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Parkdale-High Park
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Beverly Bernardo
Sarmite Sam Bulte
Lorne Gershuny
Jurij Klufas
Peggy Nash
Terry Parker
Robert L. Rishchynski

Hon. Sarmite Bulte

2004 Result/Résultats:
Sarmite (Sam) Bulte
Peggy Nash
Jurij Klufas
Neil Spiegel
Terry Parker
Lorne Gershuny

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Victor A.
Sam Bulte will hang onto this one. It is obviously the NDP target but I don't think they have what it takes to actually win it, not yet. Although with all this gentrification process that some people are talking about I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP actually picked it up in one or two Federal elections. Peggy Nash is a strong candidate but I'm afraid the Liberal machine is still in full swing in the city of Toronto and therefore Sam should be elected with no major difficulty. 3000 voters or over.
16 01 06 an honest (CPC) opinion
Nash - hands down. There's been some heavy media coverage and blogging weighing in against Ms. Bulte recently - it seems to be taking its toll on her. I was at the last few all-candidate meetings and the impression that I'm getting is that she's reeling - she appears visibly shaken. At these meetings the nasty comments (ire) from the community, usually reserved for the Conservative candidate, have been levied squarely against the Liberal candidate and her party's scandal-plagued years in power. I understand that not too many people show up to these All Candidate meetings, but if they're any indicator whatsoever of how drastically there has been a shift in opinion about the Liberal party... Bulte's done for.
Also, its a sea of orange on the lawns out there. She's not my candidate, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a decisive NDP victory... by at least 3000 votes.
16 01 06 Tom Parkin
What Ms Nash very clearly said at the All-Candidate meeting (I was there too) was that in *this* election she is only accepting individual donations.
16 01 06 JS
Before the Reform split the conservative vote this riding was always a battle between the Liberals and PCs, with the NDP coming in a strong third. I see that my neighbours who previously had NDP signs and some who had Liberal signs are now sporting Klufas signs. I predict that Klufas will come a respectable second to Bulte.
16 01 06 Bear and Ape
Up to this point we were certain that the Liberals would keep this with the NDP pulling in a strong second. However now that the CPC has reportedly gained strength in Toronto proper, the CPC should be able to pull enough votes from the Liberals to allow a narow NDP win. The NDP needn't worry about Layton in his riding, thus can put more energy into this riding, Trinity-Spadina and Beaches-East York. Layton should emphasise in the last week of campaign that Martin's 11th hour NDP-voters-beware-Harper-he'll eat your childeren or something like that speech only got CPC members elected. Ya never know, Martin may reiterate this tactic again, Layton needs to beat him to the punch.
13 01 06 AC
I was at the Runnymede United Church all candidates debate the other night. Peggy Nash claimed that she only receives donations from individuals. Members of the audience challenged her. I checked the Elections Canada report on donations to political parties and here is what I found out. In 2004 Nash received nearly $3000 from four unions, including of course, the CAW.
11 01 06 MJL
Things might be closer than I previously predicted, however, the Liberals do remain quite strong in the 416. The Liberals may be down nationally, but much of their decline is in the rest of Ontario. At the same time, I can definitely say from the sign war that the NDP is kicking ass in Roncesvales Village (but not doing very well in Parkdale proper) - while the Green party is a pale shadow of its former self without Neil Spiegel. That said, I think the Liberal attack ads will help drive Dippers into the Liberal camp (despite how erroneous and unstrategic strategic voting is in Parkdale-High Park).
To fiddler, while I continue to call this one for the Liberals, I think it is the utter height of idiocy to claim that Nash has put the nail in her coffin over the copyright issue. While Parkdale-High Park has a large artistic community, it is not one that suffers particularly from copyright violations (which tend to hit bigger media). Furthermore, the argument that Nash et al are using isn't necessarily that copyright protection is bad, but that it is problematic for a prospective heritage minister to be getting big donations (Bulte is among the best-funded MP's) from big copyright - which she is going to have to legislate.
06 01 06 fiddler
As far as I am concerned Peggy Nash has put the final nail in her coffin. By raising the issue of copyright law protection she has firmly put herself in the camp of the academic rip-off team of Michael Geist and company, and against every artist, musician, composer, and author in this riding. In every election since Sam Bulte's first the large arts community in this riding has been torn between it's usual lefty-leaning and Sam's obvious arts world cred.
