Update/Mise à jour:
12:11 PM 21/01/2006

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3:22 PM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Dan Mailer
Irene Mathyssen
David McLaughlin
Glen Douglas Pearson

Pat O'Brien

2004 Result/Résultats:
Pat O'Brien
Irene Mathyssen
John Mazzilli
Ed Moore
Derrall Bellaire
Cameron Switzer

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 David B.
Mailer has been very present and on the ground running. He's the only candidate to live in the riding - Irene lives miles and miles away on the other side of the city and out in the country. The riding has said no to her six times --- they teach that in high school don't they? No means No!
18 01 06 bill
The will be arguably the most interesting race in the country. London has changed a lot in the last decade; same-sex marriage is pretty much a non-issue. For example, the London-North-Centre Conservative candidate got bood by *Catholic* high school students when he said he opposed same-sex marriage. A loss of Liberal votes to both the NDP and the Conservatives hurts their prospects. London's most working-class riding is unlikely to go Conservative, and Mathyssen is extremely popular. I'm predicting an NDP win with less than 35% of the vote.
17 01 05 PB
This has come down to a 2-way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. I don't think anyone would have predicted this back in November, but the winner will be the party that is more effective at scavaging the carcass of the Liberal party. The latest democraticspace projection (Jan. 17) has the 3 main parties shifting totals from last time, with the NDP claiming the 15K that the Liberals had in 2004, the Conservatives taking over the 12K total of the NDP, and the Liberals falling back to the Conservative's 10K total.
One clear advantage for the NDP: while the Conservatives also have their sights set on picking up London North Centre and West, the NDP can concentrate all of its resources on GOTV in London-Fanshawe.
16 01 06 Alan Smithee
This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting ridings in Canada. Mailer is an unknown quantity piggybacking a surging national Tory campaign, Pearson is a fresh face in a riding that has gone Liberal for a long time, and Mathyssen is a familiar NDP candidate that often polls 10% above the party in this riding. The polls should come right down to the wire here. I think it will be hard for any new Liberal candidate to take a southern Ontario riding, which means that the race is essentially between a strong local Dipper and a strong national Tory campaign. It could go either way here, and Irene has a strong chance of winning, but between high Tory polling numbers and the fact that London has never elected a federal NDP MP, I think it will squeak into the blue column on Election Day.
16 01 06 Tory Blue
I am having a tough time understanding how if the same sex marriage issue came to the fore front (which I don't think it really has or will) how it can be a negative for the Conservatives. Does anyone here remember the name Diane Haskett? Our former bible thumping fundamentalist mayor won a landslide re-election based very much on her stand on the issue. There was a credible alternative candidate to her and she won without even campaigning to thumb her nose at the Ontario Human Rights Ruling that ordered her to proclaim a gay pride day.
13 01 05 Brain Trust
When I originally called this one (way back when...) I posisted that the question of who would win would come down to whether the move from O'Brien social conservatives to Mailer from the Liberals to the Conservatives would equal the move from the NDP back to the Liberals.
I think we now have the answer - O'Brien has come out and publicly endorsed Mailer and the Conservatives.
This is an important development because this indicates that Mailer will likely add the lion's share of the "moving votes".
Irene has some union support, however a drive past the CAW offices shows both NDP & Liberal signs - hardly a united front for Irene.
All three candidates offered decent showing at the recent TV debate - each offering a very different vision for the riding and of their platforms.
Look for Mailer to win this one in a squeaker - maybe 1,000 votes. The move of O'Brien volunteers and votes will carry him over the top.
12 01 06 Andrew S
My sense is that O'Brien always succeeded here based on his personal popularity, rather than his party popularity. With him out of the picture, I'd expect this one to go either for the Conservatives or the NDP -- the Conservatives thanks to social conservatism. It's a pretty diverse riding and same sex marriage will have an effect. Although I think Mathyssen has the edge, it's still up for grabs.
