians going with their traditional roots and their fellow Ontarian leader then with Harper, especially here. The NDP should take this one.
16 05 05
Weak Incumbment, target riding, much much stronger Conservative presence in Southwestern Ontario. Chalk this win up for the Conservatives.
16 05 05 Mark R.
This riding is competitive amongst all 3 major national parties, however, it looks good for the NDP. People in Greater Hamilton area usually vote Liberal, but when they send a message - they vote NDP. Ms. Phinney won this seat year back from the NDP and her times up.
16 05 05 Bear and Ape
We both have to agree with many other people's posting that this is going to be an interesting race. With Beth not running, we feel that this is likely going to be a Liberal loss. The question is to which party though. It looks like the NDP could be the big winners here since the Conservatives are running a relative unknown and they bode quite well in 2004. In any case, this will be a battleground riding with all three parties placing alot of resources here.
15 05 05 IGB
After 16 years of undistinguished service, MP Beth Phinney has decided to finally call it a day. At any rate, Hamilton Mountain offers a very interesting three-way race. From the Liberal side, it seems as if Councillor Bill Kelly is the front-runner for the nomination (I've heard nothing about Frank D'Amico, who stepped down from Council in 2003 pretty much specifically to challenge Phinney, but was stymied when Martin stepped in to protect her after the Sheila Copps debacle). Kelly would be a fairly good choice to the scandal-plagued Grits, as he is popular, has great name recognition, and a solid track record of strong wins in his Council bids. For the NDP, the fifth time may prove the charm for Chris Charlton, as there is no incumbent to face off against and the NDP offers an alternative to those who don't want to vote Liberal but aren't ready to vote Tory. If the NDP doesn't nominate Charlton, the NDP is still in a strong position. I'm not sure about the Tory candidate, from what I hear he's not well-known, but he may benefit from anti-Liberal residual anger. All this means that Hamilton Mountain will offer a really interesting race on election night -- it can go either of three ways.
15 05 05
Since Beth Phinney is not going to run in the next election rumours are flying that Bill Kelly might be a possible Liberal candidate in this riding which will be hard for anyone to topple him since he's popular (CH talk live host and city councillor).
14 05 05 TN
I must say I agree with M. Lunn that this riding will be a tough three way race much in the way that Oshawa was. If Charleton runs for the NDP it could go orange. However word has Beth Phinney isn't running again for the Liberals, and will most likely be replaced by City Councillor Bill Kelly. Although some (especially many Liberals) may see this as a good thing, we all saw what happened to Tom Jackson who is just as well known and liked as Kelly in the last election. Political baggage especially in an election where people are going to be angry at almost all politicians is not a good thing. I would still expect that the Liberals will put up a strong fight, as will the NDP but so long as the Conservative's National Campaign goes better than in the last election, the NDP and the Liberals will split the Left/Centre vote, allowing the Conservatives to come up the middle.
13 05 05 Addie
Beth Phinney announced yesterday that she will not be running again. For the first time in 17 years their is no incumbant in this riding. It is now wide open. The Liberal nomination race could turn very ugly very quickly and if a deep rift occurs then it will be possible for the tory to run up the middle.
Historically this riding has been been held by all 3 parties provincially and federally.
The winner will be the party of the sweep
13 05 05 Adam G
I highly doubt that this riding would go conservative, my gut feelings tell me that the Liberals will hold this one, being that there are many demographic groups that live here that will not abandon the Grits. Tom Jackson's success here was based largely on Tom Jackson and to beleive that a relatively unknown candidate will have greater success is a mistake. I think that the Liberal challenge here will rest firmly with the NDP and the Cons will have no success once again in Hamilton. This is a Liberal hold albeit a tight race.
12 05 05 MF
This working class, suburban riding will be one of the most interesting to watch on election night. The result last time was 34.8% Liberal/33.9% NDP/29.1% Tory. Despite Jack Layton's middle class/professional Toronto base, there seems to be an upsurge in working class communities to vote for the "labor party". Given this increase in class-based voting in Canada, the issue of Stelco and pensions and the increased showing for the NDP in the polls, I think Hamilton Mountain will go NDP.
Prediction: 37% NDP, 31% CON, 29% LIB
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This is one of the few Ontario ridings where a three way race will likely develop. The NDP certainly has a good shot since they finished not too far behind. The liberals could still win it if they scare enough NDP voters into voting liberal to stop Harper. The Conservatives could also take this one due to the left wing split since unlike most Ontario ridings where they need at least 40% to win, they can win this with as little as 1/3 of the vote, much like how they won Oshawa last time around.
09 05 05 Angry Grit
Despite being a liberal personally, I must say the Liberal incumbent is probably the weakest and most unknown backbencher MP in whole region if not the whole province. She’s shocked us before, but I just see no plausible way that the Liberals can keep this riding again. Whoever wins the seat it won’t be the Liberals. The Conservatives and NDP are going to be battling hard for it, and if things keep going in the general direction they’ve been going for the Conservatives at the National level, this riding is going blue come election night.
09 05 05 Marie Thornton
Despite the embarrassing loss endured by the very hopeful Conservatives on the Mountain in the last election, we must bear in mind that that the Tories won the advanced polls in the last election, exposing that the last few weeks of their National campaign seemed to be to the deciding factor. External events were their downfall in the last election, but a Blue sweep of Rural and Suburban Ontario, brought on by a stronger national campaign could just push this riding over in the Conservatives favour. The Liberal incumbent is probably the weakest MP in whole region if not the whole province. She’s shocked us before, but I just see no plausible way that the Liberals can keep this riding again. Expect the Conservatives to take back this riding for the first time since Beattie in the early 80’s. I would predict a CPC victory within a margin of 1500 votes. A strong NDP second and severely weakened but respectable Liberal third.
07 05 05 Brandon
Liberals won by 1,000 votes over the NDP and 3,000 votes over the Tories last time. With support bleeding both directions, it is a 3-way race right now. NDP and Tories fight for the finish line in a tight race. Since the Tories have had the highest voter support-growth recently, I would put this in the CPC column by less than 1,000 over the NDP. Either way, Beth Phinney is finished.
07 05 05 JJ
Reflecting on last’s elections results, that is a tight race where the winner only pulled ahead of the two other main competitors within a margin of 3000 votes, I think the tories just might be able to pull this one off. Despite losing long time City Councilor Tom Jackson (due to personal reasons I might add) as their Candidate, and choosing a relatively unknown face in Don Graves; we must remember the Trevor Petit win in ’95. The Cons. always seem to benefit from running smaller-profile but capable candidates, as opposed to star Candidates perhaps seen as more imposed. Expect this to once again be a tight three way race, with either the NDP or Conservatives taking it in the end. Which of those two I suspect will be determined by both how well the National Campaign goes, which last time seemed to scare enough voters away from the Conservatives and shore up NDP votes back to the Liberals, and on how many frustrated Liberals decide to just stay at home on election day, giving the Conservatives an Higher edge. When election day comes around, expect the final showdown to be between the Conservatives and the NDP. My Prediction: Conservatives 34%, NDP 33%, Liberals 31%, Other 2%.

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