06 01 06 JVS
I don't see this fundraisr as that big a deal - people raise money for many candidates. They gave money to Bev Oda the Tory. Organized BIG LABOUR has funded the NDP for decades.
05 01 06 ps
The Parkdale riding has been rocked over the past few days by allegations against Sam Bulte regarding a fundraising event to be held four days before the election that is being sponsored by the recording industry. The issue figured prominently at the candidates meeting this week and has received national and local press coverage (http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/ELXN_bulte_fundraiser_060105/). In a close race, this controversy may be enough to swing the riding to Peggy Nash.
29 12 05 MH
In 2004 Peggy Nash and her team pushed the NDP vote to previously unknown heights in this riding. It seems likely that this was their best shot at winning Parkdale-High Park, but they have a chance in 2006 IF support for the Liberals declines somewhat. The Conservatives are once again a negligible force here, but any increase in their support will come largely at the expense of the Liberals. This is probably the NDP's best hope. Barring such a development, Sarmite Bulte will keep the seat.
29 12 05 MG
In response to all the demographic theorizing that NDP supporters seem to revel in there is only one relevant question. What change has happened since the last election 18 months ago? Answer not much.
Further, I don't know what part of the riding those pundits live in but the dominant change in this riding over the last ten years is the arrival of immigrants from China, Tibet, South Asia, and former Soviet dominated countries. It may not be as visibile as new condos but when you go into the shops on Bloor and Roncesvalles those are the languages you hear more and more. Guess what, these people vote Liberal! For two reasons, Liberal policies are what brought them to this country, and Liberal policies are what will bring their relatives to this country. The Liberal party is the only one with a clear and consistent objective over many years of growing our population through immigration.
27 12 05 Tom Parkin
Terminator offers interesting insights into the dynamics of the local election. I would sugggest the following explanation for the increase in the number of votes cast: People have a sense of when their vote will matter and if it won't, many will allocate their free time to other priorities.
In 2000 the NDP wasn't in the race and voters knew it. In 2004 a lot of people in P-HP (where I live) were openly wondering whether Nash could win. They saw the NDP was making a competitive election. In 2004 many emboldened New Democrats and many fearful Liberals saw a reason to invest their time in a vote. My gut would suggest to me that in these locally competitive races, it is the challenger's voters who change their behaviour (choosing whether to bother voting or not) more frequently.
In 2006, people in P-HP know that Nash could win -- the only question is whether she will win.
The demographic changes (referred to further below) taking place in Parkdale, High Park and Bloor West Village definitely do help the NDP. In my part of the riding European-born, Catholic conservative, working-class residents who settled here in the 1950s are retiring and selling their homes (for a tidy sum, lucky for them!) to Canadian-born, mixed heritage, higher income families. But these people have a different value set than the same demographic in the further outlying parts of the city -- they value neighbours, patronizing local business, the TTC, etc. and choose to live in a smaller home in a downtown neighbourhood. They are open to voting NDP if it will benefit them, their neighbourhood, their schools and their City. With Layton getting Mayor David Miller (a resident of the riding and a past NDP candidate) $100 million for the TTC in the April budget, these folks got an object lesson in how they can benefit from a strong NDP parliamentarly presence.
These are the reasons Nash will do well on Jan 23. Will she win? If the Provincial spread between the Liberals and the NDP is less than 25 points, she probably will.
26 12 05 M. Lunn
I think Sarmite Bulte will win again. Although the NDP did well last time, their support is largely concentrated in the Parkdale portion, while the High Park portion tends to be more centre-right (will still go Liberal, as even most right wingers in Toronto can't stand Stephen Harper). That means the NDP has more or less hit their ceiling in support, while the Tories are a non-factor as they are in every other 416 riding.
26 12 05 td
I was going to give this one to the NDP until I saw that Peggy Nash works for the CAW, with all the layoffs mentioned by a previous poster and the fact that CAW head, Buzz Hargrove, has said he's supporting the Liberals means a Liberal win here.
24 12 05 AS
Terminator: That is a very interesting post. It would be interesting to compare your analysis to the number of same day registrations that occurred in Parkdale-Highpark. According to Elections Canada over 4500 voters registered to vote on election day, double the average of ridings in Canada. So, I guess all or most of those same day registrations must have voted NDP. Amazing! In yesterdays Toronto Star there was an article about voting irregularities in Trinty-Spadina, also alleged to be related to unusually high same day registrations. I wonder what the stats are for Toronto-Danforth. Could there be a correlation?