10 01 06 Ben W
This race is nearly over. Other then his actually creepy billboards, Mailer is absent. At least the Mazilli's had some name recognition, Conservative votes will be even less this time. Pearson has a massive resentment of both O'Brien and the Liberal party to deal with. Senior citizens heckled and boo'ed him for his attempted answer to government ethics this past week. Seniors are usually the most polite crowd going folks.
Mathyssen meanwhile is running a sharp campaign. She has the CAW behind her here, countering the strategic vote message. She has done solid work in various communities within the riding and is reaching out to Greens to support her so we have a shot at PR with which they could win seats next time if they vote NDP this time. Her local flyers and website have good anti-strategic voting messages. And frankly she has supported working people and families here, she has a solid core support. London Media are calling her the frontrunner for good reason. Irene 39%, Pearson 28%, Mailer 27%, Green 5%, Other 1%
08 01 06 PFR
Pat O'Brien was not a "questionable candiate" as WL would like you believe. He was a strong social conservative who got a great deal of support from right of centre voters who disliked the Liberal party but as with David Kilgour, they liked and trusted the candiate. Now that O'Brien is out of the picture it is only logical that base of support will go to the Conservative candiate Dan Mailer. Add that in with the fact that the Tories are surging in the polls and this riding will be going blue on election day.
05 01 06 MS London
This appears, on the ground,) to be a two way race between Dan Mailer (CPC) and Irene Mathessen, NDP.) Mathessen has her personal popularity and seemingly endless army of volunteers. Mailer has the fortune of no baggage and a well orchestrated national campaign. Still too close to call.
04 01 06 WL
Simple facts: Liberals won this by more than 3,000 votes last time with a questionable candidate, that's a lot to overcome. Both Liberals and Conservatives are running new candidates, a clear advantage for Irene Mathyssen of the NDP who has good name recognition & finished second. Conservatives were almost 5,000 votes short and finished third. Add in the new candidate and they don't have a chance here.
Editorial comment: Liberal Glen Pearson is well known for his work with the local food bank & will receive both campaign support and votes because he is a career Fire Fighter.
23 12 05 Brain Trust
Any one who heard last week's radio debate knows which way this riding is heading.
Let's look at how each did:
Glen Pearson: Mr. "I am not a Liberal" Liberal
Common message: Well yes, the Liberals did screw that up, but I'm going to help clean it up.
Our Response: Too bad he's not the Leader, otherwise he might have a chance.
Dan Mailer: "Joe Conservative"
Common Message: The same policy we've heard from everyone else
Our Response: Nothing New, but nothing out of the norm either.
Irene Mathyssen: Ms. "Last Kick At the Can"
Common Theme: This is my last kick at the can so I'll try and sound as desperate as possible and stack the call in with as many blatantly obvious calls as possible.
Our Response: This was the biggest set of comments after the debate - people have come to realize that Irene has peaked. The obvious stacked calls & the desperate tone to Irene's voice have been commented on over and over again.
What does this mean:
It's now a race to get Irene's votes. Glen's job is to convince them that they should return to the safe Liberal fold. Dan's job is to convince them that they still want change.
This is being called Conservative because of the head start Dan gets on Glen in terms of current polling & party support, and because Irene's left leaning nature help keep more of the potential Liberal votes away. The protest vote bleeds away quickly to the conservatives, leaving this riding to be a 2-5% win for Dan Mailer & the Conservatives.
23 12 05 Jason Brown
Irene Mathyssen is going to win this seat! She has a long list of credentials, including previous government experience in Bob Rae's Ontario government of the early 1990s. Glen Pearson is an unknown, and his credentials are far less impressive, and Dan Mailer has barely even made an effort in the first half of the campaign. His first campaign signs--which can only be found on public land--just came out this week! Even though Londoners have never elected an NDPer federally, I think this will not stop Mathyssen.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
The NDP support is down from last election, especially in Southwestern Ontario, where outside of Windsor, it is a two way race between the Tories and Liberals. If the Liberals lose any seats in Southwestern Ontario it will be to the Tories, although any losses will be in rural/suburban or mixed urban/rural ridings, not urban ridings. Pat O'Brien was pretty right wing so I suspect even though he picked up some Tory votes, this was more than offset by real Liberals voting NDP since they couldn't stand his conservative views. I know many Liberals who would have voted NDP if they lived in his riding simply to kick him and other LINOs(Liberal in Name Only) out. At least this time around they have a real liberal running under the liberal banner.
