Update/Mise à jour:
11:49 PM 20/12/2005

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11:48 PM 05/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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John Day Cowling
David Cunningham
Christian Heritage
Irma DeVries
Keith Dinicol
Gary Schellenberger

Gary Schellenberger

2004 Result/Résultats:
Gary Ralph Schellenberger
Brian Innes
Robert Roth
John Cowling
Irma Nicolette Devries

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 12 05 Bear and Ape
The most recent development that ensures Schellenberger a win is the polls that say Tory fortunes have improved in SW Ontario. We can guarantee that the Torys will win anything the took in 2004 with more than 2000 votes (like this riding).
15 12 05 Deep Throat
Unfortunately, Schellenberger will probably win. There will be, however, some surprising developments.
Keith Dinicol will surprise many and win Stratford. The NDP did well in 2004, even with hideous candidate. Keith is very popular and his son Sam won a seat on City Council in Stratford with the most amount of votes. He also won 18 polls in Stratford during the 2003 by-election. The NDP campaign appears to be the most organized in the city.
David Cunningham will win St. Marys. Schellenberger will be a close second and Dinicol will finish a strong third. Many in St. Marys, particularly Liberals, held their noses and voted Conservative the last two times out because of Innes and the whole Rick Horst affair. Many of those Libs will come back to the fold with one of their own running. Dinicol has already been seen out and about in Stone Town and will have a stronger than expected showing.
Schellenberger will clean up in Wellington county as well as most of the rural part of Perth. I have no idea why, he just will!
11 12 05 Full Name
There are at least two recent developments which make Schellenberger's easy win this time a question mark. Keith Dinicol will be running for the NDP and will do extremely well in Stratford, unlike the strange Robert Roth from last time. He is being very effectively marketed to the local farm community, something Roth was not able to do. And the Libs have nominated Dave Cunningham, a councillor from St. Mary's who I am told is quite popular. This could rob Schellenberger of a significant amount of support in the St. Mary's area. The surprising 6% for the Greens last time was mostly a function of the reaction to the NDP candidate, who antagonized many many many NDP supporters in the area. This could be an actual race this time around.
24 11 05 Matt
I must disagree with the belief that Wellington is a heavy conservative area. The area has voted Conservative many times, but look in places like Minto and you will find that many people are not the die hard conservatives that many believe.
24 10 05 PFR
Gary Schellenberger has nothing to worry in Perth Wellington. His moderate conservatism plays well in the riding and his victories in 2003 and 2004 have only made the Conservatives stronger and the Liberals more discouraged. Look to see Schellenberger to increase his margin of victory by a minimum of 3,000 votes.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
It is true the Conservatives have gone down a lot in Ontario since the Jean Brault testimony, but their numbers are more or less than same as in the last election and their biggest drop has been in the GTA so I don't think Gary Schellenberger is in any danger of losing his seat. He may not do well in Stratford, but this riding not only includes St. Mary's where he will do well, but also Wellington County, which is one of the most conservative counties in Ontario.
23 07 05 A.S.
Gary Schellenberger's obvious advantage in '04 was that he was a by-elected incumbent--and a PC at that, as opposed to a Frank Luellau-esque ReformAlliance super-scary-social-conservative; blame the whole Harper/Luellau negative karma for the fact that Sch'berger's first general-election victory fell short of the anticipated landslide. (The "united right" lost almost 10 points, while Grit-NDP built marginally upon their by-election shares and the Greens bagged a surprising 6%.) A classic "constituency guy", Sch'berger still *ought to* appear relatively safe; but more generically speaking, and especially if air continues to leak out of Stephen Harper's electoral tires in Ontario, the Tories shouldn't take the seat's apparent "safety" for granted--even against a re-offering Brian Innes. And the major tripwire is the main urban centre, Stratford, which under present circumstances appears terminally Harper-incompatible, and more so by each passing year. Indeed, despite his incumbency, Gary S. came dangerously close to landing *third* in large sectors of Stratford in 2004. Then again, he held solidly in St. Marys, which these days effectively acts as a gentrified satellite of Stratford--so as little as one should take safety for granted, one mustn't take *hostility* as too much of a given, either...
23 05 05 CG
Sorry, Innes WAS a bad candidate. People generally don't like him (whether that's fair or not) he comes across desperate and he is very poor at the public speaking. His biggest plus (and the riding association's downfall) is his ability to win a nomination campaign.
12 05 05 Brain Trust
The answer is that as far as Liberal candidates in that riding run, Innes wasn't a bad candidate. If you don't think it's saying much, it may explain why the Liberals have failed to win this riding in the last two elections, including with vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives & Alliance. This riding will stay blue no matter how you rationalize it, and any attempts to paint it otherwise are bordering on delusional (almost like my hopes of winning some GTA seats for the Tories)
10 05 05 CG
Brian Innes a good candidate? Who are you, his mother?
This was a Liberal riding for many years but they can't seem to get their act together locally. If they could find a really good candidate, they might stand a chance even now.
08 05 05 Brain Trust
Innes was one of the better Lib candidates last time around & still got handily beaten by Schellenberger. This time around this can be considered a safe conservative seat. Easily a conservative retention.
03 05 05 JLN
Gary Schellenberger will easily win re-election in this riding. After having won a hard-fought by-election victory in 2003 as a Progressive Conservative and re-elected in 2004 as a Conservative, Schellenberger has fought tirelessly for the riding. He is well-known and popular, and the Liberals will have a tough time even finding a candidate. I expect the Conservatives to draw over 50% of the Vote in this riding on election night.
02 05 05 RWA
This riding was Conservative even before the merge. Easy hold
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Gary Schellenberger won by a pretty comfortable margin so with the Tories up in Ontario and liberals down (even after the most recent re-bound), it is highly unlikely they will lose any riding they won by more than 5 points.

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