18 12 05 Terminator
Parkdale-High Park is very strange in that the number of electors in the 2004 election was greater than the number of electors in the 2000 election.
In most ridings, overall turnout went down. Peggy Nash must have run a phenomenal campaign there in 2004. Here are some statistics from the House of Commons web site.
Election 1997:
Total vote: 42859
Sarmite Bulte, Liberal: 20692 /42859 = 48.27%
Paul Schmidt, NDP: 8762 /42859 = 20.44%
Election 2000:
Total vote: 41848 : Decrease from 1997: 2.35%
Sarmite Bulte, Liberal: 20676 /41848 = 49.41%
Paul Schmidt, NDP: 7947 /41848 = 18.99%
Election 2004:
Total vote: 46912 : Increase from 2000: 12.10%
Sarmite Bulte, Liberal: 19727 /46912 = 42.05%
Peggy Nash, NDP: 16201 / 46912 = 34.53%
Not only did Peggy Nash manage to raise the NDP support level from 19% or so to 34%, but she also managed to increase the overall turnout in the riding by 12.10%! As we know, the turnout in the 2004 election was historically low. This was reflected in Sam Bulte's decline from 20676 to 19727 or 4.59%. Had there been another NDP candidate and not Peggy Nash, their vote would have likely declined by the same amount to around 7589. Instead, Peggy Nash polled 16,201!
We know the NDP targeted the riding, and they were very successful in increasing the overall turnout and the NDP vote. If the riding had been like any other, turnout would have declined by about 5%. This would have meant a total number of electors of about 40,000. Instead, it was 46,912. Not only did the NDP increase the number of electors by about 7,000, but they managed to get every single one of them to vote NDP!
12 12 05
The last poster was inherently correct, in their assessment. Peggy Nash did quite well last time, because many (and I say this with a fair amount of conviction having sampled voter sentiment while working on the Green campaign) people in the riding felt that she was a potential "breakthrough" candidate since she was "high profile" with a large, mobilized (and often dirty) trucked-in campaign support team; but it still wasn't enough. Beware the fallacy of pinning too much hope on this being a long-term trend. I will actually offer up that the NDP actually stole some soft Green votes and not the reverse, because of this anticipation (a real shame, but true). If the Greens stood a real chance at significant (and not just in the symbolic sense) numbers, the NDP would probably finish 3rd in this riding.
The growth segments in P-HP (i.e. Roncesvalles, the gentrified streets in Parkdale and the splashes of condos along Bloor West) are young, socially-minded and middle-class (they love issues like the sustainable development, social equity and the dream of grassroots government, not labour) but let's be fair; they aren't growing that fast and they are going to age and change as they do.
11 12 05 Mike Fortini
At the end of the day - Parkdale High Park is a Liberal stronghold within the GTA. After the last election, the NDP has definitely improved their presence in this riding, but the fact remains that outside of pickups in certain areas of the riding, there are still large pockets that the NDP cannot break into, namely Swansea, and anything within walking distance of the Humber River. I don't think the CAW factor really comes into play in this riding, as previous people have suggested. When push comes to shove there is probably only one NDPer who could win this riding federally and that is Mayor David Miller. Time to take this one out of the Too Close To Call column.
08 12 05 IDM
I don't pretend to know all the infinite details of demographics and so on in this riding, but I wonder why people think that the NDP would fare better this time than they did last time? They practically busted a blood vessel going all out, waging a massive campaign, and I have no doubt they did everything they possibly could. They had a rather huge army of CAW workers out, who seemed to be everywhere. With all that effort, they did improve their score, but at 35% were still a solid 7% behind the Liberals. How is this time so much different, that they will suddenly leap into the lead? I can only wonder if they think people will reward the NDP for forcing a Christmas election, or if they think the CAW will work so much harder for her now that Mr. Hargrove has endorsed Martin? What in the heck do they think is going to be so much better this time than last?
30 11 05 MF
Gentrification doesn't really hurt the NDP in the old city of Toronto. The Toronto NDP has always drawn heavily on the urban, highly-educated professional vote and working class ethnic communities support the Liberals en masse. This riding has been changing from a largely working class, Eastern European area to more of a professional, "champagne socialist" one, as left-leaning, upscale places like the Annex have gotten too expensive. The NDP's prospectss have been getting better and better. Peggy Nash did better than the NDP did here in the Broadbent days, and even the 1997 and 2000 was on the level of the 1984 and 1988 elections, when the NDP was at its prime in electoral terms. A slight rise of the NDP in the polls should give this one to the NDP.