13 12 05 Jeff
With O'Brien's betrayal of the voters in this riding I think the Liberals are on even shakier ground then they are in most other ridings in the area. Glen Pearson has his work cut out for him if he is to convince the riding that he and the Liberal party are worth voting for. I honestly don't think the CPC has any hope of getting the riding. Irene is the only candidate with experience, she has momentum from the last election and the people of the riding know and respect her. While Glen Pearson is a perfectly respectible candidate, and an excelent choice by the Liberal Party, it is too little too late I think.
06 12 05 PB
Too close to call, maybe I should say too uncertain to call. A major factor in deciding this race will be which movement of voters is bigger - NDP voters to the Liberals because right-wing O'Brien is gone, or Liberal voters to the Conservatives because right-wing O'Brien is gone. If it's the latter, and contrary to M. Lunn I think it probably is, will that enough for the NDP to overcome the gap from last time? Other factors - how well will the NDP campaign be able to defend itself from the inevitable "vote Liberal to stop Harper" tactic? That message certainly widened the Liberal-NDP gap here last time. How enthusiastic are the Liberal troops this time around, given that the man they helped elect left their party, voted to bring down their government, and endorsed Harper? How much emphasis and how many resources will the NDP central campaign give this riding? How strong a campaign will the CPCs run, to siphon off Liberal votes? All good questions, leaving this riding too close to call for now. But this time is certainly the best shot the NDP has ever had at this seat.
03 12 05 Political Hack
In the absence of Pat O'Brien, I am sure Irene Mathyssen's eyes widened at the prospect of finally winning an election, since sitting with the RAE Dippers in the 1990's. Alas, I think she will once again suffer narrow electoral defeat at the hands of Glen Pearson, the Liberal candidate, whose background as a firefighter, foodbank director, Sudanese activist and community leader will make him hard to defeat. Look for another narrow Liberal win in this riding and another crushing defeat for Ms. Mathyssen.
02 12 05 M. Lunn
I think the Liberals are actually in better shape this time than last time around and here is why: Pat O'Brien despite running under the Liberal banner was to the right of most Conservatives when one considers his views on abortion and same-sex marriage. I suspect many left leaning Liberals who would have otherwise gone Liberal went NDP simply because they couldn't stand O'Brien's right wing views. With Pat O'Brien not running again, this should help the Liberals as this time they can vote for a real Liberal rather than in a conservative in Liberal clothing.
30 11 05 Devin Johnston
NDP candidate Irene Mathyssen lost by only 7% of the vote to Liberal Pat O'Brien. O'Brien quitted the Liberal party over the same-sex marriage issue and will not be seeking re-election. Mathyssen is a former MPP for the area, and has built a strong base of support in the area, several times previously and increasing her support each time. Given the resignation of O'Brien, a relative unknown running for Liberals, and the sponsorship scandal, Mathyssen should be able to win this riding by a decent margin.
29 11 05 M. Warren
In one of the many 'surprises' is this election, formerly Liberal votes are bound to spill to the left here. O'Brien's past vacillations will not assist him, regardless of who or what he runs for. Having shown that they can exert influence in parliament during a (likely repeated) minority government scenario, the NDP has increased both their viability and visibility quotients.
08 11 05 RW
I live in the riding. This is not a three way race. The Conservatives are far far back of the NDP, the Libs have an outside shot, but people here are pretty pissed off at both O'Brien and the Liberal party.
Mathyssen always does way better then the party, and it's pretty clear in the local media that she is seen as the MP in waiting.
Solid win for the NDP.
Mathyssen 38% Libs 28% Cons 25%, other 9%
28 10 05 Craig
With Pat O'Brien out of the picture now, it is a true partisan battle. It is a very difficult riding to call with two key questions.
1) Will the social conservatives who voted O'Brien jump to the Conservatives over gay marriage? That is one moderate-sized faction (about 10% of the electorate) that could dramatically tip the balance in such a close race.
2) Will left-leaning Liberals who voted or would have voted NDP jump back into the Liberal fold? That is another key movable faction (another 2,000-3,000 votes) will really hurt the NDP if they lose that group. Of course, that assumes that the Liberals nominate a social liberal.
In the end, I think both will happen, and Irene Mathyssen must be screaming at this. Predicted results: LIB 35%, CPC 34%, NDP 27%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
27 10 05 Bear and Ape
The only thing for certain about this race is that it is the most interesting in the London area. All three parties have an excellent shot at taking this. We do feel that the Conservatives are the least likely to win but we are not going to discount them by any means. As PFR said, the right is united but we don't think the Harper style conservatism has much reasonance here. Time and again we see the CPC falling short in urban Ontario and 90% of the riding does NOT oppose SSM (perhaps a majority but not 90% and most people really don't care that much about it), so lets not predict some massive rallying around them because of that issue. As for the NDP, they did do well and Irene could take it as she is recognised and Layton appears to be a constructive force in Ottawa. The problem could be that enough of the NDP support could ahve been Liberals who disliked O'Brien and his social conservative stance. The dynamics have really shifted here and it's going to be a fun race to watch.
25 10 05 Kevin F
Now that Pat O'Brien confirmed he wasn't running (even though I'm sure he wouldn't win anyway - there's no way 90% of his constituents are against same-sex marriage as he claims, seeing as though the NDP nearly beat him last time). Therefore, with a definite familiar face like in the 2004 election where Irene nearly won, and London-Fanshawe voters an NDP vote wouldn't stop a conservative from squeaking in, this riding is going to the NDP.
24 10 05 PFR
The retirement of Pat O'Brien does make this a true three way race with only one major socially conservative candidate. Dan Mailer should hold onto the votes that the Conservatives got in 2004 and gain a great deal of the votes from the Blue Liberals who supported O'Brien more than the party. The right is united behind Mailer but the left is divided between the Liberals and the NDP. Look to see Mailer sneak up the middle and pick up this seat for the Conservatives.
21 10 05 M. Lunn
With Pat O'Brien out of the picture, I think the chances of a liberal win are even better. Also if they chose a real liberal vs. a conservative in liberal clothing, they might even re-capture some of the NDP votes. An NDP win is still possible considering that many people are growing tired of the liberals while Jack Layton, unlike Stephen Harper, has generally impressed people with his willingness to work with the government rather than be obstructionist. The Conservatives definitely won't win this, although I expect them to do only marginally worse than last time around rather than a lot worse since had Pat O'Brien run, he likely would have siphoned off more votes from the Conservatives than any other party since he is really more of a conservative than a liberal. Prediction: 80% chance of a liberal win, 20% chance of an NDP win.
11 10 05 A.S.
Yes, on the face of things, this might appear to be the next Saskatoon-Humboldt--a genuine competitive 4-way--with the scenario further snarled up by the lack of Sask-Humb's urban-rural divide (here, the divide's more between the lower-income NE and the more middle-class SW). On the whole, though, Pat O'Brien's seldom risen above the level of just another prickly Class Of '93 OntariGrit backbencher; and as an Independent, he's no Nunziata or Cadman. (More comparable is another prickly dissident named Pat: ex-Tory Pat Nowlan, who failed in his indy bid in Kings-Hants in '93.) Now, the NDP: they must be salivating. Having hit 30% their last provincial and federal tries, they're poised to reap all the delirious benefits of the incipient vote split--and with the likelihood of Irene Mathyssen going at it again, they sure aren't going to waste the opportunity (esp. w/the lack of the provincial-government/Laytonian-city-slicker backlash that shut the party out in Saskatchewan in '04). Except for a couple of things: first, Londoners still possibly having leftover cold feet about doing what they'd never done before--electing New Democrats federally. And second, the possibility that Pat O'Brien *won't* run again--in which case, those pesky reunited-front Liberals are pretty well poised to teach those Liberals-in-a-hurry a lesson, as they've done time and again. In which case, Mathyssen (and Layton) might as well give it up for good--but it was fun while it lasted...