04 12 05 PS
My previous prediction that the CAW would not be of as much help this time round was attacked by another poster as partisan. I wonder how Buzz Hargrove's endorsement of Paul Martin and the Liberals is going to effect this race? Certainly can't hurt Bulte.
04 12 05 MJL
Regarding the comment that the NDP will have to fight gentrification, I think it clearly misses the boat. The working class core of the riding that is disappearing is largely Polish, and voted Liberal (or Conservative). The people moving in are younger voters, for whom the NDP and Green Party stance on social issues seems to be more important (just look at where you see Green Party/NDP signs - Roncesvalles Village). At any rate, this isn't my grandpa's NDP.
Look at past results from the riding: Liberal since 1988, PC from 1984-1988, Liberal before that (the riding was formed in 1976). The NDP has never done better than about 20% till the last election - so I'd say gentrification actually favours them (at least until the yuppies start having kids).
01 12 05 DL
First of all, the gentrification of this riding is actually something that HELPS the NDP not the reverse. In old City of Toronto ridings the NDP is strongest among Anglos with university educations and they tend to do worse among ethnic working class voters. The whole reason why the NDP is competitive in the riding at all is that rightwing eastern Europeans are dying of old age and being replaced by professional types who tend to vote NDP.
As for Peggy Nash being a weak candidate. All I can say is look at the NDP results in Parkdale-High Park in 2004 when she ran and came close to winning compared with how the NDP did in that riding in every other election in history. Peggy Nash got BY FAR the biggest share of the vote ever for the NDP. I think that the % of the vote for the NDP in this seat almost tripled from 2000 to 2004 with her as candidate - way more of increase than was seen in other YToronto ridings.
01 12 05 King&Jameson
I was heading to work at King & Jameson earlier today and I noticed the massive amount of volunteers Ms. Bulte had. She was handing out fliers left and right and centre. People were fleeing her to hug her and congratulate her from the last election. It was truly an amazing thing. What I also noticed was tiny Peggy Nash, outnumbered 7 to 1 getting no attention at all. Bulte is flying high, and I don't see her sinking anytime soon.
01 12 05
The NDP is facing an uphill battle against gentrification in Parkdale. If the party doesn't win this time, its never going to.
29 11 05 MJL
I'm on record as predicting an NDP win here in the past. Nonetheless, as a resident of this riding, I really don't see a win in the cards for Peggy.
The previous posters jab about the CAW is pretty insubstantial partisan hackery, though I think the real problem with Peggy is that she is a terrible choice of candidate. Candidates are only worth a few points in most cases, but Peggy is worth zero. From the posh homes in High Park, to dirilect Parkdale, neither has any particular empathy with the auto workers Peggy Nash may has helped in the past.
Secondly, it will be bandided around "ooh the Liberals will lose because of the sponsorship scandal." The thing is that the revelations of Gomery were exactly what was expected last time round.
Thirdly, this is a riding where anybody-but-Harper is a winning candidate. Seconding a Conservative motion to bring down Martin won't win the NDP points here, in fact it will harm them.
Fourthly, the Green Party actually has money now. They may even be in the leader's debate. Will they win here? No. But they'd be stupid not to invest some money in getting ego-satisfying results in this riding. Yes the greens are actually pretty right-wing, but that's actually perfect for the "trendy hipsters" moving into Roncesvalles (who might otherwise vote NDP). Anyways, everybody assumes that Green means left-wing.
Fifthly, the NDP has other high-profile races to worry about in the GTA. Marilyn Churley will draw off the resources that Jack Layton's easier time in Toronto-Danforth free up.
29 11 05 Trevor
This riding is an interesting mix of older Canadians of Eastern Europeans origin and younger, higher income families who have recently moved into the riding. Although the incumbent appeals to the former group, the fact that she has been MP in the riding since 1997 and very much part of the Gomery-tainted Chrétien regime, will sway left leaning voters to the NDP. It is important to note that the threat of a Tory coup in this riding is limited. Traditional scare tactics and the need for a 'strategic vote' for the Liberals will not play a factor. These two factors will play an important role in pushing Peggy Nash's numbers up.