17 09 05 Wes L
No contest, Mathyssen will win easily here, O'Brien has destroyed the Liberal hopes in this riding no matter who they run. Conservative candidate Mailer has no profile and his party has no appeal in this riding, they only polled as well as they did in the last campaign because they ran the MPP's little brother for name recognition. Mailer was even spotted at Layton's community town-hall in London last month, whether he was trolling for media attention or wanted to see how a real leader handles himself, it's pretty desperate when you have to look to your opposition for this help.
Mayor DeCicco turned down the Libs nomination, why become unemployed when you can remain the Mayor. Other municipal politicians would have little hope against Mathyssen given the low regard city council has with the public, and the NDP would be able to easily hammer them on their track record in every catagory; fiscal responsibility, environment, job growth, transit, arts & culture, and so on. City Council is a laughing stock in London.
Mathyssen meanwhile seems to be everywhere, taking part in all kinds of community events, and getting good media coverage. Clearly Mathyssen also has Layton's confidence, he's been in London 3 times this year supporting her. This riding is tired of backbenchers at both levels sucking up public $$$ and doing nothing. Mathyssen would clearly have an important role in the next minority government. O'Brien won't run, he can't stand the thought of loosing to a woman, especially Mathyssen and the NDP.
Mathyssen 42%, Liberal 28%, Cons 25%, Greens 4%, Other 1%
20 08 05 Observer
This is going to be one of the more interesting ridings to watch.
At this point, any prediction is difficult.
The Liberals were courting the popular mayor of London, AnneMarie DiCicco, to run for them federally but she told the media last week that she was staying as mayor. Had she run, I would have put this riding in the Liberal column. Now a former municipal politician is testing the waters.
And so much depends on O'Brien as has been noted already. If he runs as an independent, he will pull more votes from the Conservatives than Liberals--but he will take from both-- and the NDP could squeak through for the win. If he moves to the Conservatives (not nearly as likely as retiring), he'd win.
And if he retires, much depends on the Liberal candidate as to whether the riding stays Liberal.
This is one to revisit once we have a Liberal candidate and know what O'Brien will do.
09 08 05 Craig
Studying this riding deeper, I think one epic battle is shaping up...and the Liberals and Conservatives will both see one of their worst results in Ontario as a result here. The left will be going head over heels into the hands of Irene Mathyssen, including centre-left Liberal voters. The right, including many Conservative supporters, will be going with Pat O'Brien as he tries to get re-elected as an independent. It will alienate the two largest parties and create one of the most interesting races in recent memory. Predicted results: NDP 34%, IND-O'Brien 34%, LIB 17%, CPC 11%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Pat O'Brien will definitely lose his seat if he runs as an independent. If anything he will likely siphon off more votes from the Tories as opposed to liberals since he is really a conservative and in fact his views on social issues are probably to the right of even many within the Tory Caucus. I believe last time's Tory candidate Joe Mazzilli was more centrist on social issues than Pat O'Brien. At the same time his departure from the liberals will also hurt the NDP since many real liberals weren't comfortable voting for a conservative in liberal clothing and will now return to the liberal fold since they will likely have a real liberal candidate. He can spend his time after losing his seat fighting a losing battle against Gay Marriage with other right wing lunatics such as the Family Action Coalition, Real Women, and other groups that think they have a lot of support from Canadians but don't.
07 08 05 SK
Mathyssen consistently polls 10-15% ahead of the NDP overall percent. A left Liberal candidate won't take away from Mathyssen's vote, between O'Brien's antics and the national credibility issues of the Liberals the party has lost all credibility. Don't forget O'Brien's 'blond bimbo' comments got lots of local play and alienated a lot of women, as did Conservative comments about Stronach 'whoring' herself to the Libs. It's safe to say the womens vote will be strongly for Mathyssen, peeling from both the Libs & Cons.
Mathyssen hasn't quit working since the last election, she's been out door knocking in neighbourhoods this summer, I know because I've seen her. She was in the Pride Parade, the Home County Folk Festival, several peace marches and a bunch of other London community events. Layton was here the day after the budget deal and he's coming back in late August. This is visit 3 already this year to London-Fanshawe with Mathyssen at his side.
As for the Conservative candidate Mailer? I've lived here 10 years and never heard of the guy. Mathyssen's profile and solid support base will make this the newest NDP seat, a federal first for the city.
20 06 05 Craig
Now that Pat O'Brien has left the Liberal Party, a lot of questions remain. Will he retire or run as an independent? Who will the Liberals nominate?
Assuming O'Brien runs as an independent, If the Liberals were to nominate another right-wing candidate, Irene Mathyssen should cruise to an NDP victory on a 3-way vote split by collecting some of the centre-left vote from the Liberals. If the Liberals went left and tried to steal some of their thunder, we could see a *4-way* race since both the left (Liberal-NDP) and right (O'Brien-Conservative) would be divided. The winner could win with less than 30% in that case!
If O'Brien stepped aside, how many of his votes would be lost to the Conservatives? How many votes will the new Liberal pick up from the NDP?
14 06 05 Full Name
This may be one of the most interesting constituencies in the entire country! There will be a new Liberal candidate; Mr. O'Brien may decide to run as an independent; and Ms. Mathyssen was a fairly close second in the last election, and I believe the NDP has become a stronger party over the past year, especially in the eyes of Ontarians. What is for certain, I believe, is that the Tories will not win this seat!
07 06 05 Kevin Flack
There is absolutely NO WAY Pat O'Brien, if he seeks re-election will be able to reclaim his seat. After splitting with the party, he definitely shows more conservative traits, especially even the consideration of toppling his own government, to stop same-sex marriage, considered by most to be a charter minority right. Whatever happens, since the vote was so close last time, the residence will know that they can swing their votes to NDP and be successful.
07 06 05 Dominic
Now that Pat O'Brien has left the party, the Liberals probably stand a better chance at keeping this riding in the next election. The mostly working-class population, combined with a fairly large student population, is unlikely to vote Conservative and may have gone NDP. However, with O'Brien gone, the Liberals will most likely pick a more progressive and sophisticated candidate, which should help them to secure the riding.
06 06 05 J Adams
With O'Brien switching to Independant, look for the left leaning voters to go NDP instead of independant. Mailer could sneak through but I suspect Irene will be the newest MP from London Fanshawe come the day after the election.
06 06 05 JC
This could be a four way race now, O'Brien probably will run again and it will be close, O'Brien will face a better chance of stealing votes from the Conservatives now that he has shed himself of his liberal skin. There might be a four way vote split between the Tories, the Libs, the NDP and Pat O'Brien. I think the NDP is going to come out on top though. Ms. Mathyssen is probably going to be most well-known candidate out of all of them here and she will win. Prediction: NDP: 27%, LIB: 25%, IND: 24%, CPC: 22% GRN:2%.
01 06 05 Emma D
What with the NDP going up in the polls and with an excellent candidate like Irene Mathyssen I think London-Fanshawe will go NDP this time around. Hopefully Pat O'Brien's shenanigans with changing parties along with his narrow social views will cement Irene's victory.
16 05 05 Benjamin Waterman
I think the NDP will probably take this riding this year. They did well last time, and Pat O'Brien's musings of switching to the Tories might drive many centre-left voters to the NDP. With the NDP doing generally well in the polls, there is a very good chance of London-Fanshawe going to the NDP.
12 05 05 J Adams
If Mailer wins the CPC Nomination tonight then he's got a reasonable chance, but if Meinen wins then the CPC doesn't have the slightest chance to unseat O'Brien. Meinen has failed once and will fail in any further attempts. She's mearly a parachute candidate who is looking to run and win somewhere. She is still the riding president in London West according to their own website. Mailer is an attorney and well respected guy in the community. He can unseat O'Brien with a solid effort and good campaign team.