26 11 05 full name
I believe Sarmite Bulte will win because of the ethnic vote, and the fact that this riding has considerable wealthy people that really can't stomach the NDP and will switch their votes from the Conservatives to the Liberals if need be. (even though the more NDP seats the better it is for the Conservatives)
22 11 05 PS
I wonder how the GM and Ford layoffs will effect Peggy Nash. Last time she relied heavily on the CAW for campaign workers from all over the province. I wonder if they will be so willing to work and vote for her this time.
19 11 05 NS
Bulte has made some serious strides over the last months. She has spoken out for the CBC voice (before any other MP would) and has been recently appointed as Parliamentary Secretary to both Heritage and Industry (focusing on Women). I recently read her mail piece and was quite impressed. I'm hoping for a Bulte-win for the fourth straight Election in a row.
Looks like Nash will be losing on a day that it was again 'supposed' to be happy for her. Lost on her birthday last year, and now it'll be on Christmas. Got to feel sorry for her. NOT.
05 07 05 L. Anderson
If there's an NDP pickup in Toronto, it's Parkdale. Although David Miller municipally represented only the north "High Park" half of this riding, it means that many people are predisposed to consider the NDP to be moderates.
A major wild card was just removed with the highly organized Parkdale High Park Greens losing their nominated candidate Hayley Easto, the Greens' former womens' issues critic. Her resignation letter was extremely pointed and condemned literally everything the party had done since its 2004 electoral breakthrough. She will probably not return to the Greens, may even shift parties to the NDP, unless and until Jim Harris goes. This is just one of the many ways in which Harris has stunted the Greens in Toronto. This is good news for the NDP which usually sees the Greens as straying NDPers (less true every year). They will be chasing Easto's votes and suppressing the Green vote with her statements on the record.
The Liberal is weak and no significant public profile.
Miller specifically endorsed Peggy Nash last time, and will do so again.
This is an ABC (Anyone But Conservative) riding so with Miller's endorsement, Easto's dropout, and a lack of any Liberal claim to fame or power, it goes NDP almost for sure.
03 06 05 A.S.
It'll be a Liberal vs NDP race for sure; but a minor story in recent years has been the apparent rise of a true-blue Green machine under Neil Spiegel, as if Roncy wanted to be Wolseley or something. Fuelled by an opposition vacuum facing Gerard Kennedy, Spiegel almost looked to have second-place momentum provincially in '03--in the end, he got just under 7%, a solid fourth (albeit the party's best in the 416), but enough for him to make an even more aggressive federal bid in '04. But for all his efforts, his share remained bogged at below-7%; Jack'n'Peggy's NDP Mystery Machine stole Spiegel's federal momentum. Coupled with such things as Adrienne Carr's BC flatline, it goes to show you that short of electoral reform, there's limits to the Green-electorate hinterland--and nothing highlights those limits so much as a strong NDP...
09 05 05 paul westwood
After Trinity—Spadina, this is the next most likely NDP pickup in Toronto. In last year's election, many NDP voters went to the Liberals out of fear. Yet Bulte only had a 7-8 point lead.
If the liberals lose only 3 points to the conservatives and at least 3 points go back to the NDP, the NDP get a victory in this riding. It is actually closer than it seems.
Right now I predict that the NDP will win this seat, they will do better than the last election in Toronto, and even a little more support for the NDP will turn this riding into NDP territory.
02 05 05 OLIVIA
It's funny how DL had the Liberals "sinking like a stone" during last years election as well and yet both Bulte and the Liberals ended up on the government benches in the House of Commons. My prediction joins the other Liberal predictions here. Tony Ianno is the only 416 Liberal who might be in trouble.
08 05 05 Brain Trust
Chalk this one up as vote splitting actually helping the NDP for once. The Conservatives will draw away enough former Lib voters, as well as the natural shift of a point or two from the Libs to the NDP, which will lead to the NDP squeaking by the Libs by about 1-2k votes.
08 05 05 MG
I live in this riding and it's definitely a race between the Liberals and NDP. In the last election, the collapse of the Conservative vote in Toronto prevented at least a handful of NDP pickups - this being one of them. Because of the scandal, I think the Conservatives will do well enough to help the NDP squeak this one out.
07 05 05 Parkdale_boy
Bulte will win by an increased margin over 2004. She is not only popular and hard-working but her work on their behalf is recognized by the ethnic communities and the arts and culture crowd.
06 05 05 Hubba Bubba
I agree PHP will go Liberal, but Ruprecht is in Davenport, not here.
This is Kennedy's riding.