09 05 05 Brain Trust
While I'd really like to say otherwise, here are the possible outcomes & what it will take for each party to win:
Liberals. This should be the default. Pat O'Brien may be an over-blown opinionated guy who will never escape the backbenches or the media headlines, but he will likely be returned to Ottawa. His mix of unabashedly socially conservative social principles, combined with pro-Arab foreign policy positions will equate his re-election. Expect it is be closer this time, but I think the most likely outcome is his winning.
NDP. Voted (by me, so they had a clear majority of the votes) the most likely to knock off Pat O'Brien, they always run strong in this area of the city, boosted by the blue collar workers & college students who populate much of this riding. I would expect that they should peal away a few thousand votes from Pat this time. The question will be whether he also peels some away from the Conservative candidate.
Conservative. There has to be a convergence of two factors for the Conservatives to win: a very strong likable candidate & a blue wave across the "Urban Southwestern Ontario" ridings. With Dan Mailer & Marian Meinen running for the nomination, both of whom are personable candidates who have the potential to shine, this could come down to the strength of their ground game offering a "sleeper" campaign win, though it is a long shot. Could this one blue only if the Conservatives go up 10 points in Ontario at the expense of the Libs (direct 1 to 1 move of support).
If I was to guess at this point, I would lean Liberal, but my gut says this could be a very close race with the NDP not far behind, and the Conservatives as sleeper possibilities.
08 05 05 Aric H
I don't think the Conservatives can quite take this seat. It will remain somewhat out of reach for them. As for the Liberals, Pat O'Brien's conservative views are liked by some here and not by others. Irene Mathyssen did reasonably well last year and could win if the NDP vote in Ontario remains stable or goes up a bit and the Liberal vote does not. I heard from someone I spoke to in the NDP that she will be running again as she is viewed as the best candidate, but it is true that she has run more than once before and not won federally yet. I suspect the Liberals still have a slight edge here at the moment, but the NDP will still have a chance at it.
05 05 05 Rob M.
I believe this riding will turf Pat O'Brien, since he acts like a Conservative and pretends to be a Liberal. Mostly from his recent flip-flop on whether to switch sides from Liberal to Conservative to Independent. Coupled with a Conservative candidate who will not do well in the riding, either Dan Mailer, or Marian Meinen(a former Alliance candidate in the 2003 Perth-Middlesex By-Election), who had swasitkas sprayed on her signs during the campaign. Finally all signs point to strong NDP support within the riding,especially in the east end of London, and a strong, visible candidate in most likely Irene Mathyssen will win and give the NDP the victory they so well deserve.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is generally a working class area so an NDP win is possible, especially considering that Pat O'Brien is pretty right wing for a liberal so many left-leaning liberals will go NDP. At the same time, his Conservative views will probably not hurt him a lot since this will be made up by gaining support from some Conservative supporters. This is not a Conservative riding, but they could come up the middle and take it like they did in the 1999 provincial election if the liberals and NDP split the non-conservative vote. Also this riding has a large Muslim community who don't like the Conservatives rabidly pro-Bush, Pro-American positions, but at the same are strong opponents of same-sex marriage, which will certainly help Pat O'Brien.
04 05 05 Craig
This is, as usual, difficult riding to predict. As of now, this is a nearly even 3-way race. There are several factors that could come into play though:
1. It is assumed that Irene Mathyssen will run yet again for the NDP. She will likely draw away some of the left-leaning Liberal voters who realize that Pat O'Brien is well to the right of the party as a whole. However, her losing history will hurt her badly and prevent her from taking the seat easily.
2. Will O'Brien cross the floor? That would change the dynamics and make this a real 2-way race, eliminating the Liberals. With the gay marriage bill expected to be rushed, that is still possible.
3. This always produces close 3-way races. Expect another one.
Predicted results (could change based on O'Brien): LIB 33%, NDP 32%, CPC 31%, GRN 4%.

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