06 05 05 Eva Ritchie
Well clearly you don't read the news. Ms. Bulte was profiled in the National Post one week ago, constantly quoted in the newspaper as Ontario Caucas Chair (she was the one who announced with the National Caucas Chair that Ms. Parrish had been expelled from the party). And let us not forget that it was Jack Layton supporting Ms. Bulte in the House of Commons after her gaffe with Pat O'Brien.
As for the demographics, the same was said last year and it didn't matter to result in a Peggy Nash win. Besides what the heck has Nash done in the last year that should make me change my vote to NDP? Nothing. END OF STORY.
06 05 05 AA
Who knows who will win, people were saying Nash would pull the upset then it was all about Bulte. It's always up and down. The one thing I can predict though is once again David Miller will endorse Peggy Nash, just like he has endorsed the NDP Candidate in Parkdale High-Park in the last 8 years.
04 05 05 MJL
To the previous poster - for the vast majority of voters (even most politically active and aware ones) being Ontario caucus chair, etc. still makes you nobody - besides which, contrary to the view held by many on this board, the majority of people vote for the party not the person. At any rate, as somebody who lives in P-HP people still don't like Bulte.
The NDP is marginally above its position in 2004 in the polls, while the Liberal share of the vote has collapsed - this seat was close to begin with and should be an NDP pickup this time around. The budget deal has shown that a dipper is as good as a liberal, something that will win the NDP support from its natural constituency here among urban lefties.
02 11 05 ML
Although Bulte is generally well respected in the community and by the caucus, I think the NDP will squeak by....now that Layton's riding is secure, you'll see a lot of the NDP's resources being sent to ridings such as Trinity-Spadina, Beaches-East York, Davenport and Parkdale. This is definitely a riding to watch for in the next election, could be won or lost by a few hundred votes...still...my odds are leaning towards the NDP.
03 05 05 Not Non-Partisan
What massive media coverage? Just another Liberal backbencher who would be in trouble anywhere else. If there are only ten Libs in the country this riding would send one. How else could you explain Tony Ruprecht?
02 05 05 DebVanDelden
I don't think much has changed since last election. The Sponsorship problem was always there, and Bulte still won. I expect something around the same results. Should be fun to follow.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Unlike most 416 ridings further North, this area has a strong NDP element who only lost by eight points. Much of that was due to many NDPer's switching to the liberals at the last moment to stop Stephen Harper from becoming prime-minister. With the anger towards the liberals being stronger now, I think an NDP upset is possible, although I will give the liberals a slight edge based on the current polls, but that could change quite quickly.
02 05 05 DL
This is a no-brainer. The low profile unknown Liberal incumbent barely held on by the skin of her teeth last time and only because of some last minute strategic voting. Now Liberal support has sunk like a stone now that we have learned about how totally criminal the Liberal party is. NDP support has gone up. It will only take the tiniest swing from Liberal to NDP to put Peggy Nash into Parliament.
02 05 05
Sam Bulte isn't THAT popular. She barely prevailed in the last election - and why was Peggy Nash a bad candidate? She pulled a very impressive 35% - the best showing in the riding's history - and just behind Bulte's 42%. Nowadays NDP support is up and Liberal support is way down - so it is very likely the NDP will prevail here.
Furthermore, the demographics of P-HP have shifted in the NDP's favor. In the old city of Toronto, the NDP draws more support from the urban intelligentsia/new middle class than it does from the ethnic working classes. And P-HP has shifted over the years from a largely Eastern European, mostly working class riding to more of a middle class/professional one that helps the NDP. Remember even when the NDP had its best performance in 1988 - the NDP only got 18% here. They did better in 1997 and 2000 in fact when the NDP was faring worse.
Prediction(likely to change): NDP 40%, LIB 35%, CON 18%, others 7%
26 04 05 Eva Ritchie
This looks to be a Sam Bulte win. She's had a massive amount of press coverage over the last year or so (all positive) and I've seen in her at more events than I have ever before. As well, she was elected Ontario Caucas Chair (by her colleagues) -- apparently she was a nobody according to users posting here last year...anyway, on top of being Ontario Caucas Chair she was appointed to Parlimentary Secretary to the Minsiter of Heritage PLUS being appointed to the Privy Council. NOW that's a heck of a lot to have happen in less than a year.
Rumours have it that Peggy Nash isn't the next candidate. The NDP supporters better hope so, because Bulte's just going to wipe the floor with her just as she has done to the NDP, and the Miller Endorsements for the last 8 years.

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